Not very

Finding the right quarterback to lead your franchise isn’t easy.

In a recent post, we detailed how only 37.2% of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 have reached ‘solid starter,’ ‘franchise’ or ‘Hall of Fame’ caliber. On Day 2 of the draft (Rounds 2 and 3) we detailed how only five of 32 quarterbacks drafted during that time period (15.6%) reached at least ‘solid starter’ status.

So, how about Day 3?

The story of Tom Brady being a sixth-round pick is legendary. Brock Purdy having been selected as Mr. Irrelevant is the latest late-round quarterback success story.

Still, how realistic is it to draft a quarterback on Day 3 and end up with a player who fills, at least, the ‘solid starter’ description?

Below, the breakdown of quarterbacks selected on Day 3 since 2010.

Day 3 QBs (since 2010)

2010

Round 4
No. 122 — Mike Kafka (Philadelphia Eagles)

Round 5
No. 155 — John Skelton (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 168 — Jonathan Crompton (San Diego Chargers)

Round 6
No. 176 — Rusty Smith (Tennessee Titans)
No. 181 — Dan LeFevour (Chicago Bears)
No. 204 — Tony Pike (Carolina Panthers)

Round 7
No. 209 — Levi Brown (Buffalo Bills)
No. 239 — Sean Canfield (New Orleans Saints)
No. 250 — Zac Robinson (New England Patriots)

Drafted: 9
Solid starters or above: 0

2011

Round 4
None

Round 5
No. 135 — Ricky Stanzi (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 152 — T.J. Yates (Houston Texans)
No. 160 — Nathan Enderle (Chicago Bears)

Round 6
No. 180 — Tyrod Taylor (Baltimore Ravens)

Round 7
No. 208 — Greg McElroy (New York Jets)

Drafted: 5
Solid starters or above: 0
Low-end career: 1 (Taylor)

2012

Round 4
No. 102 — Kirk Cousins (Washington)

Round 5
None

Round 6
No. 185 — Ryan Lindley (Arizona Cardinals)

Round 7
No. 243 — B.J. Coleman (Green Bay Packers)
No. 253 — Chandler Harnish (Indianapolis Colts)

Drafted: 4

Solid starters or above: 1 (Cousins)

2013

Round 4
No. 98 — Matt Barkley (Philadelphia Eagles)
No. 110 — Ryan Nassib (New York Giants)
No. 112 — Tyler Wilson (Oakland Raiders)
No. 115 — Landry Jones (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Round 5
None

Round 6
None

Round 7
No. 221 — Brad Sorenson (San Diego Chargers)
No. 234 — Zac Desert (Denver Broncos)
No. 237 — B.J. Daniels (San Francisco 49ers)
No. 249 — Sean Renfree (Atlanta Falcons)

Drafted: 8
Solid starters or above: 0

2014

Round 4
No. 120 — Logan Thomas (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 135 — Tom Savage (Houston Texans)

Round 5
No. 163 — Aaron Murray (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 164 — A.J. McCarron (Cincinnati Bengals)

Round 6
No. 178 — Zach Mettenberger (Tennessee Titans)
No. 183 — David Falls (Chicago Bears)
No. 194 — Keith Wenning (Baltimore Ravens)
No. 213 — Tajh Boyd (New York Jets)
No. 214 — Garrett Gilbert (St. Louis Rams)

Round 7
None

Drafted: 9
Solid starters or above: 0

2015

Round 4
No. 103 — Bryce Petty (New York Jets)

Round 5
Brett Huntley (Green Bay Packers)

Round 7
No. 250 — Trevor Siemian (Denver Broncos)

Drafted: 3
Solid starters or above: 0

2016

Round 4
No. 100 — Connor Cook (Oakland Raiders)
No. 135 — Dak Prescott (Dallas Cowboys)
No. 139 — Cradle Jones (Buffalo Bills)

Round 5
No. 162 — Kevin Hogan (Kansas City Chiefs)

Round 6
No. 187 — Nate Sudfeld (Washington)
No. 191 — Jake Rudock (Detroit Lions)
No. 201 — Brandon Allen (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 207 — Jeff Driskel (San Francisco 49ers)

Round 7
No. 223 — Brandon Doughty (Miami Dolphins)

