1 hour and 17 minutes
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1. Basketball Post-Minnesota
starts at 1:00
How did we get to a throwaway year? We got fool's gold five-stars who weren't great college players, Frankie bolted for insane reasons, Llewellin got hurt, Michigan own-goaled themselves on Terrance Shannon, Hunter doesn't have the same motivation. Next year? Recruits aren't going to change things but could get everybody back. Year it's like: 2006, except we're not going to have a linebacker covering the slot...unless it's Moten?
[The rest of the writeup and the player after THE JUMP]
2. Football: What's Coming Back
starts at 32:57
Getting back the OL is a bigger deal than people realize: OL get better. Third cornerback? Odd they haven't hit the portal. They do have options: McBurrows, last year's freshmen, Jyaire Hill...got a long season ramp-up to get him used to playing in the system. One-game season? Or two if Drew Allar is ready. Easy schedules won't last because UCLA and USC will be on the schedule IMMEDIATELY. Coaching staff continuity other than Mr. Computer Crimes.
3. Football: What Happened in the AD's Office?
starts at 49:49
What does the way the Harbaugh situation down mean? Might mean Warde is out, or is being told to be out, or just that Ono isn't going to participate in the old song and dance that only Michigan would still dance to. Name one thing Warde's done? Seth: He's extracted at least as much money from the donors as Dave Brandon did without annoying me once.
4. Seth's Hockey Podcast
starts at 1:06:27
A lucky(?) three points at Minnesota since the Gophers clanged four off the pipe, but also a great way to utilize Michigan's speed. Like the lineup change because Samo is going to get his no matter what line you put him on. Getting close to being able to roll out three scoring lines when Nazar is ready. The league is suddenly a gauntlet.
MUSIC:
- "Bandages"—Hot Hot Heat
- "What Ever Happened"—The Strokes
- "Your Dog"—Soccer Mommy
- “Across 110th Street”
THE USUAL LINKS:
- Helpful iTunes subscribe link
- General podcast feed link
- Direct download link
- What's with the theme music
Frankie goes to the bathroom and isn't sure which toilet he's going to finish on.
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outsidethebox
January 23rd, 2023 at 7:40 AM ^
Beauty is in the eye of the beholder.
The OL controls a football game more than any other position group. Michigan is going to be very good next year-and, despite the hand-wringers, probably '24 as well.
I believe the Michigan BB coaching staff is very, very good. They are in a difficult position. It looks as though they do not have the guts to make the corrections that need to be made-it would not be popular. So maybe they are not as good as I give them credit for.
Joined: 01/23/2017
MGoPoints: 15677
goblu330
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:59 AM ^
The suspense is killing me. I need to know what these proposed corrections are.
Joined: 01/07/2022
MGoPoints: 9456
543Church
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:22 AM ^
Probably involve things like
1) Make shots
2) Don't miss shots
3) Stop the other team from making shots
Joined: 03/09/2012
MGoPoints: 8637
MGlobules
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:16 AM ^
Frankie says relax. I’m happy in Arizona, and under almost any but the present unlucky circumstances, you’re not missing me.
Brian says I’m doubling down on my bad theory, maybe because it’s been criticized as silly. You don’t choose objectively worse players over McDonald’s All Americans on the theory that they might not be brilliant or stay. Freshmen USUALLY don’t get it or all of it, and despite that Dylan has shown those guys got us four, five more wins.* Welcome to the brave new world of severely incohesive and unsettled college basketball teams, and to bad basketball. It, not Juwan Howard, is the 100-pound gorilla in the room.
Hunter’s not necessarily unmotivated, he’s doubled hard every time he gets the ball and the shooters can’t quite shoot well enough to get us over that calculated hump. It’s worth pointing out that if guys have jobs now, too, they may well be overextended sometimes. Good distraction from the fight for equal pay and worker parity, though. A calculated one. 99 percent of the fan base bit hard; players have no choice if positioned to. The few.
College sports: much, much further into the commercial crapper.
*One, two more buckets per game and Caleb is now a wealthier pro, last year a glorious success, so… in the same way we’re a very few buckets from 18-4, as Bronxblue pointed out yesterday. With a different narrative, too. Maybe. Complaining, bitterly, over the wounds that your teams inflict on you is mostly what twilight capitalism fandom is all about. But I’m not sure we should fan it. The outpourings around hoop around here already carry a kinda ugly tinge at times.
