May 8th 2023

Upon Further Review 2023: Offense vs TCU

May 8th, 2023 at 1:01 PM

Seth May 8th, 2023 at 1:01 PM

If Roman Wilson isn't a household name this time next year I'm coming for all of you. [Bryan Fuller]

Why is this coming out in May? Because I need the grades for HTTV.

Why isn't Brian doing it? Because it's May.

Where's the B1GCG? Brian already charted it, will write it up soon.

FORMATION NOTES: TCU runs out a 3-3-5 base personnel with a couple of hybrids, and moves them around for different looks. Often one of the hybrids is a 3rd safety, but one (or both) can also become 3-4 OLBs. It's most obvious against this covered formation:

This also lent itself to something like Mint fronts, usually having the hybrids follow Michigan's TEs and walking down another safety to get 8 in the box from a deceptively light pre-snap look. I just called this 335 Over:

And when Michigan showed a spread formation the same personnel became a Tite front. TCU calls #13 Dee Winters an "OLB" but I used "SAM" whenever referring to him.

SUBSTITUTION NOTES: Normal. Schoonmaker went out for the game after his long catch and Loveland-Honigford-Hibner were the TEs except when Bredeson was in for heavy stuff. Edwards the whole way at RB except short situations for Mullings—the one he fumbled he lined up as an offset fullback. Trente Jones came in as a 6th OL, and El-Hadi got a snap as a 7th OL. Wilson went out with a stinger early but came back. When they went 5-wide they just had Edwards and Loveland line up as receivers.

[After THE JUMP: Nose tackle got whupped and he don't care.]

Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 press	Run	8	Iso	Edwards	54	3.45
Epitome of smashmouth football. Zinter(+1) gets down to the WLB and Olu(+2) drives the nose out of the gap. Barnhart(+0.5) and Honig(+0.5) turn out their guys, trapping the CB outside. Schoon got blown back by the MLB's pop but the gap is big enough for Edwards(+2) to pop through then turn on the jets to turn 10 yards into a romp. Great speed by the FS to catch up and bring him down. Replay really shows how much Zinter bashed this open.
O21	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins Z-In	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 off	Play-action	6	TE Wheel	Loveland	Inc	-0.39
Three-man route is covered, puts it in the Buttzone, Loveland gets both hands on it but can't make the catch. RPS-1. (CA, 1, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+1)
O21	2nd	10	Pistol 2TE Str F-In	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 off	Run	6	Split Zone	Edwards	3	-0.15
Motion Loveland to basic SZ but blitzing SAM blows it up (RPS-2). Edwards gets what he can where Keegan(+1) and Olu(+0.5) buried a DT and picked off the MLB, but there's a free WLB that Schoon has no angle on.
O18	3rd	7	Gun Str Demi	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 press	Pass	6	H Drag	Wilson	9	0.75
SAM+MLB come, picked up, JJ can wait until Wilson(+1) clears the LB level then scoots for the first. (CA, 3, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+1)
O9	1st	Goal	Pistol FB Twins	3-4-4	3-4 Under	0 press	Run	9	Arc Give	Edwards	3	-0.10
Stacked box (RPS-2) has the FS meeting Edwards at the LOS. Schoon(+1) put his arm out on the crashing SAM and moves down. Tough read I'm not going to grade, but Edwards might've had a cut behind Schoon once he cleared the SAM. Instead he runs into the unblocked FS.
O6	2nd	Goal	Gun Str	3-3-5	335 Odd	1 press	Penalty	8	False Start	Henning	(-5)	-0.33
Henning(-1) doesn't line up on the LOS, realizes too late, doesn't inform JJ.
O11	2nd	Goal	Offset Twins	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 fld	Run	8	F Insert	Mullings	4	-0.03
TCU gets their NT blown up again by Olu(+1) and Zinter(+1) but get away with it because three LBs, a CB and the FS are slamming down at runs (RPS-2). WLB follows Loveland into the gap, Barnhart(+0.5) sees it, recognizes this is turning into a slant, and turns the guy inside to present a little cutback lane. Mullings burrows behind the blown out C, gets 4 yards on 2nd and 11. What are we doing here?
O7	3rd	Goal	Empty 4x1	3-3-5	Okie	3 press	Pass	8	Scramble	McCarthy	5	0.03
Flip Y presnap and Edwards on the LOS as the X receiver. TCU bring 6 against a 5-man protection (RPS-2) and there's instant pressure up the middle. JJ(+3) escapes, backs up to the 30 to get around the SAM and a DT, and makes it all the way to the TCU 2. (SCR, Protection 0/2, TEAM-2, McCarthy+2)
O2	4th	Goal	Offset Twins RB YZ	3-5-3	Goal	n/a	Pass	9	Philly Special	Loveland	-8	-4.35
M's take on the Philly Special is to have CJ block backside instead of crossing but with no crosser to fear the PS edge can come right at Loveland while the CB picks up the QB. Loveland(-1) needs to throw it away because a big part of the reason this is a go-for-it situation is leaving the opponent at their 2 is a good shot to get the ball back in scoring position. RPS-3.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 0-0. 10 min 1st Q. Wasted opportunities while Establishing the Run that TCU was already overplaying.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M34	1st	10	Gun Twins RB	3-3-5	404 Tite	2 bdy	Pass	8	H Out	McCarthy	-34	-8.63
The first pick six. JJ throws this too late and too far inside, Bell(-1) needs to fight for it though. (INx, 1, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-3)
Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 0-7. 9 min 1st Q. Old Testament God today.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Pistol Heavy 6OL	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 press	Run	8	Split Zone	Edwards	2	-0.35
Jones on as 6th OL, designed to go down the gut where TCU is overplaying, also Keegan(-1) doesn't react to the slant. Edwards(-2) bounces where there's a lane behind Bredeson(+0.5)'s kickout and Schoon(+0.5)'s blockdown with a chance to beat the aggressive safeties again, but he misses the lane and burrows into Schoon's guy. RPS-1 there's no threat of pass to hold them here.
M27	2nd	8	Pistol Wk	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 fld	Run	6	Duo	Edwards	4	-0.18
TCU gives M a 3-high look but safety is slamming down before a handoff because running on 2nd & long is what we do. Barnhart(+0.5)/Honig(+0.5) and Olu(+0.5)/Zinter(+0.5) come off extended doubles to get the MLB and WLB, but slammin safety meets at 4 yards. RPS-1.
M31	3rd	4	Gun Str Demi	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 fld	Pass	6.5	Hitch	C.Johnson	Inc	-0.44
Looks like PI live but actually the turf just got CJ, then CB kinda climbed over him trying to get the ball. That's still PI (refs-1) but understandable no-call since the WR fell down. (Not charted, Protection 1/1, Luck-2)
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-7. 8 min 1st Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Twins RB	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 off	Run	6	Jet Sweep	Henning	-5	-1.07
Hayes(+1) reaches the backside DE but blitzing SAM shoot the A gap (RPS-2, Hat+2). Mullings(-2) whiffed on his guy anyways so it wasn't going far.
M20	2nd	15	Gun Str Demi	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 press	Pass	7	TE Post	Schoonmaker	32	3.46
Check as they catch FS walking down (RPS+1). Three-man rush is stonewalled and run-expectant Frogs FS has no depth. Schoon(route+1) uses a headfake to pin the SS inside and create separation. Perfect throw makes it an easy catch plus 10 YAC. CJ(+1) had a block downfield if Schoon was able to shake loose. He comes up injured (shoulder) for the rest of the game. (DO, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2)