Drafted: 9
Solid starters or above: 1

2017

Round 4
No. 135 — Joshua Dobbs (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Round 5
No. 171 — Nathan Peterman (Buffalo Bills)

Round 6
No. 215 — Brad Kaaya (Detroit Lions)

Round 7
No. 253 — Chad Kelly (Denver Broncos)

Drafted: 4
Solid starters or above: 0
Low-end careers: 1 (Dobbs)

2018

Round 4
No. 108 — Kyle Lauletta (New York Giants)

Round 5
No. 171 — Mike White (Dallas Cowboy)

Round 6
No. 199 — Luke Falk (Tennessee Titans)
No. 203 — Tanner Lee (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Round 7
No. 219 — Danny Etling (New England Patriots)
No. 220 — Alex McGough (Seattle Seahawks)
No. 249 — Logan Woodside (Cincinnati Bengals)

Drafted: 7
Solid starters or above: 0

2019

Round 4
No. 104 — Ryan Finley (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 133 — Jarrett Stidham (New England Patriots)

Round 5
No. 166 — Easton Stick (Los Angeles Chargers)
No. 167 — Clayton Thorson (Philadelphia Eagles)

Round 6
No. 178 — Gardner Minshew II (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 197 — Trace McSorley (Baltimore Ravens)

Round 7
None

Drafted: 6
Solid starters or above: 0
Low-end career: 1 (Minshew)

2020

Round 4
No. 122 — Jacob Eason (Indianapolis Colts)
No. 125 — James Morgan (New York Jets)

Round 5
No. 167 — Jake Fromm (Buffalo Bills)

Round 6
No. 189 — Jake Luton (Jacksonville Jaguars)

Round 7
No. 224 — Cole McDonald (Tennessee Titans)
No. 231 — Ben DiNucci (Dallas Cowboys)
No. 240 — Tommy Stevens (New Orleans Saints)
No. 244 — Nate Stanley (Minnesota Vikings)

Drafted: 8
Solid starters or above: 0

2021

Round 4
No. 133 — Ian Book (New Orleans Saints)

Round 5
None

Round 6
No. 218 — Sam Ehlinger (Indianapolis Colts)

Drafted: 2
Solid starters or above: 0

2022

Round 4
No. 137 — Bailey Zappe (New England Patriots)

Round 5
No. 144 — Sam Howell (Washington Commanders)

Round 7
No. 241 — Chris Oladokun (Pittsburgh Steelers)
No. 247 — Skyler Thompson (Miami Dolphins)
No. 262 — Brock Purdy (San Francisco 49ers)

Drafted: 5
Solid starters or above: 1 (Purdy)
Low-end careers: 1 (Howell)

2023

Round 4
No. 127 — Jake Haener (New Orleans Saints)
No. 128 — Stetson Bennett (Los Angeles Rams)
No. 135 — Aidan O’Connell (Las Vegas Raiders)

Round 5
No. 139 — Clayton Tune (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 140 — Dorian Thompson-Robinson (Cleveland Browns)
No. 149 — Sean Clifford (Green Bay Packers)
No. 164 — Jaren Hall (Minnesota Vikings)

Round 6
No. 188 — Tanner McKee (Philadelphia Eagles)

Round 7
No. 239 — Max Duggan (Los Angeles Chargers)

Drafted: 9
Solid starters or above: 0
Low-end careers: 1 (O’Connell)

Totals

Drafted: 88
Solid starters or above: 3 (Cousins, Prescott, Purdy)
Low-end careers: (Taylor, Minshew, O’Connell, Howell)

We have been trying to judge purely where teams can get a quarterback who can be at least a solid starter for several seasons. The odds on Day 3 are certainly not good. I have just three (Kirk Cousins, Dak Prescott, Brock Purdy) of the 88 quarterbacks selected on Day 3 since 2010 having earned at lead “solid starter” status. That is 3.4%. Yup, 3.4%.

There is an easy takeaway from all three of our posts.

The odds of finding your franchise quarterback aren’t fantastic, even if you draft a quarterback in Round 1. They drop precipitously each day in the draft, with the chance you will find someone who can be at least a solid long-term starter on Day 3 being remote.

Take that flier if you must. Odds are, though, if you are taking a quarterback on the third day of the draft you are probably wasting a roster spot.