Penn State v. USC is the star-studded, high-scoring rematch we need.
103. That’s the record-setting number of points scored by Penn State and USC in last year’s Rose Bowl. That number easily eclipses the previous high of 83 set in 2012 by the Wisconsin Badgers and Oregon Ducks. Keep in mind, this was a Wisconsin team with Montee Ball, who broke the record for most rushing touchdowns in NCAA history, and Russell Wilson. Oregon was loaded with explosive talent, including future Heisman favorite De’Anthony Thomas and Heisman winner Marcus Mariota. However, the superstars in the 2016 Rose Bowl game made that offensive showing look like child’s play.
Sam Darnold. Saquon Barkley. Check any recent 2018 mock draft board, and you are bound to see these two players in the top ten. Many experts have Darnold ranked as the number one quarterback, only occasionally second behind rival PAC-12 field general Josh Rosen. Barkley is essentially unanimously the highest rated running back in the draft, falling between the second pick and the twelfth pick on major mock draft boards. On top of their high NFL potential, both are Heisman favorites putting together strong campaigns so far. A bid to the National Championship game would further solidify their statuses as Heisman frontrunners.
Clemson’s last-second triumph over perennial championship contender Alabama was a thrilling victory that captivated the nation last year. The year before that, Alabama handed an undefeated Clemson team a loss in the National Championship. Alabama has been in the College Football Playoff each year of its existence and reached the championship the previous two years. Clemson has also reached the championship game the past two years. The current top two teams in the nation are aiming for the CFP again, and with some tough wins already under their belts, it seems more likely each day. Assuming this happens, that leaves two other spots up for grabs. The next four teams vying for this spot are, in order, Oklahoma, Penn State, Oklahoma State, and USC. Why will Penn State and USC earn the final two spots over the Sooner State schools?
Let’s start with Penn State. They have dominated in every game this season, outscoring opponents 141-14 this season. Their 141 points is the most in the Big Ten and 14 points are the least in the conference and second least in the country, behind the red-hot Vanderbilt Commodores. They’ve shutout opponents in two games. In both games, they’ve scored 56 and 52 points apiece. They won the other game in an easy fashion against Pitt 33-14. Yes, it’s early. Yes, their big wins were against Georgia State and Akron. However, we haven’t even seen the beginning of this squad’s potential.
On the offensive side, superstar Saquon Barkely has yet to play a full game and is still putting up Heisman numbers. Quarterback Trace McSorley has thrown nine touchdowns and rushed for another two, while throwing only 2 interceptions. Mike Gesicki, the number one tight end across mock draft boards, already has scored four times. Just to demonstrate Penn State’s insane depth, backup quarterback Tommy Stevens has a passing, rushing, and receiving TD on the year. This offense has an unlimited amount of weapons with Heisman favorite Barkley, reigning first-team Big 10 QB McSorley, and potential first round red zone weapon Gesicki at the head.
On the defensive end, the Nittany Lions have been just as dominant. When the offense plays well, the defense plays even better. They’ve already intercepted opponents six times this year, with Grant Haley grabbing two and Marcus Allen snagging another. These two are already familiar names to Penn State fans- Marcus Allen blocked an Ohio State field goal attempt last year and Grant Haley scooped and scored the game-winning TD on that very play. The Nittany Lions have sacked opponents eleven times already this year, getting into the backfield relentlessly. Led by Haley, Allen, and preseason Lott Impact Trophy favorite Jason Cabinda, the Nittany Lions are playing with an edge that has been missing for the past few years. Marcus Allen, another player on the Lott watchlist and a potential first-round draft pick, has provided a special spark to this team. Shortly after recording twelve tackles and a safety against Pitt, Allen posted a video of himself dancing with a few teammates in the locker room after the game. Allen’s presence is felt both on and off the field- if Penn State is going to play for a championship, Allen will have a huge role as a player and a leader.
USC has not been as dominant as Penn State. However, they have certainly had tougher competition. Though they have struggled, especially against an unranked and spiraling Texas team, I fully expect them to recuperate. They won’t always need true freshman Chase McGrath to save them with a game-winning FG, and they’ve already proven that. They’ve beaten a ranked Stanford and a dangerously underrated Western Michigan team. They will get on track. And Sam Darnold will be the answer.
Darnold is having a good year, especially for a young sophomore QB. He’s already passed for over 1000 yards and thrown seven TDs. That being said, he is part of USC’s problem right now. He has already thrown 6 INTs, some of them quite costly. Yet USC hasn’t lost because of Darnold’s poor decisions. With a balanced two-back rushing attack, USC has been able to move up the field methodically and score, especially in the fourth quarter. Ronald Jones II (322 rushing yards) and Stephen Carr (216 rushing yards) have dazzled, and that is a problem for defenses. Once Darnold cuts down on the interceptions and continues at a Hesiman rate, USC’s multifaceted offense will be impossible to prepare for. The defense has to do its part.
