Howie gonna Howie

Howie Roseman will make at least one trade during the draft. For who? We don’t yet know. For what? Well, we can make strong estimates. Looking at past trades, the price to move to most areas is pretty set in stone, while in others there has been a range of outcomes.

They currently have 22, 50, 53, 120, 161, 171, 172, and 210: a 1st, two 2nds, a 4th, three 5ths, and a 6th.

The big and exciting move would be Moving up in the 1st round. The Eagles are not going to trade up or be able to trade up before the 12th pick, so we’ll look in the 12-19 range.

22nd overall - trade up

• 2018 - 22, 65 for 16, 154
• 2021 - 23, 66, 86 for 14, 143

That’s it. Those are the only times a team in the teens has traded back to the early 20s. Teams drafting there don’t like to move back to that range. They either trade back within the teens (7 times since 2011) or into the late 20s/early 30s and pick up a bunch of draft value (3 times).

If the Eagles were to move up into the early teens, it should cost them one of their two second rounders, but they should also get back a 5th round pick. In the previous three drafts 7 of 16 non-QB trades in the 1st round saw the team moving back giving up a second pick, between a mid 4th round and an early 5th. Because they’d be giving up a pick in the 50s rather than the 60s, the Eagles would be right to ask for an early 4th.

22nd overall - trade back

• 2011 - 21 for 27, 70
• 2012 - 21 for 27, 93
• 2013 - 22, 2015 7th for 30, 92, 198
• 2014 - 20 for 27, 91
• 2018 - 22, 215 for 25, 125
• 2019 - 21 for 30, 114, 118
• 2019 - 22 for 25, 127, 197
• 2022 - 21 for 29, 94, 121

While moving up may prove difficult, moving back is comparatively easy. If so, the Eagles should pick up a late 3rd or early 4th to move back 10 or fewer spots. If they move back, I would expect them to move up in the 3rd or 4th round off of either the pick they add, or 120.

Two teams immediately come to mind as potential trade up candidates with the Eagles: the Bills and the Chiefs. Both need a WR, the Bills desperately so. Buffalo’s top WR right now is… Khalil Shakir? Curtis Samuel? Mack Hollins? Doesn’t matter who it is, they don’t have one. The Chiefs only good WR Rashee Rice may be facing a suspension and even if he wasn’t, he’s their only good WR. However the Bills don’t have the draft picks to make this work without giving up a 2025 draft pick, they draft at 28, 60, and then 128. The Chiefs have 95 and 131, and moving up in the 1st isn’t out of character for them: in 2022 they traded 29, 94, and 121 for 21.

50th, 53rd overall - Trade up

• 2014 - 54, 122 for 42
• 2015 - 51, 116, 195 for 43, 229
• 2016 - 49, 117 for 41
• 2018 - 51, 117 for 43
• 2021 - 48, 121 for 43, 230
• 2023 - 48, 159 for 45

This one is simple. If the Eagles want to get up into the 40s, they will have to give up 120. Maybe they can pick up a 7th rounder.

50th, 53rd overall - Trade back

If they move up from 22 or 50, they probably trade back from 53. Even if they don’t move up before 53, someone almost always wants to trade into the early 50s.

• 2011 - 53 for 62, 127
• 2012 - 51 for 59, 123
• 2013 - 55 for 61, 173
• 2014 - 50 for 57, 125
• 2016 - 48 for 57, 125, 248
• 2016 - 49 for 56, 124
• 2016 - 50 for 52, 195
• 2018 - 49 for 52, 169
• 2018 - 51 for 105, 2019 2nd
• 2020 - 49 for 59, 101
• 2021 - 52, 113 for 59, 89
• 2022 - 50 for 54, 158

A second pick in the 120s doesn’t move the needle much as they already have pick 120. But it would give them draft picks to then move up from 120.

120 - trade up with current picks

It’s a long way from 53 to 120, so moving up here makes some sense, especially if they add another 4th or 5th in an earlier trade.

• 2012 - 119, 193 for 109
• 2014 - 123, 199 for 111
• 2015 - 124, 161, 242 for 102
• 2016 - 117, 206 for 113
• 2017 - 117, 197 for 112
• 2019 - 117, 186 for 111
• 2019 - 120, 204 for 114
• 2020 - 121, 172 for 109
• 2021 - 126, 166, 232 for 109
• 2023 - 120, 184 for 112

These are underwhelming. Give up 171 or 172 to move up 10-15 spots is questionable value. While trading back is about adding value, trading up is for a specific player, and trading up in the 4th round hass mostly been waste of time. Here are the players drafted with the picks traded up for above: Roy Helu, Alameda Ta’amu, Russell Bodine, Nick Kwiatkoski, Eddie Jackson, Kendall Sheffield, Dru Samia, John Simpson, Dez Fitzpatrick, and Chad Ryland.

120 - trade up with added picks

• 2021 - 117, 121 for 88
• 2023 - 122, 139, 168 for 96

Not a lot to work with here, but packaging 120 and a 4th rounder acquired in a trade down from the 50s is enough to move into the late 80s or mid 90s if a team is willing to trade, which they usually aren’t.

161, 171, 172 - trade up

It’s highly unlikely that when pick 161 is on the clock the Eagles will have that pick, 171, and 172. But if they do, what can a team get for some late 5ths?

• 2016 - 152, 2017 5th for 120
• 2017 - 143, 161 for 121
• 2022 - 165, 169 for 126

The Eagles already have 120, so no need to trade up to around there unless they give up 120 in an earlier trade.

161, 171, 172 - trade back

• 2011 - 163 for 174, 231
• 2017 - 155 for 164, 214
• 2017 - 160, 224 for 181, 188
• 2017 - 172 for 175, 238
• 2018 - 157 for 167, 225
• 2018 - 160 for 183, 217
• 2019 - 159 for 162, 239
• 2021 - 170 for 174, 233
• 2023 - 171 for 175, 252

There are just 58 underclassmen in this draft, down from 82 in 2023 and 73 in 2022, so this draft is “missing” an entire round of underclassmen. Because of that, the depth in this draft is poor. But if you’re moving back five spots, what difference does it make? Pick up a 7th for basically free.

Work those phones Howie.