GREETINGS FRIENDS! For the second year in a row, there is cause to reconvene the Council of Stupid Analogies. There is more football to be played. Real, meaningful football. Also we couldn’t not talk about Michigan State losing to Indiana. So, one last time this year, let us watch the opponents.

About Last Week

17 million people.

The Game made H I S T O R Y this year with 17 million viewers 🔥@UMichFootball x @OhioStateFB | @FOXSportsPR pic.twitter.com/KDxV487u6s

— FOX College Football (@CFBONFOX) November 28, 2022

That is so many people. SO MANY PEOPLE saw that, you guys. That’s like 5% of the population of the United States. Two decades worth of home crowds at the Horseshoe. The entire nation of the Netherlands.

That’s what you wanted, right? After last year’s drubbing in Ann Arbor, you insisted that everyone come and watch this. Michigan sucker-punched you on the road in a generational blizzard when you were practically bedridden of mega-flu. And then, to compound matters, Michigan refused to treat it like the fluke that everyone knew it was. The “born on third base” comment. Desmond Howard mocking the Ohio State line at the Heisman ceremony. Twelve months of acting like they actually belong.

No one was allowed to leave the Thanksgiving table until Michigan agreed to arm wrestle Uncle Brutus again, but FOR REAL this time. No snow. No wind. No flu. No raucous home crowd. And with Ohio State paying proper attention. This time, by god, they would cross out all the M’s.

Watch this. [Barron]

Then what happened.

And do you know the worst part? At least last year, after you got trounced by your most hated enemy, you could wander off somewhere and feel your big feelings quietly by yourselves. You had two losses. No one ⁠— other than Michigan and its fans ⁠— paid you any further attention. But now, because you only have one loss, you’re just on the periphery of the College Football Playoff. You get to be a part of every conversation about the rankings, and you get to hear announcers and commentators and pontificators ending every sentence about your team with, “…but HOLY PULISIC’S BRUISED BALLS DID YOU SEE WHAT HAPPENED AGAINST MICHIGAN?” You have to hang around. You’re the CFP’s side piece, waiting for the Committee to come back to you if things don’t work out with TCU or USC. You’re a four seed booty call.

And my guess is that you’re not 100% sure you want that phone to ring.

The Road Ahead

Purdue (8-4, 6-3 B1G)

Last week: Won at Indiana, 30-16

Season Recap: In the Big Ten West, Purdue was the last team standing. Okay, “standing” might be a bit much. It was like one of those “whoever can keep their hand on this car the longest wins the car” contests. Or a Depression Era dance marathon, where the partners take turns sleeping on each others’ shoulders so they can stay upright long enough to win, like, seven turnips.

Purdue lost to 7-5 Syracuse, beat 5-7 FAU by two points, and beat Maryland, Nebraska, and Northwestern by a single score each, but a 31-24 win over Illinois in which the refs cheated* and a 20-10 win over an Ibrahim-less Minnesota were enough to seal the deal.

[*Source wishes to remain unnamed, and would like another Pabst please]

When last time we saw them: I checked several sources, and I learned something fascinating: Purdue is a member of the Big Ten Conference. Has been since 1896. Which feels weird, because Michigan has only played them once in the last decade, a 28-10 win in West Lafayette in 2017 that ushered in the John O’Korn era. Overall, Michigan has won 9 of the last 11 matchups, with the two losses coming in 2008 and 2009 during The Troubles.

This team is as frightening as: The fifth best team in the worse half of the third toughest conference in America. Fear Level = 6

Michigan should worry about: Charlie Jones led the Big Ten in catches, yards, and receiving touchdowns. He also escaped the Iowa receiver room like El Chapo escaping from a Mexican prison. He cannot be killed. He is immune to prosecution.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Last year, Aiden O’Connell threw for 8.2 yards per attempt in conference play with a 21-6 TD/INT ratio. This year he’s at 6.6 YPA with 15 TDs and 10 INTs.

When they play Michigan: More trophies plz.

This week: vs. Michigan, 8:00 p.m., FOX (Purdue +16)

[AFTER THE JUMP: those guys again… BUT NOT RIGHT AWAY]

--------------------------------------------

Georgia (12-0, 8-0 SEC)

Last week: Beat Georgia Tech, 37-14

Season Recap: Georgia is very good at football. The only question is whether they are Standard Issue Elite or Food Truck That Only Serves Murder (coming to Bravo this fall, 9:00 p.m. on Tuesdays).

