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Michigan Hockey Season Preview 2023-24 Part 3: Returning Forwards

Michigan Hockey Season Preview 2023-24 Part 3: Returning Forwards
Alex.Drain October 2nd, 2023 at 5:00 PM
[David Wilcomes]

Previously: Defensemen, Incoming forwards/goaltending

Last week we covered the incoming forwards, defensemen, and goalies. Today we kick off part three of the 2023-24 Michigan Hockey season preview by covering the returning forwards. Though superstar Adam Fantilli will not be found in this article, there are still plenty of players to be excited about. 

Frank Nazar III

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 5-10/175 

NHL Draft Position: 13th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Chicago

Stats: 2-5-7 in 13 games for Michigan last season

Frank Nazar III is a returning forward for Michigan in the sense that he was on the team last season. But if we're being honest, he's more a true freshman than a sophomore. Nazar missed the first four months of last season with injury before finally returning to the lineup in mid-February and playing the remainder of the season. Though he did play 13 games to get acclimated to college hockey, that was not Nazar at 100% health and it showed. But based on what we've heard this summer, Nazar may be back to full health.

Nazar showed up to the World Junior Summer Showcase in July and looked like the Frank Nazar that USA Hockey watchers were familiar with. Our contributor Peter South summed it up as the following: 

Nazar finished the tournament as the leading scorer with 5 goals and 8 points, which included four goals and one assist in a 10-1 rout of Sweden. His ability to transition from defense to offense was unparalleled by anyone from any team and resulted in numerous scoring chances in every game. His defensive play was phenomenal, as he was always the first man over the boards on a penalty kill situation and was a consistent threat looking for opportunities to create offense while shorthanded

The general consensus from those who were in the rink in Plymouth was that Nazar was arguably the best player on the ice, which sounds much more like the player that I believed in during his draft-eligible season. Nazar was awesome with the USNTDP and I was a believer that he fell far too far in the 2022 Draft, which is saying something because he was picked 13th overall. In last season's preview, still relevant after a washout freshman season, I praised Nazar's speed, stickhandling, and finishing ability: 

(Nazar) drew plenty of debate in NHL Draft circles, but no one will argue that Nazar can fly. He's fast in a straight line, but also good on his edges, fluid crossing over, and with a full range of motion and ability to change speeds ... He pairs tremendous vision, soft hands, and an above-average shot to be an explosive playmaker ... Nazar has a shot that makes him a weapon from inside the hashes, where he does a lot of his work

For those who want a reminder of what a healthy Nazar looks like: 

We didn't get to see that player at all last season, but there were the occasional glimpses. His hands were on display for this goal against MSU: 

It just didn't seem like Nazar's body was ready to do everything his brain wanted to. His trademark electrifying speed was not present and was adjusting to college hockey with a suboptimal body condition all at once. It wasn't the right situation for Nazar to succeed, which is why I wanted to spend so much time in this section reminding everyone how good he is when healthy. He's one of the five most talented players in the conference and most talented player on Michigan's team when healthy. He looked healthy in the summer and hopefully he is now. 

Season Expectations: Nazar is the team's #1 center and if healthy, should be the star of the forward group. He should be a weapon you position in the inner slot to feast on the power play and should be a tremendous transition player at 5v5. He killed penalties for Michigan after getting healthy last season and I'd expect that to continue, where his speed and skill makes him a major shorthanded weapon who places pressure on the opposition. Nazar is going to play big minutes and given the assignments, big production should follow. Point-per-game production feels like a reasonable bar for a sophomore lottery pick getting top minutes, but there is so much talent in Frank Nazar III that he could well exceed that mark. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: returners who played more than that]

[Bill Rapai]

Gavin Brindley 

Year: Sophomore  

Height/Weight: 5-9/170

NHL Draft Position: 34th overall, 2023 NHL Draft, Columbus 

Stats: 16-21-38 in 41 games last season for Michigan

Gavin Brindley got a great gift over the summer, when both he and BFF Adam Fantilli were selected by the Columbus Blue Jackets in the NHL Draft, creating adorable #friendship moments. But at least for another year, Brindley will have to do it apart from Fantilli and that will be a big test of Brindley's game. Last season he thrived next to old #19, a perfect hustle winger for a dominant center. Now, can Brindley reprise that role with Frank Nazar, or do it on his own? We will see. 

