10/14/2023 – Michigan 52, Indiana 7 – 7-0, 4-0 Big Ten

Another week, another slight update to the bolded line you see immediately above. Increment the date, barely adjust the score,—this time I got to leave Michigan's entirely alone and subtract three points from Opponent's line—increment the wins but not the losses. I am aware that this bit of the column has been fairly boring this year, but I can't wax rhapsodic about Yet Another Game Against Opponent. It is not possible. I already used the "lol cut and paste" column conceit this year... in week two. 

The only deviation from the overall narrative of the season was the placement of Michigan's two unsuccessful drives and Opponent's two successful ones. All of those came right at the start, so there was a momentary flicker of… not exactly doubt. Something more than annoyance. Peevishness. Yes, folks, I was peeved.

Then barely more than a quarter later it was 35-7 and I was invested in two things: Michigan continuing their season-long third quarter shutout streak and being up by enough that Jack Tuttle got to play in the third quarter. Check and check. Michigan has still not been in a football game this season.

This has been a positive development for our collective blood pressure and results in a lot of fancy graphs where Michigan is at one end and Iowa is at the other:

Iowa is going to make the Big Ten championship game because of course they are. Michigan, meanwhile, has two giant hurdles to clear before they can say the same, and two more games against deeply overmatched opponents before the first of those hurdles shows up on the schedule. It's natural for a team, and a fanbase, to sleepwalk through a rainy Saturday.

At this point, though… I'd like to be a little nervous. College football is not supposed to be an exploration of the Washington Generals' alternate uniforms.

--------------------------

At least this week is Michigan State week. Even when Michigan State is abjectly horrible the history of this game brings enough intrigue to separate it from the Indianas and Rutgerseseses of the world. And MSU is abjectly horrible. They're coming off a double Sparty No loss against Rutgers that caused Graham Couch to post a video titled "Michigan State football's epic collapse at Rutgers continues the season from hell" that is, hilariously, on the Detroit Free Press channel. Former beat writer Matt Charboneau ended up in a Twitter fight with MSU fans who thought his Katin Houser take was bad…

Imagine watching your team do this today and your move is to find a post … from April … and act superior. Hilarious. Keep the faith there, big fella https://t.co/ECegJZpNkG

— Matt Charboneau (@mattcharboneau) October 14, 2023

…after Houser threw for 4.6 yards an attempt. His main asset relative to Noah Kim is that when he tried to turn the ball over, Rutgers politely declined.

It is likely that Michigan stuffs Michigan State in a trash can this weekend, but 52-7 hits different when it's Michigan State a year after eight guys got suspended for jumping Gemon Green and Ja'Den McBurrows after a noncompetitive loss. It's not going to be 52-7 because MSU will pull out all the stops as they chase the one thing that could somewhat redeem this karma-laden season, but what's MSU's best-case scenario here? It doesn't have the word "dignity" in it.

That will provide some grim satisfaction, and then one more tune up before Armageddon November.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Fuller]

you're the man now, dog

#1 JJ McCarthy. Sometimes the sheer lack of attempts for Mccarthy keeps him out of this slot, and you could argue that a guy throwing the ball 17 times probably shouldn't be up here. But when you complete 14 of them for 222 yards, okay. McCarthy also had 50 yards rushing. He did take a sack or two that was on him, but offset that with multiple escapes that set Michigan up for big plays.

#2 Michael Barrett. A blitzing tour de force from Barrett, who had a sack, strip, and fumble recovery on one thunderous blitz; on a second he forced the QB into the waiting arms of Jaylen Harrell; a third forced a rollout and throwaway even though he drew a blocker. Barrett was able to attack half a man and push through anyway. Michigan has been holding their water with Barrett all year—just 18 pass rush snaps per PFF. Might be time for him to get nosier.

#3(T) AJ Barner, Max Bredeson, and Colston Loveland. Barner and Bredeson continue to plow opponents; Barner also turned in a nice back-shoulder catch. Loveland isn't as forceful of a blocker but led Michigan with 80 receiving yards, including an important conversion on Michigan's third drive and a long improv touchdown. Two points each.

