You know what time of year it is... football content season!! No, not recruiting. Actual. Football. Fall camp begins tomorrow for the Michigan Wolverines and as the bell rings in football season, it's time to begin posting preview content on MGoBlog. The Enemy, Ranked is back for another season and as always, we're starting with the QB position. In contrast to last season, where most B1G opponents had returning QBs we were already familiar with, this season it's primarily new faces. Scratch that, a lot of new faces. Only two teams on the schedule are returning a QB who started a majority of games for them the previous season(!), three if you count Rutgers, who returns multiple QBs that combined to start the majority of games. Everyone's wearing nametags for our purposes, be it underclassmen moving up to starter or transfers who have been added to the roster. So let's get to know the opposing signal callers besides Taulia, who we already know: 

12. Indiana

The Indiana Hoosiers have yet another new QB (will have a new starter for the fourth straight year vs. Michigan) and it doesn't figure to be any of the three players who started for them last year. Jack Tuttle is now a Michigan Wolverine, Connor Bazelak is elsewhere on this list, and Dexter Williams' is still recovering from a torn ACL. Thus, the competition is between Tennessee transfer Tayven Jackson (younger brother of Trayce Jackson-Davis) and Brendan Sorsby, who was in the program last season, buried on the depth chart. Jackson was the higher rated recruit, a top 250 4* in the 2022 class, while Sorsby was a Who Dat 3* in that same class, making it a dynamic not unlike what we see with a certain team on this list in the green and white. The difference in this case being that the two candidates are in the same class, but the higher rated recruit is a transfer. 

As of right now, the sense is that this will be a battle that lasts through fall camp, perhaps all the way up to the season opener against Ohio State. Neither player has any experience to speak of, so it's tough to get a feel for what's going on here. Most expect it'll be Jackson because of the recruiting ratings, but I wouldn't be 100% certain. Either way, I don't really trust Indiana's coaching staff to get much out of their options and with so little experience + a choice between a talented newcomer and an untalented returner, I am very down on IU's QB situation. Maybe there's room for hope but I haven't seen any of these guys play and since Walt Bell is still the OC, they're going to be throwing screens the whole game anyway. Don't expect much production out of Indiana's QBs this year. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: this list gets less grim (eventually)?]

[David Wilcomes]

11. Rutgers

Hoo boy. The Scarlet Knights actually have returning production, which in theory is good. Unfortunately, anyone who watched Rutgers football last season is much less convinced that that is a good thing. Noah Vedral has moved on to new pastures (coaching, evidently), but Evan Simon and Gavin Wimsatt are still around. It seems like Wimsatt is the favorite to start in 2023, a responsibility he was definitely NOT ready for last year. Wimsatt was a surprisingly highly-rated recruit (though a hard faller, which is never a good sign) who reclassified up to join the Scarlet Knights mid-season 2021 and then got his crack at the starting gig in 2022. The results were mostly disastrous, 44.8% completion(!), 757 yards, 5 TD to 7 INT, 5.2 Y/A. The accuracy issues with Wimsatt, which date back to HS, are severe and debilitating. His big arm promised to upgrade the Rutgers offense from the supreme dink-and-dunk approach they had with Vedral, but right now he can't land it anywhere close to the target, which brings the Y/A crashing down with it. Wimsatt is a decent runner, better than what he put on tape last year, but a lot of work needs to be done to get Wimsatt to respectability, let alone strong play. 

Evan Simon isn't much different than that. He's got an extra year and a half on Wimsatt in the program and did seem farther along than Wimsatt, but we're splitting hairs here: Simon threw at a 57.7% completion clip, 4 TD to 6 INT at 5.7 Y/A. Also dreadful. Rutgers seems to prefer Wimsatt because of his arm strength and potential but Simon was better last year. It doesn't really matter because both guys were bad. Will they be better? Probably, because another year of coaching and reps should mean something. But good enough to get them out of the bottom tier of this list? Hard to see it given the level of play they're coming from and the track record of Rutgers QBs. They get to be ahead of Indiana because they have returning production but slot below the next team on the list because of the abysmal program track record at the position *points to Rutgers QB play since Gary Nova left*. 

