Kansas City Royals fans are sharing a familiar experience as Pittsburgh Pirates fans. They too were projected to lose around 100 games and to finish last in their division. Neither team is hitting the cover off the ball, nor are they trotting out a Cy Young worthy rotation. However, they are both performing way above expectations to start this 2021 season.
So what is it about these teams propelling them greatly above expectations?
Average Royals
For the Royals, it is hard to tell. I am stumped at their success. They do not rank in the top 10 in either batting Average or OPS. They also rank 15th in the MLB in runs scored and 25th in homeruns. So overall, they are not hitting well.
I, then naturally, turn to the pitching. Their pitching as a whole ranks in the middle of the pack in ERA and WHIP at 14th and 22nd respectively. Their starting staff has a sub 4.00 ERA at 3.98 ranking them 12th in the league, and the bullpen is ranked 14th in the league in ERA. So again, they are just an average baseball team on the mound as well. However, they have a very above-average 14-7 record.
So, ultimately, I am chalking the Royals success up to facing lousy competition. So far, the Royals have only faced two teams that are playing above .500 baseball. They have also faced two last place teams in the MLB in the Texas Rangers and the Detroit Tigers.
Also, the American League currently only has 6 of their 15 teams playing above .500. Since the Royals have not played any interleague games to this point, they are playing competition that is currently performing poorly. However, if they continue to be average all-around, they will still greatly beat pre-season expectations.
Slamming the door on our way out of town.#TogetherRoyal pic.twitter.com/2pgyHL1mwF
— Kansas City Royals (@Royals) April 26, 2021
Pirates Pen
For the Pirates, their success has been because of their bullpen. The Pirates pen currently ranks 8th in the MLB and 2nd in the National League in ERA. With the many arms that returned from last year this was not expected.
In 2020, the Pirates bullpen ranked 20th in the MLB in ERA and WHIP. They also only recorded six saves among 19 save opportunities. While the bullpen this year has three saves in four opportunities. This is also a credit to the bullpen as they are not taking leads of more than three runs and turning them into save opportunities by giving up runs.
Also, while the hitting and starting pitching has not been why the Pirates are performing well, they have not been terrible. In both cases, they are either really good or really bad. In fact, when the Pirates win, they are scoring 64 runs and only giving up 25. That is an average score of 5.8 to 2.3 in their wins.
However, in their losses the Pirates are getting crushed. In losses, they have given up 72 runs while only scoring 23. That is an average score of 6.5 to 2.09 in their losses. So, on average, they are either winning by more than three runs, or losing by more than four.
The Pirates are also facing lousy competition. Similar to the Royals, they have played series against American League Central teams and that division is terrible. The Pirates have also now faced three last place teams in the Tigers, Cincinnati Reds and Chicago Cubs. The Reds were performing very well when they swept the Pirates, but have since lost 10 of their last 16 games.
Conclusion on the Pirates vs. Royals
So while each team is not hitting well, has average to below-average starting pitching and has faced lousy competition, the Pirates at least have an aspect of their team that stands out. If the starting pitching or the hitting can give the bullpen a lead, the Pirates will win the game.
The Royals, however, do not have any aspect of their game that stands out. Fortunately, for them and the Pirates, the Central division of each league appear to be the worst this year. This should help both the Pirates and Royals continue to beat expectations.
Just havin' fun. pic.twitter.com/Psf7efS2WN
— Pirates (@Pirates) April 26, 2021
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