Start getting familiar with the name Cameron Smith. The athletic inside linebacker leads the Trojans with 23 tackles on the year and is a clear leader on the field. The potential first-rounder is backed by Marvell Tell III, a ball-hawking junior safety with two interceptions and a TD already on the year. Though USC is giving up points at a higher rate than coach Clay Helton would like, they have a knack for making big plays and hitting people hard. Look for this defense to excel even more behind a more confident offense.
Those are the stats. Now it’s time for the argument. Why will Penn State and USC make the CFP championship games over teams like Alabama, Clemson, Oklahoma, Oklahoma State, and even Big Ten and Pac-12 rivals Wisconsin, Ohio State, Michigan, or Washington? Each team’s reasons vary.
Penn State will make the championship game because they will win the Big 10 championship game like last year, but they will do it as an undefeated team.
The Michigan Wolverines thrashed an unhealthy and developing Penn State squad early last year. However, Penn State’s loss to Pitt was the real blow, as they were questionably left out of the CFP, despite winning the conference, in favor of Ohio State and Washington. This year will be different.
This year’s toughest opponents will be played in consecutive games, and Penn State will win each one. First, they play Michigan at home. Michigan lost a majority of its starters, and while they are still talented, they are now no match for a healthy, veteran Penn State squad in Happy Valley. Then Penn State faces its biggest challenge at Ohio State. These two teams went toe-to-toe last year in a thriller. Penn State will win this game because of a big play. Last year, it was a field goal block and TD. This year, that play can come from anyone. Urban Meyer and the Buckeyes can gameplan as much as they’d like, but they’ll never be ready for a McSorely to Barkley 75-yard TD, or a trick pass play from Tommy Stevens, or an endzone INT from Marcus Allen. Then, a battle-tested Penn State goes to East Lansing to face the Spartans of Michigan State. Though Michigan State has improved from last year, there’s no way they beat the Nittany Lions at the pinnacle of their game. Then they’ll likely face Wisconsin in a rematch of last year’s B1G Championship. With all the tests they’ve already faced, their high-powered offense should overcome the pesky Wisconsin D. Expect Saquon Barkley to add one more memorable run to his Heisman résumé.
Penn State will be tested, but that’s the reason they will clinch a berth to play for the National Championship. They will qualify as a #2 or #3 seed and be ready for the tough Clemson team they’re bound to face. Their strength of conference schedule will help them in the eyes of the committee, but above all it will help them prepare to play for a championship at their highest level.
USC will make the championship game because they don’t have to face their toughest opponent until the Pac-12 championship game.
The Pac-12 is not nearly as strong as the Big Ten, and this will actually help USC. They don’t have to face the Washington Huskies until they play in the conference title game. USC is a team that continues to get better every day, and they will face their toughest opponents only after they have worked out all the kinks. Darnold and Co. do have some challenges along the way, especially on the road at Washington State and Colorado, but I expect them to win the South Division, even if they drop a game on the road or at home to Utah or Josh Rosen and UCLA. As long as the Trojans improve on a weekly basis, and as long as Darnold performs like he did in last year’s Rose Bowl, I see the Trojans easily topping the Huskies, winning the conference, and sneaking past the Big-12 conference champ as the #4 seed.
That puts them up against Bama. Alabama is rolling on all cylinders this year behind more Nick Saban genius. QB Jalen Hurts running circles around opponents, and the Tide’s defense has looked impenetrable. However, they have not been tested by a potential #1 draft pick. Darnold is going to use the semifinal game against the Crimson Tide as demonstration of his capability to become the NFL’s next star. If USC can get to Hurts and make him uncomfortable like they have against opponents so far, then they should scrape by with a win.
Why do we deserve a Penn State-USC rematch? Because we deserve something new. Last year was a grind-it-out, painfully slow national championship game. With stars like Saquon Barkley and Sam Darnold, there will be no shortage of scoring in this game. The defenses will make big plays yes, especially from Marcus Allen, Grant Haley, and Marvell Tell III, but they will trade blows as often as they trade points. We need new teams. The rubber match of the Clemson-Alabama saga can wait for another year. It’s time for some new blood in the CFP. I know it’s far away and a lot can happen between now and the 8th of January, but do yourself a favor: start rooting for this right now. You won't be disappointed.