10. Michigan State 

Last season I ranked MSU's QB situation near the top of the list thanks to Payton Thorne's penchant for dagger throws in the big moments, winning record, and overall solid level of play. That was a mistake because Thorne took a sizable step backwards in 2022, less accurate and throwing shorter passes that neutered the once-effective big play nature of the offense. Whether Thorne regresses again is now a matter for Auburn and Alabama blogs as Thorne has packed his bags and headed south. Michigan State insiders would like to tell you that Thorne was TERRIFIED about losing his job in the spring but those of us who combed through the spring game tape are quite sure there is no such basis to that claim. Thorne was imperfect, but neither Noah Kim nor Katin Houser were going to supplant him as MSU's starting QB. Now, they get to fight it out in his absence. 

Kim and Houser both have reasons for optimism, but also reasons for pessimism too. First, neither have really played at all in NCAA games... they've combined for 21 career pass attempts, all of which came last season. Nothing can really be gleaned from that. Kim was a rando 3* back in 2020, while Houser was a top 250 4* in 2022. Houser has the advantage in pedigree and Kim has the advantage in familiarity with the program/playbook. For most coaches, the latter tends to be more important when naming a QB and that's why Kim left the spring as the projected starter once Thorne bailed. What are my expectations? Not super high. Little experience, iffy pedigree (if it's Kim), no established track record of elite QB production under this regime, and whoever it is, it's a guy the staff didn't plan to start. That sets them back pretty far on our list. My expectation is something like Connor Bazelak and since Bazelak has actually played significantly in the NCAA, he gets to be one slot ahead of the Spartans. 

He'll be wearing a different uniform this fall [Bryan Fuller]

9. Bowling Green

In case you read the last line of that previous paragraph and thought "Connor Bazelak? He's not in the B1G anymore!!", you are correct. He's not. But he's still on Michigan's schedule, having relocated to BGSU and the MAC. It's a demotion from Indiana, for sure, but on the other hand he probably has a better shot at winning more than three games with the Falcons than the Hoosiers. Bazelak is not a good college QB, but he has 29 career starts and over 7,000 career passing yards, all of it in power conferences. That counts for something. 

There's also a chance that Bowling Green's offense is better suited to help Bazelak do well than Indiana was last year. Their decrepit offensive line and Walt Bell's All Screens offense were a rough combo for Bazelak, whereas Bowling Green returns eight starters and had a QB last season pass for over 7 Y/A (Matt McDonald). Bazelak, by contrast, passed for 5.4 Y/A at IU last season. Bazelak's completion percentage and Y/A were also much better at Missouri, which strengthens my thinking that he could be better suited to succeed in northern Ohio than southern Indiana. He and the Hoosiers were an odd fit that didn't work. I'm still not expecting much because I watched Bazelak last year. I know what he is, but I also know what QBs are also on this list. I'll leave him at #9. 

8. East Carolina

Perhaps the most surprising revelation in this entire article may be that East Carolina, a merely decent AAC program, has a projected starter at QB who has been in the program for three years *and* was a former 4* recruit. That would be Mason Garcia, who 247 thought was the 7th best Pro-Style QB in the 2020 class and the composite ranked right on the fringe of 3*/4* status. He was 377th nationally and then sat three years in the program waiting his turn to run the offense, which is a remarkable testament to the work that Mike Houston has put in to build this program. Not just that he could keep any QB with potential for three years as a backup in the age of the portal, but that he could keep that QB at ECU of all places. Hat tip to ya, Mr. Houston. 

Garcia is listed at 6'5, 242 lbs. and has a big arm, in addition to mobility at the position. The Pirates are bidding adieu to Holton Ahlers, the most accomplished QB in program history, but Garcia is the right mix of size and talent, and has had the requisite training, to succeed right away for ECU. I slot Garcia below the QB at 7th on the list due to lack of experience and generally temper expectations because he is a Group of 5 QB, but I see no reason to believe Garcia won't at least be a pretty good Gof5 starter given the coaching track record and his talent level. 

[UNLV Athletics]

7. UNLV

You may be surprised to find the Rebels here, but they return a legitimately good Group of 5 QB, a pillar of their squad a year ago, Doug Brumfield. The big lefty threw for 1898 yards last season on 64.6% completion, 10 TD to 5 INT at 7.5 Y/A while rushing for 261 yards (sacks included). He did it in only nine games, eight of which he started and finished. The team's record in the games he started and finished? 4-4. In games he missed part (or all) of with injury? 1-3. The four losses Brumfield sustained as a starter were all by seven points or less. The three losses UNLV suffered in Brumfield's absence were by a combined 91 points. Brumfield was essential to the success of the Rebels and they've gotta be pleased to have him suiting up for the squad again. 