Honorable mention: Blake Corum continues to do Blake Corum things in relatively slim at-bats. Ben Hall led Michigan in rushing and set expectations for next year real high. Jaylen Harrell had a clean-up sack and a strip sack that set up a Mason Graham recovery and club-forward turnover buffs photo. Mike Sainristil deflected a pass that ended up being an interception and had great coverage on a couple other incidents.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

35: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minn, #1 IU)
22: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Neb)
14: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn, HM IU)
12: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers, HM IU)
10: Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb, HM IU)
9: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska)
8: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers, #2 IU)
7: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV),
5: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn, T3 IU)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb, T3 IU)
3: Will Johnson(#3 Minn), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers, T3 IU), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV, HM Neb), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM IU)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers),Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn), The Offensive Line (HM Minn), Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn), Ben Hall (HM IU)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Tyler Morris fields a punt over his shoulder after a weird bounce, dodges the two gunners, and rips off 30 yards to set Michigan up for a late first-half TD that allows Michigan to dominate the "middle eight."

Honorable mention: JJ-Edwards flip, Barrett sack-strip-recover, JJ-Loveland improv TD, Graham one-hand fumble recovery.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

Keon Sabb bites on a trick play, allowing Indiana to go up 7-0 near the end of the first quarter and asking momentary Questions.

Honorable mention: Colston Loveland drops a ball on Michigan's first play from scrimmage, which helps create a three-and-out.

OFFENSE

POV: you've made a terrible mistake [Fuller]

#1. JJ McCarthy is the most efficient QB in America by virtually any measure you can shake a stick at. Last week we mentioned QBR; here's EPA:

FBS Quarterbacks: EPA/dropback leaders
1. JJ McCarthy .58
2. Michael Penix .57
3. Dillon Gabriel .54
3. Jayden Daniels .54
5. Kyle McCord .44

— Nick Baumgardner (@nickbaumgardner) October 16, 2023

This game showcased what McCarthy is able to do outside of the pocket; rushing him is almost counterproductive. PFF has McCarthy for 41 pressured dropbacks; he's completing 67% of his passes for almost 12 yards an attempt. That YPA is 4th in the country, and the guys around him are Jalen Milroe and Jayden Daniels, this year's most outrageously mobile QBs.

Incompletion watch. McCarthy's three incompletions:

• Drop from Loveland on the first play.
• A weird red-zone occurrence where the Indiana CB on Johnson has his hips perpendicular to the line of scrimmage and Johnson seems to accidentally run a slant; McCarthy throws it to the pylon for what should have been an easy TD.
• McCarthy throws it a little behind Roman Wilson; an Indiana LB who is not looking at the ball throws up a hand and gets a fortunate deflection.

Only the third is a McCarthy issue. This has been this week's Complete Accounting Of JJ McCarthy Incompletions.

Back on track. The play of the game, at least from a vibes standpoint, was Michigan's first first down of the game. This is pinpoint, exactly on time, and was badly needed after Michigan had gone 14 minutes without a first down and allowed Indiana to take a 7-0 lead:

That is an NFL window.

Under pressure. JJ McCarthy was not exactly under siege in this game but he was consistently pressured, which must have felt jarring after Minnesota, when McCarthy barely felt a whisper from the opponent's pass rush. Indiana set the tone early with a cover zero snap on third and seven against Michigan's empty set:

I don't really know what to do with this, because usually you're supposed to let one of the edge guys go; here that seems counterproductive since not blocking the LB would give McCarthy the half beat he probably needs. I guess he just needs to dump it out to Johnson as soon as he sees the LB come.

[Barron]

Barner expands exponentially. He didn't beat the corner on this double move but it didn't matter:

No offense to Erick All, who I thought was a good player here, but it seems clear Michigan actually upgraded at TE2 in the great offseason Big Ten tight end swap meet. The "bad" news for Barner is that Bredeson's thumping performance here shot him past Barner to become PFF's #1 run-blocking TE nationally. Barner is now #2.