Brindley's greatest asset as a player is his motor, which never stops churning. He never gives up on a play, whether it's in an NCAA game or over the summer in the WJSS. Peter summed it up well in July: 

Perhaps the most impressive attribute that stood out with Brindley at this tournament was when you watched him play, you could never tell the score of the game. His compete level during every single shift of the tournament was always at the highest level and whether his team was down by three goals or up by three goals, his high intensity level of play never wavered

That's Gavin Brindley. He makes up for his small stature by outworking the opposition, going into every corner, no matter where on the ice and fights for every puck. On the forecheck, it can lead to takeaways and goals: 

In the defensive zone, it makes the life for opposing offenses much harder and it's why Michigan trusted Brindley to play on the penalty kill as a true freshman. Because his 200-foot game allowed Brandon Naurato to use him in all situations, Brindley had the second-highest average time on ice among Michigan forwards behind only Adam Fantilli (19:15). Brindley doesn't have any individual elite, NHL skill but he is good enough at everything that his profile was enticing to the Blue Jackets in the early second round. That said, every so often you see a glimpse of high-end NHL talent: 

Brindley started last season a little slow, adjusting to NCAA size and pace, but by mid-season, he was turning it on. I wrote about it in February and from that point onwards, he was one of Michigan's best forwards. I don't expect that to change this season, but he will have to carve out a new role other than being Fantilli's wingman. Whether that is as a right wing next to Frank Nazar III or as a center, I'm not sure. Either one will force him to take on a new identity. I think the former is more likely, as Brindley's aggressive forechecking is best suited for wing where he can go into the corners unrestricted, but he has the capability to do both. 

Season Expectations: For Brindley, I don't think the reasonable goal is to surpass last season's point total. If he does, awesome, but he will have to do it without Fantilli by his side. If Brindley can match last year's total, that's a sign his game has progressed significantly. He will be on one of the top two lines, PP1, likely on the PK as well, a chance to impact his game all over. If the stats stay the same, that's a good sign. 


[David Wilcomes]

Rutger McGroarty 

Year: Sophomore  

Height/Weight: 6-1/200

NHL Draft Position: 14th overall, 2022 NHL Draft, Winnipeg 

Stats: 18-21-39 in 39 games last season for Michigan 

Michigan was so offensively talented last season that I could think "Rutger McGroarty was good but not really great last year" and then look up his statline and see point-per-game scoring with close to 0.5 goals per game. And the thing is, my initial thought wasn't even terribly wrong! McGroarty was good last year but despite his stellar scoring stats, there is more to unlock here. 

McGroarty, a one-time Notre Dame commit, was picked 14th overall by the Winnipeg Jets in 2022, one slot after Frank Nazar III went to Chicago. McGroarty is a muscular winger who likes to bang around on the forecheck and last season he did it on Adam Fantilli's left wing, opposite Gavin Brindley. He started off the season pretty well, slumped for awhile, and then heated up in the postseason. McGroarty scored one goal in both games against Wisconsin in the quarters, one goal against OSU in the semis, and then got Michigan's first two goals against Minnesota. After the game I summarized McGroarty's performance, featuring one of my best puns: 

- Rutger Hour: It was nice to see Rutger McGroarty get Michigan's first two goals on Saturday night. He's now scored goals in four straight games and has multiple points in all four of those games. Rutger had scored just twice in the second half of the season before heating up in the B1G Tournament and getting him to come along has been a sizable boost for the squad. Adam Fantilli and Gavin Brindley had been doing a lot of the heavy lifting on the top line, but McGroarty is now starting to finish the chances his teammates create, with both goals being heads-up, right time, right place goals

One of those goals was the following: 

