THE ESSENTIALS

THE OVERVIEW

Tourney Quest 2022 continues with the return game against a suddenly reeling Illinois squad, 2-3 over its last three after starting the season 17-5. Brad Underwood was ejected from Illinois' game against OSU yesterday, and then did this:

this is art pic.twitter.com/AyEbVl7kiS

— Nicole Auerbach (@NicoleAuerbach) February 25, 2022

Got some angry dudes in this league.

Underwood lost his marbles as he's seeing the Big Ten title slip away for the second consecutive season. Both Purdue and Wisconsin are a game up in the standings with three left to play, and the toughest game left on both team's schedule is definitely going to be a win for one or the other since it's Purdue @ Wisconsin. Illinois has to win out to have a shot at a share and will be angry and desperate. So they're in the same emotional space as Michigan, more or less.

The first matchup here was immediately after Michigan's COVID pause and without Hunter Dickinson. Then Diabate got in foul trouble, leading to 13 minutes of Jaron Faulds that went better than Michigan had any right to expect. They hung tough and was down one at the seven minute mark, and then the doors fell off. Last year's all-hands-on-deck meeting was a 17 point Illinois win.

THE US

Seth's graphic [click to embiggen]:

faq for these graphics

Juwan Howard is still out.

THE LINEUP CARD

Seth's graphic [click for big]:

THE THEM

Updates from the first preview:

• Andre Curbelo returned from injury immediately after the Michigan game and immediately leapt into the Isaiah Washington Memorial Disaster Factory Of The Year lead. Curbelo is shooting 41/23 in Big Ten play on 30% usage with the same elevated TO/assist rates he had as a freshman. That adds up to a cool 86 ORTG and plenty of online conspiracies about Curbelo being a double agent.

  Illinois w/o Andre Curbelo: 13-1

  Illinois w/ Andre Curbelo: 6-7

  -31.7 pts per 100 possessions per @EvanMiya's on/off splits -- almost double the next lowest on the team (Williams).

  — Cooper Watson (@coopertwatson) February 25, 2022

  He is not starting but is averaging ~15 MPG in games he's actually played in. On the other hand, Curbelo did well against Michigan last year and has the talent to blow up at any point—Underwood says that he's practiced a total of 14 times this year so it's understandable he's rusty, and a guy like Curbelo who's rusty is a walking explosion. 

• Kofi Cockburn's shooting efficiency has dropped significantly in Big Ten play. He's still very good and huge but last year he shot 66% from the floor; this year he's at 57%. He is still shooting FTs at a 65% clip instead of a 55% clip. 
• Alphonso Plummer has lost a lot of two-point efficiency in league play (43%) but remains a lethal shooter with a rock-bottom TO rate.
• Backup RJ Melendez is likely out after appendix surgery. As a result of his absence Coleman Hawkins got 26 minutes against Ohio State, up from his usual dozen. Illinois played him at the 5 some in that game despite Hawkins being a 6'10", 215 beanpole. That is unlikely to recur against Michigan, I'd expect the more post-ish Omar Payne. 

THE TEMPO FREE

Conference numbers are fairly ominous:

Illinois is #1 in the conference in three pointers attempted and three pointers prevented. The former is obvious since Cockburn demands more doubles than anyone in the league. The latter is not especially since they're the best in the league at defending twos. That's a powerful combination.  They also prevent assists well.

Illinois pushes a ton of opponent usage into the "other twos" zone. 44% of opponent shots are classified thusly, which is seven points better than league #2 Michigan. (Michigan's problem is not where the shots are coming from but the fact that they're second to last in the Big Ten at defending both at the rim and against other twos.)

THE KEYS

[Campredon]

Let them fight. It is Michigan versus Illinois with a full complement of players so obviously the Cockburn vs Dickinson kaiju battle will be the headline event. This was Dickinson's worst game of the season a year ago, as he went 1/8 from the floor with no assists. Dickinson did a good job of neutralizing Cockburn on the other end of the floor—while Cockburn went 6/10 from two a couple of those buckets were against a massively overmatched Austin Davis—but Michigan without an effective Dickinson was a mess last year and is even more of a mess this year.

Dickinson's increased shooting proficiency should help here, especially if he's able to lift Cockburn out of the paint, but he's going to have to hit some shots to activate that. After a hot streak he hasn't hit a three in four games.

Floater time. Illinois is going to force Eli Brooks and Devante Jones to take and make floaters. Those shots went down at surprising rates against Rutgers (Brooks even hit a Zavier Simpson sky hook). Continuing to hit those would be a critical 6-8 points.

Hooray for home Caleb Houstan. Ye gods:

Caleb Houstan is a different player at the Crisler Center. https://t.co/7GWsdg8yYV pic.twitter.com/IFYageTIK2

— Dylan Burkhardt (@umhoops) February 24, 2022

Houston's 5/9 from three against Rutgers was obviously a big deal—this space noted that Michigan had been getting mid-teens combined scoring from everyone not named Dickinson/Brooks/Jones in losses—and the above chart bodes well for this coming homestand, if not the (hypothetical) NCAA Tournament.

THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES

Michigan by 1.