As always, you have to adjust those stats based on strength of competition when dealing with a Group of 5 player. But this list is full of unsatisfactory names among the B1G QBs, either due to inexperience, pedigree, or performance (or all of the above). With that in mind, I have no issue ranking Brumfield here, because at the very least they have a QB who most of the time could be construed as "good". He's one of the MWC's top tier QBs and has handled a real passing workload (averaged nearly 30 pass attempts per game last season as a starter), unlike some of the B1G QBs on this list. I'd rather rank a good Gof5 QB who actually throws the ball 7th on this list than a bad B1G game manager who tries to grit their teeth through a 15 pass attempt game. 

6. Nebraska 

The Matt Rhule rebuild in Lincoln gets started this fall and he's imported a QB to hold the reins of the offense in Jeff Sims from Georgia Tech. Casey Thompson was still on the roster when Sims arrived, but the staff liked Sims enough in the spring that Thompson opted to head out (transferred to FAU). Don't worry, Chubba Purdy is still on the roster, but Sims is going to be the starter for Rhule's Huskers in 2023. Sims gives Nebraska more of a run threat at QB than Thompson offered, which is a decent idea given that the Huskers' offensive line is still under construction. But make no mistake, GT doesn't run the triple option anymore (I know, devastating) so it's not like Sims can't throw. He's not going to be as good of a passer as Thompson was, but he's not a total bum. For his career, he's at 57.5% completion, 30 TD to 23 INT, 7.1 Y/A. Not particularly good, but not atrocious. 

Sims won't light the world on fire as a starter, but he's a decent option for Rhule because he's played in 25 NCAA games over three seasons, bringing experience that few other QBs on this list have. Sims has also rushed for 1152 yards in his career (52 per game, sacks included) and at 6'3, 210 lbs., he's a bit of a burden to bring down. That combination of multiple threats and starting experience easily slots him in in the upper half of this list, but I'm not completely sold on Sims and Nebraska. It's an all new coaching staff and an all new QB, so we should be cautious about expectations and I prefer the safety/upside (as well as pure passing ability) of the next couple names on this list a bit more than Sims. But I can still easily see a case for the Huskers as high as 4th... it's not a great list and Sims has his strong areas. 

[Isaac Shubert/University of Minnesota]

5. Minnesota 

Forever QB Tanner Morgan has moved on from Minnesota, but we already got a glimpse of what it looked like to see the Gophers quarterbacked by a man with hair, thanks to Morgan's injury issues late last season. That thrust 2023 starter Athan Kaliakmanis to the forefront, getting his first NCAA start against PSU in October before starting the final three games of the season, including the Pinstripe Bowl victory over, uh, (*googles 2022 Pinstripe Bowl*) Syracuse! Kaliakmanis was a 4* recruit in the 2021 class, getting his time to study under Morgan and from the way that the Minnesota offensive staff approached Kaliakmanis' time at the helm last season, it doesn't seem like they were totally ready for him to be The Guy yet. Over those three games he started, Kaliakmanis attempted just 53 combined passes (~17.5 per game), including only nine in that memorable Pinstripe Bowl. 

So why is a guy who the coaching staff didn't want to throw the ball 5th on this ranking? Well, I, for one, think that Kaliakmanis has quite a bit more potential to tap into. In between games against Syracuse and Iowa where his workload was extremely small, he torched Wisconsin with a marvelous showing, 19/29 for 319 yards (11 Y/A), 2 TD and 0 INT. The Greek Gunslinger has a big time arm and legit height for the position at 6'4" and he's more of a rushing threat than Tanner Morgan was. He's gotten time to marinate in the program and now I expect them to let him off the leash more. There will probably be lumps in the process but that Wisco game makes me believe there's a higher ceiling here too. This grouping of 4-6 on the list are all pretty close in my mind, players with some experience starting but are dealing with either new schemes or increased responsibility. I think Kaliakmanis is a bit of a safer pick than Sims, but I rank him lower than #4 on the list because the pedigree is better for the next QB up. 

4. Purdue

Purdue??? Yeah, I'm a little surprised I have them here, but I am encouraged by the pedigree and production of Hudson Card during his brief starting days at Texas, mixed with the Air Raid scheme Purdue intends to keep running under new HC Ryan Walters and his OC Graham Harrell. The Boilers lost Aidan O'Connell to graduation but they landed a legit option out of the portal in Card, a former 4* (top 100) prospect in the 2020 class who got to play a decent bit at Texas. Card made five career starts across 2021 and 2022 and has attempted 194 career passes in the NCAA, which isn't a lot but also isn't nothing. He's played substantial snaps against Big XII competition like Iowa State, Texas Tech, and WVU, and has a career statline of 65.5% completion, 11 TD, 2 INT, 7.9 Y/A. I can be down for that. 