There is evidence on both sides. On the one hand, they only beat Missouri by 4 and Kentucky by 10, although the latter was a 16-0 game with 10 minutes left. Their defense, while fantastic and the #1 defense in SP+, is not as statistically dominant as last year’s crew, and the offense is only ranked #26 in SP+ (five spots behind Michigan). Their schedule also hasn’t been that much better than Michigan’s, as they avoided both Alabama and LSU out of the West.

On the other, more murdery hand, Georgia has beaten four currently ranked teams by a combined score of 169-42. They flattened Oregon 49-3 and suffocated then-#1 Tennessee in a game that wasn’t as close as the 27-13 score would indicate. And, like Michigan, scores in many of their games do not reflect the Big Brother Sitting On A Little Brother nature of those games.

This team is as frightening as:

Maybe he’s friendly?

Fear Level = 10

Last time they played Michigan: Without looking it up, I don’t think Michigan and Georgia have ever faced each other in football before.

Michigan should worry about: Other than the obvious “everything, you fool,” I specifically worry about Georgia’s offensive style and whether Michigan’s linebackers can stay clean enough in the running game or handle Georgia’s tight ends in the passing game. Georgia’s tight ends are inhuman. Superhuman. Possibly several humans stacked on top of each other under a trenchcoat. 

That’s a 6’7, 270-pound tight end, y’all. Lord help us. pic.twitter.com/Mn8R3NLJ4E

— Justin Wells (@justinwells2424) September 3, 2022

this is their #2 tight end.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: I KNOW I SAID THIS LAST YEAR, but I mean it this time: Michigan will almost certainly not face Georgia unless both teams reach the Championship Game, at which point, screw it, go win the whole damn thing.

This week: vs. LSU, 4:00 p.m., CBS (UGA -17.5)
 

TCU (12-0, 9-0 Big 12)

Last week: Beat Iowa State, 62-14

Season Recap: TCU has big Auburn energy this year.

WAIT, wait. I should clarify. Big 2013 Auburn energy. Miracle at Jordan-Hare, Kick Six, Mario dodging all of the fireballs energy.

Not 2022 Auburn energy. That is VERY DIFFERENT energy.

TCU is 12-0 in defiance of all math, science, and logic. They won 7 consecutive games by 10 points or fewer. They trailed Kansas State 28-10. They trailed Oklahoma State 30-16 in the fourth quarter and needed two overtimes. They were tied with Kansas with 2 minutes left. They needed an insane fire drill field goal to beat Baylor. But they lived. And now, barring a blowout loss to Kansas State, they are almost guaranteed a spot in the playoff. It’s a deserved spot, too; the Big 12 was surprisingly good top-to-bottom this year, and TCU’s strength of schedule is better than any of the other contenders.

This team is as frightening as: The rather average-looking guy you get assigned to fight on the first night of Fight Club. You have no beef with that guy. Never even met him before. Seems like a good enough dude. But Brad Pitt says “fight,” so they are now your mortal enemy.  Fear Level = 8.5

When last time we saw them: Michigan has never played TCU. Michigan has, however played three purple teams in recent years: Northwestern, Washington, and Kansas State (you probably recall Michigan defeating both Northwestern and Washington last season). Michigan is a combined 67-21 all-time against those 3 teams for a combined win percentage of 76.1%.

This, of course, raises the obvious question: against what jersey color has Michigan had the most historical success? Based on some quick math, there appear to be three candidates: purple, black, and brown, all hovering around the 76% to 77% mark among teams Michigan has played at least four-ish times. Iowa, Purdue, Vanderbilt and Rutgers have done most of the heavy lifting for black, while Minnesota and Western Michigan have been responsible for most of Team Brown’s lack of success against the Maize & Blue. Grey has been the most successful against Michigan, although NOT RECENTLY FOR SOME REASON.

If anyone wants to take on that research task in the off-season, extra credit will be awarded.

Michigan should worry about: Marvin Harrison Jr. is probably ⁠— probably ⁠— better, but I don’t think Michigan would have faced a more complete receiver than Quentin Johnston. Also, horned frogs spray blood from their eyes. Both problems are concerning.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: TCU’s run defense is mediocre, both in counting stats and fancystats. Michigan’s run offense is not mediocre.

