Here are the numbers since 2010, and they are not encouraging

With the New York Giants seemingly considering selecting a quarterback in the 2024 NFL Draft, we have often talked about the hit rate, the percentage of time NFL teams get it right when drafting a quarterback in Round 1, being somewhere between 30-40%. Well, let’s show the work.

Below, you will find a year-by-year list of quarterbacks drafted in Round 1 since 2010. There have been 43. Bill Barnwell of ESPN recently did a historical look of his own at quarterback hits and misses in the draft and provided a tiered grading system for breaking down the success or failure level of each pick.

I liked it and have adopted it, with my own judgment for which category each selected quarterback falls into.

Here is how Barnwell tiered the quarterbacks:

Hall of Famers are players who have either already made it to the Hall of Fame or have better than a 50/50 chance of making it to Canton someday.

Franchise quarterbacks are players who locked down their team’s primary job and played at a Pro Bowl level for a significant period of time, stretching well beyond their rookie deal, even if they aren’t going to be a Hall of Famer one day.

Solid starters are quarterbacks who were regulars for their teams without ever really challenging the upper echelon of the position, either because of a lack of ceiling, injury or other factors. These players might or might not have earned a second deal with their teams.

Low-end pro careers would include passers who bounced around the NFL as borderline starters or high-end backups without locking down a starting job for a significant period of time. Again, injuries could factor in here.

Disappointments are players who don’t fit into any of the above categories. They might have never earned significant NFL playing time, like Paxton Lynch, or struggled before ending their NFL career quickly, like Johnny Manziel. Teams might consider a solid starter or a low-end pro career as a disappointment depending on where they were drafted, but this group of players basically returned nil value given that it included all first-rounders.

I made one adjustment. I have listed the 2023 quarterback class in my breakdown, and added an ‘incomplete’ category for Bryce Young and Anthony Richardson. It’s too early to tell where they will land. I did put C.J. Stroud in the ‘franchise’ category.

By the way, you may not agree but using Barnwell’s definition — regular starter for one team who got a second contract — I had no choice but to score Daniel Jones as a solid starter.

Round 1 QBs

2010

No. 1 — Sam Bradford (St. Louis Rams)
No. 25 — Tim Tebow (Denver Broncos)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 1

2011

No. 1 — Cam Newton (Carolina Panthers)
No. 8 — Jake Locker (Tennessee Titans)
No. 10 — Blaine Gabbert (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 12 — Christian Ponder (Minnesota Vikings)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 3

2012

No. 1 — Andrew Luck (Indianapolis Colts)
No. 2 — Robert Griffin (Washington Redskins)
No. 8 — Ryan Tannehill (Miami Dolphins)
No. 22 — Brandon Weeden (Cleveland Browns)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 2

2013

No. 16 — EJ Manuel (Buffalo Bills)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2014

No. 3 — Blake Bortles (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 22 — Johnny Manziel (Cleveland Browns)
No. 32 — Teddy Bridgewater (Minnesota Vikings)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 2

2015

No. 1 — Jameis Winston (Tampa Bay Buccaneers)
No. 2 — Marcus Mariota (Tennessee Titans)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 2
Disappointments: 0

2016

No. 1 — Jared Goff (Los Angeles Rams)
No. 2 — Carson Wentz (Philadelphia Eagles)
No. 26 — Paxton Lynch (Denver Broncos)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 1

2017

No. 2 — Mitchell Trubisky (Chicago Bears)
No. 10 — Patrick Mahomes (Kansas City Chiefs)
No. 12 — DeShaun Watson (Houston Texans)

Future Hall of Famers: 1
Franchise QBs:
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2018

No. 1 — Baker Mayfield (Cleveland Browns)
No. 3 — Sam Darnold (New York Jets)
No. 7 — Josh Allen (Buffalo Bills)
No. 10 — Josh Rosen (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 32 — Lamar Jackson (Baltimore Ravens)

Future Hall of Famers: 2
Franchise QBs:
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 2

2019

No. 1 — Kyler Murray (Arizona Cardinals)
No. 6 — Daniel Jones (New York Giants)
No. 15 — Dwayne Haskins (Washington)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 2
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2020

No. 1 — Joe Burrow (Cincinnati Bengals)
No. 5 — Tua Tagovailoa (Miami Dolphins)
No. 6 — Justin Herbert (Los Angeles Chargers)
No. 26 — Jordan Love (Green Bay Packers)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 4
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0

2021

No. 1 — Trevor Lawrence (Jacksonville Jaguars)
No. 2 — Zach Wilson (New York Jets)
No. 3 — Trey Lance (San Francisco 49ers)
No. 11 — Justin Fields (Chicago Bears)
No. 15 — Mac Jones (New England Patriots)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 1
Low-end pro careers: 1
Disappointments: 3

2022

No. 20 — Kenny Pickett (Pittsburgh Steelers)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 0
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 1

2023

No. 1 — Bryce Young (Carolina Panthers)
No. 2 — C.J. Stroud (Houston Texans)
No. 4 — Anthony Richardson (Indianapolis Colts)

Future Hall of Famers: 0
Franchise QBs: 1
Solid starters: 0
Low-end pro careers: 0
Disappointments: 0
Incomplete: 2

Totals

Future Hall of Famers: 3
Franchise QBs: 7
Solid starters: 6
Low-end pro careers: 7
Disappointments: 18
Incomplete: 2

That’s 16 out of 43 drafted quarterbacks currently in the ‘solid starter’ or above category, a hit rate of 37.2%. If you are looking for Hall of Fame or absolute franchise quarterback as your standard, that’s 10 of 43, or 23.3%.

The disappointments category has 18 names or 41.8%. Combine that with the seven quarterbacks in the ‘low-end’ category and that is 58.1% who did not or have not yet given teams what they hoped to get out of a first-round quarterback.

This means the historical expectation would be that if five quarterbacks are taken in Round 1, only two will have careers justifying the draft capital used on them.

Barnwell summed up what teams needing or wanting a quarterback should do, and what they should expect, this way:

In the big picture, what we think of as the typical first-round quarterback is a lot more impressive than what teams actually project to land, especially after adjusting for where they’re being selected. As we approach the 2024 draft and what might be an unprecedented run of quarterbacks from Nos. 1 to 4, history tells us it would be a pleasant surprise if two of them turned into franchise-caliber passers. We’re more likely to see two players who wash out of the league than two future Hall of Famers.

And yet, at the same time, knowing history shouldn’t stop teams from drafting quarterbacks. Taking a quarterback in Round 1 is more valuable now than it has ever been, arguably, in the history of the game. If the Bears, Commanders, Patriots or any of the other teams linked to signal-callers have a quarterback they love in the first round, they should do what they need to do to land them. Just have a healthy expectation for what might happen next.

I can’t argue. If you have a need and a chance, you have to take the swing. Odds are, though, that you are going to get it wrong.

[EDITOR’S NOTE: The totals and percentages have been re-calculated from the original version of this article. I’m bad at math.]