The day after Michigan crushed Ohio State in Columbus last fall, Luke Fickell was announced as the Badgers' new head coach, and two Badger commits, 6'3"/290 DT Roderick "Trey" Pierce III and 6'2"/320 NT Jamel Howard, reopened their recruitments. On Wednesday night Michigan completed the first half of an attempted double-flip of Wisconsin's DT class.

Pierce, the higher-ranked one, has been rising over the cycle. When he committed to Wisconsin last May he was close the 1,000s, and had slipped into them by fall. Senior tape started to change opinions dramatically. He crossed the 4-star line at Rivals earlier this month and might be heading that way on a couple of the other sites.

That senior tape, and the explanation for why it changed so many opinions, came with a major new body and new position; Pierce was a 245-pound defensive end this time last year. He's now listed at 290 to the two sites that update that the most frequently, and 285 to Rivals.

GURU RATINGS

NOTE: I made a change this week in how I calculate our composite star rating. I've decided ESPN ratings since 2014 should only have a half share, since they're more subject to regional bias, and have not putting in the same level of effort as the other sites. This only affects players for whom ESPN significantly disagreed with the other sites available at the time.

Last row is my conversion to a five-star scale. Links are to profiles.

As mentioned, Pierce has been moving up the composite; he was in the 1000s and the 110th-ranked DL on the 247 Composite as of October, the 81st DL and in the 700s six weeks ago. Rivals recently moved him up to 4-star, from a 5.6, #44 DT, #15 IL (3.63 on my scale) to what you see above. 247 wouldn't go quite that far, but had further to go, bumping him from an 85 to an 89 in early November. Late risers (e.g. Mason Graham) are usually a good sign, because the industry doesn't trust itself to move guys up too far, and doesn't the smoke from moving guys near the 4-star line under it. Slotting a guy in just under 4 stars when his senior film just started rolling in is saying they're seeing something awesome, but this is all new so give us a second  to process.

[AFTER THE JUMP: Light the menorah!]

SCOUTING

Rivals moved him up the furthest so they can go first. Lead analyst likened Pierce's game to the way his Wisconsin recruitment went down:

no-nonsense, all-business and focused. The three-star prospect deals with double teams all the time and still sheds blockers to get to the ball carrier, he’s physical and fast.

Michigan reporter Jared Halus sounded like he was talking about Mason Graham about this time last year:

Pierce has a high motor and good athleticism for his size, and uses his quickness and agility to get a step on his blockers and wreak some havoc in the backfield.

An opposing coach called Pierce "a monster inside and w a kid we could not block." Clint Cosgrove said the "impressive senior film" was their deciding factor in re-ranking.

The guy getting them that film (and that quote) was "Edgy" Tim O'Halloran, who obsessively covers Chicago's high school leagues and has been going for years about Pierce as a "game-changer", "playmaker" and "a major inside force." Edgy Tim has been saying the same things since at least the camps they held in lieu of football in fall 2020:

Roderick Pierce III didn't play at the varsity level in 2019 but hasn't looked like it all fall long in various camps. Pierce III has also played both inside and outside this fall but was able to get multiple strong reps inside at this event. Pierce III has really good size and speed, is well advance technique wise and he just has a great motor and physical tools.

Maize & Blue Review's Lucas Reimink did a scouting report when Michigan surged a month ago, noting Quickness/Agility, Hand Use, and Motor as Pierce's strengths, and Pass-Rush Arsenal, Physical Strength, and Gap Discipline as his weaknesses. The motor stood out.

He has really good quickness, solid agility, and has solid physical strength. Plays with a high motor as he continues to chase down ball carriers down the field. Also plays with a bit of an edge to him, which is always a plus for a DL player. Is quite tough as well. I don’t love player comparisons normally, but he really reminds me of a bigger Maurice Hurst in terms of play style. He has the same quickness and agility as him and he’s even a little taller.

Reimink thought Pierce relies too much on his swim move, and his bull rush wasn't very effective. He also called him "more of a gap-shooter" whose game relies on his first step to get him in the backfield, since he will get moved after:

His physical strength is marginal though, and when double-teamed it shows up. He will get pushed off the ball more often than his size and weight suggests he should, and it’s mostly due to marginal physical strength but pad level is also an area he can improve upon that will make the marginal physical strength less of an issue.

Before the senior breakout, BadgerBlitz (Rivals)'s Jon McNamara didn't agree with the pad level thing, calling Pierce an "agile lineman who plays with natural leverage and good balance." But he liked the get-off:

Early in film, we see Pierce use his burst at the snap and active hands to shed blockers (3:05) and get into the backfield. There's a few clips where he simply overpowers the player in front of him (2:55), but there are others where Pierce fights through a double team and is rewarded for continuing to track the play (:05).

At 247, Allen Trieu came in for a re-evaluation after the new round of offers, and saw the same motor/first step combination, but also a kid who'd gotten near his ceiling.

