A quick word from the Stones: MICHIGAN NIGHT AT THE PISTONS is going to be Saturday, March 11th versus the Pacers. Not yet sure if they can wrangle Livers and Beilein for a postgame Q&A or something but I've inquired. Livers is playing 20 mpg these days, and we're trying to get the stadium announcer to switch to a Crisleresque "for THREEEEEEEEEEE" when he gets one. Get ya tickets here.

(Also they play Houstan and the Wagners tonight if you want to double-screen it)

THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

People forget, but exactly one year ago today that Michigan team that made the Sweet 16 for a fifth consecutive season was in almost the same exact position: coming off a recent road loss at Wisconsin and needing a win versus Rutgers to keep their hopes of sneaking into the postseason alive. Three big differences: 1) They only needed to beat one top-30 team on the road in the last two weeks instead of two. 2) It was at Crisler. 3) This time their coach isn't suspended.

This isn't *it* for Michigan's tournament chances. They could still pick up Q1 wins at Illinois and Indiana next week, or do something in the Big Ten Tournament. But it's fair to say that the Wolverines need to win at least two of their remaining road games. The win over MSU kept them at at 0.7 percent of getting in, and the 14th team out on Torvik's matrix. A victory tonight would move them up ten spots in that ranking, with a 13% of making it. Lose, and they have to win both of their other two remaining road games.

Since selling out the naming rights, the RAC isn't as intimidating. Oh it's still a surprisingly great basketball atmosphere, but Seton Hall, Iowa, and most recently Nebraska(!!!) all managed to pull off the feat this year. That's especially notable because this is arguably the best team in their Kenpom history, its only competition being the 2019-'20 season that ended minutes before tip-off against Michigan in the BTT at the start of the pandemic.

Steve Pikiell earned permanent MGo-Respect for building that team out of the Eddie Jordan mess. It took three losses in their last four games to move them out of the Top-25 to the fancystat sites, and out of the Others Receiving Votes of the AP. Buoyed by a win at Purdue and the same excellent defense that's been Pikiell's calling card, they're solidly in the Tournament field. They're also down one of their most important players, so not only could Michigan really use this one more than Rutgers, they actually have a chance to take it.

THE US

My graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Guessing Terrance Williams (knee contusion) and Jett Howard (left Sunday's game after coming down hard on his ankle) both suit up—they're both listed as questionable. Jett lost his star—conversation was before the MSU game.

THE LINEUP CARD

My graphic [click for big]:

A few new/rare designations:

• = Burlywing. We've been using the term forever; I can't explain why it's taken us this long to include it. I gave it to T-Will as well.
• = Ghost on offense. The Just-a-Shooter who doesn't even do that. Big who only score dunks and putbacks, or a guard who mostly dribbles it around and passes.
• = The pogo stick with a broom was something I brought out earlier this year for Virginia's Kadin Shedrick, a similar bouncy rebounding dunker type.

THE THEM

Getting Omoruyi away from the basket works but then you have to get the ball away from Omoruyi. [Campredon]

Rutgers got back all of last year's team but definers Ron Harper Jr. and Geo Baker. They're also missing Caleb McConnell, who's been out with a back injury, and starting four Mawot Mag. McConnell may be a bricker on offense, but his awesome defense and ability to get the rim were this year's defining principles. Rutgers was winning all year on defense, and taking McConnell out of it has been a Franz Wagner to Caleb Houstan level drop-off.

Mag was another important defender and an efficient cutter and late clock option. Not having Mag was a factor in Rutgers dropping road trips to Bloomington and Champaign; a limited and not-there McConnell was a major reason they lost to Nebraska and were getting pretty cut up by Wisconsin.

Even without him they're huge at the guard spots. "Point Forward" Paul Mulcahy is not the guy you would have pegged to grow into the lead generator of offense, but he's had a terrific renaissance as a senior. His three-point shot is back up to 39% after a season 10 points below normal, he's finishing at the rim (getting there was never a problem) at a respectable clip, and his ability to find teammates under the basket is sharper than ever. His 34% 2PJ however is one of the most-used bad shots in Big Ten, and all 15 of his made threes were assisted. So we're not talking about a 6'7" winger who's gonna pull up all over the place so much as a slasher you absolutely need to stay in front of. I don't know how Jett's ankle's feeling after he had to leave the MSU game, but I do know we don't want to see Joey Baker on Mulcahy for long stretches.

The guy Mulcahy is trying to find is Cliff Omoruyi, who is somehow not even related to former Rutgers forward Eugene. Cliff is that other dangerous Big Ten center I kept mentioning when I was talking about Hunter Dickinson finally meeting one when Purdue came to town. Omoruyi left his family to come to North America when he was 14, at which point he knew how to dunk and that's about it. A hundred pounds later, he's learned how to dunk on Zach Edey.

While not close to the insane rim protector Myles Johnson was in Piscataway, Omoruyi's leading the Big Ten in block rate, is third in rebounding, and the second-best at altering shots after the guy he posterized above. It also makes Omoruyi all the things we're mad at Hunter Dickinson for not being: athletic enough to switch, spectacular on the boards, and deadly when finishing off cuts and PNR action. Where Dickinson has fallen from All-American to not even remotely in consideration for all-conference, over the same period Omoruyi has progressed from the rawest big in basketball to a guy getting some NBA interest.