That's a classic Rutger McGroarty goal, winning position with his size and finishing around the net. He's got some legit NHL finishing touch, as evidenced by his 18 goals from last season, but there is still room to grow. He scored a hat trick against Colgate in the NCAAs, which was followed by quieter games against PSU/QPac, but my analysis after that Minnesota game is still very close to my feeling on McGroarty right now: 

While (McGroarty's statline) looks pretty damn good to the outside observer, I think there's more here for Rutger to unlock. I'd be surprised if he signs with the Winnipeg Jets this offseason, so I'd expect him back at Michigan next year, where I could see a big jump being quite possible. He has room to become more consistent, a better playdriver, and his skating can certainly improve too

The skating improvement is the key to me, because McGroarty didn't look dynamic last season and struggled to dominate shifts as a result, especially while Brindley and Fantilli were flying ahead. He had great plays on the forecheck, but he will improve considerably if his mobility also improves. The good news is, Peter's summary from the WJSS in July indicated that Rutger's skating has taken a step forward, writing the following: "his first three strides from a glide appear considerably quicker and he seems to have increased his overall speed". Music to my ears! Last season Rutger was a complementary player on a great line, which is fine, but you want a lottery pick to be better than complementary. I think McGroarty can get there. 

Season Expectations: I want to compare McGroarty to a moderately similar player, Minnesota's Matthew Knies, now of the Toronto Maple Leafs in the NHL. Knies is a bit bigger and his hands are better than McGroarty's, but they are in the same ballpark size wise and are stylistically similar as bigger, power forward-ish wingers who do good work on the boards and on the forecheck. Though Knies was a 2nd rounder (which was quickly revealed to be way too low), he scored a similar line to McGroarty (15-18-33 in 33 games as a freshman) and then came back as a sophomore. Though his statline didn't improve, Knies was a faster, more creative, and more dominant player, driving play far better than he did previously. 

That's what I want to see from McGroarty. I don't care all that much if McGroarty's production improves or not. What I want to see is him dictating play, taking over shifts, and creating more of his own offense from increased skill and faster skating. It will be hard to match his stats from last season anyway, without being on Fantilli's line. Like Brindley, if McGroarty can match his production from last season while going from a complementary piece to a focal point, it will be a successful season. 

 

[Bill Rapai]

Dylan Duke 

Year: Sophomore 

Height/Weight: 5-10/181 

NHL Draft Position: 126th overall, 2021 NHL Draft, Tampa 

Stats: 18-14-32 in 41 games last season for Michigan

There's no way you can start talking about Dylan Duke without showing the goal that won Michigan the B1G Tournament last season: 

That play is a decent microcosm of Dylan Duke's 2022-23 season, still scoring close to the net, as he did during his freshman year, but showing more legitimate puck skill to score it, rather than being a greasy goal guy. Coming into last season I praised Duke's off-puck positioning and hand-eye coordination that allowed him to score ten goals, almost all of them within fifteen feet of the net. I wondered how a promotion into the top six from his freshman year's third line assignment would boost his production and whether Duke could improve his puck skill and a skater. 

Overall, he improved in those areas and his production jumped from 19 points to 32 and from ten goals to 18 in the same number of games. Duke did look a bit quicker and looked more credible as an on-puck creator, even if it's still not a major strongsuit of his game. Duke got much more power play time and he got to play with more offensively minded centers than John Beecher had been in 2021-22. He was still at his best showing his hand-eye in front of the net: 

He's great in the slot or screening the goalie, even if his undersized stature does not convey a netfront monster. Duke is strong and filled out for his size and you can't teach the feel he has for that position. On-puck, he's never going to be a major playmaker, but he's starting to become more than just a complementary garbage man and I'd like to see him take another step forward in that arena this season.

Another area that Duke could improve is his consistency, as Duke's production last season started very strong and slumped some in the second half. If he can be more consistent and round out his defensive game while he ascends in leadership that could set him up to be Michigan's 2024-25 captain, he will be a very valuable piece of this Michigan team. 

