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Hoops Recruiting Is Back

Hoops Recruiting Is Back
Matt EM March 28th, 2022 at 11:56 AM
Decisions Looming Large [MLive]

With the Wolverines' season now in the books after a strong finish and a fifth consecutive Sweet 16 appearance, we now flip the page to recruiting.

As potential return/early entry decisions haven't been confirmed exclusive of DeVante Jones, the coaching staff doesn't know how many scholarships, and for what position group(s), are available. 

Taking that into account, let's jump right into it with my most recent intel that will largely focus on the 2023 class. 

**NOTE - In an effort to adjust expectations, I'm going to start emphasizing wholistic evaluations that focus more on projected impact as opposed to exclusive emphasis on a quantitative ranking. The overall talent level in HS hoops has declined significantly over the last five years and there has to be an adjustment that compensates for it and this is my attempt at doing so. The oversimplified example is that a prospect in the 15-40 range for the 2023 class probably doesn't project to be as good, or have as much impact, as a 2018 prospect in the same range, particularly as a freshman.**

NEW OFFER

Head coach Juwan Howard extended a scholarship to 2023 Fort Lauderdale Calvary Christian guard Marvel Allen on Tuesday. 

Height/Weight: 6'4/195 (listed measurements), most likely a legit 6'2 - 6'3 and 185-190

Position: Combo-Guard

Mainstream Ranking: top-20 prospect overall to both the 247 + On3 composite rankings. 

EM Ranking/Evaluation: Projected impact more closely resembles that of a 35-70 range prospect. More scorer than shooter that excels as a volume on-ball type that creates his own offense. College ready frame + solid positional size coupled with good athleticism allow him to finish through contact and absorb defenders attempting to bump him off his spots when penetrating to the rim. Above-average jumpshooter capable of hitting pull-ups from midrange, and from distance at times. Doesn't play off-ball much, so hard to measure his effectiveness as a floor-spacing shooter. Not a great playmaker for others at this stage of development. Probably a high-floor player at the college level due to size + frame/scoring ability.

Recruitment: There are some connections here, as Allen attends the same HS as 2022 signee Greg Glenn. On the other hand, Marvel was committed to LSU prior to Will Wade's termination. Those two factors in tandem make this a unique recruitment from a Michigan perspective, although one that is intriguing. There will be no shortage of suitors for Allen throughout the Summer. 

YES, PLEASE

I was in Dallas over the weekend to take in my first travel ball event of the year at the Circuit League I. The prospect that absolutely blew me away was 2023  Zayden High of JL3 EYBL/Smithson Valley HS (TX). The appropriate folks were notified and contact has been made.

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'7-6'9/185-225. He's a legit 6'8-6'9 and 210 pounds at minimum.

Position: Power-Forward/Center

Mainstream Ranking: 3-star to every site (no ESPN profile)

EM Ranking/Evaluation: Projected impact resembles that of a top-50 prospect without question despite the mainstream ranking. And I'm only being that conservative on the basis that I need to see him more on the EYBL circuit. Potent perimeter shotmaker off the catch or the bounce. Outstanding vision as a playmaker for others that can facilitate offense. Appears to be a solid rim protector, with the caveat being that the competition, although formidable (Adidas Mass-Rivals), was a bit undersized. Zayden looks to be my Kyle Filipowski for the 2023 cycle. The kid that mainstreams don't love heading into the Spring/Summer, but will likely end up as a high 4-star/low 5-star prospect by August. High looks to be the perfect college prospect that may not have NBA-caliber positional size/agility/twitchiness (distinct from Filipowski that is a legit 6'11 - 7'). Assuming Michigan has a scholarship available for a big in 2023, Zayden should be an absolute priority. 

Recruitment: Michigan is just now establishing contact, so impossible to measure how serious things may get, particularly since I predict Zayden is going to blow-up following the first live evaluation period in April. This is headed toward a national level recruitment in a hurry.

[Hit THE JUMP for a few more new names on the board]

UNDER THE RADAR, BUT ONE TO FOLLOW
 

Michigan has shown some preliminary interest in 2023 guard R.J. Jones of Drive Nation EYBL/John Paul II HS (TX), but no offer has been extended.

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'2-6'3/175-180 and that sounds right based on my eye test over the weekend.