There will probably be some transition costs, as Purdue is rebuilding an offense after losing star producers and its coaching staff, but they don't plan to divert massively from their identity. Purdue is still going to be a passing team, as they've been for eternity, and Graham Harrell is a really smart hire by Walters, a smart guy himself. Harrell is a Mike Leach disciple from his playing days and has been the OC at schools like USC and WVU. I like the ability of Harrell to work with Card and put up solid production from the QB position that exceeds what Minnesota and Nebraska can cobble together, who are also working with new-ish starters (be it to their team or school). That a transferring Hudson Card is 4th on the list speaks to the rough situation that is the opposing QBs on Michigan's schedule, but I don't hate what Purdue is cooking here. 

[Patrick Barron]

3. Penn State

No team's QB hype am I more skeptical about than Penn State, where Drew Allar has somehow been getting more hype than even the OSU QBs. Why? Some combination of recruiting rankings (Allar was a top notch 5*) and Penn State fans being freed from The Sean Clifford Experience, a QB who was good enough to get you to 10 wins but never good enough to beat the two teams you need to beat for your season to mean anything. The moment that PSU lost to Ohio State, knocking them out of B1G East contention, Nittany Lion fans were clamoring to bench Clifford and play Allar the rest of the way. Was that a good take? Well, it would've made it harder for them to win out and win the Rose Bowl, but may have toughened up Allar. Make of that what you want. 

Regardless, Clifford led the team to a Rose Bowl victory over Utah and now he's moved on, bringing us to that great beyond that the Nittany faithful wanted so desperately. It looks like 6'5, 243 lbs. and is named Drew Allar. He's got ideal size and arm strength for the position, uses his arm angles well, can move around in the pocket, and yes, was a 5*. The same reasons that had us hyped about JJ last year are reasons to be hyped about Allar. The biggest concern I have about Allar, and one that did not apply about JJ, is the accuracy. McCarthy was >70% completion in HS as a senior. Allar was 59%. He sat at only 58.3% in the games he appeared in as a freshman last fall (PSU worked hard to get him into games in relief) and my review of the spring game tape revealed no increase in accuracy.

No it's not Joe Milton level of concern, nor Gavin Wimsatt level, but it is something that stops me from aggressively buying Allar stock. I think he'll be a fine B1G QB in year #1 with reason to dream about his growth as he gets older, but I'm not sure Allar will be anything beyond that right away, while his mechanics are refined to increase his accuracy. The Nittany Lions check in at 3rd on the list because even though Allar has no starting experience, I like his upside and ability to grow in an offense that gives him weapon, but James Franklin's QB track record is not as strong as the other B1G big dog with a fresh-faced starter (see #2 on the list). 

2. Ohio State 

The Buckeyes fall one spot to second this year, having sent CJ Stroud and all of his bizarre quotes off to the NFL. Their one-spot drop is as much a testament to the elite track record of QB play established under Ryan Day as it is to the weakness and uncertainty of QB positions on Michigan's schedule. Ohio State goes into fall camp with Kyle McCord as the presumed starter, but there will be an opportunity for Devin Brown to make his push. McCord, who was overshadowed by Quinn Ewers when both enrolled in Columbus in 2021, was a borderline 5* himself and has spent his two years on the pine waiting for this opportunity. Brown is a year younger, having redshirted last fall after being a 4.5* recruit in the class of 2022. As always with these guys, the options are talented. But who will produce?

Brown missed the spring game with injury, so we have next to no NCAA tape to go off of. McCord hasn't been able to put much more on tape; somehow he's attempted a pass in only 11 games to this point (58 career attempts), odd for a team that plays as many blowouts as OSU does. For comparison, McCord has attempted about as many passes in two seasons as Drew Allar did in one last year. Furthermore, nearly a third of McCord's career pass attempts came in a game against Akron back in September 2021 when Stroud was injured. We do have the spring game tape to reflect on with McCord, which didn't wow me all that much. He's more comfortable moving around than Stroud and I expect the QB run to feature more heavily if he is the starter, but his accuracy is definitely a step down (though in fairness, almost everyone's is compared to Stroud). McCord didn't seem to handle pressure well (which he faced a lot of... more on that in the OL/DL pieces) and forced some throws that make you grimace, the sort of errors we rarely saw Stroud make. 

