Essentials

Overview

Bowling Green has a curling rink, which has always made me slightly jealous of Bowling Green. Also one time I went down there for a hockey game in the old CCHA days and Red Berenson may have nodded at us. These are my Bowling Green experiences.

When it comes to football, the Falcons have been working through it. They hired Scot Loeffler as their head coach in 2019 after firing Mike Jinks; Loeffler was already BGSU's OC. That's short for "this isn't working but we have no money." Since Loffler ascended to the head job Bgsu is 13-29 but there's been some upward mobility. BGSU went 5-3 in the MAC last year to reach the Quick Lane Bowl, where they were pipped 24-19 by Jerry Kill's New Mexico State. That was their first bowl game since BGSU's salad days in about a decade ago, when they had a remarkable run of coaches: Urban Meyer, Gregg Brandon, Dave Clawson, and Dino Babers all plied their trade at BGSU; three of the four used their tenures to secure P5 jobs that they've done well at.

So far this year the Falcons have lost 34-24 at Liberty and beaten FCS Eastern Illinois 38-15. Liberty has been a pretty good G5 team the last few years, so they might be competitive in the MAC. Probably not so much in this game.

[AFTER THE JUMP: "no"]

Run Offense vs Bowling Green

[Barron]

On some level this is more about what Michigan's doing than what Bowling Green is. Liberty went for 246 yards at 5 YPC against a Rodriguez-ish spread-to-run system before BGSU shut down EIU. If the Liberty OL is blowing out the DTs on the regular, as Alex documented, they'll suffer the same fate here.

How much it'll matter is up in the air. As detailed in the past couple weeks of UFR, Michigan is not the well-oiled machine they were a year ago, with rusty running backs, an attempted shift to outside zone that hasn't taken yet, and up-and-down play from the tackle spots. BGSU isn't going to show up with one of those Mike Danna types who occasionally develop in the MAC, per Alex:

Bowling Green has really rotated their defensive line this season, with only stand-up EDGE Demetrius Hardamon approaching solid starter status. … Defensive tackle is just as much of a rotation station. Returning starter Anthony Hawkins is their 285 "nose" and a decent player, while last year's 300 lb. backup DT Dontrez Brown starts next to him. They are clearly used more than their reserves, but those backups get a lot of play.

BG has not deviated from a 4-2-5 much this year; we'll see if they drop seventh(!)-year senior Davon Ferguson, their 185-pound nickel, for more beef when Michigan goes with bigger packages. BGSU is not going to bring something that is a paradigm shift in terms of personnel or approach.This defense was 125th in SP+ last year and 107th in FEI, which means they should be a step down from Michigan's previous opponents.

What this should mean in practice is that the interior OL beats up on guys, AJ Barner and Max Bredeson are getting their jobs done without much trouble, and the output of the ground game will depend on how consistent the tackles can be and whether or not the running backs are able to rekindle some of last year's magic.

KEY MATCHUP:  MYLES HINTON AND KARSEN BARNHART vs MINUS TWO BLOCKS. Collectively four in the last game against poor competition; hopefully we see some upward mobility here since the vaunted competition appears to be over.

Pass Offense vs Bowling Green

relevant, I promise [Patrick Barron]

Also: this is more about what Michigan does than what BGSU does to stop them. Last year BG gave up 65% completions, 7.5 YPA, and 29 TDs  vs 10 INTs against a mostly MAC schedule. This year they've played a run-first Liberty team and a bad FCS school… and they're giving up 60% completions and 7.6 YPA. It seems unfathomable that JJ McCarthy will not dice these guys.

BGSU does get after the quarterback; Alex charted them for a 31% blitz rate and they have seven sacks after two games after putting up 38 a year ago. Michigan had little trouble against UNLV; it is possible that BGSU OLB types give Michigan's tackles more of a challenge. BGSU is putting up some absurd win rates thus far. Edge/OLB types Cashius Howell and Demetrius Hardamon are both above 30%. Schedule strength, yes. But if something goes wrong tomorrow this looks like the most likely spot.

When McCarthy is clean, the opposition will die. Alex suggests that an opposition safety is a weak spot even relative to the rest of the defense

If you're looking for a weak spot in coverage to target, it's S Darius Lorfils, our lone cyan this week. Lorfils was the one pretty consistently on the hook for completions in this game, being targeted six times in coverage and somehow allowing all six to be completed(!!?!?!). … Bowling Green's defense isn't good enough that you have to scheme to get matchups, but pretty much anyone that Lorfils is asked to cover from his safety position is someone I'd have an eye on if I'm JJ McCarthy tomorrow.

MAC Lathan Ransom? Bet the over. (Never bet the Michigan nonconference over.)

KEY MATCHUP: JJ MCCARTHY vs NBA JAM MODE. He's on fire.

Run Defense vs Bowling Green

[Barron]

"No." –Michigan

[the sound of a man in dress shoes walking away, followed by a heated, just-out-of-earshot conversation, followed by the man being bodily shoved back into the room]

Ah, yes, let's continue with this section.

Last year BGSU played one P5 team, UCLA, and rushed for 1.5 YPC. The year before they went for 1.4 YPC against Tennessee and 0.9 against Minnesota. Their home stretch in 2022 went 1.7, 2.3, 2.4, and 3.5 YPC against MAC teams and/or NMSU. They did beat up on Liberty to the tune of 6.1 YPC, but that stands out as the outlier of all outliers, especially since they dropped back to 4.2 against Eastern Illinois.

There is no level of MAC offseason power-up that is going to get a team piloted by statue Connor Bazelak to have an acceptable run output against Michigan, which has barely ceded a successful play with the first (or second) string front seven on the field. I would give it an outside chance if the quarterback was suddenly a major run threat, and the second-string guy is, but even then… no. This goes double as it doesn't appear BGSU has a clear starter at running back—they've rotated through four guys so far—and if there was a guy who was likely to make up for what projects as deficient blocking BGSU would be riding him hard.

