The hit rate isn’t good, so how can the league fix it?

There have been so many questions coming in for the weekly ‘Big Blue View Mailbag’ that I can’t possibly answer them all. With the 2024 NFL Draft rapidly approaching, I thought it might be helpful — and perhaps informative — to clear some of that backlog with a New York Giants ‘Draft Question of the Day’ post for the next few weeks.

I will answer one draft question e-mailed to [email protected] each day between now and the draft. Provided, of course, we don’t run out of quality questions. The weekly ‘Big Blue View Mailbag’ post will continue each Saturday, as well.

Let’s get started.

Bob Conyea asks: Ed, in [a recent] mailbag you revealed that the successful hit rate for drafting a QB is only about 30% to 40%. (I’d have guessed no worse than 50/50.) That number is a more than comical backdrop amidst the all of the pre-draft hype that we are reading about every day this time of year. The many “draft experts” and insiders are so sure and confident in their predictions. But we can likely expect that 2 of the top 4 QBs will be busts.

I realize that some of these guys are drafted into hopeless situations, while some just don’t have what it takes. But what do you see in the overall process that could be changed to improve that hit rate? Is there too much reliance on data vs. character evaluation? I’m reading this morning about so and so’s vertical jump number. Is that stuff really important? And also, if you could, why do so few of the “misses” ever get a chance to redeem themselves, as Baker Mayfield did? We frequently hear of later round QB’s being taken as “developmental projects”. But the NFL moves awful fast, and the time to develop prospects is a luxury few teams have.

Your thoughts on this?

Ed says: Bob, this is actually the perfect type of question to start off with. It requires more than a quick, high-level answer. So, let’s dive in.

There are so many layers to why teams get it wrong more often than they get it right when they draft Quarterbacks. Matt Waldman of the Rookie Scouting Portfolio and I devoted a big chunk of the first 40-45 minutes of a recent conversation to that topic. It’s below, and if you haven’t listened, it is worth your time.

Waldman has studied, and railed about this topic for years. The other day he said to me that the NFL has a history of “being craptastic with developing quarterbacks because they don’t understand the position – no one really does – because there’s so many variables to developing it no there’s no template for a good Quarterback.”

What can the NFL change? I have a few thoughts.

Self evaluation

Hubris is a problem. Coaches always think they can “fix” players, or do things other coaches couldn’t do. This isn’t a quarterback thing, but it’s an example. Back when Pat Shurmur became Giants coach the organization was faced with the choice of signing or moving on from Odell Beckham Jr. They signed him, as we know, even though there were warning signs the relationship wouldn’t last. My understanding is that Shurmur believed he could make it work. He could handle Beckham, even though Tom Coughlin and Ben McAdoo couldn’t. We found out Shurmur couldn’t, either.

That kind of stuff happens all the time. No coach is ever going to tell his owner “I can’t develop a quarterback,” or “we don’t have a good environment for a young quarterback.” The owner is going to wonder why, and that coach is probably going to get fired.

Every coach thinks he can develop or quarterback, or that his coaches can develop a quarterback. A lot of times they can’t.

Was Justin Fields the problem in Chicago the last few years, or were the circumstances Fields was handed to blame?

I have always thought Daniel Jones could have NFL success on at least an Andy Dalton/Ryan Tannehill level. Is the fact that aside from one season he has not his fault, or is the fault of the Giants’ organization for putting him in horrid situations year after year?

Too often coaches, and organizations as a whole, are not honest with themselves. Because of that, a lot of these kids are set up to fail the second they walk into the league.

As Waldman also pointed out, there is no template. There are traits, but the guys with the traits GMs can defend don’t always pan out. Sometimes, it’s the guys with the brains and the big heart that are hard to measure who rise to the top.

Lack of stability

Unfortunately, the reality is a lot of the teams that draft quarterbacks early are teams with coaches who are in some level of hot water. Coaching changes at head coach and coordinator, such as the ones Jones has been through, do nothing to help young quarterbacks grow.

If you are going to draft a quarterback as your franchise guy, the coaching staff/GM who drafted him should be given time to sink or swim with that choice. Too often, by a rookie quarterback’s second season, a new coach, new coordinator and sometimes a new GM are in place.

Too much, too soon

As teams have watched so many rookie quarterbacks look overwhelmed and have their careers set back or derailed by being asked to be franchise savior’s from Week 1 of their rookie season there has been increased discussion of whether these young quarterbacks should sit for a while.

That is how things used to be done in the NFL. Quarterbacks were given time to learn before being asked to be the leader of their teams. Now, with rare exceptions like Patrick Mahomes and Jordan Love, that doesn’t happen.

A lot of these guys are put into situations they aren’t ready for. Money is part of the reason. Ownership can be part of the reason. Pressure from the media and the fan base tired of watching a retread or a never-will-be play while the prized No. 1 pick and hopeful franchise savior wears a baseball cap sometimes forces teams to play guys before they should.

There is nearly universal agreement that Drake Maye and J.J. McCarthy could benefit from some time watching and learning at the beginning of their NFL careers. We will see if they get it.

Athleticism

You mentioned testing. I don’t think a lot of that stuff is important for quarterbacks. I do think you need to be able to manipulate the pocket, extend plays with your feet and sometimes make plays running the ball in the modern NFL.

Second chances

The NFL sells hope to fan bases. Fans of teams who have been bad want hope. They want something to get excited about. They want to feel like the future is better than the present. The owner, too.

Is a fan base going to be more excited about a retread quarterback who has been shown the door in two or three other stops or a rookie quarterback selected in the first round who analysts tell everyone could be the next great QB?

Look at the Minnesota Vikings. How many Minnesota fans are excited about the possibility of Sam Darnold, a failure in multiple spots already, being their guy? Do you think maybe getting Jayden Daniels or J.J. McCarthy would fire them up?

As a Giant fan, are you going to be more excited about watching Daniel Jones play, or more fired up about McCarthy or Maye?

Guys also get branded. They carry the “failure” label, or become labeled as “backups” or “placeholders” who only play until the next guy is ready.

Development

Waldman and I talked about this the other day, as well. The NFL doesn’t develop players. The NFL teaches playbooks and schemes. If guys want to get better at their craft, they need to have the drive and the know-how to do that on their own time.

Another reality in the NFL is that a first-round pick is going to get more chances than a forth-, fifth-, sixth- or seventh-round pick. Same with an expensive free agent vs. a late-round pick or a UDFA. The GM is invested in those early picks, his reputation and his job can be on the line if they fail. If a Day 3 pick doesn’t amount to anything nobody cares — not much is expected of those guys. If a Round 1 quarterback fails, everybody wants to know if that GM has a clue what he’s doing.

It will never be perfect

The college game is, and likely always will be, different than the NFL game. There will always be projection. Can a guy like Drake Maye who has every physical trait you could ever want, fix some of the inconsistencies in his game? Can a talented player like Michael Penix Jr. stay on the field? J.J. McCarthy has all of the intangibles and has won big everywhere he has ever played, but does he have enough arm and athleticism to make that translate in the NFL?

There will always be misses. And there will always be the occasional Brock Purdy. There is a human element to all of this that will never go away.