O48	1st	10	???	3-3-5	???	???	Run	??	???	Edwards	3	-0.36
Come back to this play in progress, looks like they pulled Olu and tried to run double split behind it. FS is waiting at 3 yards as usual.
O45	2nd	7	Pistol 2TE Tight Z-cross	3-3-5	335 Over	2 fld	Play-action	7	PA Flood	Loveland	16	1.26
PA takes out the LB level, gives JJ ages to throw (RPS+1). He wants CJ who gets tackled downfield (they call it). Time is running out and he somehow fits this over 2 guys to Loveland, who has to catch it at his waist since that was the only where to put it. Throwing into traffic usually isn't a DO but results-based charting, also threw this after he knew the flag was thrown so good risk. (DO, 2, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+2)
O29	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 press	Run	6	Buck Lead	Edwards	5	0.08
Clever trip by NT (Hat+1) to prevent Keegan from getting to the backside LB. WLB tries to shoot inside and gets buried by Loveland(+2)'s block on the DE but Zinter(-2) doesn't recognize his guy's a goner and stops in the companionway. Bredeson(+0.5) has two guys to deal with, squares on the inside guy to get him step in, then does what he can to make a lane for Edwards, who can't slip by that guy outside. EO1Q.
O24	2nd	5	Offset 2x2	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 press	Run	6	ZR Belly Give	Edwards	1	-0.43
JJ(-1, read-1) misses a good keep read as OLB is pinching even before the snap. Still a good burrow chance because Olu(+1) and Zinter(+1) scooped the NT to the MLB, but Barnhart(-2) gets crossed by the DE who stuffs it at the LOS.
O23	3rd	4	Offset Bone Y-Cross	3-3-5	Mint Odd	1 press	Run	7.5	Arc Give	Edwards	-1	-0.87
This is either Split Zone with no Arc Read, or it's Arc and JJ(-1, read-1) and Loveland(-1) didn't read the crash. Loveland turns the DE, but halts him enough that the give has a chance, except over on the frontside Keegan(-2) is way late coming off a double on the frontside DE and doesn't see the SAM run blitzing. That guy's angle was 100% at the RB so a correct arc read here is a likely TD.
Drive Notes: FG(42). 13 min 2nd Q.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M49	1st	10	Pistol FB Twins	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 off	Play-action	7	PA Post	Wilson	50	2.99
When this goes on the Worst Calls of the Century list in 2099 I hope they remember the Refs(-4) also put Michigan on the wrong 49 yard line after Rod Moore's interception was returned to the TCU 49. That matters when TCU bites on the PA again, and Wilson sneaks behind the defense. Ball could be deeper but Wilson clearly collects it, bobbles it as he falls butt-first, then catches it in the endzone. Unfathomably overturned on review.
O1	1st	Goal	Goal line	3-5-3	Goal	n/a	Run	10	FB Dive	Mullings	0	-6.68
Mullings(-3) drops the handoff. Also TCU collects in the endzone so ball comes out to the 20. Ref waives off a false start flag.
Drive Notes: Fumble. 3-14. 13 min 2nd Q. Tell me you didn't watch the B12CG without telling me you didn't watch the B12CG.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M26	1st	10	Offset 2TE Twins	3-3-5	335 Over	2 bdy	Run	7.5	Fake Arc F Insert	Edwards	3	-0.31
A good idea to use against a team that doesn't play the way TCU always does if you ever run the thing it's threatening that Michigan doesn't. Looks like they're setting up Arc but TE redirects inside and RB follows. TCU was already overplaying the middle and gives JJ a keep read that I'm positive is just for show. Olu(+1) ripped the NT out of there to create a tiny lane off the back of a blitzing WLB.
M29	2nd	7	Gun Str Tight	3-3-5	335 Over	2 fld	Pass	7	America's Rollout Out	Edwards	8	1.26
Rollout draws SAM up to take away JJ's legs so he tosses it to Edwards(+0.5) where he can set up a CB and dive for the 1st and change. RPS+1. (CA, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+1)
M37	1st	10	Gun Trips RB	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 fld	Run	6	Power GT	Edwards	8	1.04
So much room to throw if they would add an RPO here but power's nice too. Convoy arrives to find no edge, Zinter(+1) turns in the SAM correctly, Barnhart(-1) is tapping him to get the CB but Zinter's reading this right. Now there's an edge again but Edwards(+0.5) can churn out a few inside off a good fight by Honig(+1) plus another couple by himself.
M45	2nd	2	???	3-3-5	???	???	Run	??	Counter	Edwards	-2	-1.84
Come back to this late, looks like Counter. Also looks like it's in trouble as Bredeson(-2) kicks a crashing SAM and Bell(-1) is getting blown into the backfield. Keegan(+2) recovered to get outside Bredeson's mistake but Edwards(-1) wants to stab inside instead of following his lead blocker and misses his window to bounce this into clean grass. RPS-1 since they slanted at it, but the play has a way to deal with that and the free hitter stepped down inside (Hat-1).
M43	3rd	4	Gun 3x1 H-Zip	3-3-5	5-1 Odd	1 press	Pass	6	Snag	Bell	Inc	-0.78
Blitz picked up but Keegan is beat outside so JJ has to go before Olu gets the NT clear of his passing lane. Ball is outside Bell's frame, shitty field is shitty, and he can't adjust. Bad luck the NT was in the way of the lane, not on JJ. (MA, 2, Protection 1/2, Keegan-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-14. 9 min 2nd Q. The chart says go for it on 4th & 4 on your 43, fyi, but it's not by much and TCU's only had one mostly lucky good drive at this point.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Trips RB (X)	3-3-5	3-5 Odd	1 fld	Run	8	Belly	Edwards	0	-0.70
Time to set a down on fire. Covered formation with Bell ineligible and TCU is giving them the screen this threatens or any RPO ever conceived to sit on fake zone read belly. RPS-2 but I want to -3 it so bad.
M25	2nd	10	Gun Str H-Fly	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 bdy	Pass	6.5	TE Out	Loveland	14	1.93