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 38565
matty blue
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:40 AM ^
there was a period of gary moeller's tenure where he was recruiting like absolute crazy. just incredible, highly ranked, huge upside players. but many of them just didn't pan out, for any number of reasons - grades, low motor / motivation, seeming lack of discipline (please note - this was just my impression from the outside, and this was long before the internet made at least some of this info seemingly more available) - it could've been anything.
at the time, i used to say that moeller was recruiting too many athletes and not enough football players. i think that's part of what juwan does, and part of what beilein did, too.
five-stars can be incredible. obviously. but you want to get the five-stars that are both really good at actual, winning basketball (this is way underrated as a trait), and interested in playing on the college level.
i would submit that the five-star guys that have not panned out weren't really all that interested in playing in college in the first place. they worked, they tried to win, all that, but their heart wasn't really in it. did caleb houstan ever seem all that interested in being here? not really, to my eyes. in a previous time, he would've gone straight to the draft, and that would've been just fine.
do i wish he hadn't come here at all? no, that's not it. not really, anway. i guess that just shows my old-man-itude. but guys that come and go without leaving more of a epitaph than, "highly rated recruit, never panned out in his one year here" don't interest me much.
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 28795
MGlobules
January 23rd, 2023 at 8:59 AM ^
Yeah, but he’s just not playing for our gratification, is the thing. He’s a supremely talented maybe slightly petrified KID, trying to do right by family, friends, country, himself, under the all too pitiless gaze of people who shriek over their narcissistic wounds when his act isn’t good enough for them. Just a bit more grace, appreciation, awareness might do us all good, but—it’s true—that’s harder to come by when the last vestiges of amateurism and play for the love of sport have been shrugged off.
Joined: 11/17/2008
MGoPoints: 38565
matty blue
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:13 AM ^
well said, and i completely agree that we as fans often don't show grace or understanding that these are, as you say, KIDS. we can all think of times where we've treated these kids as fully-formed adults, worthy of scorn and worse, for not living up to our own dumb, imaginary standards.
i realize, too - thus proving your point - that it was really unfair of me to single out caleb houstan specifically. i don't know him, i don't know what he's like, or have any idea what his campus experience was like. maybe he loved every minute of it. i hope that was the case - exposure to a michigan education and michigan facilities are truly a gift to be treasured, and i hope he didn't treat his year as something to be endured on his way somewhere else. not every one-and-done does that, of course, but if they do? as hyman roth says, "this is the life we have chosen." if we want to win championships, the odds of doing so without recruiting at a really, really high level are so vanishingly small as to be nonexistent. sometimes the five-stars turn out to be worth it, sometimes they don't, but you have to keep trying to get them.
it's funny, too - we've had any number of TWO-and-dones...trey burke came here hoping to make the nba, and seriously considered going pro after his freshman year. franz, too. would i say the same of them, if they'd gone a year earlier? hmmm...dunno. neither of them were fully-formed, ready to go after one season. at least we thought not, right? who's to say?
i don't really have a point here, except to say i wish we still had moussa diabate and david dejulius.
Joined: 08/01/2008
MGoPoints: 28795
Seth
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:38 AM ^
The system in basketball right now is just really weird, but also what Brian is talking about is there's currently a disconnect between recruiting rankings, which are mostly based on NBA potential, and value to a college basketball program.
What Michigan got in its two five-stars last year was not what you would expect from their ratings and rankings, but it was well within range of what you would expect from their scouting reports. Diabate was a raw NBA body. Houstan was a 6'8" guy who was hitting 50% of his threes on one of the most loaded high school teams of all time. As one-and-done players their value to a college basketball program wasn't much higher than replacement-level, because players tend to improve as they develop through playing time and offseasons. Michigan burned a year of development time on both guys and got neither back, so their total value to Michigan was one-year replacement-level players who made a lot of freshman mistakes that cost them early so they limped into the Tournament with an 11-seed, but also developed over the course of the season, which got them back to the Sweet 16.
The Zion 5-stars who come in and immediately bend the game around them are well worth going after, but if you're going to put in the recruiting effort for a 5-star and wind up with one-year Josh Christopher, Isaiah Todd, Moussa Diabate, or Caleb Houstan, what are you really getting? If Michigan recruited guys who were of less interest to the NBA that they could develop--more Kobe Bufkin-level players--with that recruiting energy, wouldn't they have a better team this year?
