That was brutal. Michigan swept Michigan State this weekend despite four of its top seven(ish) players being at the Olympics, and did so in vicious fashion, 6-2 and then 7-3. The former of which saw third string goalie Jack Leavy get time in net because the margin was so lopsided in the early third period. Any way you slice it, it was a resounding performance from the Wolverines and an embarrassing one from MSU. It's been a couple weeks since our last Hockey Weekly, and with new games to talk about, and now only two weeks left in the regular season, it's a good time to take stock of the season as it hits the home stretch: 

The Iron D Stays in Ann Arbor 

I said that Michigan didn't need a full roster to beat Michigan State, but I didn't expect the Wolverines to rip apart the Spartans so thoroughly like that. MSU is bad, they're scuffling amid a long losing streak, I get all that. But you can't let yourself get humiliated like that against a team without some of the best offensive players. Everyone got involved in the scoring this weekend for Michigan, but what really stood out to me was how Michigan's roster dominated possession to such an extent.

Your author is not unaware that Michigan State has been unable to control play this season against anyone, but this weekend was even more lopsided than the series in November, and that series came against the full Michigan roster. The second period of Friday's game was played almost exclusively in the MSU half of the ice and Michigan scored four times, three of which on the PP. Simply dominant, and just unacceptable if I'm the Athletic Director evaluating Danton Cole's job. MSU has now lost 9 of the last 10, 11 of the last 14, and four straight editions of the Duel in the D to Michigan. 

Luke Hughes was the big story for me this weekend. The freshman defenseman has been great all season long, but with Owen Power in China, Hughes stepped up in dazzling fashion. He posted a 3-3-6 line in two games this weekend as a defenseman, and now has tied Dean Turner (1976-77) for the most goals as a freshman defenseman in team history with 13. Given that Luke likely has 5+ games left this season at least, that record seems bound to fall. The more intriguing question is how close can he get to the program record for goals by a defenseman of any age in the 21st century, which Jack Johnson holds at 16. Most of Hughes' goals this season have come from jumping up into the play and being the aggressor, but this weekend we got to see his point shot be featured more on the PP: 

Luke Hughes now has 12 goals, moves into second place at Michigan for freshman defensemen in goal scoring pic.twitter.com/5QaNABLTqM

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 12, 2022

At this stage in their respective careers, Luke's slapshot is considerably better than Quinn's. He's also tied Quinn's freshman point total of 29 points. The transitional value that Luke Hughes gives Michigan was showcased in this PP goal that Dylan Duke scored: 

Dylan Duke bats in a power-play goal pic.twitter.com/xAlrrxFzy9

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2022

Michigan has been blessed this season by having so many transitional vehicles who can get the puck up ice, especially on the back end, and it's nice to still have Hughes, Blankenburg, and Edwards, even with Power away. Hughes made a great defensive play that helped kickstart a shorthanded goal off the rush, setting up Jimmy Lambert: 

That sauce though 👀 pic.twitter.com/kcwYP1raO3

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2022

Perhaps the only other major takeaway was how Michigan was able to generate two shorthanded goals on the same five minute major, with the above goal being one of the two. While yes, Michigan did end up surrendering two PPGs on that same major, you have to admit it was pretty hilarious content, especially when they came just over a minute apart. The first one was caused by Luke Hughes, and the latter was caused by the aggressive stickwork of Michael Pastujov to create a break for Thomas Bordeleau, who sealed it with his typically soft hands: 

Ewwwwwwww Bordy pic.twitter.com/godfciB5HP

— Michigan Hockey (@umichhockey) February 13, 2022

Michigan's PK has quietly been very good this season, even if their actual numbers took a significant dive this weekend thanks to Jack Leavy allowing two PPGs in his Friday night cameo. Michigan has regularly been able to use their speed and strategic aggressiveness to force turnovers and put pressure on the opposing PPs this year. It is not uncommon to see Michigan get better looks shorthanded than the opposing PP gets with the extra skater, as was the case on Friday and Saturday night. Together with a 26% PP and an 83% PK, Michigan is well over the magical "100" as the basic bar to entry for what constitutes good special teams. It is quite clearly the best special teams unit of the Mel Pearson era. 

This also ended up being a good weekend for the program guys, as Nick Granowicz, Philippe LaPointe, Nolan Moyle, and Jimmy Lambert (x2) got goals. Everyone was getting in on the action when the scoring chances were flowing so plentifully. Three weeks ago I wrote the following: 

While I would have preferred to have the NHL go to the Olympics and Owen Power be at Michigan (because it would be better hockey in both Beijing and Ann Arbor), this isn't a death sentence to Michigan's regular season B1G hopes. Players like Granowicz, Philippe LaPointe, Ethan Edwards, Thomas Bordeleau, and Mackie Samoskevich will all need to step up, something their talent level and/or past play suggests they're capable of doing.