Three-man rush gives JJ a super clean pocket to survey and choose Loveland coming open off a rub. Cade would have had the dumpoff to Edwards for the same yards but when you're JJ you can fire this right onto your TE's hands past the opposite hash so that's what he does. (DO, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2)
M39	1st	10	Ace 3TE	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 fld	Run	8	IZ	Edwards	7	0.71
Yeesh. Both safeties hammering down (RPS-1) and Hibner(-2) doesn't pick up the SAM, though he does a good job to stay on the LB without holding. Edwards(+2) has to bounce outside where Loveland(+1) got to a S and has him pinned so the Don can bounce outside two unblocked defenders and pick up good yardage. Probably has more after a strong-arm but goes OOB.
M46	2nd	3	Gun Ace (Y)	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 press	Pass	8	Arm Punt	Wilson	Inc(+15)	1.01
Keegan and Hayes allow a DE to split them and get right to JJ(+2) who spins out but now an LB is coming in to sack so he chucks it downfield. Wilson tries to come back to it but can't bring it in. The LB picks up a horseshit roughing the passer. (PR, 1, Protection 0/2, Keegan-1, Hayes-1)
O39	1st	10	Gun TTE (X)	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	3 off	Screen	7	PA Bubble	Henning	2	-0.32
More covered shit we haven't practiced. JJ checks the S who's backing out so it's not an RPO just a fake read. The PA sucks in the LB level and the DBs are all in the parking lot so this has legs. However both WRs go for the same CB when CJ(-1) should be getting set up for a convoy. Then JJ throws it short so Henning has to turn around then turn back up again, by which time the deep CB has come all the way down. (IN-screen, 2, Protection n/a, RPS+1, McCarthy-1)
O37	2nd	8	Gun Trips	3-3-5	404 Tite	3 fld	Penalty	6	False Start	Oluwatimi	(-5)	-1.12
Olu(-1) is off on the snap count so the others all start moving before he snaps it. Was gonna be a Power GT.
O42	2nd	13	Gun Trips	3-3-5	404 Tite	3 press	Pass	7	Sack	McCarthy	-7	-2.13
Amateur hour all of a sudden on this drive. Olu and Zinter get split, nobody picks up the WLB and JJ steps through one, has nowhere to go with the 2nd guy. (PR, n/a, Protection 0/3, McCarthy+1, Olu-1, Zinter-1, TEAM-1)
O49	3rd	20	Empty 3x2	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	4	TE Post	Loveland	Inc	-0.37
Hate to IN a guy for taking a shot on 3rd & 20. Pocket is clean, finds Loveland in single coverage with a step on the Thorpe winner but puts it too inside, PBU'd. Not particularly dangerous. (IN, 0, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-21. 1:39 2nd Q. Game theory: once you're past midfield with 2 TOs start burning clock.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M33	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	4	Corner	Bell	Inc	-0.96
0:47, 1TO. Protection is fine but JJ gets nervous, starts running to the LOS, goes for a well-covered Bell and it's PBU'd. If he stands in and reads he has CJ on a slant but not for a first down so this isn't that bad. (TA, 1, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-0.5)
M33	2nd	10	Gun Trips	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	4	Square In	C.Johnson	15	2.38
0:42. Give the man time he will operate. Finds a tiny spot to put it 14 yards downfield, puts so much velocity on it the LB in between can't get his hands up, CJ digs it out for him. (DO, 1, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2)
M48	1st	10	Gun 3x1	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 off	Pass	6	Fumble	McCarthy	-11	-2.90
0:32. Yikes. Has a long time but nobody's open, eventually Barnhart loses a DE and JJ(-3) starts running but thinks he's clear of the DE who knocks it out. It goes backwards and OOB--the way this game's going I expected it to be returned. (TAx, n/a, Protection 1/2, Barnhart-1, McCarthy-1)
M37	2nd	21	Gun Trips	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 off	Pass	6	Dumpoff	Loveland	7	0.21
Again nobody open vs 8. JJ has a lane to run for some but checks down to Loveland(+0.5) instead, who picks up a couple more but now they have to burn the TO. Had CJ on a comeback further downfield too. (TA, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-1)
M44	3rd	14	Gun 3x1	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	5	Arm Punt	C.Johnson	Inc(+15)	3.46
Olu(-1) loses control of the NT. JJ dodges the guy but now he's in panic mode, motions CJ deep and throws a 500 ball. THT isn't watching the ball just leaps into the WR (Hat-2) while the ball's still coming. Flag comes out. (Not charted, 0, Protection 0/1, Olu-1, McCarthy+1)
Drive Notes: FG(59). 6-21. EoH. Iced attempt is short and wide left, second one is pure.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M33	1st	10	Gun Trips	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 press	Run	7	Buck TG Read	Edwards	-2	-1.23
Backside read is correct, made (Read+). Loveland(+0.5) gets a good pin on the DE but Keegan(-2) overruns the WLB, who shoots into the backfield for a TFL. Edwards(-1) wasted a step stabbing inside when he needs to be on his hoof to the edge. RPS-1 safety was firing down and would have met the ball at 2 yards anyways.
M31	2nd	12	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	404 Tite	2 press	Pass	7	H Out	Wilson	20	2.90
Run blitzing 2nd & 12 (RPS+1) and all this room to find Wilson(-1). Ball arrives so perfectly Wilson can orbit inside and get YAC, but because the CB fell down overrunning him he stops and spins outside instead, giving the safety time to close the gap. (DO, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2)
O49	1st	10	Gun Trips RB (Y)	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 press	Play-action	8	Deep Post	Bell	43	1.71
The correct response to TCU's blitzball. Counter PA with a covered TE sucks in 9 guys, WRs are 1v1 with the rest of the field. Bell(route+) runs by a safety and pulls down a rocket from JJ placed where only his WR could get to it. (DO, 2, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2, RPS+1)
