It's been a while since we did a Hockey Weekly. In fact, this is the first one of the 2022-23 season. The rush of football season has blocked out my ability to do much hockey content beyond weekly HockeyCasts, but now that things are less crazy on the football front, expect weekly columns moving forward. This one isn't going to talk too much about the MSU series but will share my takes on the first half in general, in addition to a recap of the first half for those who haven't been watching hockey too closely this fall: 

A Quick Recap 

Let's catch everybody up. Michigan looked wobbly in their opening series against a new D1 team, the Lindenwood Lions, but got a pair of W's to get things going. Then they brought a good Boston U team to Yost and won the first game in a bizarre penalty-filled contest that saw Michigan score three times on an extended 5v3 in the first period. They dropped the second game tight, and then went up to Sault Ste. Marie to play a godawful Lake State team, picking up two easy W's. Returning to the Lower Peninsula, Michigan played a home-and-home with WMU, winning 5-4 at home after blowing several leads, and then blowing a third period lead in Kalamazoo before rebounding to win in OT. Michigan Hockey's record at the end of October was 7-1 (1-0 in OT). 

Moving into B1G play in November, Michigan went to Hockey Valley to take on Penn State without starting goalie Erik Portillo. The team lacked a pulse in the first game, being shut out in a contest where they hardly made a peep on offense. They rebounded to win on Saturday, but not before blowing a 3-0 lead in regulation. Their bacon was saved by Adam Fantilli's OT winner. Next up was Notre Dame, with Michigan skunking the Irish on Friday, but lost the Saturday game in OT despite leading 2-0 in the second period. Michigan then went back to Yost to play host to Minnesota in what was supposed to be the marquee home series of the season, but it was marred by an RSV outbreak in the Wolverine locker room, decimating the roster and leaving only a comically-poor lineup of skaters to play both nights. Michigan predictably dropped both to a loaded Minnesota team, though they played better in game #2. The goaltending was not good enough that weekend. 

Michigan played a good Harvard team at home over Thanksgiving, with Brandon Naurato choosing to start Noah West over Erik Portillo in a surprising decision that did not pay off. West let in several soft goals, though Michigan battled back to get a tie. The Maize & Blue then pummeled Harvard the next night for one of their best games of the season. The Wolverines closed out the first half with three of the last four games on the road, getting a disappointing split with a bad Wisconsin team in Madison, before splitting the home-and-home this past weekend with a much improved MSU team. In total, Michigan ends the first half 12-7-1 (2-1 in OT), but with much more of their success coming in non-conference than against B1G opposition. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Analysis]

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Checking in on the B1G 

A crucial piece to the story of the first half of Michigan's season is the fact that the B1G is a much better conference than I (or anyone) expected. Though Notre Dame is coming in a bit below expectations and Wisconsin is belly-flopping, those have been more than offset by the sudden, rapid improvement of both Penn State and Michigan State. The Nittany Lions have gone from the periphery of the bubble last year to an upper echelon team in the nation (and conference), while Michigan State has gone from an utter joke to a team that has a very solid shot of making the NCAA Tournament. The PSU improvement is less surprising to me- they're scoring a half-goal per game more than last season, but nothing massive on that front. Rather the main change is getting far better goaltending. If you'd told me in September that Liam Souliere would be a .919 goalie, I'd have responded "PSU is probably going to be really good". Indeed that's the case. 

As for Michigan State, this is close to a best-case-scenario. Adam Nightingale came in, switched out half the roster via the portal, and installed new systems and it is having the intended effect. Michigan State's skaters are playing competitive hockey and they are being driven to a higher level thanks to veteran transfer G Dylan St. Cyr. He proved how valuable he is to MSU by stealing the show on Friday night in a win over Michigan, and his .925 through the first half is hard to argue with. The Spartan offense is mostly an ensemble effort and has wilted against better competition (three total goals in two games each vs. Minn. and Michigan), but has been very solid against lesser opponents. That + St. Cyr has allowed Michigan State to bank wins in both the non-con and the B1G and build up a very solid resume. When I start paying attention to PairWise on Jan. 1, MSU will begin inside the tourney picture. Nightingale is the easy leader for Coach of the Year right now for me. 