Well built, put-together prospect who does not carry any unnecessary weight. Shows quickness off the snap. Plays with great motor. Shows solid agility for a big man but can still keep working in that area. Frame may not support lots more weight but there is still some room for growth. Can take on blocks and stop the run. Well coached and plays with good technique and pad level. Very college ready in terms of his build and approach. Very high floor type of prospect who looks like a safe bet to be a Power Five starter. Can play either nose or three-tech.

Trieu's NFL comp was Rakeem Nunez-Roches.

Nunez-Roches is a high-motor guy who like Pierce, does not have much bad weight for an interior defensive lineman. His play style and effort allows him to play nose despite not being a traditionally big run stuffer.

That's one of those comps where Trieu might be saying more than he let on, because RNR is very specific kind of back-roster lineman. Here's Nunez-Roches's NFL Draft evaluation from 2015, which has more or less held up since:

Fireplug with a good motor and an ability to find gaps and drive upfield through them. He's missing the size and brute strength necessary to consistently handle himself in phone booth battle so he will have to play in a one-gap, upfield defense. He has the look of a penetrating nose who will have to start his career as a backup.

Other 247 evaluators offered their opinions during the re-rank, with Chris Singletary describing an "Active big man with the requisite agility, well coached, and should be a good run defender," and Cooper Petagna focusing on the "explosive first step", calling Pierce "nimble for his size, and athletic.

Both 247's and On3's recruiting reporters spoke to Brother Rice HC Casey Qudenfeld, who does not think Pierce is actually close to what he can be (via EJ Holland):

“Untapped potential. He’s only 6-foot-2 3/4, but he has a 6-foot-8 wingspan. He’s 293 pounds right now. He has has more than a 30-inch vertical. He’s strong as an ox. He’s fast. He’s quick twitch. He can play the run. He gets a quality amount of quarterback pressures. He’s really starting to understand the game and understand blocking schemes and the differences in those schemes. His ceiling is really high. He doesn’t even realize it.”

Qudenfeld also gushed about Pierce as the face of his program, publicly and in the gym (via Allen Trieu):

"He's really grown as a player. Last year, he started coming on towards the end of the year on film from the Marist game to the beginning of the playoffs, then he really wreaked havoc this year. He came in and changed everything. Culturally, he was ‘how do I watch film properly?’ He concentrated on technique and run fits. He would always go to camps and learn pass rush stuff, so he had done a lot of that but as far as being a run defender, he was absolutely amazing. He single handedly changed our defense for the better and kept us in games we wouldn’t have been in without him.

He altered games. Against Joliet Catholic, he was not only great in that game against a four-star Northwestern commit on the offensive line but he also blocked a field goal to get us into overtime and eventually win that game.

EJ Holland figures this means Michigan will use him as a three-tech despite his more nose-like height because Pierce comps to the literal best-case scenario for a freshman DT….

he has a great wingspan and plays with leverage. Pierce brings plenty of brute strength to the table, and that power pops on film. Pierce is also athletic and has great feet for his size. He carries 290 pounds really well and should easily play over 300 at Michigan. … Michigan wanted to get longer along the defensive line this cycle hence why the Wolverines took an early commitment from Brooks Bahr. While Pierce doesn’t exactly fit the bill, he was too good and productive to pass up. Pierce really blossomed as a senior against quality competition around Chicago. Remember, some questioned Mason Graham’s height and length coming out of high school. While I don’t think Pierce will be as dominant as Graham has been right away, he is in a similar mold. … He’s extremely disruptive in the interior of the defensive line, can get after the quarterback from the five and has a great frame/athleticism to work with. He’s one of the better lands this cycle.

Giddyup! Holland's take wasn't unique among recruiting reporters. Wisconsin's 247 reporter Evan Flood was adamant the whole time he was committed that they had a 4-star prospect.

You talk to people who have seen Pierce play, this will likely be one of the better additions in Wisconsin's 2023 class. … has a low center of gravity, combined with his long arms allow him to stand his man right up, shed the block, and get into the backfield.

However Flood wasn't seeing the first step back in May, but thought that was more of a timing issue:

Doesn't have a great get-off. Needs to time his snaps better. However, he's got really terrific recovery speed and can chase plays down the line. Love his ability to defend gap run schemes, get right off the guard's butt, and think he'll be a nice upgrade for UW up front against some of the spread offenses that give them trouble. … Not as big, but Pierce has a little Keeanu Benton in him the way he can shoot a gap or just manhandle the player in front of him.

Flood also said Pierce was the best player in the class, projecting him to nose but with the ability to play end and stay on the field when they went 2-4-5. To people in Madison, this wasn't a mere open-handed down-slap on Krabbenhoft; it was a full-on Sharif Chambliss-taking-down-Terrance Williams II clocking, with the imminent threat of a second:

Even if it was expected, Pierce’s decision was a significant blow for the Badgers, who also lost fellow Illinois defensive lineman Jamel Howard just a few days ago. The two - Howard, a true nose guard, and Pierce, a versatile option along the line - seem to complement each other very well. Now, the duo could wind up in the Big Ten with the Wolverines, which would amplify the Sting Factor for the Badgers.

