Part 1 can be found here.

Part 2 is worse. Much worse. The teams are better, sure. It’s just that… oh, you’ll see. I feel bad, yet I apologize for nothing.

More Road Ahead

Indiana

Last year: 4-8 (2-7 B1G), no bowl game

Recap: In last year’s preview, I compared Indiana’s 2021 season (favorably, to be fair) with the Plague of Justinian. And by that standard, 2022 Indiana was pretty good. Way fewer boils. Significantly less vomiting. Generally less mass death and decay.

Indiana was still bad. Their two P5 wins⁠—over Illinois in the opener and Michigan State in mid-November⁠— were best described as “inexplicable.” Against Michigan State, they completed ZERO passes in regulation and managed to win. But they won. Which still counts. And they played Maryland, Rutgers and Nebraska close, and hung with Michigan for about 2.5 quarters.

Now they’ve been gutted by graduation and the portal. It might be Plague Time once again.

When last we saw them: Of all Michigan’s mediocre first halves in 2022, this one was EASILY the most explicable. Mike Hart collapsed on the sidelines in scary-ass fashion in the first quarter ⁠— reportedly as the result of a seizure, but I don’t believe that was ever confirmed ⁠— and the team seemed out of sorts for the rest of the half. Michigan pursued Connor Bazelak mercilessly in the second half (Seth’s UFR Pressure grade was +57/-3, which, and I quote, “Yikes, Indiana”; the Hoosiers fired their OL coach THE NEXT DAY) while outscoring the Hoosiers 21-0.

This was basically Connor Bazelak’s entire day [Barron]

This team is as frightening as: That feeling where you are half asleep and you can’t figure out if that gnawing anxious feeling in the pit of your stomach is a legitimate “did I turn off the stove” fear or a dream-induced “my 3rd grade teacher is suddenly my boss and says I didn’t turn in my homework” fear.  Fear Level = 4

Michigan should worry about: It’s been a long time since we had a Stupid Indiana game. A very long time. A suspiciously long time. We haven’t had a game decided by fewer than 17 points since 2018, and even the 2018 game wasn’t THAT stupid.

Where’s the “double overtime game where you scored on the last play of regulation” or the “Jeremy Gallon has 369 yards receiving” or the “John O’Korn throws for fewer than 60 yards in consecutive wins?” It’s out there. Lurking. Waiting. Hoping we drop our guard.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Indiana might have the least talented Big Ten roster outside of Evanston.

When they play Michigan: One last calm, stress-free fall afternoon before The Great Puckering commences in earnest.

First game: vs. Ohio State, 3:30 p.m., CBS

[AFTER THE JUMP: Look… I’m sorry, okay?]

Michigan State

Last year: 5-7 (3-6 B1G), no bowl game. None whatsoever.

Recap:

The name's Tucker, Mel Tucker. And I come before you good people tonight with an idea. Probably the greatest—Aw, it's not for you. It's more a *Baton Rouge* idea.

Now, wait just a minute. We're twice as desperate as the people of Baton Rouge. Just tell us your idea and we'll pay for it.

All right. I'll tell you what I'll do. I'll SHOW you my idea. I give you… the East Lansing Mel-o-rail!

I've sold Mel-o-rails to Boulder, Boulder, and… uh… Boulder, and, by gum, it put them on the map!

Well, sir, there's nothin' on Earth like a genuine bona-fide non-fungible ten-year guaranteed Mel-o-rail! What'd I say?

Mel-o-rail!

What's it called?

Mel-o-rail.

That's right! Mel-o-rail!

Mel-o-rail...  Mel-o-rail...  Mel-o-rail...

I heard our best players might leave.

There’s plenty more recruits up my sleeve, Jeeves!

Could we lose to Indiana?

Would you rather me be in Louisiana?

What about us brain-dead slobs?

You'll be given coordinator jobs!

Was it all just Kenneth Walker?

HEY CHECK OUT THESE BRAND NEW LOCKERS.

The top came off my secondary again.

I’ll take a peak in the portal, friend. I swear, it's Sparty's only choice! Throw up your hands and raise your voice!

Mel-o-rail...

What's it called?

Mel-o-rail...

Once again!

