10/7/2023 – Michigan 52, Minnesota 10 – 6-0, 3-0 Big Ten

A couple years ago I watched Michigan beat Ohio State for the first time since the paleolithic era and I couldn't really commit emotionally. I fundamentally could not let myself believe they would win. This feeling extended into the distance; even after it was clear they were going to win I did not feel the same kind of thing it appeared other people were feeling all around me.

The same thing happened last year. While I've made the argument that the postgame success rate/"it was just five plays" takes were bad, it is true that the nature of the game lent itself to believing OSU was far better down-to-down, at least through 30 minutes. Michigan was bleeding OSU down the field and relying on their short-yardage deficiencies to prevent points; Ohio State was maniacally determined to not let Hassan Haskins 2.0 happen to them. So you're watching this and it feels like Michigan is hanging on by a thread. Only in the aftermath do you realize that Ohio State decided to throw it to their tight end 30 yards downfield on fourth and two and played zero coverage on which two Michigan players could have scored easy touchdowns. Meanwhile OSU has the #2 pick in the NFL draft and Marvin Harrison Jr, etc., etc.

Michigan felt like an underdog.

Michigan is not an underdog anymore, to anyone, after comprehensive dismantlings of mid-tier Big Ten teams that featured Jack Tuttle snaps in the third quarter. It is deeply unfortunate that Georgia woke up after a sleepy start to the season and hamblasted Kentucky, because otherwise it would not appear that any team in the country is anywhere near Michigan. Other teams have bits and pieces: USC has Caleb Williams, Penn State has an elite defense, Ohio State still has Marvin Harrison Jr. But USC's defense can't do anything, Drew Allar has the lowest depth of target in the Power 5, and OSU just ran for 1.9 yards per carry against Maryland.

But, yeah, Georgia. And maybe Oklahoma. Michigan is a complete team but seems to lack a game-wrecker on def—

Let’s see how Mason Graham’s doing with that cumbersome club on his hand after missing the last 2 games.

Dear God. pic.twitter.com/kjU7fe4kz8

— Due# (@JDue51) October 8, 2023

Oh. Mason Graham is the #2 DT in the country to PFF, and he's a true sophomore, and he's wearing a club, and he's getting better every time we see him. You could say similar things about Derrick Moore, and maybe Josiah Stewart. On offense Michigan is settling into what looks like the long term answer on the OL. Hiccups in the secondary have another month to get smoothed over.

Michigan is this good, and it still feels like they've got another gear. If Corum gets back to where he was, if the arc read game comes back in important spots, if Derrick Moore continues to Ojabo, if Rod Moore gets all the way back, etc. These are usually the ifs you have when you're scuffling a bit. The ifs you have when you're undefeated but haven't played anyone and escaped a close one against a Nebraska or a Minnesota. It is almost literally impossible for a college football team to play better than Michigan… but Michigan can play better.

I have unlatched all the gates and pressed the button that says DO NOT PRESS UNDER ANY CIRCUMSTANCES. I glance over to Ohio State getting outplayed badly by Maryland until Maryland Marylands itself, and look at the teams across the nation and I think "Michigan can take these guys." It is possible that by the end of the season that everyone proclaims is wide open, it turns out it wasn't that wide open after all.

Just four more weeks of waiting before we start finding out for real.

AWARDS

Known Friends and Trusted Agents Of The Week

[Barron]

you're the man now, dog

#1 Mason Graham. Led the team in tackles as a DT. Had a thunderous, drive-stalling TFL and two sacks, one of which he was robbed of by a horrendous spot. Seems like breaking his hand has only made him more powerful. Ol' Murderglasgow is ascending to Mo Hurst tier.

#2 JJ McCarthy. A casual 10 YPA despite three drops, plus two rushing touchdowns where he juked tacklers, stiffarming one to the turf. Apparently did not get a sideline kiss, though, so there are areas for improvement.

#3 Will Johnson. Only did two things but the first thing was a tone-setting pick-six.

Honorable mention: Probably should throw in Kalel Mullings here for cumulative short-yardage success and a mansome blitz pickup. Keon Sabb also had a pick six. The Offensive Line kept McCarthy clean and led Michigan to 5.8 YPA. AJ Barner continues to mash face. Cornelius Johnson had a drop but also a circus catch on a deep ball, plus his blocking was improved. Josiah Stewart is getting after it.

