THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

This will be short because Michigan football is playing in a kinda important game and just had a kinda important game and we’re a little too distracted. Also basketball is sub-.500 after an uninspired blowout at the hands of a Southland team between the holidays. McNeese State wasn’t just any Southland team but for the football-addled fanbase they’re bad enough to justify checking out.

Minnesota is not too dissimilar from McNeese: they roll out the ball, hit you with guards getting to the rim, and don’t have any presence down low. They also put together a nonconference schedule worthy of the Southland, with nine Q4 games completely warping their early season stats. Their four games against live opponents were a win at home versus Nebraska, a blowout loss at San Francisco, a blowout loss at Ohio State, and a close one at home versus #88 Missouri.

If none of this sounds interesting to you, well, that's why they put it on Peacock at 9PM.

[Hit THE JUMP for but can either of them win it?]

THE US

Me graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

I made this before I went to California so the rankings may have shifted minorly in the interim. There are rumors that Dug McDaniel might not be academically eligible for this semester. I put him in for now.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

Sixth man SG Braeden Carrington is injured.

THE THEM

If Ola-Joseph’s at the rim you’re gonna have a bad time. [Campredon]

C Dawson Garcia was the headliner last year and remains so, since his presence gives Minnesota their offensive profile. He’s a true stretch five who took a circuitous route from Minnesota’s class to Marquette, North Carolina, and back home to the Gophers last year. The reason for leaving UNC was multiple family members in ill health in the middle of the 2021-‘22 season. Over a full 2022-‘23 he put up career numbers in rebounding, fouls drawn, 2P%, and usage, though his threes dropped from lethal to just pretty good. The best way to shut him down is size, since he likes to shoot over guys.

PG Elijah Hawkins is the teammate taking most advantage of that spacing. He’s a Dug whose tops-in-the-B10 assist rate is only partially attributable to Minnesota’s system, home scorer, and weak opposition. He was an excellent distributor the last two years for Howard, and also shot 45% from three last year. Ominously his turnover rate also ballooned to the 40s in the few games he played against Tier A competition, and that’s been true this year as well. Being small is the big reason he has to force it; Hawkins is a career 40% on all 2PAs.

The rest of the starters are complementary wing types. Joshua Ola Joseph is an opportunistic slasher who’s likely to do some damage as an athletic top-250ish type. Freshman SF Cam Christie and transfer combo guard Mike Mitchell are just shooters at this point, though Mitchell played a bunch of point for Pepperdine as a freshman and sophomore.

The Bench:

Minnesota lacks a rim protector, but with SG Braeden Carrington unavailable since December everyone off the bench is some kind of too-small big.

• C Pharrell Payne is a 6-9 paint-bound center who can shift Garcia to the four. He’s got some moves under the basket but the reason he led the Big Ten in 2P% in conference play was putbacks and slams set up by others. You have a better chance of finding a flight to Houston than he does of making a free throw.
• Isaiah Ihnen is the rare Gopher to still be around from the Pitino years, but made it due to taking a couple of years off. He remains a beanpole just-a-shooter.
• C Parker Fox only comes in if Payne gets in foul trouble. He’s a good rebounder but that’s about it.
• F Kadyn Betts is a developmental freshman who’s missed most everything he’s attempted so far.

THE TEMPO FREE

Four factors with all of the garbage games included:

Conference-only four factors (Ohio State and Nebraska):

Ain’t played nobody. A lot of length outside though.

THE KEYS

Defend the perimeter. Do we have a team capable of switching or not? On paper Michigan has the exact right defense to shut down a five-out team like Minnesota.

Don’t get blown by. Ola-Joseph had quiet games against Michigan last year but that was a different team. Wings like him have been having way too much success getting to the rim.

Turn turnovers into points. Hawkins is going to try some stuff, and some of it’s going to work. You make up for that by capitalizing on what he gives you.

Please be eligible Dug. The season doesn’t look so hot without him.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 5.