This week: vs. Kansas State, noon, ABC (TCU -2.5)
 

USC (11-1, 8-1 Pac-12)

Last week: Beat Notre Dame, 38-27

Season Recap: I cannot confirm the very well-sourced rumors that Kevin Warren held a secret meeting in Los Angeles on Sunday morning with Lincoln Riley, USC Athletic Director Mike Bohn, Snoop, and Traveler and offered them 25% of Rutgers’ cut of the next media contract if they agreed to join the Bog Ten early and take Purdue’s spot in the Big Ten Championship Game on Saturday. I repeat, I CANNOT confirm that. I can confirm, however, that several flights left O’Hare for LAX on Sunday morning, and several more returned from LAX to O’Hare on Monday. Could be a coincidence. I suppose.

USC pulled off the coup of the offseason last year, grabbing Lincoln Riley (and Lincoln Riley’s outstanding quarterback Caleb Williams) out of Oklahoma by sending him a 55-gallon drum full of cash and a picture of the beach. They also grabbed Biletnikoff winner Jordan Addison from Pitt and 2nd team All-Pac-12 running back Travis Dye from Oregon and about 17 other dudes from around the country. And it turns out, “have a bunch of dudes and play in a conference without any really elite teams” (aka The Clemson) is still a recipe for success. They lost a coin flip game to Utah, but won one against Oregon State and won losable games against Arizona, Cal, and UCLA.

This team is as frightening as: A pre-Yaklich John Beilein team. You can score… but you’re gonna have to score. Fear Level = 8

When last time we saw them: Michigan has played USC 10 times, 8 of which were in the Rose Bowl. USC has won 6 of the 7 matchups since 1970, with Michigan’s lone win coming in 1989. The most recent game was a 32-18 loss to the Trojans in the wake of the original Football Armageddon.

Michigan should worry about: Caleb Williams has thrown for 9.1 yards per attempt and 34 touchdowns against only 3 interceptions. He’s basically a foregone conclusion to win the Heisman. And if anything, he’s been getting better; in the back half of the season, he’s averaged 9.7 yards per attempt, and is averaging 4.5 total touchdowns per game. He’s basically CJ Stroud if CJ Stroud was allowed to cross the line of scrimmage without bursting into flames.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: USC’s defense is probably the only legitimately bad unit on any of the potential playoff teams. They’re surrendering 6.2 yards per play on the season, which is #114 in the country. They’re in the 90’s in both yards per carry allowed and yards per pass attempt allowed. They’re #61 in the country in defensive SP+. USC has given up at least 6.4 yards per play in 5 of their last 6 games (for comparison purposes, Michigan gave up 6.4 yards per play against Ohio State last weekend).

They have only survived at all because of a ludicrous +22 turnover margin; they’ve gained 26 turnovers and lost only 4.

This week: vs. Utah, 8:00 p.m. Friday, FOX (USC -3)
 

Alabama (10-2, 6-2 SEC)

Last week: Beat Auburn, 49-27

Season Recap: I am of two minds about Alabama. They clearly do not belong in the playoff. Their loss to Tennessee was understandable. Their loss to LSU was understandable-adjacent. But they would have lost to Texas if Quinn Ewers hadn’t gotten hurt. They would have lost to a BAD Texas A&M team if Jimbo Fisher wasn’t so Jimbo Fisher. And they probably should have lost to Ole Miss. They’re a two-loss team who is lucky to be a two-loss team. If resume matters, Alabama can’t be in over Ohio State.

Yet, at the same time, they are roughly equal to Ohio State from an analytical standpoint as somewhere between the second and fourth best team in the country, and unlike *some teams*, they did not lose at home to their biggest rival by 22 POINTS. Hell, Alabama hasn’t lost a regular season game by that much since 2003 in MIKE SHULA’s first year as head coach.

This team is as frightening as: The tiger on the other side of the glass at the zoo. You can talk all sorts of shit about the tiger on the other side of the glass at the zoo. Because this glass is rated as tiger-proof. Or at least “tiger resistant.” I assume. Fear Level = 9

When last time we saw them: Michigan lost to Alabama 35-16 in a more-competitive-than-the-score-appeared Citrus Bowl at the end of the 2019 season. Prior to that, they lost 41-14 in a way-way-less-competitive-than-the-score-appeared season opener in 2012 at JerryWorld. Michigan is 2-3 all-time against the Tide.

Michigan should worry about: “Mediocre Alabama” is akin to saying, “moderate food poisoning.”

Michigan can sleep soundly about: Alabama getting in seems almost impossible given that they are currently behind Ohio State and neither team plays this weekend, but if they somehow got in over Ohio State, I would never ever ever stop laughing.
 

THE Ohio State University (11-1, 8-1 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Michigan, 45-23. Again. At home. In front of God and everybody.

[Barron]

Season Recap: Won 11 games. And then SUPER didn’t win that 12th game.