Windback time. I'm going to have to get some clarification on what exactly qualifies as "windback"—Google still wants to correct you back to "wingback" when you punch the keys—but Michigan's ground game took advantage of duo expectations to crack the Indiana defense with plays that are basically but not quite duo:

Watch the Indiana defenders fling themselves into the line, and when Michigan attacks a gap way to the backside there's no one left.

[Barron]

Dive: no. Michigan did not run their short yardage dive once in this game, instead running a bunch of down G.  Those were easy conversions as Indiana sold out on the interior and Michigan led it out with Max Bredeson and one of the two guards against LB/DB types. Hard to imagine anyone holding up against that except PSU/OSU.

Crack: yes. We saw a crack sweep last week that Minnesota defended well; this time Indiana was not so lucky as the casual motion of Corum back into the backfield suddenly turned into first and goal:

Add this up with the previous two bullets and the past couple weeks and Michigan's ground game is much more of a moving target than it was early in the season.

OL hiccups. I did not think that Zak Zinter had a game up to his usual standards; on one unsuccessful run it looked like he was trying to execute that power trap we talked about last week but there was no room and he did not adapt quickly enough to get a standard kickout; on another he just lost the block. He is going to come in for some minuses this week after a nearly clean season to date.

I'm not sure what the issues in pass pro were just yet; to my eye there were a couple of issues where Barnhart got beat straight up. I think we know that the tackles are not great and that'll be something opponents can attack, as long as they're willing to live with the possibility of McCarthy breaking the pocket.

WOOP WOOP WOOP WOOP WOOP [Fuller]

What a fun little guy! I think this guy's just delightful.

Look at him go, all moving around like he's made out of gelatin and lightning.

hoss vs hoss next year [Barron]

What a fun big guy! With Kalel Mullings out, Ben Hall got his first extended action of the year and looked fantastic. He has a natural downgear-and-burst style; he's 234 and can rugby scrum just like Mullings. I cannot tell you how much I loved this four-yard run:

That is maximizing your blocking; he's able to make the best of a bad situation. This dude was ranked the #106 player in Georgia by 247. I predict this is going to look like a bad ranking.

WHY. Look, it's me, the QB run zealot. I do not think a third and twelve QB draw against Indiana when you're up 35-7 is a good idea.

DEFENSE

[Barron]

Prep time should be over. Michigan has rotated more extensively than I've ever seen them. 20 different defenders have at least 100 snaps. #20 is Rod Moore; #21 is DJ Waller with 94. That's the line between active contributors and next-year guys. This is good. Michigan has a ton of playable depth, and they're crushing opponents.

At times, though, it is Annoying, largely on high leverage plays where Michigan's best players are not on the field. Various third and short situations saw Cam Goode on the field, and while I appreciate how far Goode has come this year he's not Jenkins or Graham, not by a long shot.

The MSU game seems like a good moment to reduce the rotation and go with the starters full time. Michigan has two games before Penn State and MSU will probably play over their heads for a while. This is the moment to find out what happens if Jenkins and Graham are playing most of the game, and get comfortable with whatever your best look in the secondary is.

It was material. The biggest swing play of the game was the downfield completion to Donaven McCulley that got called back for illegal hands to the face. Instead of Indiana with a first down near midfield and an opportunity to score on the final drive of the half, Indiana was forced to punt and watch Michigan score to go up 21-7.

In the stands I thought that was tremendously fortunate. Usually those hands to the face penalties don't actually have a big impact on the play. But after going over the tape is clear that Goode is going to get to the quarterback if Zach Carpenter isn't delaying him by shoving his head.

[Barron]

The other bit. Yikes: Keshaun Harris is supposed to be one of the fastest guys on the team and got beat by McCulley on a double move. That happened to Sainristil a week ago against Minnesota, and we haven't seen any of the young guys come up to challenge Josh Wallace. By this time last year Johnson was emerging. It doesn't seem like any cavalry is coming at the CB spot. At least Will Johnson has apparently shed whatever issues he had against Nebraska to become the CB opponents don't even bother to target again.

