It’s not that far-fetched that the top three could be there

Imagine the following scenario on April 25, starting at 8 p.m.:

Chicago Bears: Select Caleb Williams.

Washington Commanders: Select Jayden Daniels.

New England Patriots: Select Drake Maye.

Arizona Cardinals: Trade the No. 4 pick to Minnesota in return for No. 11, No. 23, and Minnesota’s 2023 Round 2 pick. Minnesota selects J.J. McCarthy.

Los Angeles Chargers: Select Joe Alt.

Which team selected which quarterback doesn’t matter. All that matters is that (a) three QBs went in the first three picks, (b) Arizona liked the two firsts Minnesota could offer more than the one first the New York Giants had to offer, and (c) Jim Harbaugh meant it when he said that building the offensive line is the most important thing for the Chargers to do.

It could easily happen. If so, the Giants would be shut out of all four top quarterback prospects, but all three top wide receivers would still be on the board.

Giants fans have been conditioned to think that in the absence of a trade-up, whichever one of Marvin Harrison Jr., Malik Nabers, and Rome Odunze is left at No. 6, that will be the pick. What if all three are still there? The best answer won’t be known for several years, but the choice may have to be made on April 25. The Giants could even trade down and select either a second-tier wide receiver or a second-tier quarterback. What reason would there be to stay put and take one of the top three...and which one?

The answer depends in part on just how good each of them is relative to each other and to the best wide receivers in the NFL. In many years there are no wide receivers taken in the top 10, or only one or two. It also depends, though, on what the Giants as currently constructed need most, and which one best fills a need in the Giants’ wide receiver room. Let’s look at both parts of this question.

The 2024 receivers relative to previous classes

I don’t think I’ve seen any draft analyst that doesn’t have Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze in some order as the top three wide receivers and doesn’t have all three in the top 10 of their big board. Dane Brugler of The Athletic ranks them Harrison (No. 2), Nabers (3), and Odunze (7). Lance Zierlein of NFL.com has them as his top three overall on his big board - ahead of all the QBs - in the order Nabers, Harrison, and Odunze. The Pro Football Focus big board has them Harrison (No. 2), Nabers (4), and Odunze (6).

Zierlein’s rankings also give an absolute grade for each player, so we can see how he views them relative to receivers whose NFL level of success is now known. Here are his scores:

The NFL.com grading scale is as follows:

All three prospects are in the “Year 1 starter” category. Maybe that doesn’t impress you. You expected 7.0-7.1 (“Pro Bowl talent”) or 7.3-7.5 (“Perennial All-Pro”) for these players. That’s because many of us as fans tend to engage in hyperbole about players we like. Analysts are more sober in their judgments (the good ones, anyway).

A better way to frame this is to compare this year’s top prospects to the best ones from previous classes. Here are Zierlein’s highest wide receiver rankings for the last few years:

• 2023: Jalin Hyatt (6.50), Zay Flowers (6.46), Josh Downs (6.44), Jaxon Smith-Njigba (6.43)
• 2022: Garrett Wilson (6.50), Treylon Burks (6.50), Jameson Williams (6.48), Chris Olave (6.43), Drake London (6.40)
• 2021: DeVonta Smith (7.13), Ja’Marr Chase (7.12), Jaylen Waddle (6.86), Elijah Moore (6.43)
• 2020: CeeDee Lamb (6.81), Jerry Jeudy (6.77), Henry Ruggs III (6.72), Justin Jefferson (6.46)
• 2019: DK Metcalf (6.80), Marquise Brown (6.70), A.J. Brown (6.70), Parris Campbell (6.70), Deebo Samuel (6.40)

So considering the present crop of wide receiver prospects in light of the past five years:

(1) The vast majority of Zierlein’s highest-ranked prospects have gone on to become elite NFL receivers, i.e., the “bust” rate is much, much smaller than for quarterbacks. Thus, there is a pretty good chance that if the Giants take one of Harrison, Nabers, or Odunze, they will be getting a great NFL player. The same level of confidence does not apply to Williams, Maye, Daniels, and McCarthy - no knock on them, that’s just the nature of playing quarterback at the NFL level.

(2) “Pro Bowl talent” coming out of college is a category Zierlein uses sparingly. Only DeVonta Smith and Ja’Marr Chase from the great 2021 class got that label. Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze are just one category below, in the same basket as some of the great NFL receivers such as CeeDee Lamb, A.J. Brown, and DK Metcalf and above players such as Garrett Wilson, Justin Jefferson, and Deebo Samuel.