O6	1st	Goal	Offset Twins RB	3-3-5	3-4 Under	2 press	Run	9	F Insert/Slant?	Edwards	3	-0.16
I think this is a missed RPO- read because Bell looks back but the SS is hammering down on run action, so a slant here is open. There are 7 Frog jamming the LOS when Edwards gets to it so he puts his head down and takes what he can where Olu(+0.5) and Zinter(+0.5) doubled the NT, which is half the yards they need to the goal line so okay.
O3	2nd	Goal	Pistol FB Twins	3-4-4	Goal	n/a	Run	10	Iso	Mullings	0	-0.41
Gap forms with Loveland(+0.5) getting a good kick and Hayes(+0.5) running his DE upfield but TCU safeties are playing 100% run so there are two of them after Bredeson picks off a LB. Mullings(-2) can still plow into those two and get to the 2 or 1 yard line, but decides to cut inside for some reason, losing his momentum by bumping into Hayes, and now they're all over him.
O3	3rd	Goal	Ace Trips	5-3-3	Goal	n/a	Screen	9	Tunnel Screen	Bell	-1	-0.36
They're a man short before the snap and the SS comes inside both Loveland and Hibner to yell for the SAM to get over there. Unfortunately for us his misalignment has put him exactly where he needs to be to stop the tunnel screen we're running. Loveland has no angle on him and has to take the outside CB the Tunnel is supposed to pick, safety gets to level Bell on the catch. (CA-screen, 3, Protection n/a, Luck-2)
Drive Notes: FG(21). 9-21. 10 min 3rd Q. TCU's fuckups are as big as Michigan's but fortune turns them into gold.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O45	1st	10	Ace Twin Z-Jet	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 fld	Run	6.5	Counter Stretch	Edwards	3	-0.33
LBs buy the Jet so this looks like a chunk for a second (RPS+1) as the WLB gets stuck behind Hayes(+0.5). But Keegan(-2) loses his DE inside and that guy can pick off Loveland and CJ(-1) whiffs on THT. Edwards(-1) can still go through the CB or better yet hurdle him, but tries to bounce around him and ends up on the UDFA's highlight reel instead.
O42	2nd	7	Pistol FB Twins	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	3 bdy	Run	7	Buck Lead	Edwards	8	0.87
Loveland(+1) rocks his DE back, Keegan(+0.5) and Hayes(+0.5) and Hibner(+0.5) all get good blocks at the POA. The plan for the WLB is to have Barnhart dart behind Zinter, which doesn't work because TCU is overplaying any run, so even with all of these good blocks they deliver a defender to the gap after 2 yards. Edwards(+2) saves this by hopping outside of Hibner's kick on the SS and slipping the guy's tackle, tiptoeing down the sideline for the 1st down.
O34	1st	10	Ace 2TE	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 fld	Play-action	7.5	Flea-Flicker	Bell	34	2.91
Take what they've been giving you. Safeties hammer down at the handoff, Bell runs by one, easy money. (CA, 3, Protection 2/2, RPS+3, McCarthy+1)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 16-21. 6 min 3rd Q. Wish they'd taken this earlier.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M21	1st	10	Pistol Ace Tight	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	3 off	Play-action	7	Rollout	Bell	8	0.82
Instant pressure, sidearms it to Bell(+1) who dodges a couple of tacklers for a good gain. (CA, 3, Protection n/a, McCarthy+1)
M29	2nd	2	Ace 3TE	3-4-4	404 Tite	1 fld	Run	8	Belly	Edwards	-1	-1.14
Let's see if TCU is still selling out against the run: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 guys near the LOS at the handoff: YUP. RPS-2, Hibner(-1) let the SAM through to make it a TFL.
M28	3rd	3	Gun 4x1	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 press	Pass	6	TE in	McCarthy	-28	-7.32
The crushing Pick Six. Via Sam, they never got this play right in practice, and Weiss never should have called it. No PA so LBs are stepping into lanes, Loveland crosses inside the CB and JJ throws it right to the SAM dropping into it. Had a small window to find Hibner on a drag or a bigger one to Bell on a corner. (BRx, 0, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-3)
Drive Notes: Defensive Touchdown. 16-35. 2 min 3rd Q. Ohio State woulda quit right here.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M31	1st	10	Gun Str RB Tight	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 off	Pass	6	RB Dumpoff	Edwards	Inc	-0.89
Late WLB blitz opens up Edwards. JJ double-clutches to get the guy in the air, then wings it over Edwards's head. Woulda been 7-10 yards. (IN, 0, Protection 1/2, McCarthy-1, TEAM-1)
M31	2nd	10	Gun 4x1	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 press	Pass	6	TE Out	Loveland	Inc(+10)	1.84
TCU drops 8, M wants a stop route under but it's covered, and Bell is taken down and it's flagged. Goes to Loveland, not an easy catch at his waist and DB has good coverage, breaks it up. (CA, 2, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+1)
M41	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-3-5	3-2 Dime	2 bdy	Pass	5.5	Scramble	McCarthy	39	2.04
Five-man pressure picked up, JJ(+1) has a lane and goes, eating up yards as the LB can't catch him, Bell(+2) has a good downfield stalk block that JJ runs into then keeps going another 10 yards. (SCR, n/a, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+1)
O20	1st	10	Gun Wk RB Z-Orbit	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 off	RSO	6.5	QB Power GT/Bubble	McCarthy	20	2.59
Now we have reads? RPO holds 4v3 backside. Honig(-0.5) and Barnhart(-0.5) can't really get control on doubled playside DE but Hayes(+2) and Keegan(+1) are pros, as Keegan turns around to get a hard-charging MLB that Hayes arms away from the runner before taking out the WLB. Edwards(+0.5) pops the CB. JJ(+2) hops through that gap past the Nk safety (Hat+2) who can only watch the QB run by for a score. RPS+1: the SAM and SS were halfway to the other hash because of the bubble.