Pierce said the teams he spoke to were looking at his motor and mostly focused on 3-tech, though that position always comes with the versatility to move around gaps. Michigan's coaches said he fits anywhere from Morris's position to nose. Wisconsin saw him "as a 4i [to] zero-technique. They told me they see me all over their d-line and I can fit in their system pretty well." Qudenfeld certainly used him that way:

“To me and to a lot of coaches that have come around, they see the versatility and what he can do. A lot of teams are going to shorter noses around his height. He’s 293 pounds and doesn’t have a waist whatsoever. He can put on weight if he needs to. He can bump all the way out to a 4i. It just depends on the defensive front. We started him as a 3 and moved him to a 2i as a changeup. He was able to do both. When we went to an odd front in certain situations like against Wilmette (Ill.) Loyola Academy, he was at a 0 and had a sack. He also had a pressure that turned into a turnover. I think he can do it all. It’s just about teaching him the right technique.”

OFFERS

Illinois fought for Pierce the whole way, and seems to have been Michigan's biggest competition at the end. Texas, Auburn, and Michigan State jumped in right after Michigan. When he committed to the Badgers the other schools in the mix were Kentucky (his first offer), Minnesota, Syracuse, Vandy, Kansas, and Duke. Ohio State showed interest last winter.

HIGH SCHOOL

Chicago's Brother Rice is a boys-only Catholic school in Southwest Chicago, but like our Brother Rice it has a girls-only high school next door. They're in the Blue Division of the CCL, along with Marist (Jimmy Rolder), Loyola Academy, and Mt. Carmel. All of these Southwest Catholics, particularly Mt. Carmel, were historical Michigan pipelines from Yost until about the 1970s. Richard Yanz and Gerald Mader, two starters on the almost-National Champions 1964 line, were Brother Rice alumni. John C. Reilly was as well.

Rice finished 0-3 in the Blue and 7-5 overall this year, but were state runners-up in 2018. In addition to Pierce, Rice has produced just one other 4-star in the Rivals era, Illinois WR Ricky Smalling. Michigan recruited former commit Denver Warren out of there, and Illinois has drawn a bunch of 3-stars in that range. Christian Pierce, Trey's younger brother, is a 2025 linebacker prospect already generating national (read: Texas) interest. Michigan is already pursuing.

The commitment of Trey also makes Michigan the odds-on favorite for NT Jamel Howard, who will announce his destination on Signing Day. They went to different high schools but Pierce and Howard were friends since middle school, committed to Wisconsin within days of each other, decommitted together, and have been in the same breath this whole way.

STATS

Local papers credit him with 3.5 sacks, 19 TFLs, and 58 tackles this year, playing at DT. He had 88 tackles and 16 TFLs in 11 games in 2021 proper, and another 5.5 sacks and 36 tackles in 6 games at DE during the abbreviated COVID season.

FAKE 40 TIME

Is DL no 40 time.

VIDEO

1v1 at OSU's camp last July:

ETC

3.6 GPA. Holland says Harbaugh himself help Michigan close. We're calling him Trey because that's what was on his Michigan name tag.

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

I love that he's flying up the rankings after his senior film got out. I love that there's a very good reason—he was a lot smaller and playing end last year—that he wasn't as high on boards until this year. I love defensive tackles who are already "unblockable" at the high school level, who can project to nose or 3-tech without having to build them up and hope they're still explosive. And I love-love-love to hear the Mo Hurst and Mason Graham buzzwords. Also Wisconsin knows what they're doing at DT recruiting, and Illinois's excellent defensive staff were coming after Pierce with desperation. Between the 3-star ranked in the 400s who's been shooting up the rankings and the 4-star who's been slowly falling back to the 250-300 range, the 3-star is usually the better prospect.

I have a feeling he'll over the 4-star line when they do the final rankings, thus preventing me from making him the class sleeper, though the 2023 class is going to have plenty of other candidates. Pierce does seem to possess all the hallmarks of a DT who will work out: He's already of a size for college, and credited for all the right things. I don't think he's Mason Graham 2.0. Graham was obliterating one of the toughest high school leagues in America while playing full time on the offensive line as well. What's the lite version of God's Gift to Football? God's Chanukah Gift to Football.

With Smith almost certainly going to the NFL, George Rooks leaving the program, and a buried Cam Goode probably not sticking around, the door's open for one of Michigan's 2023 DTs to get some playing time next year behind Graham, Jenkins, Benny, and Grant. Pierce is immediately the favorite, given Brooks Bahr is more of a grow-a-3-tech and Pierce is reportedly advanced for his grade. That's just a deep backup role, but one that puts him in competition for major playing time once any of the guys ahead of him leaves.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

Michigan has two DTs in the class and has a pretty good idea who the third might be. Unfortunately they'll have to wait until Signing Day to hear whether Pierce's childhood friend and fellow Badger decommit Jamel Howard picks the same team again. If Michigan can get Howard, it would seem they've pulled off another good, underrated, but not elite DT class after another cycle of observers wondering whether they forgot the position exists.

THE CLASS AS IT STANDS