It's not like this is unprecedented. Beilein built winners at Michigan with guys who projected as 2nd rounders. Matt Painter and Purdue are dominating the Big Ten right now with this strategy. Zach Edey took 3 years to get to where he is, but now he's the #1 player on Kenpom, and dominates the game to such a degree they can play two true freshmen and a defensive lunchpail guy in the backcourt. Those guys can still lean on juniors Mason Gillis and Brandon Newman. Meanwhile you've got PF Caleb Furst in his second year of starting and preparing to replace Edey eventually. Last year they could lean on Jaden Ivey, who was an off-the-bench not-just-a-shooter as a true freshman. Before him they could lean on Trevion Williams. And through it all they have guys who are of limited interest to the NBA who are nonetheless much more valuable to college, like Sasha Stefanovic.
Howard appears to be learning this lesson, but I think he (and everyone but those listening to Matt D from Endless Motor) got big 5-star eyes without asking how valuable is a 5-star to the program, really? Next year, especially if they get Jett Howard (#43 in the composite) back, I think you'll really appreciate the high-4*s they recruited this year. Tarris Reed (#35) is only just now starting to make an impact, and will be able to make a bigger one after an offseason shooting free throws. Dug McDaniel (#87) is probably going to have an era, with huge assist rates in his future, but right now the game is still slowing down for him and he doesn't have a finishing move at the rim. I think Youssef Khayat (not ranked) will become an excellent defender on the Wing. These guys can't give you an instant impact, but I think they'll all leave greater legacies at Michigan than Michigan's #1 and #3 recruits of the composite era.
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 133631
rc90
January 23rd, 2023 at 9:52 AM ^
This is well said. Do you have a substack I could subscribe to?
One little thing I would add is that Diabate was a particularly poor fit on offense last year, and that Houstan was disappointing. You want guys to space the floor for HD, and then hit open three after three, when HD sends the ball back out from double teams. Houstan did that some, but not nearly as much as we all hoped, and open threes are well down the path for Diabate's development.
Joined: 02/15/2016
MGoPoints: 4442
ak47
January 23rd, 2023 at 10:29 AM ^
The narrative on last years team is really weird. The team finished 27th in kenpom and was in a competitive game in the sweet 16. There were unrealistic expectations going into the year but the final product was a solid but not great team that had an up and down season because they were young. Its not anywhere close to this years team. And even this years team is probably fine if Llewellyn doesn't get injured and had a similar improvement arc of settling in as other transfer point guards have had.
On the recruiting front its a question of what your goals are. Is it to be good but not great every year with a hope for things coming together once like Purdue or to shoot for a chance at being great for multiple years in a ten year span. Maybe this is the year Purdue makes an actual run but more likely is Edey picks up a couple early fouls when they get away from big ten refs that let teams play football on the court and they lose to a team with more athletic guards. Pretty much all of the teams winning a national championship are doing it with 5 stars on their team. Last years national championship was Kansas vs Duke. Baylor is probably the team that had the lowest ranking of guys out of high school but they built that team with transfers, not high school recruiting.
Also ironically Edey was Purdue's backup plan after not getting Dickinson, who is still in college and just not as good.
Joined: 05/05/2011
MGoPoints: 31573
Seth
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:12 AM ^
The sweet spot I think is over where Painter recruits, though. I want Tarris Reed-caliber players who are going to be useful as freshmen and potentially blow up as sophomores, and then back fill every class with Isaiah Livers types.
Purdue's the best team in the Big Ten but Houston is a good example too.
Marcus Sasser makes that team go, and what is he: A 3-star, 4-year guy who began starting the back half of his true freshman year. Emanuel Sharp was in the high 100s in the 2021 class. Jamal Shead was actually the PG in Sasser's class. J'Wan Roberts was in that class too. Tramon Mark was ranked in the 80s in Hunter Dickinson's class. So that's four starters who've been playing together at Houston for 3 or 4 years.
To that they got a 5-star in Jarace Walker out of IMG who's projected to go in the lottery (around where Jett is) but they also have him playing center, which probably isn't his NBA role, but increases his value in college. Imagine Diabate if he had to play the five, but arrived with another 2 years of development and could shoot 35% from three. THAT's a 5-star worth pursuing like one, and probably a good shot at getting one because you want your one-and-done year to be special.