Usage and success rates of each receiver

Zierlein also provides a comp for each player among previous or current NFL players. These should be considered as whom these players might become, not who they are now. His comps for the 2024 group are:

Malik Nabers -> Justin Jefferson

Marvin Harrison Jr. -> CeeDee Lamb

Rome Odunze -> Larry Fitzgerald

That’s pretty good company, but those are three different types of receivers. To get more insight into that, we turn to Matt Harmon, creator of Reception Perception, who breaks down receivers by routes run, success by route type, man vs. zone coverage, etc. Similar to PFF, Harmon defines success for a receiver as getting open, i.e., running good routes, to isolate what the receiver can control from quarterback strengths and weaknesses (missed reads, inaccurate throws, etc.). Let’s look at each receiver in more detail.

Marvin Harrison Jr.

First, let’s just make a point using raw statistics from Sports Reference:

Harrison’s third year was very similar to his second year, maybe a bit less impressive. You could be disappointed in that...or you could remember that he went from catching passes from C.J. Stroud to getting them from Kyle McCord. McCord isn’t terrible but Ohio State wouldn’t even commit to him as their 2024 starter, and he’s now at Syracuse. Stroud had 41 TD passes his final year, while McCord had 24. Harrison had 14 receiving TDs under both, i.e., he is pretty much quarterback-proof.

Here are Harrison’s route tree and success rates for different routes (green = above average for the route, yellow = about average, red = below average):

Harrison (6-foot-3, 209 pounds) is a classic X receiver, lining up on 78.9% of his snaps on the boundary. The chart on the left above shows that Ohio State used him to attack all areas of the field except for screen and flat passes, with lots of go (nine) routes and slants. The chart on the right shows that he was in the upper echelon in getting open on most of those routes. On the whole he is considered the best route runner in this draft class, without the elite speed but with tremendous precision, moves, and late separation.

Harrison scored in the 83rd percentile against man coverage (74.0% success rate) and the 80th percentile against zone (83.2% success). Most importantly, he had a 78.7% success rate vs. press coverage (87th percentile), similar to DeVonta Smith. Harrison was double-covered 16.8% of the time, higher than anyone Harmon has ever charted, and he is the only one that managed a 70% success rate on such plays. Simply put: The guy just gets open. Zierlein’s comparison to CeeDee Lamb seems about right. Harrison’s drop rate in 2023 (6.9%) was higher than in his previous year and a bit higher than Nabers’ (4.9%) and Odunze’s (4.8%), but that is the only knock on him.

Malik Nabers

Nabers (6-fot, 200 pounds) is the burner in this group of receivers, having put down a 4.38 s 40 at his pro day. Harmon refers to him as a “walking explosive play,” and if YAC is what you want, he is your guy. This is what has grabbed the attention of so many fans and analysts and allowed him to overtake Harrison as WR1 in the eyes of some. Unlike Harrison, Nabers was used extensively in the slot (50.3% in 2023). Here are his route charts:

Compared to Harrison, Nabers was used somewhat less on deep (nine, corner, post) routes and more on intermediate (out, dig) and short curl routes. That is the essential difference in their styles - Harrison is all about being open 24-7, Nabers is all about doing things after the catch. Same destination, different vehicles.

Nabers not surprisingly was a beast against man coverage in 2023, succeeding 74% of the time (84th percentile), but he was more ordinary against zone (79% success, only 46th percentile). That was probably because he is a less refined route runner than Harrison. He did well against press coverage (72% success, 78th percentile) but had only 50% success when double covered.

Nabers is compared by Harmon to Garrett Wilson and D.J. Moore. Giants fans will appreciate Harmon’s point that Nabers has Kadarius Toney’s “skills in the open field but can actually run routes.”

Rome Odunze

Odunze (6-3, 212 pounds) is generally considered the third of the three elite wide receiver prospects. Think again. Odunze, like Harrison, lined up almost exclusively on the boundary (84% of snaps) and has the size to be a prototypical X receiver. Unlike Harrison, he has been pigeonholed a bit as “just a contested catch guy.” It’s true that Ozunze is almost unstoppable on such plays (an 88.9% contested catch rate). But look further. Here are his route charts:

Odunze ran relatively few short routes compared to his peers. No matter which type of route he was running, though, he got open more than the average receiver. He’s definitely a lot more than a contested catch guy.