MEL-O-RAIL!

But the defense is still all cracked and broken…

Sorry, Mom, Ishbia’s spoken!

Mel-o-raaaail...

Mel-o-raaaail!

MEL-O-RAAAAIL!

MEL-O-RAIL!

Mel-o.... D'oh!

When last we saw them: Setting aside the Tunnel Incident, it was a standard “Michigan is significantly better than Michigan State” game: Michigan State came out with a lot of energy, made a couple of plays, caught a couple of breaks, and kept things interesting going into halftime. But in the second half, Michigan, in typical first-born sibling fashion, sat on Michigan State and slapped them with their own hands (the classic “quit hitting yourself”) until they cried uncle. Sparty gained exactly one first down in the second half before a final Defeated With Dignity drive in the final 5 minutes (which ended with a pick). Michigan didn’t punt until the final 6 minutes of the game.

This team is as frightening as: If a cyborg was sent through time to kill you and only you, a la the plot of the original Terminator, but instead of Arnold Schwarzenegger, the cyborg was an unarmed Danny DeVito. Yes, you need to take the threat seriously. But yes, his blood lust is also rather amusing.  Fear Level = 7

Michigan can sleep soundly about: According to Vegas, the advanced stats, and the eye test, Michigan State will probably be pretty bad again this year.

Michigan should worry about: …which will be relevant for exactly 11 of their games.

When they play Michigan: I have seen two separate and seemingly incongruous takes on the idea of playing this game in East Lansing at night. Some people say, “the people of the state of Michigan spend their lives interspersed with fans of both teams. It is the normal state of nature. Emotions run high, but this isn’t Columbus where the entire community treats anyone from the state of Michigan like the Umman Manda. People know how to behave.” Others say, “yeah they gon’ be huckin’ batteries at your ass.”

First game: vs. Central Michigan, FRIDAY at 7:00 p.m., FS1

Purdue

Last year: 8-6 (6-3 B1G), lost BTCG to Michigan 43-22, lost Citrus Bowl to LSU 63-7

Recap: Purdue won the Big Ten West.

I don’t know what that says about Purdue. Or the Big Ten West. Or where we are as a sport. Or as a society. Some people believe that everything happens for a reason, and that it all unfolds as part of grand design. Some people believe there is no fate but what we make, and that our path through this world is the result of our actions and decisions. Neither of these provides a sufficient, nor a particularly comforting, explanation as to how, or why, Purdue won the Big Ten West. So, we’ll just leave that fact sitting right there on the coffee table, staring into our souls demanding an explanation that will never come.

Purdue was outscored by 67 points on the season by FBS opponents. Seven of their eight wins came by one score; they beat Syracuse by 3, FAU by 2, Maryland by 2, Nebraska by 6, Illinois by 7, and Northwestern by 8. Those six teams finished a combined 33-42. Purdue allowed 5.9 yards per play in conference play, better than only Indiana and Michigan State. And yet…

When last we saw them: Purdue won the Big Ten West, and, therefore, Michigan played them in the Big Ten Championship Game. Purdue hung around-ish, trailing by only a point at halftime, before Donovan Edwards and Will Johnson played a game of Hi I’m A Five Star How Are You.

This team is as frightening as: Cornfield Engineering Nerd Michigan State, if Michigan State suddenly forgot how much they hated Michigan. Fear Level = 5

Michigan should worry about: If you’re replacing a long-time starter like Aiden O’Connell, you could do worse than Hudson Card, who played four full games last year at Texas (when Quinn Ewers went down) and threw for 8.8 yards per attempt in those games.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Chuck Sizzle is gone, as is Payne Durham. That’s two extremely reliable targets with 166 receptions between them.

Also, how do I say this without sounding overly harsh, but… there’s a chance new offensive coordinator Graham Harrell might be really bad at his job. He was the OC at West Virginia in 2022 when West Virginia finished last in the Big 12 in yards per pass attempt. He oversaw a steady decline into mediocrity in USC’s passing game from 2019-2021. His hiring at Purdue raised some eyebrows amongst people in the know.

When they play Michigan: I’d say this was a tricky spot in the schedule lodged between MSU and Penn State, but it’ll be coming off Michigan’s bye week.