The players mentioned in that second sentence combined for 5 goals, 6 assists, and 11 points this weekend. Pretty good! And also exactly what the Wolverines were going to need subtracting so much firepower from the top of the lineup. I said previously that getting MSU and OSU were good stylistic matchups for this modified roster because neither are super athletic nor skilled teams and the Nick Granowicz types would fit in just fine in this kind of hockey. So far it's been proven correct. We'll see if that's still the case this weekend. 

Erik Portillo remains a stud [James Coller]

One other name who needs a shoutout remains Erik Portillo. He likely would've collected another shutout on Friday night but Pearson chose to let Jack Leavy finally see the ice in a regular season game instead. Saturday was a little more hectic of a game and actually hurt his SV% slightly, but the numbers since Christmas remain elite: 9-0-2, .949 SV%, and a 1.55 GAA (counting OTL as a tie because PairWise essentially does so). Hard to beat that!

Michigan's formula this season has come clearly into view, riding very strong goaltending and an approach to the game that is the antithesis of PSU, prioritizing quality looks over quantity of shot attempts. Michigan is not a spectacular team in Corsi (a proxy for possession), but they generate tons of great looks on offense and have the finishers to convert them. On the flip side, they have done a very good job since the start of 2022 to minimize great looks against, and have a goaltender to save a pretty high percentage of the quality looks that are allowed. They are a team that makes me wish college hockey had an expected goals model, because they are playing for xG, not vanilla possession numbers like Corsi that we called "analytics" in 2009. 

In the process, that formula has started to manifest in the fabled Mel Pearson Midseason Improvement. This team's record since Christmas is the same of its starting goalie, having not lost a game in regulation in nearly two months. They are 9-0-2 with a +25 goal differential in those 11 games, scoring 4 goals per game (and that includes a scoreless outing against Michigan Tech during the WJC that featured a nearly unrecognizable roster offensively) and allowing just over 1.5 per game. When the full team plays together, it's like what I wrote back in October: this Michigan Hockey team is a national title favorite. Only Denver's devastating offense and Minnesota State's Choke The Life Out Of You defense and goalie tandem rival this Michigan team nationally in my mind. 

[AFTER THE JUMP: Assessing the B1G & national picture, and previewing OSU]

Michigan and Minnesota are the last two teams with a credible shot at the B1G crown [Madeline Hinkley]

Evaluating the B1G Chase 

We got quite a bit of clarity this weekend on what the chase for the B1G regular season crown will look like this weekend. The good news? The number of true competitors for Michigan has been slimmed to one, as Ohio State and Notre Dame have slid out of the picture barring something extraordinary. The bad news? Minnesota is in a strong position and it will not be easy for Michigan to win the title, even if they still control their own destiny. Here are the B1G standings with two weekends to go: 

Michigan holds pole position and in your author's opinion is pretty clearly the best team in the conference when every roster is complete. Notre Dame and Ohio State both had seemingly viable paths to the league title entering last weekend but fumbled away their shots at glory. OSU seemed to *arguably* be the top threat Michigan faced but got swept at home by an Olympic-shorthanded Minnesota team in two games that were not particularly close. Pretty shocking results.

The Buckeyes are now three points back of Michigan and one point back of Minnesota with only two games left to play. Those games are against Michigan at Yost this coming weekend (we'll do a preview of that later)... OSU is in a bad spot. Even if Ohio State were to sweep Michigan on the road (seems unlikely), Michigan would be able to jump back over OSU with four points in the final weekend while the Buckeyes are idle, AND it would require Minnesota going just 2-2 in their final 4 against Wisconsin and PSU (with one of those wins being in OT) to even earn a share of the conference crown. Doesn't seem likely. 

Notre Dame is in equally big trouble. They are ten points back of Michigan with four to play, meaning that a single Michigan win in regulation closest the door for the Irish. Thus, the stakes for this weekend are pretty tidy: a Michigan win in regulation this weekend over Ohio State eliminates the Buckeyes AND the Irish from title contention, locking up a top two seed in the conference tournament. 

Notre Dame and Ohio State find themselves in big time trouble after this weekend [James Coller]

Winning the regular season crown is much more tight because of how well the Golden Gophers played this weekend. Michigan wanted a split between Minnesota/OSU and did not get it. The Wolverines are two points up, but the Gophers have the vastly easier schedule. You'd still always prefer to be the team that is in the driver's seat and not the one who needs help as a prerequisite, though. However, just because Michigan doesn't need help doesn't mean they couldn't use it. Minnesota plays @PSU and then Wisconsin these last two weekends. Of those, PSU is the much clearer hope for help. The Gophers have struggled in Hockey Valley in recent years and one Nittany Lion regulation win would do wonders for the Maize & Blue. 

