For the fifth time in franchise history, the Pittsburgh Pirates will make the first selection of the MLB Draft. Hearing that stat seems rather mind blowing. As bad as the Pirates have been for the past 25 years, they have only picked first overall a few times in that span. Most recently, the Pirates took right-handed pitcher Gerrit Cole first overall in 2011. Their three other first overall selections were right-handed pitchers Bryan Bullington (2002) and Kris Benson (1996) along with shortstop Jeff King (1986).

When selecting first overall, you can’t miss. The Pirates have done that more often than not with their first few opportunities. With the state of the current organization, this pick has to be a future cornerstone. General Manager Ben Cherington can not afford to pick the incorrect player. Over the course of his time in Boston and Toronto, Cherington helped build up two of the better farm systems in baseball. He has a fairly solid track record of helping rebuild floundering organizations.

In Cherington’s first year on the job in Pittsburgh, he selected shortstop Nick Gonzales with the seventh overall selection. Many scouts touted him as the best pure hitter in last season’s draft class. Getting that type of potential at seventh is a good start to a full on rebuild. The Pirates spent the rest of the draft loading up on pitchers as they selected five arms over the final five rounds. Building up the pitching in the farm system is a great way to begin a rebuild.

However, this season, Cherington has a plethora of options as the draft approaches on July 11th.

Cherington’s got options with first pick of MLB Draft

With the pandemic scaling back teams’ ability to scout properly leading up to the draft, teams will have less information on players than they typically do. Could that be a reason that there is no consensus number one overall talent in this draft? Is the class that top heavy that the Pirates should be able to easily find a franchise building block talent? There are many questions that remain unanswered as the draft inches closer.

Just a few months ago, it seemed that one of the two Vanderbilt pitchers were going to end up as a Pittsburgh Pirate. Right handers Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter have dominated draft talk for the last year. While they were both other-worldly dominant in leading Vanderbilt back to the College World Series, other names have poked their heads into the conversation.

Louisville Cardinals catcher Henry Davis has emerged as a guaranteed top-five selection and a legitimate option for the Pirates at number one. Two high school shortstops, Jordan Lawler and Marcelo Mayer, are also highly regarded prospects that have scouts excited simply because of their talent level at such a young age.

What to do, what to do? Cherington has some things to consider. Let’s break down their options.

All-in on the Vandy pitchers?

There is so much to be excited about with these two stud pitchers.

Rocker stands at 6’5″ and fills out a 245-pound frame. He has the raw build to be a successful pitcher. As tall as he is and with a fastball sitting in the mid-high 90’s, that would not be a fun combination to try and hit as a batter. In 2021, Rocker posted a 13-3 record with a 2.46 ERA in 17 starts for the Commodores. He struck out 155 batters over 106.0 innings pitched equating to a 13.2 K/9.

Watching a few of Rocker’s starts and seeing him overpower kids in the SEC was something to behold. Fans on twitter seemed prepared to anoint him as their future ace starting playoff games in a few years when the Pirates went on to rattle off 20 straight World Series championships.

Then his teammate started grabbing most of the headlines.

Leiter, the son of former MLB great Al, tossed the first regular season complete game no-hitter in the SEC since 1971. The Leiter-to-the-Buccos chatter began to grow louder and louder causing fans to begin debating which guy they wanted. He continued to dominate by posting 20.1 consecutive no-hit innings spanning three starts. Seeing his dominance was becoming comical. He’s followed that up in the College Baseball Playoffs, with 21 strikeouts in 13 innings.

Leiter’s season stats rivaled Rocker’s as he went 10-3 with a 2.16 ERA over 96 innings. His K/9 of 14.6 is higher than that of Rocker’s but he has struggled a bit more with command. That is something that can come with coaching. He has the dominant stuff to be a good pitcher in the MLB. If he can refine his command, he’ll be just fine.

As high of a premium as pitching is across the league, it’s never a bad idea to continue to adding to that pool. Are either of them worthy of the top selection in the MLB Draft though?