O3	2PA	3	Ace Empty RB-Flare	4-3-4	Nk Even	2 press	RSO	6	QB Power GT/Bubble	McCarthy	0	-0.97
Same play they just ran except it's a comprehensive failure. Playside edge is a DE who crashes (RPS-1), gets inside of Keegan(-0.5) as Zinter(-1) and Barnhart(-1) suddenly both lose their DTs (looks like they thought JJ threw the pass and gave up). That means JJ has to go before Hayes can get his key block on the MLB, who tackles 2 yards short.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (Missed 2PT). 22-28. 1 min 3rd Q. Why do we have to be down 34-16 to remember our QB has legs?
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 bdy	Pass	6	Deep Sit	Wilson	20	1.80
This is a "find space" reaction to the coverage as TCU brings 3 and has 3 LBs sitting at midrange. JJ puts it over them and right on the soft spot where Wilson can turn it up for a few more. Remember this one for the last drive. (DO, 3, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+2)
M45	1st	10	Gun Trips RB	3-3-5	404 Tite	3 press	Pass	6.5	Smash Corner	Wilson	Inc(+10)	0.80
SAM shows blitz, is picked up. Safety gets crossed by Wilson(route+), yanks, knows it. JJ knows it too, but that's before the throw which he wings out of Wilson's reach. (IN, 0, Protection 2/2, McCarthy-1)
O45	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-3-5	404 Tite	2 bdy	Pass	6	H Post	Bell	44	2.54
Slung. TCU drops two DL and brings 3 LBs, picked up. Bell(route+) crosses the safety who nailed him earlier, JJ bullets it 50 yards, and Bell can get to the 1 before he's tackled (review gets it right). (DO, 3, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+2)
O1	1st	Goal	Gun Heavy	5-3-3	Goal	n/a	Run	10	Tight Zone	Mullings	1	0.91
Olu(+1) and Zinter(+1) land on their DTs five yards into the endzone. Mullings dives into the carnage.
O3	2PA	3	Gun 3x1 H-Jet	4-3-4	Nk Even	2 press	QB Run	7	Lead Bash CT Keeper	McCarthy	3	1.03
We'll see this in 2023 and I may Sharpies it this offseason. It's Bash with the other RB leading, which gets the MLB and FS to bite hard (RPS+1) and holds the backside DE, who stops so JJ(read+) keeps. Olu(+1) bops the frontside DE, Zinter(+1) has a hard pin on the DT, and Hayes(+1) picks off the SAM as JJ walks in.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2PT). 30-41. 3 seconds 3rd Q. TCU fumbles their next play so offense right back on the field.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
O27	1st	10	Offset TTE RB	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	3 bdy	Run	7	F Insert	Edwards	9	0.66
Keegan(+2) wrecks the NT and gets to the MLB, dancing him downfield. WLB (Hat+1) thunks Bredeson(-0.5) who deals but is in the backfield so Edwards(+2) has to maneuver around that and the NT that Olu(-1) lost. He runs over a safety for a couple more.
O18	2nd	1	Pistol FB R-Flare	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 bdy	Run	6.5	Statue of Liberty	Wilson	18	2.05
Hahahaha. Actually punishes TCU for compressing in the middle, MLB is still stepping down when it's too late (RPS+1). Zinter(+1) gets the playside DE and rides him, Barnhart(+0.5) has an easier job but just as effective on the SAM, and then Loveland(+1) picks up the S and Schoons him out of the hash. Wilson(+2) does the rest, turning on the jets at the 25 and pinwheeling over a CB that CJ(+1) had locked up for a the score. Is that a lot of points? Don't care. Going on the all-time reel.
O3	2PA	3	Gun TTB	3-3-5	335 Odd	2 off	Run	6	End Around	Bell	3	1.03
Good ol' flip. Zinter(+0.5) out-lengths a DE trying to ride him. Barnhart(+1) rides the WLB into the CB that Mullings(-1) was supposed to get, CJ(+1) pops a safety, and Bell(+1) outruns the MLB and cuts between Zinter's guy and Barnhart to squeeze in the conversion.
Drive Notes: Touchdown (2PT). 38-41. 14 min 4th Q. Hood picks up a ? illegal block well away from the return after the ballcarrier was wrapped up to set M back to their 15.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M13	1st	10	Gun Str	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 fld	QB Run	6	ZR Power Keep	McCarthy	6	-0.13
Looks pre-called but well say JJ(+1, read+) sells it and gets the WLB on the backside edge to go hard at the pulling action. CJ(+1) has a good block but the high S on this side shuts it down after minimal damage.
M7	2nd	4	Gun Trips RB	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	3 press	Pass	7	Throwaway	McCarthy	Inc(-12)	-0.54
Three-man rush and the NT gets by Olu so JJ can't step up. He goes to chuck it away and Zinter(-1) is losing his DE right there so it sails. Refs-2 decide it's grounding and I call horseshit--every QB throws it over his guy's head in this situation and doesn't get called, and they let Duggan turf it 10 yards from the nearest eligible receiver in the same situation earlier. There are two WRs whose heads this goes over. (PR, 0, Protection 0/2, Zinter-1, Olu-1)
M7	3rd	16	Gun Wk Tight X-Fly	3-3-5	404 Tite	1 press	Pass	6.5	Throwaway	Edwards	Inc	-0.03
Olu and Zinter both have a shot to pick up the SAM but he gets in free. On 3rd and 16 there's no saving this; JJ runs away and chucks it over his RB. At least they don't call it grounding in the endzone. (PR, 0, Protection 0/2, Zinter-1, Olu-1)
Drive Notes: Punt. 38-48. 12 min 4th Q. Now the protection breaks down? WTH??!
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-3-5	335 Odd	3 off	Pass	6	Throwaway	Loveland	Inc	-0.70
This one's on JJ, since Edwards has found a place to sit near a 1st down and the 4-man rush is contained for long enough but he wants a flood. I guess Hayes loses a guy inside to make the timer go off but that's harsh. Cade woulda dumped it off by now. (TA, 0, Protection 2/3, McCarthy-1, Hayes-1)
M25	2nd	10	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	335 Odd B	3 off	Pass	6	TE Curl	Loveland	Inc	-0.35
Now he takes the quick dumpoff. It's there but Loveland drops it. (CA, 3, Protection 1/1)
M25	3rd	10	Gun Str Demi Z-Glide	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 fld	Pass	6	Scramble	McCarthy	1	-0.12