KFaTAotW Standings.

(points: #1: 8, #2: 5, #3: 3, HMs one each. Ties result in somewhat arbitrary assignments.)

27: JJ McCarthy (#1 ECU, #1 UNLV, #2 Rutgers, HM Nebraska, #2 Minnesota)
22: Kris Jenkins (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 BGSU, HM Rutgers, #1 Nebraska)
13: Mason Graham (HM ECU, T2 UNLV, #1 Minn)
11: Mike Sainristil (T3 ECU, HM BGSU, #1 Rutgers)
9: Roman Wilson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, #3 Nebraska), Blake Corum (HM ECU, HM UNLV, #2 BGSU, HM Rutgers, HM Neb)
7: Braiden McGregor(T3 UNLV, #2 Nebraska), Cornelius Johnson (T2 ECU, HM UNLV, HM BGSU, HM Minn)
6: Kenneth Grant (T3 ECU, T2 UNLV),
5: Junior Colson (#3 BGSU, T3 Rutgers)
4: Ernest Hausmann (T3 ECU, T3 Rutgers)
3: Mike Barrett (HM UNLV, T3 Rutgers), Will Johnson(#3 Minn), AJ Barner (HM BGSU, HM Neb, HM Minn)
2:  Josh Wallace (T3 ECU), Derrick Moore (T3 UNLV), Jaylen Harrell (HM UNLV, HM BGSU), Max Bredeson (HM Rutgers, HM Neb)
1: Tommy Doman (HM ECU), Donovan Edwards (HM ECU), Tyler Morris (HM UNLV), Semaj Morgan (HM Rutgers), Colston Loveland (HM Rutgers), Quinten Johnson (HM Rutgers), Derrick Moore (HM Neb), Kalel Mullings (HM Minn), The Offensive Line (HM Minn), Keon Sabb (HM Minn), Josiah Stewart (HM Minn)

Who's Got It Better Than Us(?) Of The Week

Will Johnson picks off the second snap from scrimmage, more or less ending the game 12 seconds in.

Honorable mention: Pin and pull goes for 40, hooray explosives; Johnson hauls in a deep ball, hooray explosives. Sabb pick six. Mason Graham death squirrel sack. Leon Franklin gets his touchdown.

MARCUS HALL EPIC DOUBLE BIRD OF THE WEEK.

PJ Fleck's insane clock management at the end of the first half is rewarded with a longshot touchdown.

Honorable mention: Johnson drops a third down conversion so Michigan has to settle for a field goal. Minnesota outside zone does some work on the first two drives.

OFFENSE

[Barron]

The Mason Cole. When Cole was a tackle his standout trait was an ability to get blocks absurdly far downfield, and when Barnhart moved to tackle we kept talking about him like he'd be Cole. That was instantiated in this game when Barnhart got to the left edge of the field, from right tackle, on the long pin and pull.

Uhhhh. JJ McCarthy did something I complained about last year: he pulled the ball in the low red zone. I complained about this because doing this against zero coverage, which it always is inside the five, means that McCarthy is going to get an unblocked DB every time. And, yes, he got an unblocked DB both times. He then scored both times.

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=467

On the first he was fortunate to come up against a guy who's missed almost a quarter of his tackle attempts this season. On the second he got a redshirt freshman reserve corner who has missed a quarter of his tackle attempts this season. I guess you take the W against a team that can't tackle, but if we try this against PSU or OSU it's not going to work.

Dive stuff. Minnesota stuffed the Michigan dive by pinching their DTs and placing edge guys just outside of the zone where Michigan bothers to block. They then converted, but on a rollout pass that feels a touch risky. I'm sure they'll put in some tweaks/audibles to adjust if they get looks like that again; just kicking out the edge guy and blocking down on the pinched nose is an easy conversion. Speaking of that rollout pass…

Mullings, woo. I was pretty nervous* when that rollout happened and Michigan tossed a ball to a former linebacker who had not caught a pass at Michigan, but Mullings smoothly brought it in and turned it upfield like he does it every Saturday.

*[about Kalel Mullings's 2024 Heisman campaign, not, you know, the outcome of the game]

Hello again. Michigan pulled out the ol' pin and pull this week; I think they ran one of these last week but that was the first of the year.

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=181

Pin and pull has been a staple the last few years as a way to attack the perimeter, but the outside zone experiment saw it drop out of the playbook.