Season Expectations: Duke will likely be in Michigan's top six for the entirety of the season, either with TJ Hughes on the second line or Frank Nazar on the top line. In those roles, he will be able to do what he does best in terms of battling around the net and will get to do so on the power play quite extensively. I expect Duke to collect a lot of PP points and plenty more at 5v5. If he can be in the neighborhood of his point/goal totals from last season, that will be a strong campaign because I do think this Michigan team will be lower scoring. 

[Grace Beal]

TJ Hughes 

Year: Sophomore

Height/Weight: 6-0/185 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 13-23-36 in 39 games for Michigan last season

In May 2022, Michigan Hockey picked up a commitment from mystery man TJ Hughes. He was old (about to be 21 at the time) and had suddenly blown up into an NCAA caliber player during the previous season. After being a sub-PPG player in his AJHL career, Hughes' 2021-22 season saw him score league-leading point totals and in the process, pop up onto the radar of college teams. Michigan scooped him up but with so little scouting out there, I wasn't sure what to expect. Last season's preview was skeptical: 

Naurato's quote in the press release when Hughes was added to the team suggested that Michigan is taking Hughes as a scorer/PP contributor, but it's hard to see how he will get a regular top six role on this team, given the talent of the guys he's up against. Perhaps Hughes is simply ready to pop in the NCAA, but it's more likely that he's a developmental player

Turns out, he wasn't a developmental player! TJ Hughes was indeed ready for NCAA action right away. He was slotted high into the lineup right from the jump, playing in the middle six and getting PP time, and had two goals in the second series against BU. Hughes notched a pair of goals in the Saturday game against Lake State and was a reliable point producer throughout the first half of the season. There was a lot of reason to be very concerned when Frank Nazar's injury was announced, but the performance of TJ Hughes filled that void masterfully. 

Hughes was at his best on the power play, scoring five of his thirteen goals last season with the man advantage. I don't know how many of his 23 assists came on the PP, but I have to imagine it was a sizable share. He had a nose for the net and a craftiness with the puck between the hashmarks. The physical tools are not overwhelming, not a wizard of a passer or a great sniper, but is smart positionally and has enough skill in his game to be quite productive. Hughes did slump some in the back-half of last season, especially after the return of Frank Nazar III, but even in that "slump" he had seven points in eleven games to close out the season. I don't think there's a ton of upside here, but TJ Hughes showed himself to be a rock solid NCAA centerman last season and if he merely replicates last season, that will be fine with me. 

Season Expectations: For now, Hughes is penciled in as Michigan's 2nd line center. There is a world where Gavin Brindley is the 2C and Hughes slides down to the third line, but it is much more likely that Hughes leads the second line and Brindley stays on the wing. Hughes will probably be paired with some combination of Dylan Duke, Josh Eernisse, Jackson Hallum, and Nick Moldenhauer. I like the idea of giving him Moldenhauer, who can bring a bit more skill, and either Duke or Eernisse would bring a physical presence. On that line I'd expect Hughes' even strength production to be okay but him to accumulate points on the PP and something in the neighborhood of last year (or a bit below) is reasonable. 

[David Wilcomes]

Jackson Hallum 

Year: Sophomore 

Height/Weight: 6-0, 183 

NHL Draft Position: 91st overall, 2020 NHL Draft, Vegas

Stats: 6-11-17 in 39 games last season for Michigan

The Minnesotan winger arrived at Michigan last fall known for exactly one thing: his speed. It has colored every description of Hallum's abilities as a hockey player for years and when he took the ice in a winged helmet, it certainly popped. Hallum is really fast. Surprise! His freshman season was more about trying to figure out what else Hallum can do on the ice.  

Last season Hallum played on the third line, one centered by Frank Nazar III after his return from injury. Those two were dangerous in transition and effective PKers and as the year went along, Hallum slowly seemed to add more tools to his repertoire. He scored on a snapper right off the draw that surprised OSU goalie Jakub Dobeš in the B1G semifinals, the sort of subtle sign that his game was progressing. But in spite of these barometers of improvement, we were still left wanting more. David: 

We’ve seen (Hallum's) speed all year, but that kind of stickhandling, patience, and shot lift are all a bit inconsistent. As he grows and solidifies those areas of his game…look out.

