Does Tyreek Hill’s numbers validate all of his Tua claims?

When the Miami Dolphins traded for Tyreek Hill, there was a lot of criticism of how many picks the Dolphins used while paying him top dollar and what his future production with Tua Tagovailoa could look like as opposed to Patrick Mahomes.

The consensus argument of the Tua doubters, whether it was Dolphins fans themselves or NFL fans, was that Tua didn’t have the arm strength to hit Hill in stride and take advantage of the speed Hill was presenting.

There was footage of training camp where Tua threw a deep shot to Hill, and it looked as if Hill had to turn around and wait for the ball to get there because the video was in slow motion. It was a total disaster for the Dolphins social media team.

Fans and media heads got their jokes in understandably, and Hill went to his and other podcasts to voice his opinion on Tua as a quarterback and sold it for Tua.

Hill praised Tua’s keyhole accuracy, how catchable his ball is, and his arm strength, indicating that he could exploit Hill’s speed.

Most people thought he was overhyping Tua to get his confidence up. It’s a fair critique, but looking at these numbers that Warren Sharp posted, Hill was right from the start, and if Sharp analytics goes on a deep dive on a subject, you can take those numbers to the bank.

I’m not going to compare the complete body of work of Tua Tagoviloa and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes is the best quarterback in the league and is on his way to becoming the goat. He’s not there yet, but his career trajectory is heading in that direction.

What I will say is that Tua has objectively utilized Tyreek Hill better than Patrick Mahomes ever did. Hill’s career-best stats have all come in Miami despite playing triple the number of years in Kansas City. It’s not just an increase in attempts either, it’s the efficiency of the positive plays on those targets.

The argument can be made that Hill was never the number one option in Kansas City because of Travis Kelce. Kelce took away looks and targets, but the Mahomes / Tyreek combo hasn’t matched the success rate of either year in Miami, and that should be easier with fewer attempts.

The fault in the “Tyreek Hill is a cheat code” argument when Hill got to Miami is that if it’s so easy, why wouldn’t the Kansas City offense give him the same amount of targets 15+ yards downfield? Why drive down the field slower if Hill is guaranteed to beat the coverage?

It’s because the Tua / Tyreek downfield connection is better. It just is. It doesn’t mean Tua is better than Mahomes, but the way Tua and Tyreek read the field the same way and Tua’s early delivery and accuracy fit perfectly. Hill practiced with Tua and saw the chemistry. It feels like that’s what prompted all the public hype rather than just trying to help his confidence.

Whether you feel Tyreek was overhyping Tua or being candid with how he truly felt, the results have lined up with the praise and corroborate what he said. They will go into 2024 looking to stay at that level, or in Tyreek’s words, be better.

Let us know in the comments your thoughts on the Tua / Tyreek connection, compared to the Mahomes / Tyreek duo, and what they might do in 2024.