THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Michigan not only got into the field proper—congratulations on making the tournament, Indiana—but got the best first-round draw imaginable given the circumstances: they're the higher-ranked team in Kenpom as the 11 in a 6-11 matchup, and the game is in Indianapolis against an altitude school. But because we can't go into the tournament at full strength:

#Michigan PG DeVante' Jones did not travel to Indianapolis because he is in the concussion protocol, according to a team spokesman. The hope is he will be available for the Round of 32 if U-M advances.

— Michael Cohen (@Michael_Cohen13) March 16, 2022

Please stop blowing up the heads of our transfer point guards.

About the opponent: Colorado State went 14-4 in league play and picked up good nonconference wins against Creighton (#53 in Kenpom), St Mary's (#17), and Mississippi State (#44). St Mary's was at home; the other two were on a neutral court. They swept Boise State in league play, but are 0-4 against common opponents with two losses to SDSU and two to UNLV.

CSU coach Niko Medved is likely the real deal. He took over Furman after Jeff Jackson (not that Jeff Jackson) had driven it into the ground and over the course of four years took the Paladins from 3-15 in the league and #342 to 14-4 and #106. At CSU he took them from #224 on arrival to 180, 99, 76, and now 34. Look for him at a power conference school in the near future.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Argh.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

Adam Thistlewood's status is unknown but prognosis doesn't seem great since he's not playing much and the rest of the CSU bench is pretty bad.

THE THEM

Colorado State's star is the fascinating David Roddy. Roddy is 6'6", 260; this combined with the fact that he plays at a mid-major conjures up an image of a limited back-to-the-basket guy who gets exposed by athleticism and size. The latter could be true—we'll address that in a second—but the former absolutely is not. Roddy shot an astounding 62/45 from the floor this year and when you drill down into Synergy numbers you get even more astounded. Roddy has to be the only player in the country in the 90th+ percentile for post ups (92), iso (91), as the pick and roll ballhandler (98), and on pull-up jumpers (97). He's 10th in the Kenpom Player of the Year rankings, and that's all the more impressive since there's a team component of that award that significantly dings players on teams languishing in the 30s.

Roddy's combination of skills makes him tough to defend: go under a screen and he'll pull up; go over it and he'll get downhill on you. Give him deep post position, which he can get by running the floor, and you're in trouble.

The question lingering over this game is: what about Moussa Diabate? Sam Vecenie picked out this matchup as one of his most anticipated in the first round of the tournament:

Roddy is one of the most polished bowling balls you’ll ever see on a basketball court, a thick, low-center-of-gravity undersized big whose skill level, footwork and ability to handle the ball at his size are all outstanding. There isn’t really anyone else in the country who carves out space quite like him, with physicality yet graceful polish. He steps out to shoot 3s but also attacks closeouts with ease. He was the Mountain West Player of the Year this season, averaging 19 points, eight rebounds and three assists while shooting 57 percent from the field and 45 percent from 3. He doesn’t look like any NBA player currently in the league, but he’s a genuine prospect because it’s hard to find guys who are this skilled.

Diabate is all twitchy energy and athleticism, in the best and worst ways. He has exceptional length and great lateral quickness, and he’s a disruptive force, utilizing his motor to make things happen all over the court. Roddy has faced guys like Arthur Kaluma at Creighton and regularly had to deal with San Diego State’s elite defensive big Nathan Mensah in some respect but hasn’t really faced a combo of this kind of twitch and length because there are very few guys quite like Diabate in college hoops. But the problem with Diabate could actually end up being lethal against Roddy. That twitchiness can lead to some befuddling moments where he’ll fall for pump fakes or get overaggressive and push out of position. Additionally, can he take advantage of Roddy potentially on offense? Can he just out high-point the ball?

Vecenie notes that 70% of the time Colorado State has another big playing next to Roddy and that they're unlikely to deviate from that much with the specter of Hunter Dickinson on the horizon.