Minnesota has been basically what I've expected, extremely talented offense, good defense, decent goaltending, and racking up wins. They are one of the top teams in the country and the odds-on favorite to win the B1G right now. Jimmy Snuggerud has surpassed my expectations to lead the team with 12 goals and 27 points, while Logan Cooley has been about in-line with my guess and Matthew Knies is an excellent hockey player again. All three have double digit goals and are easy bets for All-B1G honors. Toss in the veteran, NHL Draft-laden defensive group and the only question I have is Justen Close in net. 

[Bill Rapai]

Ohio State is a team that looks pretty close to my expectations, middle of the B1G and suffering from mean reversion in net. Jakub Dobeš has been closer to his USHL performance than his sterling freshman year (.934), but make no mistake, he's still a fine player. At 5-5 in the conference, the Buckeyes are about where I had them preseason but because the B1G is so good (more on that later), being .500 in the conference has you in position to make the tournament once we get into calendar 2023. This could easily be a five bid league. 

The two underachievers, ND and Wisconsin, are of differing variety. Wisconsin is a calamity. I expected them to be in the bubble conversation because they seemed ripe for positive mean-reversion and had tons of talent, but it turns out they are just cursed and also that Tony Granato is a terrible NCAA head coach. Them going from horrid in 2021-22 to ... still horrid in 2022-23 doesn't change the B1G's baseline. The Irish are a small disappointment, from my projected #3 team in the conference and solid tourney squad to bottom-end B1G team who is bubble-out right now. At 8-8-2, ND was the least impressive B1G team in the non-conference and in conference play have generally won close games while losing games by 3, 3, 4, 3, 3, and 3 goals. Not ideal! They can't score (2.5 GPG) and while they've gotten pretty good goaltending (.925), the dam has broken far more often than usual. ND has allowed 4+ goals in 10 of 19 games this season counting the exhibition(!!!), something I can't remember saying about a Jeff Jackson ND team in a long time. 

The B1G dominated its opposition in the non-conference, which went a long way towards turning this into the possible five bid conference I mentioned earlier. Michigan was 7-1-1 in the non-con, Minnesota was 5-3, PSU 8-0, MSU 6-2, OSU 3-2-1, Notre Dame 4-3-1, and even Wisconsin is 6-2 against non-conference foes(!). A number of these teams, Michigan and Minnesota in particular, played grueling non-conference slates and banked key comparison wins against top conferences, which helps raise the tide for the entire conference. This is the best the B1G has ever been in my time covering it, and their performance in the non-conference portion of the schedule makes it so that conference losses aren't as bad in PairWise. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

Erik Portillo 

As we start looking at the team, we have to begin with Erik Portillo. It's been a bumpy ride this year for Portillo, who has come in well below expectations to this point. After sitting in the .940 SV% range over the second half of last season, he's at just .909 through the first half of this season. He was generally strong in the month of October but has started to encounter problems as B1G play got going. The team defense was poor in several games, I will say that, but it hasn't been terrible the last month for the most part and too many goals are going in. 

If you go back to that Minnesota series. Michigan was decimated by illness and thus needed a strong goalie performance in order to pull a game out against the Gophers. They did not get that from Portillo, who let in several soft goals. In the Friday game, I thought the balance of play (especially at 5v5) was in Michigan's favor, but they lost by multiple goals. Naurato then chose to bench Portillo in the next week's game against Harvard, which did not go well, and Noah West's poor performance is why Michigan got a tie instead of a win. You could argue that Portillo's performance in G2 against Minnesota thus cost Michigan two wins, since it triggered that benching to send a message. 

It was a similar story in the Friday game this past weekend against MSU. Michigan had issues in the third period generating looks while trailing, but on the whole of the game, they had the better looks. I'm not sure MSU had more than 1 or 2 quality chances all game, whereas Michigan had at least a half-dozen. Portillo straight-up whiffed on one wrist shot and let in a bizarre goal while laying motionless on his stomach for far too long. Michigan lost 2-1. 

[Bill Rapai]

Injuries are a storyline for sure, but Portillo's struggles are the single biggest reason this team is a bit below my expectations right now. I thought they'd be getting .925 goaltending from the big Swede and they are not. For this team to go on a run in the B1G Tournament or the NCAAs, they're going to need a sharper Portillo. Right now his confidence and puck tracking ability looks about as poor as I've ever seen it. He played a better game on Saturday, allowing only a lone goal (coming in the final seconds with a multi-goal lead), yet still looked unsure of himself.

