We’re finally here. Who should Elway select?
Welcome back for more fun. After months of digging through film, reports, statistical profiles, draft, and positional value, I’ve arrived at what is my final big board for the 2020 NFL Draft. If you haven’t already checked out yesterday’s first round board, I strongly advise you start there.
Keep in mind that after obsessing over the Broncos’ 2019 defense and watching a lot of Pat Shurmur scheme with the Vikings and Giants, these are the players that I believe best fit the 2020 systems.
For what I hope is the last time, this past year was a juggling act between completing a 27,000 word Master’s thesis and writing about the Broncos. So if a player is not on the boards, it is either because I do not believe he is a clean fit, or I simply didn’t get to him. My hope moving forward is that I can eliminate that last part as much as reasonably possible.
As far as the board itself: you will not find quarterbacks on this board, as I typically weigh them in a different manner. Each prospect’s position is based around a combination of how I view him as a player, how I think he fits, how valuable the position he plays is, and weighing upside vs. Risk.
For these reasons, you will see “fit” which is how I see the player fitting the Broncos scheme early; “risk,” being what could hold them back; and “3-year Ceiling,” which is exactly that. All three impacted positioning.
When in doubt, I tried to ask myself one simple question: “Would you take A or B if both are staring you in the face?” If there is any you find yourself with questions on, please feel free to ask in the comments, @Cover2Broncos, or my Twitter @JoRo_NFL.
Let’s get to it.
Tier 5: Second round prospects.
Whether it’s positional value, injury history, character concerns, knocks on their film, or some other concern, these players look like better fits for 46 than the first round.
24. Brandon Aiyuk- WR7
Fit: Day one competition at WR2, WR3, and kick and punt returner.
Risk: One-year wonder with a late breakout age. Closer to solid than elite catch radius. Contested catches are a question. Needs to improve against press coverage. Still figuring out how to best use natural gifts as a route runner.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl Z-receiver who makes big plays out of short throws and serves as a dangerous vertical threat.
25. Ezra Cleveland- OT6
Fit: Depth player who can compete at left tackle.
Risk: Needs to get stronger to improve ability to anchor. 33 3/8” arms. Lacks killer instinct and may never be a true finisher. Career as left tackle brings questions about versatility.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting left tackle who can live on an island against top tier pass rushers.
26. Jaylon Johnson- CB4/DB5
Fit: Early competition for boundary corner.
Risk: Too physical downfield and will draw penalties if he doesn’t clean it up. Eye discipline. Gambler. Multiple shoulder surgeries bear monitoring.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro cornerback who smothers opposition with the ball skills to terrify quarterbacks.
27. Trevon Diggs - CB5/DB6
Fit: Day one competition at boundary corner.
Risk: No workout numbers, which leaves questions about athleticism unanswered. Callow player who is still mastering coverage and tackling technique. Footwork needs to improve. Saban doesn’t teach NFL backpedal.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro cornerback who smothers opposition with the ball skills to terrify quarterbacks.
28. Laviska Shenault Jr. - WR8, OX1
Fit: Rotational receiver and explosive playmaker.
Risk: Significant medical risk. Callow route runner. Inconsistent deep tracking. Catch technique needs to improve. Needs to improve against press coverage.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro WR1 and go-to guy.
29. Kenneth Murray- LB2
Fit: Day one competitor for linebacker and special teams contributor.
Risk: Hidden in pass coverage at Oklahoma and below average anticipating routes. Ball skills are below average. Needs runway to work and is inconsistent between the tackles. Reading gap blocking scheme is a work in progress. Stack and shed is work in progress. Will overrun plays in space and needs to improve tackling form.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro 3-down linebacker.
30. Ross Blacklock- DL4
Fit: Rotational 5-technique in base personnel, 1/3-technique in sub.
Risk: Hand usage and pass rush moves are underdeveloped. Plays too high and needs to improve leverage.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl interior defensive lineman.
31. Zack Baun - LB3/ED3
Fit: Rotational edge and linebacker. Think a better version of Justin Hollins.
Risk: College Edge who rarely played in the box at Wisconsin. Stack and shed skills a work in progress. Needs to improve hand usage. Needs to add pass rush moves. Needs to improve tackling form and become better at anticipating receivers in coverage.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting 3-down linebacker who can run, cover, and blitz with third down flexibility to be moved around formation.