So about that length. Here's Roddy against San Diego State in the Mountain West tournament:

Unfortunately that video doesn't reveal how Roddy got to the line, but it does have a lot of heavily contested jank going down as Roddy faces off with guys who look a lot like Moussa Diabate. Even with all those lol what shots going down Roddy only got to a 110 ORTG in this game thanks in part to four turnovers, and the first matchup was pretty similar: 3/6 from two, 1/3 from three, 8/10 from the line, five TOs. Maybe more important than Roddy's efficiency, SDSU was able to depress Roddy's usage (~20% over the two games when he's at 29 on the season). This looks like a trend since Roddy's ORTG dropped from 119 overall to 104 in Kenpom Tier A games.

Diabate can match anyone in the country defensively in short spurts…

30 seconds of Moussa Diabate defensive bliss

Denies the entry pass to TJD on 3 separate occasions

Rotates to cut off Stewart after he beats Houstan off the bounce then switches back on TJD

TJD was so frustrated by this effort he literally throws Moussa to the ground pic.twitter.com/8FnF3CyOoA

— LAbound (@LAbound2) March 11, 2022

…but as Vecenie notes he's prone to bad decisions and foul trouble. Shutting down Roddy in anything close to the way SDSU was able to do it is a win, but SDSU has the #2 defense in the country. Michigan… does not.

Colorado State's other major player is point guard Isaiah Stevens. Stevens is quick and deft with the ball, a pick and roll guard first and foremost with significant pull-up ability. That is most of his offense when he uses a screen. Passing to the roller is a thing that happens but isn't particularly efficient for CSU because their bigs lack size to catch and finish. Stevens also suffers a bit against top 100 teams because he ends up stuck in the midrange most of the time and can't do much at the rim.

Still, it adds up to a guy shooting 50/38/90 with a low TO rate and assist rate near 30. He is your number one candidate for the "why do midrange good now" player in this game. Having Collins check him most of the game might actually be better since he's quick enough to get in Stevens's grill and force really tough shots instead of sort of tough shots.

Wing John Tonje is another multifaceted offensive threat who is shooting 56/38/81 on the season. He's a black hole who gets to the line a lot; he runs PNR as well, but in his case you might as well call it "pick and whatever" because the roll man isn't getting the ball. He might send it out for a three, but he's running it to score himself.

Tonje is a plus spot-up shooter with pull-up game himself. Caleb Houstan is going to have to put his improved defensive prowess on display.

The rest of the team consists of low-usage workhorses who do one thing well. (Or no things well.) We're going to address the center position as a collective since Dischon Thomas and James Moors split non-Roddy time down the middle. Thomas starts and goes 6'8", 235. He does one thing well on offense, which is catch and shoot threes. He's shooting 42/39 on the season and he's shooting 21% on post-ups, with the rest of his twos background radiation stuff. He's a mediocre finisher at the rim after folks set him up.

Moors is a traditional paint big who checks in at 6'10", 260. A large majority of his usage is the usual garbageman stuff: cuts, PNR roll man, and putbacks. He has 14 post-up possessions on the year, so he is unlikely to test Dickinson's ability to stay on the court.

Defensively both guys are in the 50s, percentile-wise, on post-ups against a schedule that includes no Hunters Dickinson. It is unlikely either guy is going to check Dickinson adequately, which should mean doubling and open threes.

Kendle Moore starts next to Stevens in the backcourt. A combination of eye-popping shooting from two (63%) and low usage usually says something about something and that is the case here. His stat-sheet efficiency is all transition, which is a quarter of his FGAs. In the half-court he is strictly Just A Shooter hitting 31% from deep. He's at 36% from 3 on his career so he's probably a better option than his season number implies, but keep him out of transition and that's all he does.

Note that he's comfortable shooting from NBA range.

Moore does have a pretty good steal rate that doesn't get him in foul trouble but grades out badly as a defender on Synergy; we're always cautious about that but it probably means something when almost half of the spot-ups he gets charged with are undefended.