Position: PG/SG

Mainstream Ranking: 4-star/40-75 overall

EM Ranking/Evaluation: Agree with the mainstream rankings, but would probably have him a bit higher at 35-60. From the body type to the shotmaking ability + shooting mechanics (genu valgum in the knees), Jones definitely reminded me a bit of former MSU standout Cassius Winston. Jones is an excellent shooter as a traditional floor-spacer and hitting pull-up jumpers off the dribble. While he didn't play on-ball much, I was impressed with RJ as a playmaker for others in his limited stints playing PG for Drive Nation. He definitely has some shiftiness off the bounce and changes directions easily with a live dribble. He's doesn't have a ton of acceleration, but he does have solid verticality in run + jump scenarios. Projects as a good multi-year college player that can excel as an on-ball playmaker or a catch + shoot floor-spacer that is compatible with any lineup combination. 

Recruitment: Resides in Texas, but grew up in Florida until recently and Dad is originally from Benton Harbor. High academic student with 3.5+ GPA. Texas A&M and Cal are the two schools pursuing him the hardest right now. I'd expect a lot of new suitors over the Summer. This one seems to check all the boxes from a Michigan perspective both on the court and culturally. Would like to see this recruitment gets serious if the scholarship situation permits. 

2024 THAT MAY BE WORTH MONITORING DOWN THE ROAD

2024 SG Kur Teng of Adidas Mass Rivals + Bradford Christian Academy (MA) was the best pure shooter I saw in Dallas. The staff has been keeping loose tabs on him, but no contact has been made to my knowledge. 

Height/Weight: Listed at 6'4/165-185. Realistically 6'2-6'3 + 185-195.

Position: SG

Mainstream Ranking: 4-star/top-50 overall to both 247 and Rivals

EM Ranking/Evaluation: Projected impact more closely resembles that of a 75-150 range prospect assuming he's done growing. Outstanding shooter off movement via screens + relocations. Able to hit pull-ups when attacking closeouts. Can run half-court sets through him because of his ability to hit jumpers on the move. Limited ballhandler that doesn't change direction/speed with a live dribble. Limited athlete that doesn't possess ideal agility/speed/verticality. Not a playmaker for others at this stage of development. Quintessential "Just A Shooter" that doesn't project to be a great defender at this point. 

Recruitment: Michigan isn't serious here just yet and I can see why. Offer list/interest closer to that of a MM+ caliber prospect and I agree with that at this point. If he gets to a legit 6'5-6'6 and/or develops some shot-creation ability that changes the equation.

NCBlue22

March 28th, 2022 at 12:13 PM ^

Thanks Matt!  Any idea why the talent level in HS hoops is 'down significantly in the past 5 years'?  Seems like this statement implies more systemic changes than just a few random down years in talent.  

In reply to Thanks Matt!  Any idea why… by NCBlue22

nowicki2005

March 28th, 2022 at 12:26 PM ^

Why do you think the talent is down?

You may jot have the generational talent every year, but overall high school kids get more skilled every year. You've got PFs and Ca legit spacing the floor, running like gazelles, and able to handle the ball.

Players scoring packages right out of high school are unreal.

In reply to Why do you think the talent… by nowicki2005

JMo

March 28th, 2022 at 1:06 PM ^

The commenter isn't saying it, Matt is saying it.

**NOTE - In an effort to adjust expectations, I'm going to start emphasizing wholistic evaluations that focus more on projected impact as opposed to exclusive emphasis on a quantitative ranking. The overall talent level in HS hoops has declined significantly over the last five years and there has to be an adjustment that compensates for it and this is my attempt at doing so. The oversimplified example is that a prospect in the 15-40 range for the 2023 class probably doesn't project to be as good, or have as much impact, as a 2018 prospect in the same range, particularly as a freshman.**

In reply to The commenter isn't saying… by JMo

RAH

March 28th, 2022 at 7:42 PM ^

Another reminder that it is a good idea to at least skim through the article before commenting on it. Avoids all sorts of embarrassing incidents.

In reply to Thanks Matt!  Any idea why… by NCBlue22

GoBlue96

March 28th, 2022 at 1:33 PM ^

Kids unsuccessfully attempting to play like Steph Curry.

WestQuad

March 28th, 2022 at 12:14 PM ^

Why is HS basketball talent down?

