Formation Notes: Michigan responded to Washington bone look with this front I called 4-2 Eagle.

John Donovan likes his tight WRs and TEs off the line where they can crack. I think that opens you up to safety blitzes and the like, but what do I know—I have never coordinated anything. This play was a double safety blitz that delivered Hill to the RB at the handoff.

I don’t know what to call this, which came out on passing downs:

We went with “5-1 split” but that’s Ross between the nose in the frontside A-gap and Hutchinson in a 7-technique on the weakside.

OForm/Fronts. I gave up on the numbering for techs because it wasn’t enough detail for coaches and too much for the laymen so we’re back to “Even”/”Odd” stuff. But I’m adding personnel numbering to the offensive formations so I can track O-Pack. The first number is how many RBs and the second is how many TEs, and you subtract from 5 to get the # of WRs. So 22 personnel is 2RB, 2TE, 1WR, and 11 personnel is 1RB, 1TE, 3WR, etc. If not mentioned it’s standard: 11 for Shotgun, 12 for Ace, 21 for I-form. “Wk” or “St” refers to where the slot receiver is in 3-wide sets. “F” means the lone TE is off the line. “[ ]-Flex” means that box positions is split out wide, or if they all are I’ll just say “5-w.”

Substitution Notes: The starting line was Morris (WOLB), Hinton, Smith, Hutch. Still plenty of rotation on the line: Morris plays both T and OLB, Smith is the N or a T, Jenkins is the next T in, then Welschof, then Speight. Jeter the first one out. Whittley came in as a nose a few times and wears #3. Rod Moore was the dimeback and non-Dax Hill nickel, and got meaningful snaps. Junior Colson rotated possessions with Nikhai Hill-Green. Michigan debuted a pass-rushing front of Hutchinson, Morris, Upshaw, and Ojabo that I called “Racecar.”

On with the show.

[After THE JUMP: What did I say about John Donovan?]

Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	I-Twins Unbal	4-2-5	Under	3	PEN		Delay	The Fans	-5	-0.74
UW comes out with the TE covered. Helpful M fans let them know about the ineligible receiver though M has this smoked. W takes a delay of game. That'll shut us up. Fans(+1). RPS+1.
O20	1st	15	I-Twins Unbal	4-2-5	Under	3	Run		FB Counter	Morris	-2	-0.40
Morris(+2) ignores FB's counter and won't get chipped. Brings RB to a stop and then Ross(+1) comes flying in with help. Do I RPS John Donovan? Okay. RPS+2 Hill(+.5) and Moten(+.5) came too.
O18	2nd	17	Ace Tight	4-2-5	Eagle Over	4	Run		Split Zone	Ross	12	0.49
Hinton(+1) gets in the backfield and Smith(+.5) has his guy rocked back so it's just up to Ross(-2, tackling-2) to get past the C and tackle. He whiffs. Hawkins(-1, tackling-1) is hanging backside even though Green's got it, whiffs. Moten(+.5) stops it after a big gain.
O30	3rd	5	Gun 12 Trips Tight	5-2-4	Under	1	Pass	4	Curl	Green	Inc	-0.37
Harrell backs into an ILB spot pre-snap. RPS-1 I think M screwed up their firedrill substitution. Hutchinson(+2) bulls this draft pick LT and Morris has to throw to this TE who's trying some flagrant GETERFME OPI (refs-2) on Green(+1, cov+1) that doesn't matter because ball is at his feet, not lying.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 13 min 1st Q. Other than the tackling, how we feeling?
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O26	1st	10	I-Twins Unbal	5-2-4	Under	1	Run		Power	Ross	2(-14)	-0.37
W stands around then runs to the line. M gets set fine. Jenkins(-1) gets washed past the PoA but recovers, Harrell(+1) constricted the gap by running at the TE though he's high man. Ross(+1) shoots through puller at the LoS and Hill(+.5) is there because RPS+1 M saw the covered receiver. Forward momentum is stopped but the play keeps going and the RB starts to burrow for 2 more until Jenkins lands on him. RT keeps trying to hit NHG and draws a flag.