32. Michael Pittman - WR9
Fit: Starting WR2
Risk: Workouts were eye-popping, but does not have start/stop acceleration other top receivers offer. Too physical in routes and will need to rely more on savvy and salesmanship to get open in NFL. Medical history includes broken collarbone, high ankle sprain, and shoulder surgery.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting WR2 who can play bully ball and surprise defenders on vertical plane.
33. C.J. Henderson - CB6/DB7
Fit: Day one competition at boundary corner.
Risk: Traits over tape. 2019 film is straight up woof. Below average strength impacts ability to take on blocks. Tackling technique is poor, which shows up against run and will present issues against NFL wideouts. Uncomfortable playing coverage with multiple responsibilities. Missed three games in 2019 with ankle injury. Ball skills a work in progress.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro cornerback who’s best in man coverage.
34. Justin Madubuike - DL5
Fit: Rotational 5-technique in base personnel, 1/3-technique in sub.
Risk: Two-gapping may never be a strength. Pad level needs to become consistently lower. Needs to improve hand technique and add to pass rush plan.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl interior defensive lineman who excels in penetration role.
35. Jeremy Chinn - S2/DB8/DX2
Fit: Competition as a sub package nickel or linebacker. Special teams contributor.
Risk: Massive jump from Southern Illinois to NFL and will have to adjust to speed of competition, far more complicated coverages/responsibilities/offenses. Missed time due to injury all but one season of his collegiate career: two torn labrums, a dislocated shoulder, and plantar fascia on the odometer.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro safety who can play as a sub package linebacker.
36. Noah Igbinoghene - CB7/DB9
Fit: Day one competitor for boundary cornerback, could factor into returner rotation.
Risk: Raw, with only two years of experience at corner. Too physical in coverage and will need to clean it up or draw flags. Can take false steps in press and will struggle to recover in NFL. Inexperience shows in route anticipation. Contests catches, but ball skills are below average.
3-Year Ceiling: Shutdown cornerback on the boundary.
37. Terrell Burgess- S3/DB10
Fit: Day one competitor for nickel reps, future running mate with Justin Simmons?
Risk: One-year wonder. Former cornerback who struggles to take on blocks.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting safety who can pick up slot receivers in one-on-one coverage.
38. Grant Delpit- S4/ DB11
Fit: Day one competition for nickel duties, future starter?
Risk: Bad tackler with poor form, will take bad angles and arrive out of control, and inconsistent wrap in attempts to lower boom. Block shedding below average and will try to slip them. Played through injury in 2019.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro Safety who excels in coverage and serves as a tight end and slot eraser.
39. A.J. Terrell - CB8/DB13
Fit: Day one competition for boundary cornerback.
Risk: Eyes are a work in progress. Even after considering competition in National Title game, he’s a work in progress at the catch point. Lacks recovery speed to make up for false steps. Can get too physical in coverage. Below average at defeating blocks.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting boundary cornerback you can win because of.
40. Antoine Winfield - S5/DB12
Fit: Day one contributor in nickel personnel. Heir apparent to Kareem Jackson?
Risk: Significant medical history. Undersized with height and arm length below 10th percentile. Questions about athleticism left unanswered without agility times. Frame hurts ability to shed blocks. Was suspended for role in sexual assault, but cleared on an appeal.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl safety who routinely makes splash plays.
41. Cameron Dantzler - CB9/DB14
Fit: Day one competition at boundary cornerback.
Risk: Weighed 188 at Combine and ran a 4.64. Pro Day was faster but no weigh in raises questions about if his frame is maxed out. Needs to get less grabby in coverage, but may expose his athleticism. Marginal play strength shows up in his struggles beating blocks. Needs to improve as a form tackler.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting boundary corner you can win because of.
42. Lloyd Cushenberry - iOL3
Fit: Day one competitor for starting center and right guard.
Risk: Balance is closer to solid than elite. Angles can be inconsistent on second level, especially against solid+ athletes. Needs to improve punch to maximize length. May never be a bully.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting center Broncos win because of.
43. Akeem Davis-Gaither - LB4/DX3
Fit: Depth player at linebacker, sub package, and special teams contributor.