This will be a bust-or-stuff situation.

KEY MATCHUP: SETTING THE EDGE vs GOING OOH SHINY. Don't let anything outside of the force players and the DTs will eat.

Pass Defense vs Bowling Green

We already know how this is going to go, more or less. Bowling Green imported Connor Bazelak from Indiana (and Mizzou before that) this offseason and installed him as their starter. One wonders if Bazelak actually checked BGSU's schedule before committing, because when he was with the Hoosiers his line from last years game was 25/49 for 203 yards, one touchdown, one interception, and seven(!) sacks. At one point Jaylen Harrell kind of… smelled something? In Indiana's general direction?

[Bryan Fuller]

I don't know. Seems sketchy.

Anyway, Bazelak threw three picks against Liberty and got yanked for a more mobile QB; Alex charted him with a 39% downfield success rate. Also he was sacked twice and had four events Alex put in the "pressure" bin in our charting. We have long maintained that Indiana's offensive line is a nightmare buuuuut if this is what Alex is coming back with after charting a game against Liberty…

Put into obvious passing down situations without the help of deception or the threat of the run to alleviate pressure, the BGSU OL was devoured like steaks thrown into a lion's den:

Nate Pabst slid out to LT by this point and is beaten, LG Tunde Fatukasi is driven all the way back into Bazelak's lap, and the pocket swallows him up. On the four plays constituting that final drive, BGSU allowed sacks on two of them. I gave cyans to two starters and the 6th man, but a couple other players on this line narrowly avoided cyans and this is from a performance against LIBERTY. This OL against Michigan... they gonna die.

…Bazelak is going to be in the medical tent moaning "ahhh… snakes!" by halftime.

Alex did think WR Odieu Hiliare, an HBCU transfer who was second team All-MAC last year, was a dude. And, yeah, you can see it:

You can also see Bazelak put a five-yard crossing route two yards behind his receiver. This is our concern, dude. Alex also liked tight end Harold Fannin Jr, and Washington transfer Austin Osborne is healthy after missing most of 2022. Osborne led BGSU with 64 catches in 2021. If Bazelak is upright he will have some guys to target. The thing is: he will not be.

KEY MATCHUP:  CONNOR BAZELAK vs SNAKES. Ahhh!

SPECIAL TEAMS

Punter Sami Sir averaged 38 yards a kick last year, which isn't great, but held opponents to a total of 57 return yards on 70 punts, which is. This added up to dead average punt efficiency in 2022. Sir is an Aussie, so I imagine he's one of those rollout line drive guys.

The rest of BGSU's special teams were almost as far away from dead average as possible last year. FEI had them the #4 kick return team and the #1 punt return team in America. They were also the #129 team on kickoffs and #96 team on field goals. The kickoffs thing might be fixed since their new kickoff guy has a relatively normal touchback rate; last year Mason Lawler was abysmal at 28%. Lawler was also the kicker; new guy Alan Anaya is 2/2 on the season.

The punt efficiency was built on a punt block that led to a touchdown and then a steady stream of excellent returns that did not break long. Four different BGSU players returned punts a year ago; all of them averaged at least 12 yards a return. That's only 15 total attempts, but either BGSU has found out some magic wand to wave on punts or they're likely to regress hard. Jhaylin Embry, one of the options last year, has all three attempts this year and is averaging 3.3 YPR.

Meanwhile the kick return metric is always "did you score a touchdown," and BGSU did against NMSU.

In any case, Tommy Doman is likely to make BGSU return units irrelevant.

KEY MATCHUP: AHHH YOU PUT IT THROUGH THE UPRIGHTS

INTANGIBLES

CHEAP THRILLS

Worry if...

• Connor Bazelak is not removed from the game at some point.
• Tackles remain wonky without a peek at the other guys.
• Some of these innocent preseason injuries linger into week 3, raising the specter of Nikhai Hill-Green.

Cackle with glee if...

• Corum and Edwards are looking like 2022 versions of themselves.
• TV takes the opportunity presented by Scot Loeffler vs Michigan to run gratuitous Tom Brady highlights.
• McCarthy doesn't change anything.

Fear/Paranoia Level: 1 (Baseline 5; –1 for Oh Look It's Indiana's 2022 Passing Game, –1 for This Spread Is Somehow Wider Than UNLV, –1 for Unstoppable JJ Doom Machine, +1 for Scot Loeffler And His Shadow Staff Have A Mole In The Building!, –1 for Strong Possibility Michigan Gets Its Starting Secondary Back, More Or Less, –1 for )

Desperate Need To Win Level: 10 (Baseline 5; +1 for 40 Point Spread, +1 for You Just Know There's Like One Carr Loyalist Hanging On Like A Japanese WWII Soldier On An Obscure Pacific Island Who Would Use An Upset To Call For Regime Change, +1 for JJ Vibes Would Be Seriously Off, +1 for Losing Bad, +1 for AND They Could Chant "Just Like Possession Of A Curling Rink.")

Loss will cause me to... avoid sports talk radio for a week because every caller will be Lloyd Carr cutting Attitude-era WWE promos.

Win will cause me to...  all right, preseason over, time to get fired up for a game against [checks notes]… Rutgers.

The strictures and conventions of sportswriting compel me to predict: 

Resounding defeat for the interlopers.

Finally, three opportunities for me to look stupid tomorrow: 

• JJ McCarthy completes 79% of his passes, sending the Michigan internet into throes of recriminations.
• Connor Bazelak is not sacked seven times, because he doesn't play the whole game.
• Corum de-rusts and looks like Corum en route to 126 yards.
• Michigan, 39-8