The Chase sees its only short track in Week 6. And, typical of short tracks, I predict exciting racing and many mangled cars.

Race #6 of the Chase / #32 of the Season
October 23, 2005

Track Specs:
0.526 mile oval (the shortest on the Cup circuit): banking = 12' (turns), 0' (straits)
Attendance: 91,000

Stats of Note:
Most Recent Track Winner: Jeff Gordon (4/05)
Winners at the Track in the Last 5 years: Jeff Gordon (3), Rusty Wallace, Jimmie Johnson, Bobby Labonte, Dale Jarrett, Ricky Craven
Track Race Record: Jeff Gordon ('96)
Best Avg. Finish Among Active Drivers: Jeff Gordon (8.1)

Comments:
The second half of the Chase - the final 5 races before the Champion is crowned - begin with the season's final trip to a short-track. And, it is the shortest of all, barely over 1/2 mile. This is GREAT for spectators, who can see the entire track and all of pit row from almost any seat. It's not quite as fun for the guys in the fab shop, though, who often see their har work quickly transformed into bashed and battered piles of metal that vaguely resemble cars.

At this point, I think the top 5 in the points will be JJ, Smoke, Jr., Biff, and Mark Martin (not necessarily in that order). So, feel free to come back and taunt me mercilessly when it turns out
that I am completely wrong. Anyway, on to my Martinsville picks...

Predictions:
To Win
Kurt Busch probably would have won the race here in April if he hadn't been dumped (well, it was more ambigous than that, but...) on lap 447 by Jeff Gordon (who went on to win the race). So, for that reason, picking him to win here in October seems both reasonable and just :)
Kurt is far from having one of the best average finishes here, but he's had decent results: 1 win (10/02), 2 to-5s and 3 top-10s in 10 starts. And, on a track that catches nearly everyone sooner or later, he only has had one DNF. I just have a good feeling about this one...

To Do Well
I already mentioned Jeff Gordon's win here in April, one of 6 on this track in his career. The only active driver with more wins here is Rusty Wallace, who has 7 (most recently in 4/04). Both those guys should not be counted out. Rusty will be particularly motivated to get a win in his final season... this track is a good shot for him to do so. Dale Earnhardt, Jr. has never won here, but when he runs well, he tends to run REALLY well... all 5 of his top-10s (in 11 starts) were also top-5s. I'd be very surprised if he gets his first win here come October, but if he keeps the nose clean, I think another top 5 is likely. This will be Mark Martin's 40th race at Martinsville. With a career average finish of 12.6, this track is pretty average for Martin - he has better finish averages at 9 current tracks and worse averages at 10 - but he was 3rd here in April (both his wins have come in the April race). With a little momentum on his side, this is almost certainly a top 10, and probably a top 5, for the #6.

Also watch
My dark horse here is Jeff Burton. He actually has the third-best average finish at Martinsville over the last five years (11.1), with no wins, but 5 top-10s in 9 races. The Cingular team has struggled a little this year, but I'm still a believer. The 31 won't be in the Chase, but a good finish here is in the cards.

And, after that brief interlude, it's back to nice generic intermediate track. Next up: Bass Pro Shops MBNA 500 at Atlanta Motor Speedway.