First game: vs. Fresno State, noon, BTN

Penn State

Last year: 11-2 (7-2 B1G), won Rose Bowl over Utah 35-21

Recap: A very similar year to 2016, with eleven wins and a Rose Bowl appearance largely overshadowing a hamblasting at the hands of Jim Harbaugh. Outside of a wonky season opener against Purdue and said hamblasting in Ann Arbor, Penn State was remarkably consistent; their other 10 wins came by an average of 24.6 points (and all by double digits) and they played Ohio State dead even in Happy Valley.

And yet, the ham. It was blasted. Or did the blasting. I am unclear on the etymology of “hamblasting,” and as to whether the ham is the object or the subject. But the hamblasting DID occur.

When last we saw them: Try this. Start on the sidewalk in front of your residence, pick a direction, and start walking at a steady pace. Walk for a full five minutes. Then look behind you. That’s about 418 yards. Just shy of a quarter mile. That’s how many yards Michigan rushed for last year against Penn State. And that was with the end zone artificially stopping the meter four times.

The scoreboard said it was a beatdown. The scoreboard was being generous to Penn State.

This team is as frightening as: Running into this guy in a Cairo street market:

Pretty threatening, eh? Rather intimidating? But as they say, styles make fights, and we saw what happened between these two last year. Fear Level = 9… for now

Michigan should worry about: Penn State is going to be very good. It won’t be a night game. It won’t be a white out. But it’s still Happy Valley.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: So, let me make sure I understand this: you’re replacing a quarterback who threw for 11,000 career yards at 8 yards an attempt and accounted for 100 total touchdowns and won an average of 9.7 games per season in his three full non-pandemic seasons as a starter despite playing behind a Michigan State-level offensive line. And you’re replacing him with a guy who has 60 career attempts and who threw for 4.7 yards per attempt in Big Ten play despite half of those throws coming against Indiana and Rutgers. And THIS is the thing you’re assuming will take you to the next level?

Gotcha. Just making sure I understood the plan.

When they play Michigan: Call me old-fashioned, but it seems weird to start a season in mid-November.

First game: vs. West Virginia, 7:30 p.m., NBC

Maryland

Last year: 8-5 (4-5 B1G), won Duke’s Mayo Bowl over NC State, 16-12

The head coach of the Mayoland Terrapins has been mayoed

This is everything pic.twitter.com/PsuAhsueXZ

— Maryland Football (@TerpsFootball) December 30, 2022

I love this stupid sport

Recap: Maryland started out the season strong. Which is not new. But then they CONTINUED strong. Which is very new.

Sure, Maryland lost five games, but those five losses were to Michigan by 7, to LOL Big Ten West Champion Purdue by 2, at Wisconsin and Penn State with a hobbled Taulia Tagovialoa, and against Ohio State in a game they almost won. We’ll also overlook the fact that their only October/November wins were over Michigan State, Indiana (by 5), Northwestern (by 7), and Rutgers, four teams who combined to finish the season 7-29 in conference play.

When last we saw them: Michigan got September Maryland for the first time since the Terps joined the Big Ten, and our testudines friends lived up to their before-the-leaves-fall reputation. This was also before Michigan had made clear their tendency to play a ‘close’ first half and Yokozuna Banzai Dropping their opponent in the second half, so we got a little nervous.

Also, this happened.

This team is as frightening as: A butterfly. See, I was a mowing my lawn last week with my headphones on, minding my own business, and a big ol'butterfly flew directly in front of my face. In the abstract, of course a butterfly isn’t scary. But I nearly shat myself anyway. Timing is everything. Fear Level = 7

Michigan should worry about: Maryland has the second best returning quarterback in the Big Ten.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Michigan has the first best returning quarterback in the Big Ten. And is better at all of the other positions, especially along the lines. I just don’t see how Maryland survives in the trenches.

When they play Michigan: This game has all of the normal red flags for a “trap game.” It’s sandwiched between the two biggest games on the schedule. It’s on the road. It’s late in the season, when the weather gets blerg. It’s against a team with a veteran quarterback. And twice in the last five years Maryland took Ohio State to the wire in the penultimate regular season game.

