Previously: Offense.

DEFENSIVE END

A paring of Derrick Moore and Josiah Stewart might not be particularly far off the legendary Hutchinson-Ojabo pairing from 2021. Stewart and Moore were already Michigan's top edge guys per PFF, and they were more or less indistinguishable from the departed Braiden McGregor and Jaylen Harrell in UFR grading.

Neither was exactly a star in 2023, but it's not hard to extrapolate them from very good rotation players into stars with another year of development They had pass rush win rates of 17% (Stewart) and 15% (Moore), which was good for 18th and 43rd, respectively, amongst 251 P5 edges with at least 100 Snaps. Meanwhile, you may remember some grousing in this space about Stewart not holding the edge in a couple early games but once he got that figured out he was an excellent run defender.

Also: the way Michigan ran its pass rush last year probably put a cap on just how highly they could grade out. Guys like Chop Robinson and Bralen Trice are sent off the edge over and over; Michigan played a ton of games up front to take advantage of their DT's rush and a lot of snaps had DEs diving inside in ways that aren't likely to get an individual pass rush win but could, say, lead to six sacks of Jalen Milroe.

Moore in particular has a flight path that makes you expect a first round draft selection after 2024: highly touted recruit, contributes as true freshman, basically interchangeable with a draftable senior as a true sophomore, ignition time. Stewart will be entering year four and probably doesn't have the ceiling Moore does but he doesn't have to get a whole lot better to vie for All-American-level output.

The main question is depth. There is no shame in getting locked behind Michigan's elite foursome last year but it does mean we have vanishingly little data on any of the guys vying for rotation snaps been Moore and Stewart. TJ Guy did look solid in about 80 garbage time snaps a year ago.

If the main problem here is "who is the backup anchor" I think it'll be okay.

[After THE JUMP: mmmm DTs]

DEFENSIVE TACKLE

the boys are back [Paul Sherman]

Copy and paste the vibe from DE except increment it a couple notches. Whereas it's reasonable to expect one or both of the DEs to gussy up into a coveted draft prospect, Mason Graham is already the highest-graded returning DT in college football, per PFF. The main thing preventing him from scraping Mo Hurst territory is that Michigan had the luxury of rotating him.  Kenneth Grant wasn't far off, checking in with an 81 grade that's behind only Graham and Kentucky DT Deone Walker amongst second-year players nationally. These guys are the odds-on favorites to be the best DT pairing in college football this year.

And, unlike DE, there is a clear third option: Rayshaun Benny, who will be a redshirt junior next year and clocked 244 snaps this year. Benny was slightly disappointing early in the season but finished on a tear; unfortunately he went out early in the Alabama game and could not attempt to extend a four-game hot streak to six.

Things get murky beyond that. Cameron Brandt and Trey Pierce both got 50 garbage time snaps; I was hoping they'd pick up one of those Ivy transfers in the portal so they could have another year where they went four or five deep with good players. They could not, but it'll probably be fine. One of Graham's biggest strong points as a recruit was his endurance, and after a couple of years with Ben Herbert he should be able to go most of the way in most games. UFR records will be challenged.

LINEBACKER

[Bryan Fuller]

Pick two of Ernest Haussman, Jimmy Rolder, and Jaishawn Barham. Or, more probably, pick all three. This is a fairly good situation considering Michigan just lost two guys to the draft who had been starting together for three straight years. Hausmann picked up just under 350 snaps, most of them meaningful, whilst spotting the starters. He did not feel out of place, especially as a true sophomore, and reasonable improvement—more likely because this will be only his second year in the system—gets him to a good Big Ten starter.

Rolder didn't do much in 2023 other than have an infamous cameo against OSU but he had ~150 snaps as a true freshman and probably would have had the Hausmann role if Michigan hadn't imported him. Instead he had the luxury of a redshirt. The coaches attitude towards him is encouraging enough to believe he'll be a player.

Meanwhile, Barham started for Maryland from the drop and had a standout freshman year but backslid a bit in 2023. Still, he's a guy with a ton of experience for a third year player and should at least be decent.

Between the three contenders Michigan should find one plus player and one solid one as a median. The ceiling feels higher than the floor with two guys who started as true freshmen in the Big Ten.

CORNERBACK

Two big losses in Mike Sainristil and Josh Wallace, but Will Johnson is a hell of start. With Ja'Den McBurrows the heir apparent at nickel, CB2 will again be the primary worry on Michigan's defense. Last year they had a bunch of true freshmen, a gritty walk-on, a promising converted athlete, and Wallace; this year it will be impingent on one of the second-year guys to step up. Cam Calhoun and Amorion Walker already bolted for greener pastures so this looks like a battle between DJ Waller and Jyaire Hill. Waller was the guy (along with Walker) getting first-half snaps against the likes of Purdue; Hill was the guy with the most hype as a recruit at the position on the field where recruiting hype most directly translates to success. (Michigan also has more veteran options in Myles Pollard and Kody Jones, so they're not entirely dependent on the two second-year guys.)

You can't be as confident Michigan will find a plug and play guy here as other spots because they did not rotate willy-nilly like they did elsewhere, the occasional Waller snap excepted. The swing position on the D is CB2.

SAFETY

Michigan's fourth S just casually PBUing throws to Rome Odunze [Barron]

Michigan's running it back with all four of Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Quinten Johnson, and Keon Sabb. Next question.

Actually, the question I have: will Michigan attempt to kick down one of the four to nickel? They have safeties coming out their ears, so it would make sense to kick the tires on a couple—likely Moore and Johnson—in case the CB2 spot is a little wonky and sliding out McBurrows is their best option.

UPSHOT

The 2023 defense part two. I expect a downgrade a linebacker because the new group won't be as good in space; I expect a downgrade at CB because going from Dax Hill to Mike Sainristil to Also As Good As Those Guys ain't happening and Josh Wallace turned out to be a unicorn.

Offsetting that: the DL play could be better next year. I think year-older versions of Grant, Graham, Moore, and Stewart may than offset the loss of McGregor, Harrell, Jenkins, and Goode. The question is: if first quarter 2024 Derrick Moore is better than 2023 Moore/McGregor, what about fourth quarter Derrick Moore? I think the four individuals starting will be better than the best four individuals you could pull off the 2023 line, but going from nine obvious playables to ~6 is slightly uncomfortable. I'd still bet on 2024, though.

Add in the single greatest safety room in the history of this blog and the main question is wither Jesse Minter? If they can keep Minter another year there's no reason to believe this defense can't be in the ballpark of last year's. Second best of the millennium again… no, probably not. Top five nationally? Book it.