The things that make Dickinson a star are the things that Omoruyi lacks. He's grown up considerably from the guy who couldn't defend post-ups as a freshman, but his own paint game is lacking; Synergy has him shooting 43% this year on post-ups despite facing the same spate of wet mops as Dickinson, and getting singled by them way more often. His turnover rate also remains quite elevated, and he's only a 64% shooter at the line. Omoruyi will try a three, but if you get his 7th make in 30+ career attempts that's just bad luck on your end.

What Omoruyi shares with Dickinson is strong foul avoidance for a guy who's getting as many blocks as they do. In Cliff's case that means he can remain on the court for 30+ minutes. played to a draw last year

Loyola-Maryland transfer PG Cam Spencer was on a heater in Wisconsin, making his first four attempts from three on a 6/10 night. Even with 18 points on those ten possessions he wound up barely over 1 PPP thanks to four turnovers and his ongoing struggles inside the arc. Spencer can get his three off with little space, shooting the same 44% on catch-and-shoot triples whether it's contested or not because he's deceptively long-armed—shooting over Dug could be a problem. He does have to spot up; stepbacks and rolls off screens aren't really his game. If you keep him away from the rim you get a 28% runner; if you lose him you get a free layup or a 92% shooter at the stripe. Spencer is also a crafty thief on a defense; his signature move is to swipe while dropping. Purdue's Dakota Mathias came up as a Kenpom comparable. Spencer is guaranteed to annoy you terribly.

PF Aundre Hyatt is a burlywing you may remember from playing LSU in the tournament a few years back. He only shoots at the rim and the arc, but he's just 55% at the former and 29% on high volume over his career at the latter. That's up to 32 percent this year but if Myles Dread didn't give them too much trouble the diet version shouldn't be a major threat. Hyatt was coming off the bench for much of the season but drew into the lineup when even burlier wing Mawot Mag went out for the season versus MSU.

The guy drawing into the lineup for McConnell is Just-a-Shooter Oskar Palmquist, who's allergic to the rim and has scored 94% of his points this year off of assists. Synergy only has 17 possessions graded for him defensively but I thought he was responsible for a lot of the easy baskets Wisconsin was getting at the rim.

For the second half they turned to their 6th man Derek Simpson, a young Geo Baker-level bricker who's got some squiggle to his game. Watching the freshman you can see signs of the player he'll become, which is a heavy-usage point who takes every crack you give him and every shot you don't. He's been been a 20-30 minutes per game guy for much of the season with three starts in the non-conference portion, so Michigan is getting the more developed Simpson who's substantially cut down on the turnovers and is starting to get to the rim with regularity. If he could shoot outside he'd be a fancy pick for league future star. Right now he's kind of a big young X.

Bench.

We really hit the bench somewhere between Hyatt and Palmquist. The other guys are bit players who get bullets.

• C Dean Reiber thinks he can make threes but is only shooting 5/20 after making 7/12 last year. Inside he's just getting putbacks and assists at the rim.
• G Jalen Miller got most of his time early in the season and his only extended minutes since were playing out the laugher versus Minnesota. When in he just passed the ball. He takes one three a year.
• Freshman C Antwone Woolfolk is Rutgers Tarris Reed. He's shooting 69% from the field, makes 45% of his free throws, and commits 8 fouls a minute.

THE TEMPO FREE

Rutgers: Still Rutgers. They are 4th in defensive efficiency this year to Kenpom, and tops in the nation at forcing teams into late (read: bad) shots. That of course has had a lot to do with certain defensive specialists on the wings who are not expected to play tonight. The other part of that is Omoruyi to deal with at the end of every drive.

The injury to McConnell forced Rutgers to go with a lot more 2-3 zone against Wisconsin. They'll be a better at it, but you wonder how much of the thing they've been hanging their hat on was just him.

The way they generate offense is the pick and roll, and run-outs when those long wings poke away the basketball. The latter shouldn't be a problem for Michigan, but anticipating screens has been a major issue for the freshmen. Jett was improved after his embarrassing performance in Madison.

THE KEYS

Mulcahy is most definitely a headband guy. [Campredon]

Force low-efficiency shots. Yes this is just basketball but hear me out: Rutgers is 19th in the country in assist rate because they have three guys who can shoot from outside and an alley-oop waiting to happen in Omoruyi. If you play them sound, there's nowhere to go but Omoruyi post-ups or bad jump-shooters. Shot quality extreme.

Big 'em. Dickinson won both matchups last year (16 and 25 points on 15 and 19 possessions) but one of those players has progressed and the other has regressed. Even with Terrance Williams back, Michigan should be able to roll out the two-big lineup against an injured Knights.

Don't be what you've been all year. Michigan has the junior version of a freshman all-American, probably the Big Ten's only lottery pick, and another guy who's playing his way into the NBA, yet have blown a season of close ones because they have half-awake veterans and freshmen who constantly fall asleep. The way to beat Rutgers is to play consistent, sound, communicative defense that forces them into the jumpers they're terrible at, and fight like hell for rebounds. If the Michigan they have the potential to be shows up, there's hope. If it's the team that got them in the position they're in shows up tonight, it'll be a blowout.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Rutgers by 6.