Portillo is not picking the puck up on plays very well, having issues with deflections and shots through screens, and his glove is a mess. I could've counted at least 5-10 shots this weekend that were weak, coming in on Portillo's glove side, that he didn't catch and squeeze. Rebound control has always been an issue for him, but lately the puck is flying off his body, and he's giving up rebounds on shots there should be no rebound on. To make matters worse, he doesn't seem to have a great sense of where those rebounds are going. 

All in all, I don't think the break could be coming at a better time for #1. He needs to take some time off and not think about hockey. Reset mentally and then get back to square zero. Luckily for Michigan, Portillo was much better last year in the second half than the first half, so there is reason for hope that he can be stronger in January-March. This team needs it. West had a nice series against PSU but he is not the level of player that can lead this team to a Frozen Four. Portillo is, because he did it last year. Goalies are weird and inconsistent, so hopefully he gets it back on track. 

[Marc-Gregor Campredon]

A dazzling freshman class 

The freshman class has been one of the big stories of the season to me so far, as they are supplying most of the oomph offensively, and a surprising amount of the oomph defensively too. Starting on offense, Adam Fantilli has been as expected. 11-15-26 in 16 games, the no doubt #2 pick in the upcoming 2023 NHL Entry Draft and it will be incredibly fun to watch him in the WJC over Christmas. One of the best players in the B1G and a true collegiate 1C. Related: it sucks to not have him in 4/10 B1G games so far due to illness and the Team Canada WJC camp. 

Rutger McGroarty has started to come on strong in the last month or so, now up to a 8-11-19 in 20 games line on the season. That's in line with my expectations and he's showing off his assets as a prospect, the ability to win board battles and a wicked wrist shot. Then there's TJ Hughes, who I had trouble projecting in the preseason, just because we knew so little about him. I posited that he could be a regular, or could be scratched consistently. What I didn't expect was a 9-10-19 stat line in 18 games to begin his freshman season(!). Hughes, despite being undrafted, has a touch of skill to his game, and he feasts around the net, tip-ins and the like. With 3 PPGs, he's been a fixture for Michigan's man-advantage down low and is a major recruiting win for the staff, a player they took a late flier on after he blew up in his age 20 season in the AJHL. Also nice: no penalty minutes for him! Hughes looks like he will be an excellent multi-year player at Michigan. 

Gavin Brindley has been quiet so far, just a 1-9-10 line, but there's a lot to like about his game. The skill and skating is there and you just get the sense he's getting his feet wet in college hockey. He's not going to keep shooting 1.9% forever, that's for sure. I expect goals to come in bunches in the second half and him to improve pretty dramatically, not unlike the leap Samoskevich made in the second half last year. Jackson Hallum (3-4-7) has been decent, and is another guy I'd be looking to see improve, but Seamus Casey has been a revelation. We'll get to Luke Hughes in a minute, but with #43 a bit disappointing, Casey has really stolen some of the spotlight. The skating and hands are pretty to watch in action and he's been a lot better defensively than I'd expected. For much of this first half, Casey has been Michigan's best defenseman. 

Finally a quick shoutout to Johnny Druskinis and Luca Fantilli. I did not anticipate either to see much time this year but Luca has been a regular in the lineup and seems fine, while Druskinis got inserted more recently and I've been enamored by his play. For my money, Druskinis has been maybe Michigan's best defensive defenseman, while Fantilli has held his own and has some puck-moving upside. I'm curious to see how these players progress as the year goes along but at the very least, both seem to be nice finds who will have good four year careers in the Maize & Blue. This is a great freshman class, and we haven't gotten to see Frank Nazar at all. That's pretty fun. 

[Bill Rapai]

Needing more from the returners

While the freshman class playing great is a good sign for the future of the program, performances from the returning players have been disappointing. The good comes from two players, Mackie Samoskevich and Dylan Duke. Samo has been as good as advertised, 12 goals in 20 games and more than a point-per-game, in line with that All-B1G level player I projected. He's been much better with Fantilli in the lineup and cooled off a bit in recent weeks, but no major complaints with him. Similar story for Duke, who has 10 goals in 20 games, doing a lot of work on the PP. The way he stepped up in the Minnesota series, single-handedly making Michigan competitive with such a limited roster, was impressive. 