In reply to Why is HS basketball talent… by WestQuad

East German Judge

March 28th, 2022 at 1:37 PM ^

All those great athletes are now play soccer, of course.  /s

In reply to Why is HS basketball talent… by WestQuad

Scout96

March 28th, 2022 at 1:38 PM ^

There was this thing called Covid which impacted almost 2 years of development.

In reply to There was this thing called… by Scout96

TrueBlue2003

March 28th, 2022 at 4:01 PM ^

He said 5 years.  Covid impact would have only been noticeable...in the last year or so.

If true, there must be something else far more systemic going on.

In reply to Why is HS basketball talent… by WestQuad

Brian Griese

March 28th, 2022 at 2:22 PM ^

  • Covid
  • Basketball participation (from stats I found from 2019) has been going down slightly at the high school level
  • More and more emphasis on performance academies / prep schools waters down participation at your average high school
  • Young population has shifted away from areas where basketball is held in high regard - go look at Michigan's 1989 Roster and see where most of the players came from as opposed to a Beilein / Juwan team
  • Too many kids just want to jack 3's without developing the rest of their game first (Steph Curry effect / NBA 2K Video game series effect).  A few years back, I was appalled to watch an 8th grade game that featured a 5 out offense where 3's were regularly jacked by all members of the team. Unsurprisingly, the team 3 point percentage for the game was about 12%.  

All my opinion.  

In reply to Why is HS basketball talent… by WestQuad

Fan from TTDS

March 28th, 2022 at 3:43 PM ^

The talent in ohio is down over the last few years.  Everyone in ohio wants Holtman to have teams that win the big ten and big ten tourney like Thad Matta did.  The problem is the talent pool in ohio has gone down.  Matta had better players to choose from when he was coaching at OSU.

Wolverine 73

March 28th, 2022 at 12:35 PM ^

I read this and thought “why is HS talent down?  I should ask.”  Seems that is the same question everyone else had . . .

In reply to I read this and thought “why… by Wolverine 73

Blue Vet

March 28th, 2022 at 12:52 PM ^

Just logged on. I wonder why HS talent is down. ;-)

Matt EM

March 28th, 2022 at 12:38 PM ^

Tons of questions re: declining talent. I'll just answer here to avoid clutter.

I would probably have another job title if I had the answer as to why the talent is down. I'm simply not intelligent enough to know. Obviously, genetics play a part in it, but not sure that's a great explanation for 5 consecutive years of the talent being down.

First it was 2021 is the worst recruiting class ever, then it was 2022.........and now it's 2023.

What I do know is that if you go back to 2018, you have guys in the 20-30 range that turned out to be rotational players at the NBA level (Naz Reid, Darius Bazley, Coby White, Kevin Porter, Ayo)

For context, there are guys in the 2021 class within the top 20 that can't even get heavy minutes at the college level (Watson, Sallis, Collins)

In reply to Tons of questions re:… by Matt EM

mgoviking5

March 28th, 2022 at 12:42 PM ^

Interesting that the 2020 class isn't mentioned here. 

I would say guys in the 20-30 range turning into rotational players is a huge success, which I think is what you're saying. There are only so many spots. 

In reply to Tons of questions re:… by Matt EM

ShadowStorm33

March 28th, 2022 at 1:27 PM ^

Is the issue that overall talent is down (lower number of NBA level guys from that class year), or that ranking accuracy is down (similar number of NBA guys, but more coming from lower ranked players). I'm sure you used guys in the 20-30 range as an easy example, but it doesn't necessarily tell the whole story.

It's like using the number of players that made a Pro Bowl as a way to evaluate the talent in an NFL draft class. A draft with fewer 1st round Pro Bowlers isn't necessarily less talented if it has a higher than average number of Pro Bowl players from rounds 2-7.

In reply to Is the issue that overall… by ShadowStorm33

Matt EM

March 28th, 2022 at 1:41 PM ^

Now that I think about it, I think a plausible explanation/factor may be the recent trend of guys reclassing up  a year. When you have 19-20 year old freshman, the development curve has a certain cap.

In other words, borderline grown men are beating up on HS kids..........but can't really do it as effectively against legit college players. 

In reply to Now that I think about it, I… by Matt EM

Shop Smart Sho…

March 28th, 2022 at 1:43 PM ^



This post first appeared on Mgoblog, please read the originial post: here

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