Risk: Below 230 lbs and will need beef to play as off ball backer in base personnel. Skirts blocks more than stacks. Played hybrid role at Appalachian State, which means it’s a large jump in competition in addition to a move to a more typical linebacker role.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl linebacker who can play multiple roles in nickel personnel, including slot defender and blitzer from a variety of alignments.
44. Ashtyn Davis - S6/DB15
Fit: Day one competition at nickel and returner, contributor to special teams. Depth at safety. Heir to Jackson?
Risk: Can be baited by play action and misdirection. Needs to refine tackling. Looks like a cleaner fit as a FS for a team using a lot of single high. Missed workouts and pre-draft process due to groin surgery.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting safety with the versatility to play all over and the range to contest everything between the hashes.
45. K.J. Hamler - WR11
Fit: Day one competition at slot receiver and punt returner.
Risk: Did not work out at Combine so athletic numbers remain a mystery. Diminutive stature with small catch radius. Lets too many throws get into his body. Concentration drops. Physicality can pose issues at line of scrimmage and in route. Torn ACL in high school.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl WR2 and one of the most dangerous space athletes in the NFL.
46. Jordan Elliott- DL6
Fit: Rotational 5-technique in base personnel, 1/3-technique in sub.
Risk: One-year wonder. Below average 2-gapper. Pad level a work in progress. COD a concern. Verbal commitments to Baylor, Houston, Texas, and Michigan in the 12 months before signing day, and transferred from Texas to Missouri after freshman season.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting 5-technique in base personnel. 1/3 technique in sub with strengths as a gap shooter.
47. Matt Hennessy- iOL4
Fit: Day one competitor for starting center.
Risk: Jumping from Temple to NFL. Arm length is below average, and will need to improve hand technique to avoid exposing his chest to power. May never be a solid+ drive blocker.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting center who is a reliable pass protector and excels blocking on second level.
48. Neville Gallimore- DL7
Fit: Rotational 0-3-technique in nickel personnel. Depth player in base.
Risk: Pass rush plan is elementary. Needs to maintain consistent playing weight after losing 30 lbs prior to career senior season. Two gapping is not currently a strength, despite tools. Eye discipline needs to become more consistent, will get caught ball watching.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting 5-technique in base personnel, 0-3 technique in sub who has the twitch and athleticism to present issues on passing downs. Planet Theory prospect.
49. Willie Gay - LB5
Fit: Day one competition for linebacker spot.
Risk: Six college starts due to multiple suspensions. Inexperience shows up in close to all facets of his game. Needs to improve at block deconstruction, anticipating receivers in coverage, pursuit angles, and reading the field. Knack for highlight plays also can cost team as he misses a single going for the homerun.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro linebacker who is a standout in coverage.
50. Bryan Edwards- WR10
Fit: If healthy, day one competition at WR2 and WR3.
Risk: Medical situation: broken foot derailed pre-draft process and leaves workouts a mystery. Not as sudden as other top receivers. Large percentage of college production came on screens, will need to improve route running and especially breaks in NFL. Catch radius questions, ideal target between hips and shoulder pads. Trouble tracking ball and concentration drops.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting WR2 who can play bully ball and contested catch artist.
51. Robert Hunt - iOL5
Fit: Day one competitor for right guard.
Risk: Feet and hand technique need polish. Needs to maintain consistent pad level. Better run blocker than pass protector at this point. Quick twitch interior players and stunts could present issues.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl guard who looks like a snowplow in the run game.
52. Kyle Dugger - S7/DB16/X4
Fit: Potential safety-backer in nickel personnel. Depth at safety?
Risk: Jump from Lenoir-Rhyne to NFL is massive. Closer to solid than elite change of direction on tape. Is he a really a DB for the Broncos? How much growth will come for a 24-year-old prospect? Torn meniscus in 2016.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro Safety who can play as a sub-package linebacker.
Tier 6: Other day 2 picks
These players present more questions or lack some of the upside of the tiers above, but would be nice additions to the Broncos roster after 46.
53. Bryce Hall - CB10/DB17
Fit: If healthy, day one competition at boundary corner.
Risk: Below average athleticism with questions about long speed, change of direction, plus click and close. Injury prevented workouts to answer any of these questions. Below average in man coverage and too grabby. Significant ankle injury in 2019. Tools for press, but played less than 20% of snaps in alignment in 2019.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting boundary corner who can press, play soft press, and play in off coverage while bringing knack for big plays.