Odunze was open at least 80% of the time on eight of the 11 route types in 2023 and was above average in route success on all 11 types, inside to outside and shallow to deep. He was in the 87th percentile in success vs. man coverage, 81st percentile vs. zone, 92nd percentile against press coverage, and he had 77% success when doubled but only faced double coverage rarely. YAC? Odunze broke a tackle on 50% of the passes he caught in open space. Harmon is reminded of Davante Adams when he watches Odunze’s film. In his four years charting receivers, he has Harrison, Odunze, and Ja’Marr Chase as his top prospects, and as of this writing he had not decided on the order. That doesn’t sound like WR3 in the draft to me.

Who would be the best fit for the Giants?

The Giants probably can’t go wrong with any of the three if that’s what they are faced with at No. 6. The question is which one might have the most impact, given the rest of the Giants roster. There are (at least) three considerations:

Which is the best player now and which has the most potential? Right now, Nabers seems to be the most underdeveloped of the three. His route running is a notch below that of Harrison and Odunze and he has the most trouble with double coverage. I can’t help but think of Justin Jefferson (Zierlein’s comp for Nabers), who was shut down by Green Bay late in his great 2022 season and then again by the Giants in the Wild Card game, both times because the defense bracketed him with two defenders a lot. In Nabers’ favor is the fact that he clearly has the greatest potential for YAC of the three receivers.

Of the other two, Harrison is the smoother and further along in his development. He is the best route runner of the three and gets separation against any kind of coverage without blinding speed. He did it with a great QB, and then he came back and did it again with a mediocre QB. If you want someone to make an impact right away, he’s probably the choice.

What is missing from the Giants’ receiving corps? In 2023, the joke was that the Giants were just stockpiling slot receivers. It wasn’t far from the truth. Here are the Giants’ stats from 2023 for their four returning primary receivers:

Wan’Dale Robinson is mainly a slot receiver. Jalin Hyatt played mostly outside but was largely a slot receiver at Tennessee. Darius Slayton was primarily a boundary receiver but lined up in the slot about one-third of the time. The only true X receiver the Giants have at the moment is Isaiah Hodgins, who is no longer viewed as a starter. Nabers played equally in the slot and outside in 2023, but outside he is more a Z (flanker, to use old terminology), as Slayton and Hyatt are, than an X.

Odunze and Harrison are the two X receivers in this group. Odunze is the more physical of the two. Do you wish Hakeem Nicks was still in Giants blue every Sunday? Then Odunze is your guy.

Who has the most potential to help the quarterback? We don’t know who will wind up taking the most snaps for the Giants in 2024. We don’t even know if a 2024 draftee will be on the roster. Taking the Giants at their word, Daniel Jones will be the starter when the season begins if he is ready. One of the knocks on Jones is that he doesn’t throw deep often enough. That’s evident from his passing chart for 2022, his best season:

Other than dig routes (which he had above average success with), Jones threw intermediate and deep routes less often than the average NFL QB. However, other than post routes, on which he was terrible (28.6%), he was actually better than than the average NFL quarterback on the other intermediate and deep route types - he just didn’t try them often, whether because of the offensive line or his own limitations in reading defenses and throwing with anticipation. If the Giants are serious about giving Jones a chance to succeed in 2024, a receiver who excels on intermediate and deep routes would seem to be the best fit. If a draftee will be starting at some point in the season, a receiver who is the most NFL-ready might be the highest priority.

Putting all of these together, I’d rank the Giants’ wide receiver priorities as Harrison, Odunze, and Nabers, in that order, if all three were on the board, partly because the first two are bigger boundary WRs, which I feel is more of a need for the Giants. My only reason for giving Harrison the slightest nod over Odunze is that Harrison thrived under two different quarterbacks, one of them not great, in the best defensive conference in college football, while Odunze did it with the same very good QB for two years in a conference with few elite defenses. On the other hand, if we take Zierlein’s rankings instead, Nabers is WR1 and Odunze WR3. Just yesterday, Matt Waldman’s Rookie Scouting Portfolio for 2024 came out. Waldman has Nabers WR1, Odunze WR2, and Harrison WR3. Interestingly, Waldman sees Nabers as a better route runner than Harrison, just the opposite of Harmon’s take.

The exciting thing, whichever evaluation you agree with, is that all three analysts agree on the same set of top receivers. The odds are that at least one WR will be off the board when the Giants pick. If so, Harrison or Nabers are more likely to be that guy than Odunze, at least at the moment, the way the narrative has gone up to this point. That can change between now and April 25. If the Giants stay at No. 6 and don’t get a QB there, don’t be disappointed, Giants fans. Any one of these receivers would be a great addition.