O14	2nd	22	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Over	2	Pass		TE Screen	Moten	12	0.22
Looks dead because M rotated to a cov3 at the last minute that has Moten (RPS-2) stretched btw the TE and WR (cov-1) and Hutchinson attacking the edge so he won't stick with the TE (no minus for this). NHG(+1) sees it and he takes out two blockers while Moten(-1, tackling-1) tries to dive inside to end at LoS. Like that he tried. Gray(-1, tackling-1) comes up but whiffs on Otton as well. Hawkins(+.5) finally knocks him out near the original LoS.
O26	3rd	10	Gun St Tight	4-2-5	5-1 Split	3	Sack	4	Sack	Hutchinson	-4	-0.24
Coverage (cov+3) lasts a long time because there's only 3 guys in a route. Ojabo(+1) shoots at 9 yards vs a dbl and forces Morris to step up. Hutchinson(+1, PR+2) has now whipped the LT and come back inside. He sneaks up behind and Upshaw(+1) who's been guarding lanes helps clean up.
Drive Notes: Punt. 0-0. 9 min 1st Q. Stop tingling, Donovan ran a 3-man flood on 3rd and 10.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Bone	4-2-5	5-1 Split	1	Run		Split Zone	Hill	0	-0.70
RPS+3 as Donovan runs the play "Please blitz into my RB." Hill(-2, tackling-2) obliges but misses the tackle, Moten came too but thinks it's too easy and redirected at the QB since Dax was in the RB's legs, Smith(+1) planted the LT 2 yards deep and Colson(+1) comes up to end this.
O25	2nd	10	I-Form	4-2-5	5-1 Split	1	Run		Power T	Ross	2	-0.23
Hawkins is placing everyone then Colson comes up and butt-taps Smith to move over. That doesn't do but but the RG stands like he thinks he's pulling the other way. Hinton(+2) ends up standing up a weird double that's a G hugging a T's butt and the real puller gets stuck behind this. Ross(+1) shoots up and sticks the FB. Hole closed, Hutchinson(+.5) was unblocked backside and comes around to tackle.
O27	3rd	8	Gun St Tight	4-2-5	5-1 Split	2	Pass	4	Throwaway	Ross	Inc	-0.22
UW does the huddle-tempo thing again. Breaks huddle at 9 seconds, lined up at 7, M is lined up at 6, snap at 4. Okay. Extreme Donovan with just 2 men in routes whom Green(+1) and Gray(+1, cov+2) are all over. Upshaw(+1) gets around his guard, and Ross(+2) activates pursuit. Morris jumps out of the pocket and throws it at the sideline. I mean whoa.
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-0. 5 min 1st Q. I didn't realize it was this bad. Next drive starts on the 1.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O1	1st	10	Ace Tight	5-2-4	Odd	1	Run		Dive	NHG	0	-0.24
Smith(+1) bends his G back and that is enough space for Ross(+1) to thunk a C and NHG(+1) to tackle for no gain.
O1	2nd	10	Pistol Ace	5-1-5	Odd	1	Pass	4	Bootleg	Ross	Inc(+15)	0.65
Ross(+1) shoots a gap and gets taken out by the RB but flushes into Hinton(+1, PR+2) off the edge. Nobody is close to open(cov+1). Hinton shoves Morris as he's throwing and picks up a HORRIBLE flag (refs-3). If you're wondering the difference between 3rd and 10 on the 1 and 1st and 10 on the 16 is 0.75 EP.
O16	1st	10	I-Form	5-2-4	Odd	2	Run		End Around	Hill	-4	-0.65
You tried to edge Dax Hill(+1), how did that go? Nowhere because Hutchinson(+2) planted his arcing TE in the backfield and set an edge. NHG(+.5) is also outside his blocker. Jenkins(+1) comes through and he and Dax reintroduce Giles Jackson to the Michigan Stadium turf.