54. K.J. Hill - WR12
Fit: Day one competition for slot receiver.
Risk: Not a sudden athlete. So-so contested catch player. Limited exposure to press.
3-Year Ceiling: Best version of what you hope DaeSean Hamilton could realistically be.
55. Logan Wilson - LB6
Fit: Depth at linebacker, contributor to special teams. Heir to Todd Davis?
Risk: Played in simple coverage scheme at Wyoming. Limited exposure to man coverage. Most of his ball production came against future teachers/lawyers/cattle ranchers.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting 3-down linebacker who can hold up in coverage and own the box.
56. Julian Okwara - ED4
Fit: Rotational edge depth behind Miller and Chubb.
Risk: Needs to get stronger in order to improve against run and become a more consistent pass rusher. Needs to add to pass rush plan. Maturity questions? Fractured left fibula in 2019 and missed workouts, so testing numbers are a mystery.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro speed rusher who can drop in space.
57. Leki Fotu - DL8
Fit: Rotational nose tackle and interior rusher on passing downs.
Risk: Needs to improve rush plan and play with better leverage. Missed Senior bowl due to flagged medical.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting nose tackle who plays key part of nickel personnel as 1-technique.
58. Prince Tega-Wanogho - OT7
Fit: Tackle depth.
Risk: Raw and needs a lot of work technically: hands, feet, eyes need to improve. Would benefit from adding strength. Not a bully and may not ever be. Arm length at 50th percentile for tackles. Has suffered injuries to both legs in the past.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting left tackle you can win with who excels in space.
59. Davon Hamilton - DL9
Fit: Defensive line depth.
Risk: Needs to become more consistent with pad level. Pretty limited sample size coming from loaded OSU defenses.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting nose tackle who can contribute as a 1-technique in nickel personnel.
60. Matt Peart - OT8
Fit: Day one competition for swing tackle duties.
Risk: Jumping from UConn to NFL. Needs to get stronger and refine hand and feet technique. Lean and can be susceptible to power.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting tackle who excels in pas protection.
61. Malik Harrison- LB7
Fit: Linebacker depth, potential starter post-Davis.
Risk: Coverage was not a strength at OSU. Shoulder injury on the odometer.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting linebacker you can win with who thrives against the run.
62. Troy Dye - LB8
Fit: Depth linebacker and potential rotational player in sub package.
Risk: Mental processing is a question mark and may have trouble adjusting to NFL speed and complexity. Looks like a safety and run defense may never be more than adequate. Knee injury in past. Reports about off-field decision making and maturity.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowl linebacker who can stick with tight ends in one-on-one coverage.
63. Ben Bartch - OT9
Fit: Offensive line depth.
Risk: Massive jump from St. Johns to NFL and going from dominating future car salesmen to professional league. Will need to improve technique in all facets and continue getting stronger.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting left tackle you can win with.
64. Lucas Niang - OT10
Fit: Backup tackle.
Risk: Height may be a double edged sword. Trouble with leverage. Needs to refine hands and feet, plus pass sets. Never played left tackle at TCU and may be limited to one position in NFL. Hip injury in 2019.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting tackle who can survive on an island against top tier pass rushers.
65. Darnay Holmes - CB11/DB18
Fit: Depth corner who competes for snaps as a returner and contributes on special teams.
Risk: Needs a technical revamp to maximize natural talents. Aggressive to a fault. Traits over tape type and his worst plays are awful. Short arms limit upside in press and shrink tackle radius. Ankle injury in past.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro cornerback in the mold of Darius Slay.
66. Troy Pride - CB12/DB19
Fit: Depth corner who can compete for playing time in sub packages.
Risk: Below average at zone spacing and needs to improve at catch point. Needs to get stronger and improve at shedding blocks and tackle effort/technique. Benched as an underclassmen and needs to improve mental consistency.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting cornerback you can win with.
67. Clyde Edwards-Helaire - RB1
Fit: Passing down back who also thrives on Duo concepts.
Risk: Sort of a one-year wonder, as he was part of a heavy rotation earlier in career. Measurables do not scream top end back. Better receiver than pass protector.
3-Year Ceiling: 3-down running back and the rare running back who can also truly contribute as a real receiver.