CUMONG. Playcall has all deep routes but if he's reading the smash there's a window to throw it. JJ doesn't, then Barnhart loses focus on the DT who spun to him and there's no room to step up so JJ runs towards the sideline where he has no room. (TA, n/a, Protection 1/2, Barnhart-1, McCarthy-0.5)
Drive Notes: Punt. 38-51. 8 min 4th Q. Weird punt where I think Robbins has an option to throw it.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M44	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 off	Pass	6	Comeback	C.Johnson	15	1.13
I really hate the play design here--there's nothing intermediate after many seconds in the pocket. JJ decides he's out of time, starts rolling, then throws a dart under tight coverage that CJ can dig out. He does. Or doesn't(?) but Refs+1 don't see it and we snap before TCU can challenge. Would really like to see the All-22 to know where everybody was. (DO, 2, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+2)
O41	1st	10	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	404 Tite	3 off	Pass	6	Comeback	Bell	Inc(+10)	0.52
Tempo(30) to avoid review. Again he doesn't like any of the routes and bails a clean pocket then chucks in the direction of Bell. THT panics and commits PI. I don't know how to grade this shit. (MA, 1, Protection 2/2, McCarthy-0.5)
O26	1st	10	Pistol Trips H-Jet	3-3-5	335 Stack	3 fld	Run	6.5	Power GH	Edwards	6	0.20
Tyler Morris as 2nd puller, TCU is slanting but Loveland(-1) doesn't catch that in time to get the MLB, which Edwards(+2) has to dodge. Want Zinter(-0.5) to get a better seal as he turns in the WLB. Don also has to dodge the safety since Morris took the CB. Think that's the play design and leave the S for the RB, but TCU rolls that guy so he's screaming down and in position to stuff for no gain.
O20	2nd	4	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 press	Pass	6.5	Loveland	McCarthy	Inc	-0.51
Blitz overwhelms the protection, not blaming Barnhart because he gets a hand on the DT and takes the SAM which is all he can do without help. JJ can't throw with a guy in his face and chucks it at the feet of Loveland as he's getting hit. (PR, 0, Protection 1/3, TEAM-2)
O20	3rd	4	Offset TTE RB (X)	3-3-5	404 Tite	2 press	Run	6.5	Inside Zone	Edwards	5	0.47
Bell releases which would be an illegal man downfield if pass. It's run; TCU slants and Olu(+0.5) and Keegan(+0.5) handle correctly to create a lane for Edwards(+1) to meet the low safety at 3 yards and run through him for the 1st.
O15	1st	10	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	335 Stack	2 off	Pass	6	Snag	Bell	7	0.30
Tempo(26) catches TCU misaligned, easy throw to Bell(+0.5) (RPS+1) underneath for a little YAC as a blitz is picked up. (CA, 3, Protection 2/2, McCarthy+0.5)
O8	2nd	3	Pistol 2TE H->Y	3-3-5	3-4 Odd	2 off	Run	6.5	ZR Belly Give	Edwards	-2	-0.59
Tempo(32). Read is irrelevant as TCU hurls everyone at the LOS so the charging safety can collect if McCarthy pulls. He should anyway. Belly is irrelevant because they have the backside DT wide and slanting. RPS-2.
O10	3rd	5	Gun Wk RB	3-3-5	404 Tite	3 fld	Pass	6	Scramble	McCarthy	6	1.15
CB blitz is picked up, JJ(+1) gets the first with his legs. (SCR, n/a, Protection 1/1, McCarthy+1)
O4	1st	Goal	Goal line	5-3-3	Goal	0	Run	11	Power	Mullings	-1	-0.75
M changes personnel so TCU changes late to wind clock. Guh. Another Michigan Special Fake Read or Godawful Read as JJ(-2, read-) has a CB alone if he keeps. Multiple LBs for Zinter to kick, Mullings can't quick shake the one Zak passes up. RPS-3. They burned 40 seconds of clock on a play with no chance of success.
O5	2nd	Goal	Gun Str R-Flare	3-3-5	Mint Odd	0 fld	Pass	8	Drag	Wilson	5	2.41
Killing us with the clock ticking down, finally snap at 11. Keegan gets stuck inside and loses a looping MLB blitz. JJ dodges that guy as the safety on Wilson falls down (Luck+2). JJ makes a perfect throw while getting tackled. And sometimes when you're on… (DO, 3, Protection 2/3, Keegan-1, McCarthy+2)
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 45-51. 3 min 4th Q. Lost a good minute of clock.
Ln	Dn	Ds	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Box	Play	Player	Yards	EPA
M25	1st	10	Empty 3x2	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 off	Pass	4	Scramble	McCarthy	5	0.09
0:52, 0 TOs. Zinter misses a simple stunt, JJ has to bail, gets away and gets OOB, Refs-1 miss a hold that brings down Bell. (SCR, n/a, Protection 0/1, Zinter-1, McCarthy+1)
M30	2nd	5	Gun Str Demi	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	4.5	H Flag	Wilson	Inc	-0.75
Three-man rush so JJ has a long time, throws the flag just as Wilson is stopping to stem inside. Wilson's correct. Safety has a chance to intercept, drops it (Hat-1). (BR, 0, Protection 1/1, McCarthy-2)
M30	3rd	5	Gun Str Demi	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Penalty	4.5	False Start	Zinter	(-5)	-0.39
Right side of the line goes on 1 clap, they call it on Loveland who's not even on the LOS but Zinter(-1) probably got the count wrong and communicated it to Barnhart.
M25	3rd	10	Empty 4x1 Bunch	3-1-7	3-2 Dime	2 fld	Pass	5	RB Out	Edwards	Inc	-0.16
Refs-2 let the Nk jump then hold the shit out of Wilson, grrr. JJ shorts an odd duck at Edwards that's emphatically broken up. Had to go because Hayes was losing his protection. (IN, 0, Protection 1/2, Hayes-1, McCarthy-1)
M25	4th	10	Gun Trips RB	3-1-7	3-1 Dime	2 press	Pass	5	Yackety Snap	McCarthy	-1	0.00
Game ends as it lived: a clown show. McCarthy(-3) isn't looking when the snap comes and fumbles it. Hayes(+1) rescues it and flips to Edwards and for a second there's hope but a guy gets into Don's legs as he gets it to Loveland. All they have to do is tackle but a safety comes in with the season's most obvious targeting (Hat-3), except the coward Refs-3 decide now's not the time to enforce the most hated rule.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 45-51. Season over.