[Barron]

Zippity zip. Michigan converted a second and thirteen after one of their exceedingly rare TFLs suffered by dumping the ball down to Edwards and watching him make a linebacker look foolish. The endzone cam shot of this is going in the UFR because it really emphasizes how Edwards's crazy acceleration got him past the LB to the outside when it looked like the inside was going to be more profitable, yards-wise. I'd say Michigan should do this more often, except that everything they do is something they should do more often because it all works. (Except outside zone.)

Shots. Michigan took some in this game after a season largely eschewing them.

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=308

A second shot was to Frederick Moore and incomplete as the ball was pretty short, but as Todd Blackledge pointed out if Moore actually attempts to high point the ball he gets run over and a flag comes out.

The dearth of true deep shots is fine. Teams are choosing to bracket Wilson, leading to the festival of deep ins that are high-percentage chunk plays. This team has better things to do than try a bunch of sideline fades.

Block of the week, probably. Multiple people have already reached out to declare this Mullings blitz pickup decleater to be block of the week and they're probably going to be right:

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=493

That does not happen on blitz pickups. Usually the running back is fighting a losing battle against mass times acceleration. Kalel Mullings is not losing that battle.

The main competitor to this block is Barnhart getting on his horse on the pin and pull, but the pure visceral oomph of the Mullings block is probably going to win out.

Drops. We got five weeks into the season before our first drop-type substance. It was unlikely that the entire WR crew had turned into Jason Avant at the same time, and half of McCarthy's incompletions in this game were flat drops. Johnson had the drive-ender on Michigan's first possession; Edwards had a drop on another third and five. Meanwhile the above Loveland attempt looked like the safety dislodging the ball live, but on replay it was clear that Loveland was going to lose that ball without the intervention of the safety.

Michigan's still excellent in this department. McCarthy is 9th amongst P5 QBs when it comes to drop rate suffered, and PFF has Michigan for five drops this season; we have a difference of opinion on one. Also of note: Michigan is 14/22 on contested catches, which is a big step up from last year.

McCarthy? I mean, yeah, he did the things. Four of his incompletions were either drops or a missed opportunity from a freshman WR. A fifth was a pressured throw over Corum's head, and the sixth was a fade down the sideline on which the defensive back had definitively won the route. I do wish that McCarthy had come off of Moore on the coulda-shoulda PI, because Minnesota had busted huge on a Wilson drag route that was going to go for at least 30 yards.

Bill Connelly writes on McCarthy's quiet efficiency:

Michigan's J.J. McCarthy is No. 1 in QBR at 93.6, ahead of Heisman favorites (Michael Penix Jr. is second, Caleb Williams eighth) and sleepers (Dillon Gabriel is third, Jayden Daniels fourth). He's third nationally in completion rate, behind two guys (Oregon's Bo Nix and Florida's Graham Mertz) who average far fewer yards per completion. Nearly two-thirds of his completions (63%) go for a first down, and nearly one-fourth (22%) go for 20-plus yards. Not including the three sacks he has taken in six games, he's averaging 9.1 yards per carry on the three or so rushes per game he's compelled to take.

Give him those numbers with Penix's or Williams' volume of dropbacks, and McCarthy is a pretty clear Heisman favorite. A co-favorite at worst. But his 22.2 dropbacks per game are the lowest of anyone in the QBR top 15 and second-lowest, behind only Louisiana's Zeon Chriss, of anyone in the top 35.

Note that QBR is opponent-adjusted.

[Barron]

Henderson watch. I don't think I caught a single pass protection issue in my rewatch, and he performed on the ground. It feels like the wheels are going to have to come off for him to lose the job. Michigan did play Hinton in Tuttle Time, so he's healthy enough to reclaim the job if he plays better. Also he's not going to redshirt.

Feels like this competition is over and Michigan has gotten to more or less the preseason expectation after a strange detour.

DEFENSE

Rutger watch. Michigan scored 52; Minnesota had 52 passing yards. I asked Patrick if this counted as a Rutger and he said no, it has to be fewer, but Michigan had 64 return yards on interceptions. When you have more INT return yards than they have passing yards that's an Iowutger. I have spoken.