Ohio State is out of the playoff if TCU and USC win. But if one or both of those teams lose this weekend, would the Committee put them in? They have quality (although not dominant) wins over Notre Dame and Penn State, but they also played Michigan. And they lost that game by a LOT of points. Just a metric shit-ton of points. The only Big Ten team to allow that many points to Michigan was RUTGERS. Hell, Colorado State only allowed 44 offensive points to Michigan, and they lost to Sacramento State.

Illinois played Michigan closer. Maryland played Michigan closer. IOWA played Michigan closer.

So, I dunno, man. That’s a rough look. But at least if they don’t make the Playoff, they have an absolute basement of the Rose Bowl.

/places finger to earpiece

oh.

This team is as frightening as:

Fear Level = 10

When last time we saw them: Michigan won, 45-23, a year after Michigan won 42-27.

Michigan can sleep soundly about: So, if they get in, they’re probably the #4 seed, so they’ll probably get matched up with Georgia. And if that happens, and if Michigan were to face Ohio State again, it would probably be in the title game. And you would probably rather have Michigan face Ohio State ⁠— a team they just beat by 22 points on the road ⁠— than Georgia.

Michigan should worry about: …but good lord could you imagine the anxiety leading up to that game.

This week: No game. Because they didn’t make the Big Ten Championship Game. Again. Because they lost to Michigan. Again.

Objects in the Rearview Mirror Lightning Round

Colorado State (3-9, 3-5 MWC)

Last week: Lost at Air Force, 24-12; Beat New Mexico, 17-0

Recap: One of the many, many nice things about beating Ohio State…
 

Hawaii (3-10, 2-6 MWC)

Last week: Beat UNLV, 31-25; Lost at San Jose State, 27-14

Recap: …is that we don’t have to hear about Michigan’s weak non-conference schedule…
 

UConn (6-6)

Last week: Lost at Army, 34-17

Recap: …ever again.

Farewell. You were a good boy.

Maryland (7-5, 4-5 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Ohio State, 43-30; Beat Rutgers, 37-0

Recap: I owe Maryland a BIT of an apology. Not a full-on “I’m sorry.” But at least a Walter White/Jesse Pinkman head-nod acknowledgement. I see you, Terps. You did okay.

I had Maryland dead and buried… or scuttled, I suppose… after they got slaughtered by Wisconsin to drop to 6-3. That decision was seemingly affirmed when Penn State beat them 30-0. But while they still lost to Ohio State, but they played the Buckeyes closer than anyone else this year (up until that point, at least), and then housed Rutgers to finish 7-5.

The immediate future for Maryland probably rests on Taulia Tagovialoa’s pending decision to either declare for the draft or return to school for a 12th and (presumably) final season.
 

Iowa (7-5, 5-4 B1G)

Last week: Beat Minnesota, 13-10; Lost to Nebraska, 24-17

Recap: All you had to do to salvage this abomination of a season was to do what Michigan and Illinois and Oklahoma and Minnesota and Wisconsin and Purdue and Georgia Southern and NORTHWESTERN had done before them: beat Nebraska. Nebraska. Interim coached, nerve-damage-hand-quarterbacked, couldn’t-hold-the-Care-Bears-under-4-yards-per-carry-between-the-tackles, nothing-left-to-play-for Nebraska. And then you went out and fell behind 24-0. Nebraska hadn’t led ANYBODY 24-0 since 2019.

I look forward to Kirk Ferentz’s thoughts on the subject.
 

Indiana (4-8, 2-7 B1G)

Last week: Won at Michigan State, 39-31 (OT); Lost at Purdue, 30-16

The states in red should probably consider firing their coaches

Recap: Extremely enjoyable MSU hijinks aside, Indiana needs to have a serious conversation about Tom Allen.
 

Penn State (10-2, 7-2 B1G)

Last week: Won at Rutgers, 55-10; Beat Michigan State, 35-16

Recap: A remarkably consistent season for James Franklin. Other than the Northwestern hurricane game, Penn State gained between 5.25 and 7.1 yards per play in every Big Ten game, and between 5.6 and 6.0 YPP in 6 of 9 games. They held 11 of 12 opponents under 4 yards per carry. And at the end of the day, you can’t complain about 10 wins and a likely New Years Six bowl.

Still… 418 rushing yards?
 