O12	2nd	14	Ace Tight	5-2-4	Odd	2	Run		Pitchout	Turner	4	-0.02
You tried to edge Dax Hill(+2) again but got away with a lucky horsecollar (refs-2) after he shot by or this a potential 4-yard loss. Turner(+1) comes up and takes out the RB's legs and NHG(+.5) finishes.
O16	3rd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Racecar Over	2	PEN	4	False Start	NA	-5	-0.10
Pass rush line is Hutch-Morris-Upshaw-Ojabo. The two "DTs" are a little confused. UW center tries to take advantage and snaps without waiting to set.
O11	3rd	15	Gun Wk	3-2-6	Racecar Over	2	Pass	4	Quick Seam	Moore	16	1.41
UW exacts maximal damage from Moore(-3, cov-2, tackling-1), who is the curl/flat guy in Cov3 whose 1st responsibility is the seam but needs to drive on the slant as soon as the #2 he's over stems in (he has safety help). He doesn't drive until after the ball is thrown. Play design allows him to give up 5 on a slant; he gives up an 11-yard pass then gets spun by the WR for five more on 3rd and 15. Dammit freshman.
O27	1st	10	Gun Tight	4-2-5	Over	1	Run		Split Zone	Colson	3	-0.32
Colson(-1) is running on the field late. Hutchinson attacks the QB and has a thundersack if this is PA but it's just SZ (RPS-1) which is scary because Ross(-1) is engaged inside with the T and there's a Gary vs. Barkley cutback lane the RB doesn't take because Smith(+1) has the C just deep enough in the backfield. Ojabo(+.5) and Hinton(-1) had the backdoor closed until Hinton is taken down in a way that's often called holding even though it isn't. Hawkins(+1, tackling-1) shoots inside this and would be +2 if he doesn't miss the tackle. It still delays the RB enough for the LBs to arrive. If Colson's in the right spot at the snap this is a TFL.
O30	2nd	7	Gun 12 5-w	5-1-5	Odd	2	Pass	5	Smoke Screen	Gray	6	0.29
Gray(-1) comes up and just needs to hold his ground bc NHG is arriving, but gives up an extra 4 on the sideline to make this 3rd and short instead of 3rd and 5.
O36	3rd	1	Bone	5-2-4	Eagle Over	NA	Run		Split Zone	Jenkins	0	-0.76
Yeah! Jenkins(+1) goes under his TE and the kicker. Hinton(+1) has his G planted a yard deep and Hutchinson(+1) rocked his TE back into this mess. RB can only cut into Gray(+.5) and NHG(+.5) on the edge. UW lines up to go for it, jumps early and is flagged, gets it, and then the play is waved off for a Michigan timeout. UW comes back and punts because the Frames Janklin has spread.
Drive Notes: Punt. 3-0. 12 min 2nd Q. Frames.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun 12 Trips	5-2-4	Odd Wide	2	Pass	4	TE Out	Turner	6	0.33
Subs in. Smith(+2, PR+2) blows a guy into the QB's lap but TE out is open under Cov3 (RPS-1, Cov-1). Turner(+1, tackling+1) brings non-Otton TE down.
O31	2nd	4	Ace Trips Tight	5-2-4	Over	1	Run		Dive	Green	2	-0.55
Smith(+1) stands up G, Jenkins(-2) gave up 2 yards though. Ross(+1) shoots into the C, M has an extra guy bc Dax and Green(+1, tackling+1) are in the box. RB chooses Green and gets to where Jenkins has spun off.
O33	3rd	2	I-Heavy 2TE	5-2-4	Under	NA	Run		FB Dive	Ross	3	1.15
Smith(+1) stands up to a dbl, Upshaw(+1) rocked back the T, Ross(-1) has a chance to stick for a loss but gets powered through.
O36	1st	10	Gun Tight	5-2-4	Odd	2	Pass		TE Out	Turner	7	0.71
Same deal. Hinton(+1) whips bad G, Smith(+1) again pushing C back, but Cov3 vs TE out (RPS-1) and Turner can only push the guy out after 7.
