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Something's been missing from Michigan gamedays since the free programs ceased being economically viable: scientific gameday predictions that are not at all preordained by the strictures of a column in which one writer takes a positive tack and the other a negative one… something like Punt-Counterpunt.

PUNT

By Bryan MacKenzie
@Bry_Mac

This column varies in how easy it is to write. Nebraska was really easy, because HOLY CRAP HAVE YOU SEEN NEBRASKA. Northwestern was harder because, holy crap have you seen Northwestern. But strangely, despite what you may have expected given this matchup, I have absolutely nothing interesting to say about this game. And I struggled all week to figure out why.

Sometimes a game lacks an interesting story line because of the quality of the opponent (see: Rutgers), the nature of the opponent (see: Army) or both (see, again: Northwestern). But this doesn’t fit those categories. Penn State is a good team; they’re ranked #23 in both polls, and the the advanced statistics like them even more than that. They went the distance with Ohio State, something Michigan hasn’t done in years.

Sometimes it’s the stakes. Playing an SEC school in a national showcase game might seem important in the abstract, when Michigan played Florida in the Peach Bowl, it could scarcely have felt more unimportant. But here? This game has serious implications for the conference title race and the college football playoff.

[After THE JUMP: What to do when you’ve already blown most of your season narratives in the first half of the season and are still planning on a blowout for the finale. Also how to get around OSHA]

Sometimes it’s because there are just too many football unknowns to get any sort of feel for the game, like first-time starter at quarterback or significant injury uncertainty. But we have nine games of evidence for both of these teams, and aside from a few unclear injury situations, they are known quantities. Sean Clifford is good but limited based on being tenderized by Iowa. Jahan Dotson is really good. Penn State’s offensive line and defensive tackles are really not. Michigan’s defensive ends are rampant. Hassan Haskins is going to hurdle fools.

So why does this game feel so much less climactic than it should?

My best guess: it doesn’t really fit with any of the narrative lines of the season, or of the Jim Harbaugh Era. It’s not a traditional rivalry game. It doesn’t directly factor into the buildup toward the season finale against Ohio State. It doesn’t fall into the usual talking points of “games Michigan should win vs. games where Michigan is an underdog,” as the line is basically a pick ‘em. And while two months ago it may have felt like a really important game for Harbaugh to keep his job, even if they lose in Happy Valley, Michigan is looking at a 9-3 season.

In short, it’s a bottle episode.

Most of you probably know this, but a “bottle episode” is the term for an episode of a television series that is very narrow in scope and cast. It’s usually shot in one or a small number of settings, involves a small number of cast members, and involves mostly dialogue. They are cheaper to film and easier to write and produce in a short period of time. In short, it’s a self-contained operation that may or may not relate to the broader context of the season itself.

Bottle episodes can be great. Seinfeld as a whole has aged really, REALLY poorly, but the Chinese Restaurant episode was remarkably innovative for the time, and is still relatable today, even after 73 years. Bottle episodes can also suck; some people love the Fly episode of Breaking Bad, but it is the lowest rated by fans of the show, most of whom were used to, you know, action and things happening and stuff. But bottle episodes don’t drive the plot. They literally don’t take the viewer anywhere.

The purpose bottle episodes DO serve is that they allow character development for the sake of character development. They give us a glimpse of what our heroes might do when we return to the main quest. Perhaps some dark secrets will be revealed. Perhaps a glimpse of some inner strength or a pool of steely resolve. We will know significantly more about the team by 3:30 today than we knew at noon, even if the practical differences between 9-1 and 8-2 are negligible.

No, this week, the game is important primarily because of the game itself. It should be a good football game between two good teams. It will likely be a close game. There is plenty of history between the teams, and enough story lines in the quasi-rivalry itself to keep things humming. There was the goal line stand in 1993 and Judgment Day and Touchdown Manningham and Michigan throttling Big Ten Champion Penn State in 2016 and Penn State throttling Michigan the next year and Michigan Revenge Touring Penn State the year after that.

This is a series that thrives on balance, and I think the forces of balance are calling for a Michigan win that everyone largely forgets in the grand scheme of the season.

Michigan 27, Penn State 20

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COUNTERPUNT

By Internet Raj
@internetraj

I once heard a story from the world of oil and gas construction about a lesson new safety engineers are taught early on in their careers:

“Always keep a bottle of Jack Daniels in your trunk.”

Why? Because inevitably, someone on the construction site will suffer an injury while on the job. And since oil and gas construction sites are often in the middle of nowhere, it’s up to the safety personnel to drive the injured worker to the nearest hospital. While en route to the hospital, the safety engineer is instructed to casually comment on how long the commute will be, pause, and then nonchalantly offer “hey, if you’re in a bit of pain you can take a swig of this Jack, it’s all I got.” The injured worker will almost always accept this offer. At the hospital, the doctors will run blood work, detect the alcohol, and voila – the company is no longer required to report an accident. Instead, the “accident” has been magically transformed into “operating under the influence”, which is great news for the company. The “It’s been X days since the last accident” sign will not have to be updated, the company’s safety statistics will be boosted, and the company’s next contract will no longer be in jeopardy.

There’s a very remote, but non-negligible, chance Michigan and MSU meet again in the Playoff, in which case, give me 47 of these.

This is an instructive (and particularly nefarious) example of how narratives can be massaged and gamed, something that is far from confined to the world of oil and gas construction. We saw it play out last week in the sports world, when the College Football Playoff Committee ranked Michigan ahead of Michigan State a mere two weeks after the Spartans beat the Wolverines on the field. Committee Chairman Gary Barta came on the television screen, offered the nation some Maize-fermented Jack Daniels, mumbled something about “Michigan being the more complete team” and, voila, just like that, Michigan became the better team.

Another much more long-standing narrative—one that has been pushed, pulled, rolled and kneaded by all sides—is that of Jim Harbaugh and the Big Game.

It’s often joked that every game is the biggest game of the Jim Harbaugh Era, unless he wins it. Harbaugh supporters often underscore that Michigan is one missed fourth down spot and a defensive scheme capable of handling crossing routes away from two Big Ten championships and Playoff appearances. Harbaugh’s detractors, meanwhile, point vigorously at his record against rivals and his futility against ranked opponents on the road. The truth, as usual, probably falls in the middle, but that of course is no fun.

Inconvenient counterpoint: this is the third time in seven tries that Harbaugh has Michigan squarely in Playoff contention in mid-November

There’s a lot of Narrative™ swirling around today’s Penn State game. A loss is yet another bullet in the chamber for Harbaugh’s detractors, yet another stumble against a marquee road opponent. A win, meanwhile, keeps Michigan’s conference title and Playoff aspirations intact, and would likely set the table for a winner-take-all showdown against the Buckeyes. It will also most likely push #23 Penn State out of the rankings, thus rendering it, like their 38-17 victory at Wisconsin earlier this season, “Not a big game.”

I want to believe that this team is different, will snap our two-game losing streak against Penn State and take care of business in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, we’ve been down this road too many times before. Harbaugh supporters—and I count myself within this group—better have some Jack Daniels ready because the “It’s been X days since the last time Jim Harbaugh lost a big game” sign is on the verge of being updated.

Michigan 20, Penn State 21