Mitch Keller had an excellent start against the Chicago Cubs on April 10. He pitched five innings, giving up only one hit and one walk. He also had seven strikeouts for the Pittsburgh Pirates.

Yesterday morning, I joked to a few buddies, “Keller doesn’t pitch well two starts in a row. Bet whatever you have on the Padres.” Turns out my joke was dead on. Keller got roped batter after batter to the tune of seven earned runs in only 3.1 innings. He went from just one walk and one hit to giving up nine hits and three walks in less innings.

Keller is Not Getting Better

You can tell by the look on Keller’s face that he feels every hit. Every batter that reaches base takes one more piece from what little confidence it looks like Keller has left. He looks visibly sad out there.

However, this is Mitch Keller as we know him. This is not new. I am most likely forgetting a string of two or three starts in a row where Keller did perform well, but they are so few and far between I cannot remember such a span.

I did look back to confirm, and his only two good starts in a row appear to be his two final starts at the end of last season. Forgive me for forgetting those when the team was so far out of it by then.

Derek Shelton's official comment on atPirates' new profile pic. pic.twitter.com/Dml0KdxOOr

— Pirates (@Pirates) April 14, 2021

Aging Quickly

So where does Keller fit into the future of this team? For the time being, Keller is inexpensive to keep around. He is considered “Pre-Arbitration.” In baseball layman’s terms that means cheap. He is only impacting the payroll by a little over $500,000. Not too shabby for those of us reading and writing this article, but pretty low for a major league ballplayer.

However, Keller is already 25 years old. I say already because in a past article about Cole Tucker, we saw how many impact players around the league were as old or younger than Tucker. In this case, Tucker is even younger than Keller.

So without fully reiterating the previous article, just know there are even more players around the league making an impact that are as old or younger than Keller. Twenty-five in baseball years is the new 35. Players are debuting younger and younger. So by the time Keller is facing arbitration, will he even be worth keeping around?

Wholesome content alert. pic.twitter.com/PZIyGGoCqe

— Pirates (@Pirates) April 15, 2021

Top Prospects Moving In for Keller’s spot

Mitch Keller will be in his first year of arbitration in 2023, which funny enough seems to be when every top Pirates prospect is supposed to debut in the majors. The Pirates expect three of their top 10 pitching prospects, plus several more, to debut in 2023. I am going to focus my attention on Quinn Priester, Tahnaj Thomas and Brennan Malone.

Quinn Priester

Quinn Priester was the Pirates first-round draft pick in the 2019 amateur draft. He spent the last offseason increasing both his speed and spin rate.  At 6’ 3”, 210 lbs, the Pirates expect Priester to bring the heat and be the ace of the staff one day. He is currently the Pirates third top prospect and makes the MLB’s top 100 prospects list at 44.

Tahnaj Thomas

Tahnaj Thomas is the next pitcher in the Pirates prospects list. While he does not land himself yet in the top 100 for the entire MLB, he is currently ranked as the seventh best for the team. Thomas came over in a trade with shortstop Erik Gonzalez. In this trade, the Pirates sent Jordan Luplow and Max Moroff to the Cleveland Indians. Thomas is also a giant at 6’ 4”, 190 lbs, and has been known to top triple digits on the radar gun.

Brennan Malone

Brennan Malone was acquired by the Pirates in the Starling Marte deal. He got an enormous $2.2 million signing bonus right out of the draft from the Arizona Diamondbacks. While that is not much in sports like the NBA or the NFL for high draft picks, that is a large sum for the MLB. Malone is expected to be the real deal and has been working on his breaking balls among his 97-mph fastball.

Consider me an optimist, but I look forward to seeing all three of these guys on the major league squad in two years. Also, I think my favorite thing about two of these guys is that they were not drafted by former Pirates GM, Neal Huntington. I simply do not trust his player evaluations based on the results so far from Gregory Polanco, the aforementioned Tucker and several others that came out of the Huntington regime. Only Priester was drafted by Huntington out of this bunch.

Keller’s Future

So can Keller be involved in the future? Sure. However, at this point, is he much more than a fifth starter on this current team? Imagine if even some of the pitching prospects work out for the Pirates. A 28 year-old Keller will not be that coveted.

Additionally, new GM Ben Cherington is just getting started. He has already shown with the trades of Jameson Taillon, Josh Bell and Joe Musgrove this past season that no Huntington player is safe. If the Pirates hit on several of these prospects and Cherington acquires more arms, Keller is out.

On his inexpensive contract we will see Keller until at least 2023. However, unless he starts putting together several quality starts in a row, he will not have a spot by 2024.

Ok Pittsburgh. I waited way too long to manage in front of all of you in this beautiful ballpark and you didn’t disappoint.

You made it as special as I imagined it would be. Can’t wait to get back!#LetsGoBucs pic.twitter.com/osDXNYQlqG

— Derek Shelton (@derekshelton) April 16, 2021

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