*Chris Durell*
DraftKings / FanDuel MLB Lineup Picks for August 11, 2017
Welcome back for another exciting installment of our daily fantasy baseball picks. With no afternoon games, we get a full 15-game slate tonight so let’s jump in and take a look at a couple of the top pitchers and some stacking options.
Starting Pitchers
Carlos Carrasco
Opponent – @ TB
Park – Tropicana Field
Vegas Favorite (CLE -135)
Vegas Total (8.0)
This slate is chalk full of risk and it starts at the pitcher position. On DraftKings, it seems almost crazy to pay $12K+ for Rich Hill in cash games. Pitch count has been a word that follows almost every Dodgers pitcher, especially since Kershaw went down. I think it is an alright GPP play considering the matchup but for cash games, I will take the discount and roll with Carlos Carrasco. Sure, he has struggled giving up five earned runs in back to back starts but is running a very unsustainable BABIP right now and is likely to see some positive regression real soon. Despite the struggles, he has kept his xFIP in the mid 3’s and has an elite 9.78 K/9 rate and 12.5% swinging strike rate. He gets a boost in upside tonight as the Rays strike out 25% of the time vs. right-handed pitchers and have been even worse over the last 14 days striking out 28% of the time.
Charlie Morton
Opponent – @ TEX
Park – Globe Life Park in Arlington
Vegas Favorite (HOU -125)
Vegas Total (9.5)
This play is definitely GPP only as it comes with a ton of risk but on the flip side also comes with a ton of upside. The Rangers have a scary offense that ranks inside the Top 10 when looking at runs scored and they also play in a very hitter friendly ballpark, especially in the heat of summer. With that said, they have seen an elevated K rate(27.2%) over the last 14 days with a league average wOBA and wRC+. This fits my strikeout model perfectly tonight as Charlie Morton provides his own upside with a 9.82 K/9 rate and he has also been very steady this season with a 3.78 ERA and 3.71 xFIP. The risk is there but you aren’t going to find a pitcher without any and at least Morton gives us access to some huge upside at a price below $10K.
Top Stacks
I am much more excited about stacking than I was last night as there are currently nine teams with an implied run total greater than five and two teams sitting at over 5.5 right now. My favorite team to stack tonight is the Dodgers once again as they get a matchup vs. another left-handed pitcher after putting up eight runs in another win last night. I will be heavy on Chris Taylor, Corey Seager, Justin Turner, and Enrique Hernandez. If you are looking for some lower ownership with your stack tonight there is a chance the Brewers come lower owned than usual thanks to their struggles lately. They do have a ton of power upside and get an elite matchup vs. Homer Bailey who has given up five or more earned runs in five of his nine starts this season. For the Brew Crew, I am targeting Eric Thames, Ryan Braun, Domingo Santana, and Travis Shaw.
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