Davis could fix depleted catching depth, but at what cost?

The 21-year old catcher will be the second Louisville catcher selected in the first round since 2016 when Los Angeles Dodgers catcher Will Smith was selected 32nd overall. Props to Louisville.

Davis is very intriguing in the fact that he has a bit more pop than traditional catchers in the major leagues. Teams seem to place more priority on catchers that play good defense. Davis bucks that trend as he has enough pop to net 15-20 home runs a year. He possesses a strong arm and has an elite pop-time but his pitch receiving is one of his lone weaknesses. Scouts love his ability to hit for a solid average and draw walks making his offensive prowess even more attractive to teams in the draft.

As far as the Pirates are concerned, it is no secret that they have absolutely no catching prospects of note to hold the position down in the future.

Jacob Stallings has been everything they could’ve asked for and more. He may even end up as a trade chip at this season’s trade deadline. At 31-years old, Stallings isn’t the future even if he sticks around. Eventually the Pirates have to find a catcher for the future and Davis would be the perfect candidate for that.

Many people dread drafting for need. With plenty of awesome options at the top of the draft, is taking a catcher at number one a good move? Davis is a solid prospect but many people would consider it a reach and prioritizing need over best player available.

Shortstops would bring more youth to the system

Two high school shortstops stand a top many of the recent MLB Draft mocks, Marcelo Mayer and Jordan Lawler.

Mayer’s offensive game draws comparisons to Corey Seager and his defensive game compares to the likes of Brandon Crawford. If you’re going to be a potential number one pick, those aren’t awful players to compare to.

Mayer is a 6’3″, 188-pound 18-year old from Eastlake High School (CA). There is plenty of time for him to grow into the tall frame and continue building up the raw power he already possesses. As a USC commit, Mayer has the feel of a guy who can play shortstop in the MLB for 10+ years. Many shortstops eventually move to second base or other positions around the diamond. It’s hard to see anything but shortstop being home for Mayer.

Lawler hails from Texas and also has a solid 6’2″ frame. Lawler has a nice, compact swing as a right-handed hitter with elite bat speed. He isn’t a burner but does have above-average speed which will obviously play well on the base paths. His fielding is similar to Mayer in that he is very smooth and athletic and should stick around at shortstop for years to come once he reaches the majors.

Both shortstops present a lot to be excited about and they’re both very young at 18-years old. Lawler, however, will turn 19 a few days after the draft. Will that affect teams’ view of him? I doubt it.

With the first pick in the 2021 MLB Draft, the Pittsburgh Pirates select…

Shortstop, Marcelo Mayer.

In my opinion, he seems to have the highest ceiling of the top end players in the MLB Draft.

Rocker and Leiter would be fun to have. Both are already in their 20’s, though. They would almost need to be fast tracked to the major leagues to ensure their prime years aren’t wasted. At the current moment, the Pirates should be trying to play the long game. As much as having an electric pitcher like that in the system would be, the Pirates have enough pitching prospects at the moment to suffice. With Tommy John surgeries becoming more and more common, selecting a pitcher with the velocity that both guys possess screams future trouble.

Davis’ potential as an offensive force at the backstop position sounds intriguing and the Pirated are as devoid of catching talent as anyone in the league. Having an elite catcher ranks a bit lower on my list than other things, especially with the number one pick. If the Pirates were in the pick 3-5 range, I’d be all over Davis. But this pick is huge for the future of the Pirates.

I like Lawler a lot as well. Even Wake Forest shortstop Khalil Watson seems promising. But Mayer has all the tools at age-18. All he needs to do is hone all his skills and he’ll be an everyday player at short by 2024.

The Pirates could use a bonafide shortstop prospect. Cole Tucker seems to be exactly what he is. Kevin Newman is a streaky player. Oneil Cruz seems ticketed to move from shortstop as he continues to ascend through the farm system. Even Gonzales, last year’s first-round draft choice, profiles more as a second basemen in the majors. Drafting Mayer would give the Buccos a surefire starter at the position for a decade.

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