In short, the speed was always there but the rest of the game was a mix of growth and remaining inconsistencies. Playing down in the lineup, that combination came out to just under 0.5 PPG. Fine, but that can be built on. As a sophomore, I'm looking to see Hallum show more signs of offensive creation ability in the offensive zone off the cycle. Can he become a bit more of a playmaker in-zone and can he finish more chances that his speed will create off the rush? If the answer to those are yes, then Hallum could be an intriguing and emerging top-of-the-lineup player. 

Season Expectations: I still think that Hallum will be a third liner, probably with Garrett Schifsky, but Hallum's progress as a player is a key to Michigan developing better depth scoring than they had a year ago. If his game has taken a step forward, then Michigan's bottom six starts to look quite a bit more dangerous. I like the odds of this happening, because Hallum is a talented player and Brandon Naurato was originally a skills coach... he ought to be able to round a speedster like Hallum into a dangerous offensive piece if given time. The finished product doesn't need to be seen this year, but a successful year sees Hallum get up to 10 goals and maybe 22 or so points, though ice time and role will hold back his scoring. If he can do that while still being an effective two-way player and PKer, that will be a good season for Hallum. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Mark Estapa

Year: Junior 

Height/Weight: 6-2/206 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 5-7-12 in 40 games for Michigan last season

Estapa is now an upperclassman at Michigan and through two seasons with the Wolverines, he's established himself as the team's feistiest and meanest player. Last year Estapa racked up 89 PIM, which ranked third in the NCAA and just a hair behind the top two. That's who Estapa is and who he's established himself to be. The "FREE ES-TA-PA" chants have become familiar at Yost but what else can Estapa do besides beat up the competition and (sometimes) cross the line? 

The offense hasn't really emerged as much of a threat, though Estapa did up his goal total from two to five. Last season Estapa played down in the lineup more than as a freshman, when he got a brief opportunity to play with the big guns, so his twelve points in 40 games isn't terrible. Unlike the final two players in this article, Estapa was a regular in the lineup, playing all but one game for Brandon Naurato's squad. But role notwithstanding, the offense still isn't really there yet. He had a pair of goals against Wisconsin in December and while there's a bit of skill in his game, he's still mostly a greasy sort of player: 

The lack of offense constrained him to a 4th line role last year and he got quite a bit of playing time, where he looked very comfortable and adept. That should translate and at worst, Estapa will be penciled into a fourth line role for 2023-24. Is there an opportunity for him to play higher in the lineup, as he did in 2021-22? Possibly, but I think that depends on injury and the transition of Josh Eernisse. If Eernisse hits it off and the team is healthy, the path becomes much tougher. But if Eernisse struggles to mesh with B1G pace/talent or a couple players go down, you could see Estapa jump up and with it, could come more scoring. His point totals late in the 2022 season show that, but I'm not sure how much more organic growth there will be in Estapa's game. 

Season Expectations: I'm mostly assuming Estapa will be on the fourth line and am setting expectations according to that. Another year older, I think Estapa should continue to impress a bit in his skill, but his linemates may be even less productive offensively if he's playing with Lapointe/Pletzke and Rowe/Draper. That will hold him back some, but I'm saying six or seven goals and 15 points would be a success, assuming that Estapa is also PKing and throwing his weight around. Minimal five minute majors would be nice too but I'm assuming there'll be at least one of those for a player who scraps like Estapa does. 

[Patrick Barron]

Philippe Lapointe 

Year: Senior 

Height/Weight: 5-11/185 

NHL Draft Position: N/A

Stats: 2-3-5 in 25 games for Michigan last season. 11 points in 50 games over three seasons for Michigan

Lapointe is one of only a few seniors on the 2023-24 Michigan roster and he will get to wear an "A" as a result. Among those seniors, Lapointe is the one that has played the least in Ann Arbor, caught between healthy scratch territory and true roster player territory for three years. This season, with even worse forward depth than the year before, there does appear to be a path for PLP to be an everyday player for Michigan on the fourth line. What he can do with that opportunity is another question. 