Michigan State (5-7, 3-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Indiana, 39-31 (OT); Lost at Penn State, 35-16

Recap: 99.7% of my happiness with the result of The Game was rooted in Michigan and/or Ohio State. But at some point on Sunday night, it dawned on me: this means I get to write about the Michigan State. Indiana game. It wasn’t the cherry on top of the sundae, but it may have been the whisper of almond extract you should be adding to your whipped cream when you’re using it for something rich.

Thanks to an unexpected win over Illinois and a rather expected win over Rutgers, Michigan State just needed to beat 3-7 Indiana at home as a 12-point favorite to reach bowl eligibility. And everything went fine. Michigan State outgained Indiana 540-288, mostly because they ran 90 offensive plays to Indiana’s 51. They gained 29 first downs to Indiana’s 11. They held the Hoosiers to 2-7 passing for 31 yards. Total. And they had a 31-14 lead midway through the 3rd quarter against a team that was averaging fewer than 19 points per game in conference play. Everything was going to plan. Unless…

Wait… Is that JOHN L. SMITH’S MUSIC???

Indiana mounted a 17-point comeback that contained ZERO COMPLETED PASSES. Then Michigan State missed a 22-yard game-winning field goal because billionth year senior Elijah Collins failed to center the ball and $95 Million head coach Mel Tucker can’t find a kicker out of Michigan State’s 50,023 undergraduates who could hack it at D3, let alone in the Big Ten:

Then also had a field goal blocked in overtime. Then they lost by 19 points to Penn State, during which they did this:

That’s 4th and 2. MSU is down by 5 points in the 4th quarter. And MSU’s brain geniuses are lining up 2.5 over 4. Penn State didn’t even block it well, and they still scored a touchdown. Because math. And as a result, I regret to inform you that the QUICK LANE BOWL QUEST has officially capsized attempting to ford the Detroit River. You have lost one ox, eight helmets, and 10 pounds of coney dogs. Also your entire secondary has dysentery.

MSU is now 12-13 in Big Ten play under Mel Tucker, and has been outscored by 207 points in the process. And he has nine more years guaranteed on his contract.
 

Rutgers (4-8, 1-8 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Penn State, 55-10; Lost at Maryland, 37-0

Recap: Most of my (very limited) optimism about Rutgers was that they may have finally found a difference-maker at quarterback. And then Gavin Wimsatt completed less than 45% of his passes for 5.2 yards per attempt and failed to crack a passer rating of 90 against anyone who wasn’t Michigan State. And now they lose Adam Korsak.
 

Nebraska (4-8, 3-6 B1G)

Last week: Lost to Wisconsin, 15-14; Won at Iowa, 24-17

Recap: Matt Rhule seems like a pretty good guy to rebuild Nebraska. He got Temple and Baylor to double digit win seasons in Year 3. The caveat, however, is that Year 1 was *rough* in both spots. Temple went 2-10 in Rhule’s first year, and Baylor dropped from 7-6 to 1-11 (albeit on the heels of about the worst transition imaginable). This is one place, however, where you can give Scott Frost and Trev Albert credit: they left absolutely no doubt that Nebraska didn’t need to add some shiplap or update the kitchen or knock down a couple of walls to really open things up. No, they needed to tear the thing down to the studs, then tear down the studs, then attach the entire foundation to a bunch of balloons like in the movie Up and float it away, then fill in the hole, then re-dig the hole so the hole for the foundation didn’t have any residual Scott Frost.

Illinois (8-4, 5-4 B1G)

Last week: Lost at Michigan, 19-17; Won at Northwestern, 41-3

Recap: Shhhhhhh. Come here.

Were you followed? Are you sure? Okay, good. We must discuss. They’re onto us. No, I don’t know how. But they have discovered The Plot.

Congrats to both teams and all they have accomplished. Saw both teams on the field and didn’t get it done. Would love the opportunity to meet both again on a neutral field and officials. Can’t happen this year but #famILLy we will be there sooner than later #ILL https://t.co/yJoC4H7NOh

— Bret Bielema (@BretBielema) November 27, 2022

How did they discover our plan to keep 5-4 Illinois out of the Big Ten Championship Game? How did they know that we bribed the refs to make Illinois turn the ball over four times against Indiana and go 1 of 6 on 4th down against Michigan State and get outgained by Purdue. Our ruse was perfect. There must be a mole on the inside.

Proceed, but proceed with caution. Trust no one.

 

Ohio State (11-1, 8-1 B1G)

Last week: Won at Maryland, 43-30; Lost to Michigan 45-23. Again. At home. In front of God and everybody.

Everyone saw, guys. Everyone. [Barron]

Recap: 45-23.

Forty-Five.

To Twenty-Three.