[Barron]

Weekly hey they got some yards. Minnesota's first couple drives featured successful runs, which was briefly disorienting because I have become very spoiled by this defensive line. Most of these were outside zone. This was fairly typical:

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=106

So 1) motion sucks Hausmann out of the box, 2) Sainristil is sitting in the RPO slant zone and 3) Colson just appears to screw up. This means the DL gets no support; Benny and Grant both lose, but in Benny's case he's never winning on a stretch play when the guys trying to combo through you never have to stop the double team.

Michigan decided they'd have to live with the RPOs and got more aggressive about this after the early success, whereupon Minnesota stopped running effectively. Michigan did get got on one RPO that was going to be wide open but got a bat-down to bail them out.

it happens [Barron]

The other thing. A touchdown yielded:

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=428

We had an extensive discussion on the podcast about this where it was asserted that Keon Sabb needed to get over the top of this, which I get somewhat because he's got nothing in his area, but looking at it again this is only a yard or two from the sideline. IMO, Sainristil just got beat. Not by much—he's a few inches away from a PBU—and I might not even ding the coverage if I was grading this. But it would be a pretty dang good play for Sabb to get over there.

getting better rapidly [Barron]

New guys popping. Josiah Stewart did some stuff last week that we had to grade on the Corcoran curve, but here he is giving a bull rush to the Minnesota left tackle:

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=290

That's Aireontae Ersery. Before this game had as many superfluous vowels in his first name as pressures yielded. FF had him for just three, with no sacks. Here he gave up two sacks on just 22 dropbacks; even after that PFF is grading his pass blocking as an 80. It appears that this is the season where any player we offer some mild critiques of immediately improves, so we've got that going for us.

Also of note is Derrick Moore getting to Kaliakmanis at about the same time on about the same rush.

[Barron]

The bats. Another game in which Michigan batted down a couple passes. This is a Braiden McGregor specialty at this point; his long arms and excellent timing have made him a menace on short balls and screens for a couple seasons. He's going to get a pick. I feel it.

Cam Goode: doin' stuff? Goode had an instant pass rush up the gut that Kaliakmanis was able to turn into an improv first down, but he continues to rotate in like Michigan expects he'll be useful in the season-ending gauntlet. He had 14 snaps and has been between 12 and 21 in every game.

PFF items. Michigan has the #2, #6, #16, and #69 defensive tackles in the nation. That's Graham, Jenkins, Grant, and Goode, respectively. They haven't been wild about Benny and they've probably been right. They have the #15, #23, and #55 edges—Moore, Harrell, and Stewart—and they're way down on McGregor despite our grading being very good. The back seven doesn't have anyone grading out of this world but if Johnson and Rod Moore get back to last year's numbers they'll be amongst the best in the country.

Also, some of the back seven grades are based on air. Paige has a 53; he's missed one tackle and given up two catches for 35 yards on four targets. He's had nothing to get graded on.

Walker back. 11 snaps for Amorion Walker, which is encouraging after there were some rumors he would be out for most of the season. He's obviously not going to press for real time this year but having him practice full go and get out there for extended Tuttle Times over the next three weeks will be useful.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Meh? Turner grooved a field goal down the middle; Doman keeps booming punts; returns were unremarkable. Michigan has fallen down the FEI special teams ratings to 43rd. The specialists are fine, but McGregor fumbling a kickoff sees them 130th in kick return efficiency and the two-headed punt return is pretty bad at 92nd.

If I was Jay Harbaugh I'd be demanding a Donovan Edwards punt return crash course.

MISCELLANEOUS

Buddy. You've got a big sign and you're scribbling out a message like it's a prescription for Ryan Day's Xanax.

[Barron]

You gotta pump up that font size, that's rookie font size.

What is your problem with spotting the ball? The number of flatly incorrect spots in this game was at least six, none more infuriating than this obvious sack getting taken away from Mason Graham:

https://youtu.be/pbj5CJBjDFQ?t=392

This was adjudged to be second and ten. (One dollar to the PFF grader who counted this as a sack despite the spot. Virtual fist-bumps.) Earlier, a clear second-and-goal touchdown was marked down after a debatable first-and-goal touchdown was also marked down, and somehow Donovan Edwards ended up two yards past the sticks on a play that was ruled down short of them.

Comprehensive. Yowza:

Did We Really Get Beat that Bad?
Net Success Rates in Week 6 pic.twitter.com/h4JfiZ8GOk

— parker fleming (@statsowar) October 9, 2023

Also look at the far left: GT, Iowa, and USC all won.

