With the 11th overall pick in the 2024 Bleeding Green Nation community mock draft, Minnesota Vikings GM The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop selects ...

J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan

TL;DR: Vikings are in this draft for a QB, he’s the best on available. Everything else is just noise and me having fun with it.

Let’s start with the obvious: the Minnesota Vikings acquired another 1st round pick (23rd overall) in what is likely an effort to trade up and get their Quarterback of the future. I find it unlikely that the Vikings have any intention of making this pick. However, if they can’t find a trade partner in the Patriots at #3 overall, they might still try to jump the Giants at #6 or prevent the QB-needy Broncos from jumping them. The Vikings certainly have more draft capital than the Broncos, but one of the top picks still need to be willing to make the deal. If they get one of the top 3 picks, I imagine they take whoever of Caleb Williams, Drake Maye, or Jayden Daniels is available to them. If they make a trade with the Cardinals or Chargers, I think walk away with the consensus fourth best QB. Therefore: though I doubt it’s at #11, I think the Vikings could draft JJ McCarthy.

So is he any good, would he fit on the Vikings, and would this pick work out for them? I cannot claim to be better at college talent evaluation than the pros, so I’ll rely on what they say about him. The main scouting report:

• He wasn’t asked to do a lot at Michigan. That team was great (27-1 with him under center) and often built up big leads, so he simply didn’t need to make as much happen as the other three QBs commonly thought to be ahead of him.
• He has a powerful arm especially toward the center of the field. He hasn’t made as many deep throws, but his intermediate game is excellent.
• He’s not a dual threat like Jalen Hurts or Patrick Mahomes, but he’s quick and has some lateral running agility too.
• His arm strength is great, but his accuracy could be better.
• He needs to be better if the first read isn’t there.
• He had a great O-line at Michigan, but still bailed out of clean pockets at times.

As for the Vikings, they would probably be a great landing spot for McCarthy. They have a great set of tackles in Brian O’Neill and Christian Darrisaw and average to above average interior line play, which would keep McCarthy upright. PFF ranked the Vikings offensive line second only to the Eagles in pass protection last season, and their run blocking ranked lower at eighth. He’d also be throwing to Justin Jefferson, which would make any rookie’s job easier. Ty Chandler is a serviceable running back, and the missing piece to the offensive puzzle is a franchise quarterback, nothing new to the Minnesota Vikings.

Pointless Aside #1, the Vikings Quarterbacks:

Now that Kurt Cousins has left town, the Minnesota Vikings once again begin their search for a franchise quarterback. Historically, this has been the Achilles heel of the Vikings. Since Fran Tarkenton retired in 1978, they have never quite figured out the position. Tommy Kramer was supposed to be the guy after Tark, but a TD-INT ratio of 159-157 and being injured for basically half his career meant he was never really “The Guy”. Randall Cunningham had his best season in 1998 with the Vikings, but was only in town for three years. Daunte Culpepper was sometimes great, other times mediocre, and then shipped out of town. Brett Favre rolled his old bones out for a couple of years, then they started 13 different QBs in the 2010s. Behind Case Keenum, they managed the Minneapolis Miracle, then got promptly dismantled by the Eagles and BDN in the NFC Championship Game. Deciding once and for all to get a franchise quarterback who definitely wouldn’t shrink in prime time, they went out and signed the aforementioned Kirk Coupons to a fully guaranteed contract, who got them to a single wild card round win in his six seasons under center.

What’s probably most surprising about the Vikings’ consistently inconsistent quarterback play is how well the franchise seems to do regardless: they have the third highest winning percentage in the Super Bowl era. Their problems seem to emerge once the postseason begins, which is where finding a true star QB would make a difference. Wait, isn’t that what this is about?