68. Jonathan Taylor - RB2
Fit: RB2 or 3 who can step in as a lead running back.
Risk: Heavy workload raises questions about tread on the tires. Inexperienced receiver. Better zone than gap runner. Fumbles have been a career long problem.
3-Year Ceiling: All Pro running back.
69. J.K. Dobbins - RB3
Fit: RB2 or 3 who can step in as a three down running back.
Risk: Lacks suddenness and needs a runway to get to full speed. Runs like a sprinter, which exposes him to shots. Needs to continue improving as a pass protector. Concentration drops crop up on film.
3-Year Ceiling: Three down back who is a good check down receiver and pass protector.
70. Donovan Peoples-Jones - WR13
Fit: Depth receiver who can factor into punt return and special teams duties.
Risk: Traits over tape. Long strider who will need to refine hand technique to beat press in NFL. Routes need refinement to maximize physical gifts. Inconsistent hands and will let passes into body. Dinged up a lot with soft tissue injuries.
3-Year Ceiling: Pro Bowler who can play inside/outside and contribute as a punt returner.
71. Damien Lewis- iOL6
Fit: Day one competition at right guard.
Risk: May never be more than an adequate puller or second level blocker in NFL due to athletic limitations. May not offer much position versatility as a career right guard.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting right guard you can win with.
72. Bradlee Anae - ED5
Fit: Rotational edge player behind Miller and Chubb.
Risk: Arm length is below 50th percentile for edge rusher and he isn’t super twitched up. Needs to improve as a force defender.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting edge you can win with.
73. Josh Uche - DX4
Fit: Designated pass rusher who can contribute on special teams.
Risk: May lack true position in Broncos’ scheme. Short armed small pass rusher who mostly won by beating interior blockers at Michigan. Limited playing time.
3-Year Ceiling: Terror on passing downs and sub package linebacker who can blitz, cover, and defend the run.
74. K’Von Wallace - S8/DB20
Fit: Day one competition for nickel corner.
Risk: Better gamer than athlete. More quick than fast. Needs to improve at anticipating routes. Good ball skills, but iffy hands. May be stuck in the slot at next level.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting safety you can win with who offers the versatility to move down into slot in nickel personnel.
75. Chase Claypool - OX2
Fit: Depth receiver who’s a standout on special teams.
Risk: What does he play in the NFL? Looks like a tight end and played receiver, which means new OC has a lot of room to screw him up. Needs to improve route running as he doesn’t do enough to sell deception. Inconsistency against press coverage. Long strider who isn’t as sudden as workout numbers suggest. Blocking inline would be a work in progress if he moves to tight end.
3-Year Ceiling: Mismatch weapon who poses huge issues for opponents in redzone with his ability to play bully ball.
76. Amik Robertson - CB13/DB21
Fit: Day one competition for nickel corner.
Risk: Smol boi who lacks long speed. Number of injuries on the resume include shoulder, partial ACL, and groin.
3-Year Ceiling: You remember Chris Harris Jr?
77. Cole Kmet - TE1
Fit: Depth tight end, potential replacement for Jeff Heuerman.
Risk: Needs to improve his blocking technique to be an inline asset in the NFL. Couple of notable injuries in his past.
3-Year Ceiling: Y-tight end you can win because of.
78. Damon Arnette - CB14/DB22
Fit: Day one competition for boundary and nickel corner.
Risk: Older prospect and closer to solid than elite athletically. Needs to become less physical or will draw a lot of flags in coverage. Below average at the catch point. Multiple reports about character, including talk that he’s bigger on partying than the game.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting boundary corner you can win with.
79. Tyler Biadasz - iOL7
Fit: Day one competition for starting center.
Risk: Balance concerns. Mobility is a question mark. Down-to-down consistency with technique is a question mark. Multiple injuries in past including hip and shoulder.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting center you can win with.
80. Raekwon Davis - DL10
Fit: Rotational 5-technique in base personnel, interior rusher in nickel.
Risk: So-so pass rusher out of Alabama. Hand technique and pass rush plan in particular need work, which raises questions because he got NFL quality coaching. Leverage may always be an issue because he’s really tall.
3-Year Ceiling: Starting defensive lineman you can win with.
This post first appeared on Mile High Report, A Denver Broncos Community, please read the originial post: here