Penalties: we decline. Max Bredeson's holding call in Tuttle time was the first time Michigan had taken a penalty aside from a kick out of bounds in almost two weeks. That's nuts. Michigan leads the country in fewest penalty yards per game, although the sheer lack of plays in Michigan games is a factor. There's a reason the top 5 includes Iowa, Army, and Air Force. FWIW, MSU is 118. 

Larger picture. Still #1 in SP+. #2 behind Oklahoma in adjusted EPA per play:

Note the Penn State offense hanging out with Nebraska. Also, Iowa. You can see MSU just behind the Utah logo; they're hanging in surprisingly well on defense.

HERE

It's all cool man.

Between rule changes and the lack of serious things to complain about, it has been a mellow season generally, at least to the present.

How mellow, you ask? No, you probably didn't, but all the same, I will tell you.

Last night, using the efficiency ratings that I somewhat scientifically devised, was the most mellow we've been in a relatively calm season (again, to date - we've got six games yet, some of which will likely be a bit dicey at points). As I mentioned last week, anything in the 2.50 to 3.00 range generally means a comfortable, low-complaint victory in the Harbaugh era, but ECU and Minnesota sit far below that. I never really thought much about how to label the sub-3.00 games, but these might be described as the ones where, as John U. Bacon states, you might mow your lawn, but in a good sense.

Best and Worst:

Best:  Efficiency

I know I mentioned earlier that Michigan’s offense is currently #8 in the country per SP+, and as fans you’ve watched these games and see how good both the rushing and passing attacks have been.  In terms of raw numbers, they have a TD rate in the red zone of 78% and have scored 21 TDs in 28 chances, which is tied for 8th in the country.  For the past 2 weeks they’ve been a perfect 10/10 in scoring when they’ve gotten to the redzone, picking up 8 TDs and 2 FGs over that span.  They’ve only run 358 plays on offense over 6 games, which is one of the lower rates in the country, but they’re averaging nearly 7 ypp each time they do snap the ball, which is #18 in the country and mostly behind a bunch of Pac-12 teams and schools like FSU and LSU who have been in a lot of defense-optional games.  They’re averaging over 5 ypc despite shuffling around the offensive line, while also averaging 10 ypa in the air, #7 nationally and behind, again, some Pac-12 teams, LSU, and some academies who throw the ball a handful of times a game (though to Army’s credit they throw the ball nearly 16 times a game while confusingly-named Air Force throws the ball…4 times a contest).

Iowatch!

Futility Rate

Me, above: “their offense still occasionally moves forward and scores points.”

This graph: “the word ‘occasionally’ is doing a lot of work in that sentence, buddy.”

Question: should missed field goals count as turnovers or 4-and-out? I’ve included them in the latter.

Stat items:

According to CFBD, there are just six FBS teams with an offensive explosiveness score less than 1.30 (lower is worse) and a defensive explosiveness score greater than 1.50 (higher is worse): Akron; ECU; Marshall; JMU; Florida; and Michigan. Respectively, those teams were ranked 121st, 102nd, 62nd, 58th, 36th, and 1st in F+ through Week Five (as I post this, we’re still waiting on the “through Week Six” rankings to be posted).

However, there are inversely just three teams with an offensive explosiveness score greater than 1.50 and a defensive explosiveness score less than 1.30: Kentucky; Brigham Young; Georgia Tech; and Old Dominion. Respectively, those teams were ranked 24th, 51st, 82nd, and 100th in F+ through Week Five.

(In the graph below, the X-axis measures offensive explosiveness and the Y-axis measures defensive explosiveness. You can find Michigan's block M near the top center of the graph, uncomfortably close to the bad top-left corner.)

To me, though, the only conclusion we can draw from this data is that explosiveness is a very bad predictor of how good a team is. Think about it this way: if a team runs 50 plays in a game, and only one is “successful” (positive EPA), but it’s so successful it scores a +5.00 in EPA, then that team’s explosiveness score is 5.00. But if a team runs 50 plays in a game, and 40 of those are successful, but each one is only +0.50 EPA, then that team’s explosiveness score is 0.50. Which team is better? The team that had 80% of their plays be successful, or the team that had 2%? Assuming the team with an 80% success rate put together at least one touchdown drive and one field goal drive (at the very minimum), there’s a pretty clear answer.