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Technical Flyover: Taking on Georgia

Technical Flyover: Taking on Georgia
Ian Boyd December 28th, 2021 at 2:28 PM

Nowadays you typically have to throw the ball at a high level to win the National Championship.

Once you reach the playoffs, most teams are extremely hard to run the ball against. Everyone is loaded up with blue chip defensive linemen and savvy linebackers, it's why they won their conference (or came close) and made it this far in the first place.

Beating these teams, who have elite personnel and weeks to study your run game, requires a high level, pro-style passing attack (dropback, progression passing ideally from 11 personnel). There's only so much a defense can do against a great drop back passing game from the spread, the perfect throw beats good coverage.

There were two teams in college football this season with a Championship caliber, pro-style passing attack.

One of them went down in Michigan under snowfall, pass-rush, and quarters coverage. The other is on the other side of the playoff bracket from the Wolverines. The Cincinnati Bearcats are actually close but are likely missing the rarest and most difficult ingredient to a top shelf pro-style passing attack...a high caliber offensive tackle play.

Alabama is the one remaining pro-style passing team with the sort of trump card firepower to feel great about navigating the playoff bracket.

Georgia? They do two things very well which tends to excite college football punditry but doesn’t win Championships. They run the ball pretty well and are extremely difficult to run against.

Alabama probably takes this thing for the same reason they overcame Georgia in the SEC Championship. The Bulldogs’ abundance of massive, athletic defensive tackles and blazing fast linebackers couldn’t stop Bryce Young from throwing the ball down the field to Jameson Williams.

Michigan doesn't have the right personnel to win a Championship, but they don't have to worry about being an exception to the rule just yet. First they need to figure out how to beat Georgia without having a future first round draft pick quarterback or high level passing game.

[BREAKING DOWN THE GEORGIA MATCHUP AFTER THE JUMP]

Kirby Smart’s Bulldogs

Georgia under Kirby Smart has been terrific at nailing all the sorts of things which look impressive in the regular season but face diminishing returns in the playoffs. They have a pretty run-centric offense and while they stack 5-star talents across the offensive depth chart just as they do on defense, they clearly emphasize physical blocking in the inside zone/duo run game amongst their blue chips.

Here’s a picture of their offensive front:

Left tackle: Jamaree Salyer. 6-foot-4, 310 pounds. .9956 5-star from Georgia.

Left guard: Justin Shaffer. 6-foot-4, 330 pounds. .8828 3-star from Alabama.

Center: Sedrick Van Pran. 6-foot-3, 310 pounds. .9713 4-star from Louisiana.

Right guard: Warren Ericson. 6-foot-4, 305 pounds. .9070 4-star from Georgia.

Right tackle: Warren McClendon. 6-foot-4, 320 pounds. .9131 4-star from Georgia

Tight end: Brock Bowers. 6-foot-4, 230 pounds. .9532 4-star from California.

They aren’t as massive as you might think from their reputation, what they do well in Athens is recruit athleticism across the line and then teach these guys to get under pads and drive defensive fronts off the ball. Their best team prior to this one, the 2017 crew which lost the National Championship in overtime, had current New England left tackle Isaiah Wynn (6-foot-2, 311 pounds) at left tackle.

Georgia’s passing game hinges on the threat of their run game. They couldn’t really run the ball on Alabama and everything depended on former walk-on and current starting quarterback Stetson Bennett. He’s a good athlete with a live arm but he and their passing game aren’t up for executing high level, spread passing against a good defense. Alabama’s pressures got to them and Bennett threw a pair of picks, one of them for an Alabama touchdown.

Michigan is pretty well suited to defending them since they can put Daxton Hill on Georgia’s top receiver (tight end Brock Bowers) and then give the box and run game some extra attention. The Wolverines have quietly held up phenomenally well outside at cornerback this year and might as well count on doing so again vs the Georgia outside receivers.

They also have an advantage on the edges. Georgia’s left tackle Salyer is a great player but Alabama gave the Dawgs some troubles on the right side against Warren McClendon. Michigan’s unique advantage relative to the rest of college football is having star Edge rushers on either side of the D-line in Aidan Hutchinson and David Ojabo.

Of coure the biggest concern for Michigan in this game isn’t stopping Dawg points, it’s scoring any of their own.