But beyond these two guys, I've been somewhat disappointed. Luke Hughes has started to heat up in late November into December but has not been the Hobey frontrunner we expected. His defensive play has been poor (no surprise there), but what has surprised me some is the lack of transitional offense. We haven't seen the same amount of electrifying rushes from last season, though he has looked more comfortable activating in transition the last two weeks. Jacob Truscott has been fine, but was a component of the team defense issues which is a broader point for me. With so many defensemen returning, I did not expect to see some of the breakdowns we saw early on. Michigan has had a major problem turning non-threatening rushes into certain goals at times this year, and that's frustrating when so many defensemen return from last season. They need a smoother second half from these two + Ethan Edwards and Keaton Pehrson. Freshmen playing on D is nice, but it is somewhat related to disappointing play from returners. Better should be expected moving forward. 

[Bill Rapai]

Brandon Naurato 

How do I feel about Naurato's first half-season as Michigan head coach? Fine, I think. Their record is a little worse than I'd have hoped for but again, have to take into account some contextual factors (which I will assess in the next section). Considering those I'm probably fine. Recruiting has been very good, but consider me unmoved by that aspect of the job. I would expect three dogs in a trench coat acting as a coach to recruit exceptionally well for Michigan Hockey. This is a blue blood program that is the premier school in a talent-rich state with exclusive access to whatever talent from Ontario (and the GTA specifically) wants to come play NCAA Hockey. And that's in addition to the USNTDP being in the backyard. Michigan is a national brand with more prominent and active NHL alumni than any other program (next to the London Knights in terms of the most prolific talent-producing junior program worldwide). Recruiting is not difficult here. So yes, it's awesome that they've nabbed Nick Moldenhauer, Michael Hage, Mikey Burchill, and Aidan Park. I love all those prospects. But I see landing those commits more as a prerequisite of the job than something exceptional. 

As for taking the interim tag off, I've seen a lot of people clamoring for that but I'm not ready to go there yet. I want to see Naurato coach a full season and make a decision at that point. I think he's on track for me to feel comfortable with that decision ultimately, but let's see how the campaign plays out. If Michigan a) improves in the second half and b) makes the NCAAs, then I think I'm fine making Naurato the full-time head coach. But those things need to happen first. This is a young team and thus I expect them to get better, and to clean up some of the sloppy issues (the cadre of too many men penalties they've taken recently). If Naurato meets those expectations, then I'm comfortable moving forward. 

[Patrick Barron]

General Feelingsball 

In totality, I feel fine about Michigan Hockey's first half. Relative to my expectations, it's an underperformance, but several things beyond this team's control have happened that I was not aware of at the time. When I wrote the season preview, I was not aware that Frank Nazar, who I expected to be the second line center and possibly one of their two or three best forwards, would miss the whole first half. I was also not aware that they'd be without Portillo for a series, and Fantilli for another series, and ~40% of the team for a series against MINNESOTA of all teams. They've faced a lot of adversity early on and that was something I couldn't see coming. 

I also didn't see the B1G being this good. The reality of this season is that last year, Michigan could face adversity (remember losing key players to the Olympics?) and still come out alright because PSU was not great and MSU was a crime against hockey. This year? Both teams are in the NCAA Tourney picture. Part of the reason Michigan's season has gotten bumpier since B1G play got going is because the B1G is the best conference in college hockey this year. It's not like last year, where we'd go into a lot of weekends saying "if Michigan doesn't get two wins, it's a disappointment". It's a much deeper and more difficult conference, with every series being tough week-in and week-out. Even Wisconsin, the comically bad and ineptly-coached cellar dwellar, has multiple first round picks on their roster. It's a lot harder to lose chunks of your roster or key players and still be okay this year. Something I didn't foresee. 

So with all that in mind, being 12-7-1 at the break is alright. They're in the tournament picture right now, and if they improve in the second half, as I expect them to, they will be in the NCAAs. That is the biggest goal for the season. Moving from last year's more veteran team to this year's young and inexperienced team has taken an adjustment. It's reminiscent of that 2020-21 team that came in with so much hype but was eminently frustrating for stretches of the year. They were 5-5 at the Christmas break, shouldering adversity (losing the stars to the WJC camps vs. Minnesota), but then went 9-4-1 down the stretch to solidly make the NCAAs, though COVID wiped out their chance to compete. That year is a mold for this season. I expect to see players like Brindley and Hallum improve, and for Portillo to find his footing. Maybe they get Nazar back at some point too. When you talk about 45% of the lineup being freshmen on any given night, that's a big deal. But you know what they say? Just like in football, by the end of your freshman season you're not really a freshman anymore. That's the upside for this team. Improve, get hot in March, and who knows what happens.