O43	2nd	3	Ace Trips Tight	5-2-4	Over Wide	2	Run		Pitchout	Ross	2	-1.81
Looks dangerous but Harrell(+1) got his TE into the backfield with a hands to the face (refs+1) and Ross(+2, tackling+1) shot through a block to stuff this. Refs-1 give it back by not calling a T trying to pull Green's shirt over his head.
O45	3rd	1	Ace Trips Tight	5-2-4	Odd	NA	Run		Dive	Hinton	1	-1.04
Hinton(+1) gets under a T, Hutchinson(+1) split a double, Jenkins(-1) moved by a double, but Ross(+1) shoots past the G that freed to join plus Hill(+1) and Hawkins(+1) for a stop short of the sticks. Spot is generous, still short, but refs call it good anyway (?!?) then review (?!!) and overturn (!!!). You can do that?
O45	4th	1	Ace Heavy	6-2-3	Goal line	NA	Run		QB Sneak	Whittley	0	2.06
Team Heavy is Smith-Whittley-Jeter-Hinton. Whittley(-1) is in wearing #3 which is delightful. But he goes high and they go low, and Hinton(+2) went lower, and almost stops it but they get it. Hill(-1) refs+1 jumps on the pile don't do that you'll get flagged man.
O46	1st	10	I-Twins	5-2-4	Odd	1	Play-Action	4	TE Post	Hill	17	1.13
Whittley remains for Smith. M sucked in badly by PA (RPS-2) and not getting to QB (PR-1). Responsible parties were Ross(-1) and Hill(-1, cov-2) who was way down looking for a run but he gets back there fast.
M37	1st	10	Gun 11 5-w	5-1-5	Over	2	Pass		TE stick	Harrell	5	0.08
Harrell in at LB. Attacks Cov3 hole, but Gray attacking now. Cov-push. Tackling+1.
M32	2nd	5	I-Form	5-2-4	Odd	1	Play-Action	4	Deep Dig	Green	Inc	-0.77
Lots of time (PR-2) to throw IN at Jackson that Green(+2, cov+2) had covered.
M32	3rd	5	Gun Str	4-2-5	Okie	1	Run		Zone Read	Hawkins	1	-0.75
RPS+2 since M has a double-safety blitz on with Hawkins(+.5) who gets there first, and Moten from each side that can play both sides of the read. Can't go forward because Upshaw(+1) got his turn at 'ol revolving door LG.
M31	4th	4	Gun Str Tight	5-2-4	Okie	1	Run		Zone Read	Hutchinson	-2	-2.51
Same play! And they run it as the playclock is running out so everyone gets to jump it!!! LOLOLOL. RPS+3 because this time Hutchinson(+2) is here too. He picks up the RB and rips the ball out. Thanks John Donovan!
Drive Notes: Turnover. 10-0. 5 min 2nd Q. You know that moment when you realize something you wrote is going to be used in someone's lawsuit against their OC?
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O34	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Under Wide	1	Pass	4	TE Wheel	Hawkins	Inc	-0.99
Back out Hutchinson and bring NHG, stoned (PR-2). Time to find someone, chooses TE Wheel that Hawkins(+2, Cov+2) has blanketed after absorbing some light OPI. He PBUs. Mmmm, coverage.
O34	2nd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Even	1	Sack	4	Sack	Hutchinson	-5	-0.87
Hutchinson(+2, PR+3) puts the LT on a skateboard then MOTORSACKs. Smith(+1) is casually shoving by UW's useless LG to help.
O29	3rd	15	Gun 12 Trips	4-2-5	5-1 Split	2	Pass	4	Throwaway	Hutchinson	Inc	-0.12
Hutchinson(+2, PR+2) splits a GT double. It's a 7-man Prot so nowhere to go (Cov+1) and TA
Drive Notes: Punt. 10-0.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O36	1st	10	Gun Wk	3-1-7	Prevent	4	Pass	4	Cross	Gray	Inc	-1.04
Almost want to let him catch it but Gray(+2, cov+2) plays it perfectly. Pad those stats my man.