What made Georgia the no. 1 ranked team for most of the season was this defensive front:

Defensive end: Travon Walker. 6-foot-5, 290 pounds. .9901 5-star from Georgia.

Nose tackle: Jordan Davis. 6-foot-6, 330 pounds. .8858 3-star from North Carolina.

Defensive end: Devonte Wyatt. 6-foot-3, 315 pounds. .9067 4-star from Georgia/KS JUCO.

Outside linebacker: Revolving door of 5-stars Nolan Smith, Adam Anderson, and Robert Beal.

Inside linebacker: Quay Walker. 6-foot-2, 240 pounds. .9830 4-star from Georgia.

Inside linebacker: Nakobe Dean. 6-foot-0, 220 pounds. .9908 5-star from Mississippi.

While he’s the lowest rated player, Jordan Davis is the most freakish and problematic piece to the puzzle. If you single block him he’ll drive an offensive lineman into the backfield and inflict havoc. If you double him, Devonte Wyatt can cause similar issues. If you double them both everyone else is running wild.

The most fearsome component though is their zone blitz packages in which Davis will slant and stunt across gaps and get replaced by one or both of Quay Walker and Nakobe Dean on inside blitzes.

Georgia will rush the passer in groups of four and have six different defenders with three sacks or more on the year. It’s not a team who will just whip you with a pure Edge like Michigan often does, their simulated/creeper blitzes are the name of the game.

Here’s one of their favorite concepts:

That’s 290-pound Travon Walker dropping into coverage as the end and 330-pound Jordan Davis going from nose to outside contain. This front is wild because these guys are true athletes.

Quay Walker will blitz first across the center’s face and then blazing fast Nakobe Dean will cross into the next A-gap or wherever he finds space. Dean had five sacks on the year and 20 quarterback hurries largely because of this concept.

It’s difficult to run the ball against them between their size and athleticism and then their capacity for inflicting negative plays in the blitz game. They spend much of their time just stacking linemen with their big front while their linebackers run to the ball and eliminate any real gains on the ground.

They can be victimized by the same biological issues confronting all massive humans, the oxygen demands of maintaining high level effort with huge muscles, but unless Michigan is ready to be an up-tempo team it won't matter.

The secondary is good, although Alabama chewed them up. They had to import Derion Kendrick from Clemson through the portal when their blue chip recruiting couldn’t replace all their departing starters from a year ago. Kendrick is solid but not an island corner. Smart coaches up defensive backs pretty well but they aren’t nearly as fearsome on the back end as they are up front.

How can Michigan defeat Georgia?

The main challenge of the game is this, Michigan was the Big Teniest Big 10 team this season, winning with physical play in the trenches and a brute squad powering the way for the run game, which makes them exactly the sort of squad Georgia is designed to beat.

The Bulldogs love for teams to try and square up to them in the trenches because no one has the same number of powerful athletes up front as they have accumulated through class after class of top five recruiting.

The obvious answer for Michigan is to win this game by trying to attack the Georgia secondary and move the focal point of the game away from their vaunted front. Michigan State baited the Wolverines into doing exactly this and while Cade McNamara dealt some damage, he couldn’t bring them down.

But what if Georgia isn’t better than Michigan up front?

What if Michigan has the guards, tight ends, and running backs to pound away at the Dawgs and find some points?

No one can think that Michigan is likely to be particularly efficient on offense attempting their power run game against Georgia, but how efficient do they need to be? 

You don’t have to outrun the bear, just the other campers. In this case, the other camper is Georgia’s offense trying to score against the Michigan defense.

At their best, Michigan mixes run and pass until they’ve worn an opponent down and can just run them over. Ultimately they want the outcome of this game to come down to the play of their O-line, Hassan Haskins, and Blake Corum against the Dawg front. If this comes down to whether Andrew Vastardis can pick up the blitz, McNamara can find windows in coverage, and Cornelius Johnson can get open it’s a shaky bet.

If Michigan can run the ball on Georgia, they stand to come out ahead in a struggle over which offense makes the least disastrous mistakes. Especially if the officials don’t overturn any obvious sack-strips.

So how can Michigan run on Georgia?