I hope we're not ruing Gemon Green's departure after the season. If the NIL was enough to get the very draftable guards back you have to wonder what the decision matrix was that caused Green to go be a UDFA instead of (presumably) making more money than whatever a practice squad guy gets and playing for a dominant team.

I might be kind of down on Junior Colson. The last couple of weeks have seen Michigan's linebackers get tested, at least somewhat, and while Colson has turned in plays from time to time I am pretty frustrated by his lack of recognition this deep into his Michigan career. This third and three is perfectly set up for Colson to shoot a gap and enjoy some flex time afterwards but he just drifts into the guys blocking Graham:

MLB #25 on top hash

This play has Barrett blitzing and Moore filling behind that; those backside gaps can't be Colson's responsibility. He sees Graham get a double and just drifts into the block instead of shooting the gap. Devin Bush is getting a thumping stop on this play; Colson is making it superbly easy for Indiana to convert. We're halfway though Colson's third season as a starter. At this point it is what it is. He's grading out as Michigan's 16th-best defender amongst the 20 with 100 snaps; the guys behind him are Rod Moore, Makari Paige, Rayshaun Benny, and Keshaun Harris. That's two safeties with vanishingly few gradable snaps, the #5 DT, and a walk-on CB.

On the other hand. Michael Barrett was excellent in this game. Seth pointed this out on the podcast but watch Barrett attempt to ID the trick play to Sabb:

He comes into the screen from the right already pointing downfield, to no avail. As mentioned above, he was an impact blitzer and didn't stand out as a guy responsible for IU's early success.

[Fuller]

Rod Moore check-in. We have very little idea about how ready Rod Moore is at this point in the season so any data is welcome; this early third down conversion looks like it's intended to bait the throw to the tight end, which does come, and Moore is a hair late for a PBU:

I don't care about the missed tackle; leaking a few yards to a tight end after a first down conversion is a small downside relative to forcing a punt. It does still feel like the Rod Moore who was breaking up CJ Stroud passes to Marvin Harrison Jr last year is getting the PBU there.

Moore did have a couple plays like the one pictured above where he did a good job to beat blocks and defeat IU's attempted Edge Garbage.

GIVE QUINTEN JOHNSON HIS PBU. Yeah, that guy's helmet was in-bounds when he landed. No, he did not survive contact with the ground, possibly because his helmet hit first. I am not listening to the "it was cool" people on this, because Quinten Johnson obliterating a guy to get a pass break-up is also cool.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Seems like someone won the punt return job for the sixth consecutive week. I continue to express bafflement that Tyler Morris hasn't been given the full-time punt return job:

It was telling that Gus Johnson said "Jake Thaw is back to fair catch it" on a later punt, then said something like "wow, he's going to run it" when Thaw got a return in.

Also in fun little guy. Semaj Morgan had a productive kick return.

That's all. Special team continues to not be real relevant. I am confused at how exactly SP+ has Michigan special teams ranked 7th and FEI had them 43rd before last week's game—FEI hasn't updated yet. I'm guessing that SP+ is writing off the kick return fumble as an outlier not likely to repeat and FEI obviously isn't. Michigan is 130th in kick return efficiency.

MISCELLANEOUS

Flip you for real. Someone at BTN has a real good memory for weird throws:

About that J.J. McCarthy flip today pic.twitter.com/DPfeXlRQT2

— Big Ten Football (@B1Gfootball) October 15, 2023

Hitchcock would be proud. PAN OF THE YEAR:

It's getting weird in the tunnel...#GoBlue pic.twitter.com/kXsvbwc9UH

— The Winged Helmet (@TWH_Chris) October 14, 2023

Dork city, population: us. Utterly endearing or cringe is in the eye of the beholder.

According to JJ McCarthy, Jim Harbaugh's "Jolly Good Fellow" singing has become a tradition, now for the best players of the game.

This week's honorees were Michael Barrett and Semaj Morgan.

— Zach Shaw (@_ZachShaw) October 14, 2023

I'm going with both. McCarthy actually sang it at the press conference. It's like we're living in a live-action remake of Air Bud.