O36	2nd	10	Gun Wk	3-1-7	Prevent	4	Pass	3	Deep Cross	Gray	17	-0.58
Guy catches it on the 50, immediate tackle. Gray(-1, tackling+1) gives up a catch by not contesting, takes him down inbounds with 2 seconds.
M47	1st	10	Gun St	3-1-7	Prevent	4	Pass	3	Deep Cross	Gray	25	-3.39
Same thing. No chance of scoring, Gray runs him OOB.
Drive Notes: EoH. 10-0. Next drive is the Bone Drive, which takes most of the 3rd Q with M up three scores and happy to burn clock.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O18	1st	10	Bone	5-2-4	Odd	2	Run		Split Zone	Colson	6	0.27
Smith(+1) bends the line, two guys end up in the next gap. Blame Colson(-2) is my guess as Hinton(+1) outside-insided a T and the LB has to play off that. He had time. Confused freshman opens a bounce that would have been a TFL.
O24	2nd	4	Bone	5-2-4	Odd	1	Run		Split Zone	Ross	1	-0.55
Same thing the other way (RPS+2 DONOVAN!!!) and Smith(+1) again bends the line. Ross(+.5) and Colson(+.5) combine to stick.
O25	3rd	3	Bone	5-2-4	Over	1	Play-Action	5	Bootleg	Hill	4	0.99
This is some MTSU QB luck on a play that's vastly more likely to end in a turnover than a reception. Hutchinson(+1, PR+1) is on Morris and waving his hand at his throwing hand--90% this is a tip ball. Hill(-1, cov-1) is baiting an interception--can tell because he is leaping back to it with Morris's arm motion. Ball goes through his hands and into TE's. Results-based charting, but RPS+1 Michigan was all over this to the point they were trying to turn it into a turnover. Ross(+1, tackling+1) puts a lick on and makes it hard to hold on (he does).
O29	1st	10	Bone	5-2-4	Over Wide	1	Play-Action	5.5	PA Cross	Harrell	Inc	-0.83
Another 50%+ to be a turnover that's almost a 1st down. Ross(+1, PR+2, tackling-1) RPS+1 comes through unblocked on a blitz but whiffs, which made Morris drift into a near self-sack on Hutchinson(+1) who clobbers as he throws. Harrell(-1, cov-1) didn't get much depth and that left plenty of room for WR#17 to come back and almost grab this off the turf. Likelihood of ball getting to this guy vs a M player: 10%?
O29	2nd	10	Gun 11 5-w	4-2-5	Over Wide	2	Pass	5	Shallow Cross	Ross	Inc	-0.44
Again Ross(+1, PR+2) through immediately and Jeter(+1) is right behind. Pass to the open crosser underneath (Cov-2, TEAM-2) would be batted by Ross so this is turfed at Hutch's feet instead.
O29	3rd	10	Gun 12 Trips Y-Flex	5-1-5	5-1 Split	1	Pass	5	Deep Out	Green	19	3.03
More dumb luck. Hinton(+1) and Colson(+1, PR+2) coming through to sack, tosses up a light ball in double coverage that goes over Hill(-1, cov-1) fingertips. Also Green (+1, cov+1) is on this, has a hand inside the WR's when the ball arrives, and somehow can't rake it out. Hawkins(+.5) arrives soon after because now this guy is getting YAC.
O48	1st	10	Bone	4-2-5	Over Wide	1	Run	4	Draw	Morris	6	0.36
Smith(+2) has his G two yards in the backfield to the point where the RB trips. Could be over there but Morris(-2) is mis-gapped and Hill(-1) kicked hard by a TE.
M46	2nd	4	Bone	5-2-4	Over	1	Run		SZ Cross	Colson	4	0.35
RPS-1 Donovan brings a WR across and M slants that way, LBs too. Hinton(-1) blown back by a double, Colson(+1) still manages to dodge an OL waiting for him, and Hawkins(+1) came down LB like to close main gap, but room behind Hinton to burrow for a 1st.
