Unseasonal Howie season

Going into this offseason we knew that Nick Sirianni was on the proverbial hot seat. Howie Roseman is not on it with him, but he has attacked the start of the offseason like he is.

The first week of free agency was both a typical one and an atypical one for Roseman. In isolation the moves he has made have mostly fit the Roseman template: investing in pass rush, investing in offensive line, investing in quarterback, low financial obligations and/or short term contracts to low priority positions, a player for pick trade, signing former high picks to one year contracts, adding veteran depth behind established veterans... standard Eagles moves.

But taken as a whole, the Eagles offseason looks similar to the type of disjointed one that we see every year from teams that are under pressure from above to get results now. Predictably they rarely work out.

Prior to free agency the Eagles tried to soften the blow of trading/cutting Haason Reddick or Josh Sweat by letting it be known that they were unhappy with their edge rushers play against the run. Fair enough, but then they went out and signed Bryce Huff, who offers little against the run.

In the Nick Sirianni era the Eagles have not signed a player who spent most of his career as a special teamer. In the Doug Pederson era when the team did it was usually an undersized linebacker on a one year contract. The signing of Zack Baun is almost a total reversal for the Sirianni era. Baun, a LB on a one year fully guaranteed deal, has double the career special teams snaps as defensive snaps played. The only divergence from the Pederson era is that he isn’t undersized.

The Kenny Pickett trade is QB Factory hubris at its finest. Picket is the same age as Jalen Hurts (actually a few months older), and has gone backwards in his development. As a rookie he showed flashes of being an NFL QB, but regressed in his second season. Former Steelers OC Matt Canada did Pickett no favors, but Russell Wilson threw more TDs in 15 games of the Nathaniel Hackett/Jerry Roseberg season in 2022 than Pickett has in 24 starts in his career. Making matters worse, Pickett was dealt after just two seasons because the Steelers had enough of him off the field. When Mason Rudolph kept the starting job after Pickett returned from injury last season Pickett reacted poorly, then doubled down on the pouting when told he wouldn’t get the first reps in OTA over Wilson. This is the guy you’re trading for?

Then there is Saquon Barkley, a perfect illustration of the paradox of the Eagles offseason.

Roseman never spent significant resources at the running back position because the top of the market was overvalued. But free agent running back contracts are no longer the bad business they used to be. Barkley’s contract has him as the 18th highest RB cap hit in 2024, then 5% of the cap in 2025, which is a WR2 level percentage. Barkley got the same amount of guaranteed money as Darnell Mooney.

But Barkley is a risk that Roseman hasn’t taken in the past. For one, this wasn’t his typical buy low acquisition that he’s made on every veteran RB as a GM.

Darren Sproles was acquired for a 5th in a cost cutting move by the Saints. LeGarrette Blount was signed to a one year minimum contract. Jay Ajayi was traded for a 4th round pick after the Dolphins lost 40-0 to fall to 4-3 after going 10-6 the year prior. Darren Howard was acquired in 2019 for a 2020 6th from the Bears, Chicago had already traded away their 2020 1st, 3rd, and 4th round picks. D’Andre Swift was acquired for a 4th and a swap of 7ths two days after the Lions drafted Jahmyr Gibbs, they had also signed David Montgomery in free agency. Those trades are working the market.

Though Barkely is coming off a poor season and his contract is reasonable, signing him was not buying low. The Eagles obviously had him as their priority signing, no player at the top of their market in free agency is a bargain.

When Roseman has acquired veteran RBs, he’s almost exclusively brought in players with low workloads. Sproles was 31 and had 815 career touches when acquired, Blount was also 31 and with 1214 touches, Ajayi 495, Howard 850, and Swift 788. Barkley has 1489. 2024 will be Barkley’s age 27 season, which has long been known as the peak of a running back’s value, and Barkley’s high workload won’t help him beat that curve. Over the past two seasons only three RBs have more touches than Barkley’s 640: Derrick Henry (690), Christian McCaffrey (668), and Josh Jacobs (663). McCaffrey is the only RB who has played more snaps than Barkley’s 1573 over those two seasons, with 1589.

Certainly going from the disaster that was the Giants offensive line to the strength that is the Eagles offensive line will help. But Barkley wasn’t spending most of his carries stuck in the backfield behind that terrible line, or facing a mountain of defenders that suppressed his production. Per NextGen Stats, in 2023 Barkley faced the 35th most 8+ man boxes, and in 2022 the 29th most. In 2023 he had the 19th lowest average time behind the line of scrimmage, in 2022 the 9th lowest. Prior to his ACL tear, Barkley averaged 8.2 yard per catch, since it, 6.3; he was in the top half of attempts per broken tackle prior to the ACL with an average of 10.6, since it he’s been in the bottom half with an average of 25.1. While he’s been 14th and 18th in yards per attempt after contact in the last two seasons, but he was 4th in his first two, pre-injury seasons.

We knew that going into the offseason the Eagles were going to have to have a strong season for heads to not roll. After the first week of the offseason, there is no excuse (other than Jalen Hurts getting hurt—which is a reason, not an excuse) to not win the division. The Cowboys are treading water at best, losing several starters or contributors and signing just one player so far. The WASTEAM Football Commanders added a high volume of nothing special players and will start a rookie QB. The Giants, well, they exist.

The Eagles are committed to this core of players for 2025, the only players with the flexibility of contract restructuring are Barkley and AJ Brown, and Brown is the only one they can move on from that would give them significant cap savings. If the Eagles fail again this season, what happens next?