It’s tricky. Running between the tackles faces obvious perils while getting the ball to the wide edge is also a challenge. Big Travon Walker lines up to the wide side of the field setting hard edges or forcing wide angles Nakobe Dean can run down. Big Quay Walker aligns to the tight end and will blow up lead blocks (also to help set up Dean) and safety Lewis Cine also gets involved in a hurry from the boundary hash and is second on the team in tackles.

What I’d look for is Michigan to align in formations that allow them to run at Georgia’s speed and away from their power. Georgia aligns to make you beat their D-line or heavier Mike linebacker (Walker) in order to get to Nakobe Dean, but if you can? You just might be in business. They’re not really counting on facing someone like Zac Zinter who can pull around the edge and effectively seal inside one of their star outside linebackers. Like on a play such as this…

…running counter and other weakside power schemes running at Dean’s side of the field. For this play you get a double on big Jordan Davis, Ryan Hayes has a down block on Devonte Wyatt, Zac Zinter needs to pull and connect on whichever outside linebacker is on the field, and the tight end gets a chance at Nakobe Dean or else needs to clean up whatever he finds while trusting Haskins or Corum to make a guy miss and pick something up.

Michigan will also need to focus on popping those D-linemen with the right combinations to prioritize getting Haskins and Corum past the first level of the defense.

At some level of this game, the Wolverines have to trust their own to be better. You can’t run in terror from the Georgia defensive front and ask Cade McNamara and the receiving corps to win the game, you need to find some matchups you can live with and hope Ryan Hayes can angle block a tackle, that Zinter and Trevor Keegan can pull and hit their marks, and that your star running backs can break tackles or make people miss.

If Michigan can hold up against Georgia's own downhill run scheme and then win the battle of which quarterback best protects the ball between Cade McNamara (plus J.J. McCarthy in the inevitable package) vs Stetson Bennett? They win this game in the same manner they managed all their other victories this season.

Then they can worry about the challenge of beating a high level passing team who's linebackers actually know what they're doing.

micheal honcho

December 28th, 2021 at 3:13 PM ^

I think this is a Harbaugh classic. Use all sorts of formations and window dressing to cost their LBs & Safety an extra 1/2 step in doubt and run on them. Their athletes are way better than Iowa’s but I’m betting their easier to fool.

In reply to I think this is a Harbaugh… by micheal honcho

Buy Bushwood

December 29th, 2021 at 9:19 AM ^

There's an old axiom that you make huge linemen run all over the place.  So lots of outside stuff would seem in order.  Horizontal throws, reverses, counters, sweeps.  Make huge guys sprint 40 yards over and over.  

schreibee

December 28th, 2021 at 3:26 PM ^

My greatest concern is I'm too calm about facing UGA. I prefer to have a nervous edge bordering on mania! 

But then - I said the same vs Iowa and that turned out ok 🤷‍♂️

I called the B10 Title game "the chore you have to do before leaving on vacation." And it didn't turn out to be much more than that. 

With Georgia I'm feeling like it's like playing sparty, but without the insane rage & focus. I expect them to have a great gameplan & pop some things, but Michigan has proven to be better throughout the season. We should win!

Go Blue!

In reply to My greatest concern is I'm… by schreibee

stephenrjking

December 28th, 2021 at 4:32 PM ^

I'm calm, but part of that is because the season is such an enormous success already. This is bonus round time. 

In reply to I'm calm, but part of that… by stephenrjking

JonnyHintz

December 28th, 2021 at 9:34 PM ^

I’m usually in “meaningless bowl game” mode right now, so I think a big part of me being calm at this point is that it hasn’t really set in that Michigan has a CFP game on Friday. 

In reply to I'm calm, but part of that… by stephenrjking

ERdocLSA2004

December 29th, 2021 at 12:40 PM ^

This has been how I’ve been feeling as well.  Although lately I’ve realized that all the teams left are somewhat vulnerable.  So while we had the greatest season I can remember, and everything is a bonus now, I think we also find ourselves in one of the more “winnable” CFP’s of the last few years.  So now I’m thinking this might be our best actual chance to win this thing in the foreseeable future.  Bama and OSU are all going to take leaps next year.  So now I’m nervous again.