M42	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Under Wide	1	Pass	4	Slant	Gray	18	0.61
Gray(-1, cov-2) is expecting Harrell(-1) to help on in-breaking routes, recovers to tackle.
M24	1st	10	Ace Trips Tight	5-2-4	Okie	0	Run		Dive	Colson	2	-0.16
M is in goal line at their 24. Donovan... Smith(-1) is slow off the line and eats a double, but Colson(+1) comes free and there's a wad of bodies here. Successful run if it's 2nd and Goal from the 2 though. It's not. RPS+2.
M22	2nd	8	Bone	5-2-4	Over	2	Run		End Around	Colson	12	0.33
RPS-2 as Michigan is bringing a double safety blitz that chases this around backside. Also a freshman mistake as Colson(-3, tackling-1) doesn't react to this until way late. Hinton(+2) does his best to hold two blockers inside and make a third go around him and Gray(+.5) came up to force this back but Colson overruns and misses the tackle. RR
M10	1st	Goal	I-Form	5-2-4	Over	1	Run		Power Lead	Whittley	2	-0.10
Hello big guy. Whittley(+2) ragdolls the BS G and meets the RB at the LOS. Double beat back Jeter(-1) but NHG(+1) fully extends into one of the lead blockers and cuts off any escape from Whit.
M8	2nd	Goal	I-Twins	5-2-4	Over	1	Sack	5	PA Slants	Hutchinson	-2	-0.46
Wants the TE but Harrell(+2, cov+2) has that well-covered  with Dax around for help because it's a 3-man route (DONOVAN). Green(+1) and Gray(+1) also on like glue. Whittley(+.5) slowly motors into the backfield but can't get anything with his grab and is sealed. Hutchinson(+2, PR+2), whipped the RT, forced Morris into Whittley's rush, then sacked. Jeter(-1) finally broke his double but that put him out of his lane so if Hutchinson can't get back this is a scramble.
M10	3rd	Goal	Gun Str	4-2-5	Under	2	Pass	4	Fade	Hill	Inc	-0.44
You tried to fade Daxton Hill(+1, cov+1) it didn't work out for you.
Drive Notes: FG(28). 17-3. 6 min 3rd Q. This drive took 5 minutes, 14 plays, five DONOVANs, and reduced Washington's win likelihood from 5% to 4.2% I dub it The Bone Drive.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O26	1st	10	Bone	4-2-5	Even	1	Run		End Around	Hill	1(+15)	1.35
Tried to edge Daxton Hill(+2) and it didn't work out for you, in part thanks to Green(+1) because Hutchinson(-1) overran. Turner(-3) blasted the QB on the backside and got caught.
O41	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Over	2	Play-Action	4	PA Post	NHG	33	1.94
Don't have All-22 for this but think it was a Moten(-2, Cov-3) bust since it's 20 yards downfield and he's the MoF. It's a huge bust if so because Ross (who has the RB) NHG (who's 15 yards deep on the other hash) and Dax (who's over the TE out maybe a little too fast?) are in cov3 zones. Might be Dax didn't carry far enough but where it's thrown is MoF guy.
M26	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Under Wide	2	Run	4	Scramble	Hinton	3	-0.15
Hinton(-2) gambles on an inside rush, runs into Smith(+1, PR+1) beating back a double, and there's a lane inside that a diving Ojabo can't squeeze closed. NHG(+1) close so QB gives up after 3.
M23	2nd	7	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Over Wide	1	Run		Power	Jeter	1	-0.40
Jeter(+2) fights off a double, absorbs the puller, Speight(+.5) and NHG(+.5) arrive from the sides to stick for no gain.
M22	3rd	6	Gun Trips Wk	5-1-5	Odd	0	Pass	5.5	Fade	Moore	22	3.26
RPS-2 catch Michigan in Cover Zero and target the true Fr on a fade. Moore(-1, cov-1) was behind 2 steps but made them up and just needs to react a bit sooner to break it up. He does get a swipe but results-based.