The CSU bench consists of roleplayers who have ugly ORTGs against non-cupcakes and one guy who's pretty good but may not be healthy:

• Stretch four Adam Thistlewood suffered some sort of injury in January and went from a guy who'd started almost every game of his lengthy CSU career to someone struggling to get off the bench. He hasn't played more than 13 minutes since and has 21 total in CSU's last five, with two DNPs. If he is available he's Just A Shooter hitting 37% from deep for his career. Note that CSU is now listing him at 6'8" instead of 6'6" for Reasons.
• Shooting guard Chandler Jacobs is a D-II grad transfer who gets 20 MPG and splits his shots about evenly between twos and threes despite hitting the former at a 53% clip and the latter at a 28% clip. He is mostly useful as a defensive pest and Walton-esque defensive rebounder. He commits a lot of fouls in an effort to pickpocket opponents.
• Jalen Lake is a freshman with scanty numbers; at this juncture it looks like he's Just A Shooter against top 100 teams; he's hitting 31% from 3 on the season. His minutes have been limited of late as CSU turns to Jacobs more. He has one bucket in the last six games.
• Isaiah Riviera is an efficient shooting (52/43 career on about 120 shots) wing with major TO problems for a guy who doesn't use a whole lot of possessions. His numbers are inflated by a couple of outbursts against teams in the high 200s on Kenpom and he has been invisible in top 100 games.

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers:

This team abandons the offensive boards to get back in transition. Only 10% of opponent shots come in transition and those are mostly steals suffered so CSU looks abysmally bad at defending that; they just do not give up middling transition opportunities. They're 354th in defensive pace; ie, shots take a long time to get up.

This team can shoot at all levels but they're best at twos, where they're 10th nationally at 56%. The converse is true: they're 211th defending twos. This is despite a lot of post doubling that sees them give up buckets of threes—they're 337th at preventing them.

THE KEYS

Send in the switchblade [Marc-Grégor Campredon]

Well I mean obviously that one. As mentioned above: David Roddy going up against Moussa Diabate is going to be massive. Diabate can probably front Roddy's post game into oblivion, and challenge shots a la San Diego State. If he's bamboozled by the wily Roddy, though, foul trouble beckons and then Michigan has to turn to Brandon Johns and Terrence Williams. Both are reasonable options but not exactly Moussa Diabate.

This matchup also extends to the other side of the court, where Diabate has alternately put opponents in a blender and faded out of games entirely. Roddy isn't going to be able to do much to contest Diabate's post hook, but he may be able to force it out of Diabate's comfort zone.

Frankie says relax. Frankie Collins has given Michigan good, important minutes in recent games. He was key defensively against MSU when Jones got in foul trouble, and also had four assists of the now-you-get-a-dunk variety. He had a couple of snaking layups against OSU and a steal. He is giving the impression of a guy who is putting it together. Now he's probably getting 30 minutes in an NCAA tournament game, and because he can't shoot a lick he's pretty much got to have the ball in his hands for big chunks of that time.

Take a breath, calm down, and panic. Not you, Frankie. You stay calm.

Oh God, here we go again. Michigan will get looks from three in a place that is not Crisler. One minor advantage is that they just played in this arena, and they shot it… okay. 30%? 30% seems like it'll do here, but if Collins is playing 30 MPG and CSU just ignores him… do we trust Frankie to drive into the lane and force help and then get it out to someone else? Maybe? Probably not? I don't know?

Dickinson smash. Or pass? I expect doubles but Dickinson has the ability to just shoot over these dudes with the short hook. Or put Thomas under the basket before the pass so that a double does nothing.

Guy number four three. We've noted that Michigan tended to win games where they got anything from a fourth player not named Brooks, Jones, or Dickinson. If Jones is out they need two other guys to step up. Diabate is an obvious candidate. Williams has been efficient of late. Brandon Johns… could have weird tourney mojo?

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.