Long story short, I expect McCord to be worse than CJ Stroud if he is the starter, based on what I have seen from him. But I do not expect him to be bad by any means. OSU is too talented to have a bad QB. If McCord is bad, then Brown will probably be fine. Depth matters for The Enemy, Ranked, even if there's generally little of it at QB in modern CFB. Ryan Day, for whatever you want to say about him, has proven himself when it comes to developing NFL passers. I'm not sure McCord or Brown will be that good in 2023 (I'd lean not), but track record matters. Even if the OSU starter this fall is merely "good/great B1G QB" and not "where in the top five does he get picked?", that's still top two on this list and may very well pass Taulia when it's all said and done. I give Tagovailoa the experience edge but even though we know so little about McCord/Brown, the OSU passing factory means a lot. Not like there was much competition for #2 on this list, either. 

[Bryan Fuller]

1. Maryland 

Taulia Tagovailoa was 5th on my list last year and now moves up to #1. He didn't really do anything spectacular to move up in 2022; if anything it was process of elimination. He's the only QB on this list who is likely to be good in 2023 AND has experience as a starter (either in general or at his current school). I do not think Taulia is incredible. I would not be surprised in the least if Drew Allar or Kyle McCord, or hell, even Hudson Card is better than him at the end of the '23 season. But for right now, Taulia is the safest and easiest bet, so he checks in at #1. 

If there are areas to Tagovailoa's game that did improve in his second season as a starter for the Terps, it would be that he reined in the backbreaking sacks that defined his game in 2021 and he improved against elite competition. Tagovailoa still has moments of erratic scrambling culminating in a devastating -15 yard sack, but they were less common than they had been in 2021. That's a positive. So was his better showings against the top tier teams, something I dogged him for last year: 

In the non-conference games against WVU, Howard, and Kent State, as well as the bowl game against Virginia Tech (sans a coach to, you know, coach the defense) and lower-rung B1G teams Rutgers, Indiana, and Illinois, Tagovailoa was basically flawless. He put up 17 TD to 1 INT at close to 75% completion(!) in those contests. Against Iowa, OSU, Minnesota, PSU, MSU, and Michigan, he threw 9 TD to 10 INT at 64.4% completion, with 6.5 Y/A.

In 2022, his performances were more evenly distributed. He was still strong against lesser teams, but actually worse against those punching bags. Instead, Tagovailoa traded it for more competitive performances against the big dogs, Michigan and OSU in particular. Between those two games, Tagovailoa was 46 of 66 (69.7%) for 500 yards (7.6 Y/A), 3 TD to 2 INT. He still made some mistakes, but the Terps were competitive in the second half against both teams. I'm not sure how much more room to grow Taulia has, but even what he is right now is a good college QB, very good in the context of a weak season for B1G QBs. There's a reason that an "SEC school" was willing to give him $1.5 M to transfer in the offseason. And just to solidify Maryland's ranking, should Tagovailoa be injured (always a concern with Maryland's OL), Billy Edwards Jr. is still around and based on what we saw last year, he is one of the better backups in the B1G (as a starter he'd be better than a huge chunk of the teams on this list). 

[Patrick Barron]

Where would Michigan rank? 

Pretty clearly #1. JJ McCarthy is a returning starter, just like Taulia Tagovailoa and has the added benefit of being a better QB than Taulia Tagovailoa. He's a greater threat in the rushing game (well, in the big games when the QB run is used), limits mistakes better, and despite struggles with the deep ball for much of the season, still put together a better Y/A clip than Tagovailoa (8.4 to 7.7). Taulia has an extra year of starting experience on JJ, but JJ was the better player last year and given that he's three years younger (and less experienced), it's reasonable to expect JJ will make larger improvements than Taulia in 2023. There are certainly still questions about whether McCarthy can take the next big step to be NFL caliber, but even the player he was last year is enough to slot him ahead of all the other QBs on this list who have played in the NCAA at all. Since I give a sizable amount of weight to players who have played substantial snaps in college games (eliminating McCord/Allar from immediate contentino), that locks JJ in at pole position if Michigan were included on the ranking. Unlike last year, when I talked up Payton Thorne (oof) and tried to serve a reality check about the Cade/JJ battle, you can't be mad at me this year!!!