First game: vs. Towson, 3:30 p.m., BTN

Ohio State

Last year: 11-2 (8-1 B1G), lost CFP semifinal to Georgia by *thiiiiiiiiiiiiiiiis much*

Recap: There is a concept in the game of chess called Zugzwang. Occasionally, a player will find himself in a spot such that any move he makes weakens his position, but he is nevertheless required to make a move. In the following position, for example, if it was black’s turn, black would prefer to remained parked exactly where he is. However, because he is required to take his turn, the only legal move is King to C7, clearing the way for the white pawn to become a queen. Ballgame.

That is zugswang: a situation where a player would prefer to stay where he is, but he is required to make a change.

Ohio State is in a fantastic position. No sane, rational analysis of Ohio State’s performance could reach any conclusion other than, “yeah man, keep doing what you’re doing.” They’ve won at least 11 games in each of the last 10 full seasons, and reached double digit wins in 17 of the last 18 full seasons. Ryan Day is 45-6 as a head coach at Ohio State, and 31-2 in Big Ten play.

But that “2.” Oh god, that glorious “2”. That “2” requires Ohio State to change something. Change what, you ask? WHO KNOWS. But over the last two seasons they’ve outscored their opponents by 600 points, they were a shanked field goal away from a national championship nine months ago, their recruiting is on pace for their fifth consecutive Top 5 class… and it’s their fans have Ryan Day on a Performance Improvement Plan. CHANGE SOMETHING. HIRE SOMEONE. FIRE SOMEONE. THIS IS UNACCEPTABLE.

When last we saw them:

There are real, structural football reasons why Ohio State struggles with Michigan. Ohio State is designed for the open warfare of the Asian steppe and struggles when forced to play phalanxball. They aren’t accustomed to playing a secondary that can play bend-but-don’t-break without actually breaking. Their Front 6 can’t play straight-up against Michigan’s numbers and girthitude, and their Back 5 can’t make up for it without exploding in a million pieces. These things have been discussed ad nauseum by many people much smarter and more technically knowledgeable than I.

But this isn’t just an X’s and O’s game, nor (to Ohio State’s lament) just a Jimmys and Joes game. Football remains a game of toughness, and that toughness isn’t the kind of “toughness” Ohio State tried to bring to the table in November. They tried to use physicality as a proxy for toughness. And in that regard, Ohio State was already tough as hell. They were tough as hell in 2021. They’re big, fast, physical, athletes who fly around with reckless abandon and little regard for their personal safety. But are they mentally tough enough for those vanishingly few times per year where they actually need it? Do they have, as the Youths say, That Dawg In Them? I am not in any position to judge… but Mikey Sainristil sure was, and he found them wanting.

Both teams will adjust before November, sure, and the and the meta game will never cease… but /taps wall/ buddy it sure seems like you’ve got some Johncooper in here.

This team is as frightening as: A Murder Hornet trapped under a Dixie cup on the dashboard of your car as you drive down the highway in heavy traffic. Yes, this thing is massive and terrifying. But you’ve solved the problem! For now. Kinda. But you can’t just hold that Dixie cup forever. And after your next move comes his next move. Fear Level = 10

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Ohio State will be breaking in a new quarterback. And eventually, one of these years, Ohio State will NOT win that year’s game of Quarterback Bingo. The laws of statistics dictate that they must, at some point, have a year where the most important position in sports doesn’t just randomly work out.

Michigan should worry about: … is VERBATIM what I said in the 2021 preview before Coleridge Bernard Stroud IV started his first game.

The quarterback position remains the most important single position in team sports. And the quarterback position will always, *ALWAYS* work out for Ohio State. I have accepted this.

When they play Michigan: Every Michigan-Ohio State game feels like The Last Game Ever, but this one is almost literally the last Big Ten Game ever. There will be more “Big Ten” games ⁠— hell, there will be a Big Ten Championship Game seven days later ⁠— and Michigan will play Ohio State until college football ceases to be a thing, but the Big Ten my late father (a Michigan State grad who passed away in the 1990’s) would recognize formally ends when Carl Grapentine thanks everyone for coming.

First game: @ Indiana, 3:30 p.m., CBS

 

Weatherman telling us it ain’t gonna rain [Barron]