Washington needs to lose. Caleb Williams repeat Heisman stock plummeted after Notre Dame throttled USC; the heavy favorite is now Michael Penix. McCarthy is now tied for second with OU QB Dillon Gabriel. (Washington isn't going to lose.)

Fancy stats. Michigan remains #1 in SP+. 5-1 UNLV is up to… 87th. Opponent-adjusted EPA per play:

OSU's offense got a major bump because they got to play Purdue Don Brown in year zero, with predictable results. I think Ryan Walters is going to be a success in West Lafayette but that's a huge styles-make-fights game that the numbers can't parse. Also, yes, PSU's defense is quite good. MSU's offense is… not.

Slim fit jeans. You will not be surprised that Michigan is the, uh, least wide team in football.

highest/lowest average formation width this season pic.twitter.com/ZjW5PniXR3

— Anthony Treash (@PFF_Anthony) October 13, 2023

This is what happens when you give Jim Harbaugh three excellent tight ends.

HERE

Best and Worst:

Best:  First World Problems, or Lack There-of

As the saying goes "every comic book is someone's first", and in the case of Michigan football I do get a sense that this site has a number of scars/memes that have been lost to fans due to age, circumstance, and intentional memory-holing the Dark Times.  So yeah, my guess is a fair number of blog members don't experience involuntary dread when they see "Never Forget" around any discussion of the secondary, or seeing words like "Jesse Speight and Ben Mason are fighting for snaps on the two-deep at defensive tackle", and that's probably for the best.  But those of us who have been around this place for a while, who've followed the team way too-intently during the Rich Rod years of "he just needs Jeff Casteel and then he'll field a functional defense", the "right to rush four" mantra under Greg Mattison that never turned into much beyond talk, or Don Brown's penchant for unearthing stud ends from the Acela Corridor but rarely getting such luck with defensive tackles.

So it comes as almost unfathomable good fortune that Michigan is now fielding maybe the best defensive line in the conference, if not the country, with particular strength up the middle.

Stats!

BLAKE CORUM'S USAGE

Last week, I discussed how a decreased workload for the star RB was probably optimal this year because last year he became optimized around 120 carries. He’s on pace to hit 120 carries around the end of the Purdue game (aka the last preseason game). Here’s a CHART that compares his yearly workloads.

ONE PLAY AND THAT'S IT

Each of the four Big Ten teams Michigan’s played this year have scored exactly one touchdown against them: Rutgers scored on a 69 yard catch-and-run slant on the opening drive; Nebraska scored on a 74 yard run in ultra-garbage time; Minnesota scored on a 35 yard prayer at the end of the half; and Indiana scored on a 44 yard trick play that fooled a young safety. Outside of these plays, Michigan has allowed its Big Ten opponents to gain just 3.65 yards per play.

Iowatch!

One-Sentence* Summary:

No longer content to win football games solely by playing defense, the Iowa Hawkeyes are doing their damndest to win without utilizing the fancy-schmancy forward pass. Deacon “City on a” Hill threw for 37 (!!) yards in this game. And they WON.

The Iowa defense, virtue of two takeaways, a safety, and a grand total of 6 points surrendered, continues to be the Fighter/Thief that rolled for 18s in strength, constitution, intelligence, and dexterity. The Iowa offense continues to be… ...have you ever felt the need to burp, but had to really work for it, and then when you finally succeeded it was a disappointingly tiny burp for all the effort you put in? That’s the 237 total yards that Iowa burped up in this game. 82 of them came on a single play: the Leshon Williams TD rush, part of a 25-carry, 174-yard day for him (for an average of 7 ypc!).

State of our Open Threads:

Coming back to the matter at hand, we will talk first about engagement, which has been relatively flat all year because, on the whole, we haven't had much to worry about.

2.66 is the highest efficiency rating we've had all year, but it is still within the range where most of our more comfortable games in the Harbaugh era have been. After all, apart from a few fleeting moments of mild dismay, we did just fine yesterday, so bumps tend to smooth themselves out in this study provided we don't have too many.