End of Pointless Aside #1

The key question whenever drafting a first round quarterback is how much the team believes in that player. If the Vikings don’t believe in McCarthy, they’d be better off hoping the Patriots are willing to trade down or Kyler Murray can be pried away from the Cardinals. They currently have Sam Darnold under contract, but I think it’s unlikely he shows any of the promise he had when he was drafed third overall in 2018. Drafting quarterbacks is hard and even in the first round, you’re more likely to find a bust than the HOF-caliber player you’re hoping for, or even the franchise player who can put the team on his back for one brilliant postseason. Take a look back at previous first round QBs and see how often the better QB isn’t always the first one off the board.

Pointless Aside #2: The Curse of Aaron Rodgers

As I’m no professional scout, I looked back at how the professionals do picking first round quarterbacks and how often I’d say the best one went first in the round. Starting at 2000 and working my way forward, I found that 1) the best QB in the first round wasn’t always the first one off the board 2) QBs used to get picked lower in the first round than they have over the last couple years, and 3) wow, are there a lot of misses. Weirdly, after Aaron Rodgers was taken 24th overall in 2005, there weren’t any real HOF-level quarterbacks taken in the first round until twelve years later in 2017! Yes, there’s some above average players in that span: Matthew Stafford won a ring, Cam Newton and Matt Ryan both reached Super Bowls and won MVPs, Andrew Luck was great for a time; but overall that’s a long period when first round QBs just weren’t up to the job. What curse did Aaron Rodgers lay on the draft after sliding so far in the first round?

End Pointless Aside #2

I think this article was supposed to be about the Vikings drafting JJ McCarthy? They’ll probably do that at some point on draft night. Maybe he’ll be their long-awaited franchise quarterback, maybe their decades-long wait continues. It’s a bit of a cop-out, but drafting a quarterback is a bit unpredictable. If McCarthy is indeed the fourth one off the board, he could still end up the best one of the class.

Thanks for reading my long and meandering explanation that boils down to “The Vikings are picking a quarterback, duh”. See you all next year!

2024 BGN Mock Draft Order

1) Bears (Draftjunky): Caleb Williams, QB, USC
2) Commanders (surefooted): Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Ohio State
3) Patriots (niels.rosenquist): Drake Maye, QB, North Carolina
4) Cardinals (eaglenomics): Malik Nabers, WR, LSU
5) Chargers (SeanEFootball): Rome Odunze, WR, Washington
6) Giants (89Tremaine) Jayden Daniels, QB, LSU
7) Titans (Philly21): Joe Alt, OT, Notre Dame
8) Falcons (Eagles_Blitz80): Dallas Turner, EDGE, Alabama
9) Bears (pheebthegoose): Brock Bowers, TE, Georgia
10) Jets (GreenGrampa): Olumuyiwa Fashanu, OT, Penn State
11) Vikings (The Player Formerly Known as Mousecop): J.J. McCarthy, QB, Michigan
12) Broncos (PBARB1978)
13) Raiders (iam4theBirdz)
14) Saints (Fly Like An Eagle)
15) Colts (J. Wil)
16) Seahawks (Phreezy E)
17) Jaguars (dredscottroberts)
18) Bengals (grantspectations)
19) Rams (Nolo0oo)
20) Steelers (Dr.MidnightGreen)
21) Dolphins (Neil Dutton)
22) Eagles (ablesser88)
23) Vikings (RabidPanda13)
24) Cowboys (Elliptical Man)
25) Packers (LeFire)
26) Buccaneers (FlJoe)
27) Cardinals (green1us)
28) Bills (Leo Bedio)
29) Lions (MrOilman)
30) Ravens (LancGuy)
31) 49ers (SakPrescott)
32) Chiefs (Hoosinole)

Now it’s time for you to vote for who YOU think should be selected in the 2024 BGN Community Consensus Mock Draft.

1) Bears: QB Caleb Williams
2) Commanders: QB Jayden Daniels
3) Patriots: QB Drake Maye
4) Cardinals: WR Marvin Harrison Jr.
5) Chargers: WR Malik Nabers
6) Giants: WR Rome Odunze
7) Titans: OT Joe Alt
8) Falcons: EDGE Dallas Turner
9) Bears: OT Olumuyiwa Fashanu
10) Jets: TE Brock Bowers
11) Vikings: