How much does athleticism matter for a safety?

Minnesota Golden Gophers safety Tyler Nubin is generally held to be the top safety in the 2024 NFL Draft. He has good size, versatility, and a ballhawk’s instincts to create turnovers. However, he also suffered a late season meniscus injury and had a disappointing showing at the 2024 NFL Scouting combine, which could work against him on teams’ boards.

If there was any question as to whether or not the New York Giants would place a high value on the safety position, the fact they let two good safeties depart in free agency in consecutive years should put that question to rest.

But how does the calculus change with respect to the NFL draft? The safety position has been relatively devalued on draft day over the years, and that could provide opportunities for great value picks.

Could Nubin be on the Giants’ radar if he slides down boards a bit?

Prospect: Tyler Nubin (27)
Games Watched: vs. Nebraska (2023), vs. North Carolina (2023), vs. Michigan State (2023)
Red Flags: Meniscus (2023)

Measurables

Strengths

• Instincts
• Ball skills
• Football IQ
• Zone Coverage

Nubin is a good-sized, smart, instinctive, and versatile safety prospect.

Nubin was typically asked to play the free safety position in Minnesota’s defense, usually aligning as a split field (Cover 2) or single-high (Cover 1 or Cover 3) safety. He has solid size for the position at 6-foot-1, 205 pounds, with enough athleticism to execute most of the assignments with which he was tasked.

More important than athletic traits, Nubin is a smart and instinctive safety. He’s an active pre-snap communicator who often helped get his teammates lined up before the play. Likewise, he has a good understanding of Coverage responsibilities as well as route concepts and was able to effectively execute coverage disguises and post-snap coverage rotations.

Nubin is quick to diagnose the offensive play and often takes an accurate first step toward the direction of the play nearly as soon as the offensive players begin moving. That allows him to play faster than he times. He wasn’t fooled often by misdirection.

The real highlight of Nubin’s game is his ball skills. His processing allows him to quickly read the quarterbacks’ eyes and get a good break on the ball. He has a good closing burst and does a very good job of playing the ball at the catch point, which is a big reason for his 4 passes defensed and 5 interceptions this year (11 and 13 for his career, respectively).

Weaknesses

• Range
• Man coverage
• Run defense

Nubin is best described as an “adequate” athlete for the safety position. He’s able to play faster than he times thanks to his football IQ and processing, but his relative athletic deficiencies still occasionally show up on the field.

Most notably, he lacks true “sideline to sideline” range in coverage. Nubin occasionally arrived at plays late even if he diagnosed them quickly and accurately. That was particularly true if he was playing as a true centerfielder and had to cover a lot of ground en route to the play. That also limited him in run support, as even a lightning-quick downhill trigger wasn’t enough to get him to the play in time from a deep coverage shell.

Likewise, Nubin wasn’t a particularly effective blitzer if he was disguising his rush by lining up deeper in the second level.

Finally, while Nubin is a pretty smooth mover for a safety, he shouldn’t be asked to line up in man coverage on wide receivers that often. Most receivers can outrun him in a foot race, and he doesn’t quite have the feet and hips to stick in tight coverage.

Teams will also want to do their due diligence on the meniscus injury Nubin suffered late in the season.

Game Tape

(Nubin is Minnesota safety number 27)

Projection

Nubin projects as a starting free safety at the NFL level.

He doesn’t have elite range or athletic traits, and therefore might not have the range to start for teams that run a high rate of Cover 1. However, he certainly has the instincts and mental processing to be a reliable starter in most defensive schemes run at the NFL level. His ball skills, in particular, will likely attract attention from coaches around the league.

Nubin will likely be at his best in defenses that limit the amount of field he’s asked to cover on any given play. And his mediocre athleticism could cause him to slide down draft boards some. However, those two factors could make him a potential steal for the right team.

Does he fit the Giants?
Yes.

Final Word: A later Day 2 value