Lapointe's best moments to this point have come around the net, including rare opportunities to play the netfront on the PP. His best game last season was against Harvard on Black Friday and his offensive contributions to the game were very Lapointe: he screened the goalie to help an Ethan Edwards shot find the back of the net, redirected a puck that set up a Nolan Moyle goal, and then finished off a pass from Gavin Brindley at close range. His goal from that game: 

While that contest was a great showing from Lapointe, it produced 40% of his points for the entire season. His other great game, against Penn State in January, produced another 40%. In totality, he scored points in just three of 25 games last season. That's been the story of Lapointe's career to this point, passing moments where you think to yourself "hey, there might be a player there", followed by weeks of invisible play and rotation out of the lineup all together. Right now Lapointe looks poised for a role on the fourth line, assuming he can hold off Chase Pletzke, which will give him his first chance to be a night-in, night-out player, but will he be able to create more offense on a line featuring Kienan Draper? I'm pretty skeptical, but then again he was a high scorer in the BCHL with Trail and every so often a player randomly blows up as a senior (I will always remember the Mackenzie Nemitz 2019 softball season). You never know. 

Season Expectations: Last season I hoped to see Lapointe play a regular role on the fourth line and score five goals with decent defense. That didn't come true but like I said, the role should at least be there this year. The only competition is a zero-offense-in-the-USHL freshman (Tanner Rowe) and marginal-at-Miami-OH (Chase Pletzke) on a team that's carrying just 14 forwards. Given that they gave Lapointe an "A", I assume he'll be in the lineup on the fourth line, getting some PK duty. In which case, let's hope for last year's goal, five goals and ten points in regular work. 

[Bill Rapai]

Kienan Draper 

Year: Sophomore 

Height/Weight: 6-0/183 

NHL Draft Position: 187th overall, 2020 NHL Draft, Detroit 

Stats: 1-0-1 in 23 games last season for Michigan

Kris Draper's son played his freshman season for Michigan without doing much to differentiate himself in the memory of fans as anything besides "Kris Draper's son". He appeared in 23 games, a lot more than many remember, and produced one total point. It was this goal: 

What do I remember about those Draper games? Not much! Actually, nothing really. The Kienan Draper site tag was not used once by either David (for recaps) or myself (for weekly columns) last season after the season preview. When Draper was in the lineup, he wasn't playing a whole lot and was making very little noticeable impact on the game. That's not to say he was bad, he just wasn't noticeable at all, which definitely can happen with 4th line centers. Draper switched in and off from Michigan's fourth line but when the stretch run came, he was out of the lineup. His last appearance was the Duel in the D and was in the press box after that. Okay. 

That's a long way of saying that we still don't know much about Draper and what I wrote in last year's season preview still stands. Michigan took him because of his defensive abilities, smarts, and because he's a right-shot center. Naurato praised Draper's shooting when he joined the roster, but we didn't see a ton of that last season. Not enough was happening when Draper was on the ice for it to make an imprint on our memory. Draper's seven point USHL season in 2020-21 signaled that there probably wasn't much offense here and that was the case last year. It also leaves me rather pessimistic about the prospects of Draper providing much more as a sophomore, but just a little bit more mixed with strong defensive play is probably enough to put him in the lineup consistently. 

Season Expectations: Draper and Tanner Rowe are likely the two players locked in a battle for the fourth line center spot. Draper has the advantage of a year of experience in Michigan's system and 23 extra games of college hockey, so I think he has the leg up but it may come down to which player can kill penalties better and which game can provide more traces of offense. I think Draper is more likely to win that job, so I'll say he plays ~30 games and scores five or so points. Keep your expectations low. 

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gavin brindley
2023-24 michigan hockey preview
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Michigan Hockey Season Preview 2023-24 Part 3: Returning Forwards

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