I just don't think Michigan has what Kansas and UNC and Duke and Kentucky offer: A chance to focus on basketball in your draft year. NIL can get us close, but they have an entire lifestyle at those colleges that Michigan wouldn't even entertain creating. Also that market is shrinking now because minor leagues are offering a new path to the NBA without having to pretend you're a student at all, with more or at least comparable money.
When teams that aren't the factories go for 5-stars they often end up with guys they don't get a lot of value out of. I'm fine with going for big whales, but it should be in specific situations, like finishing the touches on a title run, or if there's a particular reason the player is going to favor Michigan. Getting guys who need 2 years to make an impact who stick around for one is probably worse than just going the portal route.
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 133631
ak47
January 23rd, 2023 at 11:46 AM ^
I think Howard thought he could recruit like the Duke and UNC's of the world. Obviously it hasn't panned out that way, especially at the PG position. You are right about what the ideal is which is also where Jay Wright lived at Villanova. His teams were 90% guys ranked 50-150 in their second to fourth years but he pretty much always had a couple of five star guys on the roster too. I think its a place Howard can recruit at as well, and honestly where he has recruited at. The bigger problem is the rotating door at PG.
This year has had a lot of things go wrong that I think people are just reading too much into. Llewellyn got injured rather than settling in and getting better. Bufkin has gotten better but whether its because of his finger injury or whatever he just isn't shooting that well and Terrance Williams has been a major dissapointment and showing why he didn't play over Houstan more last year.
But the reason I harp on the narrative from last year is rather than people looking at this year as an unfortunate bad year its gets connected with last year to try to sell a pattern of a problem. Last year was not a bad year. The team had a ceiling of being great if everything clicked but the narrative sold that ceiling as the expectation and vastly undersold what the average expectation looks like. So people view last year negatively when in reality it was the equivalent of a median year in the Beilein era.
Always appreciate your willingness to engage though. I know comment sections on articles can be toxic places.
Joined: 05/05/2011
MGoPoints: 31573
Seth
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:40 PM ^
They got just one good win out of the nonconference last year--San Diego State, at home. They lost to Seton Hall at home, got trounced by Zona, UNC, Illinois, Rutgers, and UCF. They even lost to Nebraska.
Then as Houstan's defense improved to "credible" they went win, loss, win, loss, win, loss through the Big Ten season. The big moments were getting Edey knocked out with fouls early, Diabate shutting down Keegan Murray at Iowa, and Jones going off at Ohio State. It wasn't until that last that Michigan actually got off the bubble, remember.
If Llewellin isn't injured I think this year is a lot like last year, overall: between 47th and 30th. That's well under the reasonable expectations for teams with Hunter Dickinson.
Joined: 10/14/2008
MGoPoints: 133631
ak47
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:58 PM ^
Yes, they were better at the end of the year than they were at the beginning. At the end of the year they were a solid but not great team.
I think you are overrating Dickinson and his impact. Basketball, and especially college basketball is a guard/wing driven sport. You always want your best player to be a guy who can create offense for himself with the ball in his hands. To do that as a center you need to be Jokic level good. Dickinson is an extremely mediocre athlete. He doesn't generate his own offense from outside the paint and he can't power through doubles, which is why he takes so many hook shots and jumpers. His athletic limitations are also a big reason the team struggles on defense. He is an absolute liability on switches on the perimeter pretty much forcing drop coverage which opens up shooters and he doesn't have the lateral agility or lift to be a rim protector that can make up for defensive lapses from the perimeter players. Dickinson is a very good college basketball player, especially on offense but this team is better if you have Reed as the starting five but an all big ten level point guard. I think this is a big part of why we have lost so many close games the last two years, generating late shot clock offense in end of game situations is on guards and our guards haven't been good enough.
Joined: 05/05/2011
MGoPoints: 31573
bronxblue
January 23rd, 2023 at 12:25 PM ^
The argument that you need 5* players to win a title focuses too much on the star rating and less on the type of player you have at any given time. A 5* freshman isn't the same as a 5* junior, and so a top-50 kid who's a junior is probably going to be superior to your average 5* 18-year-old playing his first sustained college season.
UNC's roster last year was full of highly-regarded kids but they were older; their starting lineup was 2 sophomores, 2 seniors, and a jun