I am very happy that you interrupted my May with this.

I'm sorry, I thought it was important enough to complete.

I particularly noticed how you reminded me of the two pick-sixes, the fumble at the goal line, and the failed Philly Special.

Four plays worth a combined 27 points for the *defense* in Expected Points. It's not every day you get an offense that spots its opponent four touchdowns. It's trying to study distant planets in a part of the galaxy with a quasar, a supernova, and two gamma ray bursts pointed at your face.

Pick sixes are literally the worst—when you apply EPA to entire seasons of data the top umpteen most situationally independent game-changing moments are always defensive touchdowns, scaling the further downfield the offense was at the time of the disaster.

When other plays do interrupt the list of returns to sender, it's because a team fumbled into the endzone from the goal line. To do that on 1st down is almost a pick six as well. The reason that—setting up your opponent on the 20—is such a big deal is the same reason it's wise to go for it on 4th down when you're close to goal line. If you set up your opponent on their own 1, the most likely result is a punt that sets you right back in field goal range. This also applies to taking an 8-yard loss on the Failed Philly. It didn't just wipe out a good Michigan scoring opportunity; it turned TCU's subsequent drive into an actual drive opportunity instead of a rescue mission.

You should be happy to know I spent much of January wondering what this game would have been like without those four moments (and those on defense).

Well here's a list of drives. There were many.

Touchdown drives of 75, 69, 56, 45, and 27 yards.
FG drives of 65, 63, 51, and 26 yards.
2 redzone turnovers after drives of 65 and 51 yards.
Three three-and-outs, a five-and-out, a six-and-out, and the last 4-and-out.
Two pick-sixes.

Michigan had 19 drives, and scored 9 of those, making it inside the TCU 2-yard line on two more.

I thought Michigan only had a few big plays and TCU otherwise bottled them up.

It *felt* like that, but the numbers don't back it up. Michigan's 1st and 2nd down success rate in this game was 50%, which was average for them this year. They did have a 7.7 average yards to gain on 3rd down, but that's on account of some super long downs after penalties or a backwards fumble. Their median 3rd down distance was five—again: average.

That said, there were a lot of times that TCU jammed the line of scrimmage and Michigan ran right into it. It's ironic that we didn't get one of many pairs of announcers in football who make everything about setting up play-action, because that was a big part of the meta game. Michigan's first run cracked TCU for 54 yards and TCU played pass on the ensuing play-action. But after that the Frogs were hell-bent on stopping the run no matter how many times a run fake got them scored upon. And Michigan kept running into it. Breakdown by play-type:

40 Passes for 211 yds (5.28 YPA).
31 RB Runs for 120 yards (3.87 YPC).
6 Play-actions for 151 yards (25.17 YPP).
2 RPOs: JJ's 20-yard TD run and same play to miss the 2PT.
2 QB Runs for 9 yards (one an 2PT).
2 Screens for 1 yard.

Throw in some

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