In reply to My greatest concern is I'm… by schreibee

ILL_Legel

December 28th, 2021 at 6:46 PM ^

I have the nervous edge covered.  I am usually really calm but this game has me completely on edge.  We travel all day tomorrow so that will keep me occupied.  Thursday and Friday will be dicey.  It’s times like these when I question why I quit drinking (besides the fact  that I can’t really drink if I want to keep living).

In reply to My greatest concern is I'm… by schreibee

KTisClutch

December 29th, 2021 at 2:31 PM ^

I don't get the comparison to Sparty at all. By all measures this UGA team is second to no one except maybe Bama in overall talent level. How has Michigan proven to be better than them all year? I don't get that. Every metric and Vegas sees UGA as a touchdown better right now. THat doesn't mean we can't or won't win, but I really think a lot of people are basically dismissing UGA because they lose one game against a team more talented than us with a gameplan we can not replicate.

In reply to I don't get the comparison… by KTisClutch

schreibee

December 29th, 2021 at 9:15 PM ^

Metrics? Who do the metrics say they've played (aside from bama?)

I compare them to sparty because they're good in the same areas msu usually is - strong front 7, aggressive, shutting down the run & finding ways to create pressure.

But I'm relatively calm because Uga will be bringing a massive superiority complex with them, rather than msu's insane inferiority & hatred! 

LabattsBleu

December 28th, 2021 at 4:09 PM ^

Going to be a fun game to watch.

I expect it to be tough sledding versus Georgia's defense. That said I have confidence in the staff to make adjustments.

Michigan is going to have some gadget plays and running into the speed of Georgia makes some sense for sure. The need to have some counter plays and reverses to use Georgia's speed against them. I really liked the play that Nebraska ran versus Michigan where Martinez pretended to run the ball only to do a pop pass over Ross' head. I think Georgia is susceptible to plays like that...

On defense, I expect Georgia to look pretty good - but like Iowa, who really looked effective in the first quarter and using the waggle, I do believe that MM will be able to make in game adjustments.

Really will be a chess match, that starts off slow, but will end with a flurry once the teams get comfortable with their opponent

Barry22

December 28th, 2021 at 4:22 PM ^

When thinking about how M wins this match-up, I keep coming back to Wisconsin. As fearsome as UGA's run defense may be, the Badgers were nearly as effective. And from a personal standpoint, may have been a more difficult assignment for Michigan because of how effective their ultra-stout linebackers were at negating our TE (and in some cases pulling guard) blocking.

UM may have cracked 100, but it took 44 carries to get there. Which in no small part contributed to the shitty 6/19 3rd down conversion rate.  

And yet, Michigan still put up 31 non-garbage time points. Is there anyone out there predicting it'll take more than 31 points wins this game?

The secret sauce in that victory was going 4/5 on 4th downs. UM doesn't need to average 4 ypc to win this game, but they do need to stay committed on the ground in order to make life easier on Cade and the passing game. And they do need to be able to get 2 yards when they absolutely need it. 

Fortunately for my nerves this week, we've seen them do that this year against a damn tough defense.

In reply to When thinking about how M… by Barry22

Double-D

December 28th, 2021 at 5:58 PM ^

Consider that Michigan’s offense is much more efficient and developed now than they were when we played Wisconsin.

That Iowa defense we just smoked was very well coached and damn good.

I feel like Michigan can win this match up.  

In reply to Consider the fact that… by Double-D

Barry22

December 28th, 2021 at 6:12 PM ^

Haha yes, much less split-zone! And add in plus 1s for Schoonmaker blocking leveling up, general health of the OL improving from where we were in that game, and a more fully weaponized JJ on the ground. Then subtract a few for UGA's interior being far more intractable than Wisconsin's, and having more dynamic safeties. Shake it all up and I personally still think we fall shy of 3 ypc. Point being, I think UM has proven that still stay committed to the run and score points under those conditions. 

In reply to When thinking about how M… by Barry22

Ian Boyd

December 28th, 2021 at 6:08 PM ^

UM may have cracked 100, but it took 44 carries to get there. Which in no small part contributed to the shitty 6/19 3rd down conversion rate. 
 

If they can get to 44 carries vs Georgia that’s a great sign. Means they were able to hold onto the ball and stay in the game. Would definitely take that.

I dunno about Georgia = Wisconsin. May be close in quality but I think this is a little different animal. These DL are like plus sized Rutgers guys.



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Technical Flyover: Taking on Georgia

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