At the end of the day, if Michigan wants to win the B1G, they need to continue to do what they've done since Christmas, which is mow down the opposition. It is a tricky schedule, but Michigan is the best team in the conference. Minnesota just swept Ohio State and upped the ante, now it's time for Michigan to match. And then in the final weekend you go to South Bend, a place Michigan has played very well in recent seasons and against a team who Michigan had multi-goal leads against in both games back in November. Should the Wolverines not win the regular season crown, they only have themselves to blame, because they will have not taken care of business down the stretch AND will rue missed opportunities back in the fall (blowing both of those ND games, losing at home to Wisconsin). 

Beating Minnesota State in October was huge for Michigan's tourney resume [UMich Athletics]

National Picture 

Michigan continues to sit in the #1 spot in the nation in the PairWise rank, as they have for several weeks now. Getting the first overall seed is a pretty huge deal in the NCAA Hockey Tournament, because it means you would play the Atlantic Hockey champion, which, while not always a pushover, is a significantly easier matchup than any of the other 15 teams in the field. For reference, last season's #1 overall seed North Dakota drew Atlantic champion American International and beat them 5-1 in a game that was uncompetitive from the opening puck drop. It would be very nice to have that matchup in the first round. Still a bit early to say what Michigan needs to do to nail down that #1 overall seed beyond "keep winning hockey games", though.  

Gaming out the final PairWise standings when there are still two weeks of regular season play + three weeks of conference tournaments to go seems a tad bit premature, but it goes without saying that Michigan is in very good position to get at least a 1 seed. The gap in RPI between #1 Michigan and #5 Minnesota is the same as the gap in RPI between #5 Minnesota and #14 Northeastern. Michigan is currently 6-2-3 against top ten PWR teams and has that ultra-valuable win over #2 Minnesota State. There are only three teams that have records well north of .500 against top ten PWR teams, and they are obviously the top three teams in the rank, Michigan, Minnesota State, and Denver. Right now it would seem to me that those three teams are sitting in very good position when it comes to securing 1 seeds.

The top eight teams in PWR are all probably locks at this point, Michigan, Minn. St., Denver, WMU, Minnesota, Quinnipiac, Duluth, and St. Cloud. The next three, UMass, Tech, and North Dakota, are all close to locks too in my mind. The final four spots before the AQ spot for Atlantic Hockey kicks in is where the bubble action is. Ohio State, Notre Dame, Northeastern, and Clarkson occupy those spots in the present, followed by a herd of teams from out east. I've written previously about how much weaker the eastern conferences are than the western ones this season, and as it stands currently, just QPac, UMass, and Clarkson would get in from the east.

The potential movement is whether Notre Dame and OSU slump down the stretch, and whether some eastern teams continue to make hard charges (Boston U is on one of those right now). Even still, ND and OSU will be protected by the B1G doing well in non-conference matchups with the eastern conferences, it's just a matter of how much protection they have. Put another way, Michigan's matchup with the Buckeyes this weekend has extra special implications: not just can Michigan continue pushing themselves closer to the B1G title and eliminate OSU from title contention, but they can put their arch-rival in even more precarious bubble position for the tourney. And then the stakes are nearly identical the following weekend against the marginally less-hated, Catholic rival in Indiana.  

The rivalry continues (minus Will Lockwood) [James Coller]

An Ohio State Preview 

The Buckeyes enter Ann Arbor this weekend looking to rebound after this past weekend's trouncing by Minnesota. Michigan saw Ohio State down in Columbus back in early December, winning the first game and they were trailing 2-1 in the second game entering the third period when the wheels came off spectacularly en route to a 6-1 loss. That was one of Michigan's two worst games this season, so there's a bad taste in the mouth that this team will be aiming to avenge. OSU is led by star goaltender Jakub Dobeš, who boasts a .934 SV% and 20 wins, among the best marks in America. If you want to know why Ohio State has improved from abject to a possible tournament team in the span of one season, the team save percentage improving from .893 to .932 is reason #1 and their Czech star netminder is a huge part of that. 

The Ohio State offense is one of the highest scoring in the NCAA, yet they don't have many go-to big name players. Georgii Merkulov is a standout freshman with 18 goals thanks to him shooting an unfathomable 38.3% (!!!!!). Jake Wise and Cam Thiesing are two other forwards who have scored above 0.75 points per game, while Mason Lohrei is a big time defenseman, who leads the team with 25 assists and was drafted by the Boston Bruins in the 2nd round. Former Michigan commits Cole McWard and Patrick Guzzo dot the Buckeye lineup as well, so you can see them and think of what might have been. 

The big matchup remains Ohio State's dreadful 77% penalty kill matched up against Michigan's stellar 26.4% power play. The Wolverine PP won't have quite the same oomph without Beniers, Brisson, Johnson, and Power, but they'll still have Bordeleau, Hughes, Samoskevich, and others. Have to take advantage of that mismatch. I expect two competitive, physical games (as they always are against OSU), but I like Michigan's ability to get the better of OSU in this weekend series. Two wins in regulation are the aim given the conference standings.