Drive Notes: Touchdown. 24-10. 12 min 4th Q. Michigan goes three-and-out, and bolded alter ego is yelling "We're going to blow it right here."
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O18	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Over	2	Pass	4	TE Zip	Ross	Inc	-0.51
Clear out BS for their TE vs Ross(+2, cov+2) who wins. Hutchinson(+1, PR+1) was coming through.
O18	2nd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Over	1	Pass	4	Curl	Green	5	0.04
Colson(+1, PR+1) is through on a blitz and Morris has to get rid of it under the Cov2. Green(+1, push cov) only has to keep this in front of him and inbounds, does so.
O23	3rd	5	Gun Str	4-2-5	5-1 Split	1	Pass	4	Comeback	Gray	9	1.44
I feel like a Gray slappy but Colson(-1, cov-2) and Ojabo can't possibly both be covering the same spot. They are, and Gray(-1) for doing what he can in man or the Gray Haters will think I'm an apostate, but he's over this and tackling on the catch.
O32	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Over	2	Pass	4	Sack	Jeter	3(-13)	-1.48
Good spot to blow out your voice. Colson(+.5) blitzes and is popped by the RB but that plus Jeter(+1, PR+1) passing a guard flushes. Jeter oversells a little yank that happens every play. Refs+2 calculate their chances versus 100,000 people in yellow and throw the yellow thingy. Speight(+1) runs him out after a short gain anyways.
O22	1st	20	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Okie	1	Pass	5	Slant	Hill	13	1.10
PR-1 as the blitz is picked up, leaving Hill(-1, cov-1) with no help inside (RPS-1).
O35	2nd	7	Gun Str	4-2-5	Mangled	2	Play-Action	4	X Flat	Green	3	-0.32
DTs change and are net set as Smith(-1) bumped into Jeter as they snap. PR-2 as Upshaw(-1) stays home for run, but nobody to throw to so he goes at Green(+1, cov+3, tackling+2) who gives up the catch but slams him down for a minimal gain.
O38	3rd	4	Gun Trips Wk	4-2-5	Over	1	Pass	5	Scramble	Upshaw	7	1.94
Hutchinson(-1) gets a double and a blindside chip from the TE that knocks him over before he can engage them and that negates Colson. Jeter(+1) steps around this to pressure but Ross(-1, PR+2) gambles and loses by going inside the RB for a thundersack instead of containing, just misses. Smith(+.5) is a hair late on knocking down the LT to collect the sack. Flushed, but Upshaw(-1) is taking his coverage a bit too seriously and can't fill before the line to gain.
O45	1st	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Over	2	Pass	4	Stop	Turner	11	0.86
Turner(-1, cov-1) playing off and can't contest even when it's not thrown well. Upshaw(+1, PR+1) swam through RT so this was the last read.
M44	1st	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Over	2	Pass	4	Slant	Colson	Inc	-0.97
No doubt this time. Colson(-2, cov-2) is supposed to take the slant from Turner and does not. They yell at him. Smith(+1, PR) shoved C into the pocket and might have affected the bad throw. Pulled for a talking to for NHG.
M44	2nd	10	Gun Wk	4-2-5	Even	1	Pass	4	TE out	Hawkins	Inc	-1.07
Morris(+1, PR+1) through a double and puts C in backfield, Hinton(+1) bats it. Was going to Otton whom Hawkins(+1, Cov+2) was all over; would have intercepted if he wasn’t.
M44	3rd	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	Okie	0	Pass	5	Slant	Turner	Inc	-0.89
Cover zero but Morris and Ross are not out here. Turner(+2, cov+2) is however and PBUs. RPS-1 had to be a great play to break this up.
M44	4th	10	Gun Str	4-2-5	5-1 Split	2	Pass	4	TE Dig	Hawkins	Inc	-0.67
They die as they lived. RPS+3 as Michigan knows exactly where this is going. They send Ross(+1, PR+1) who leaps over the RB and forces a first read throw. Both safeties are sitting on it. Hawkins(+2, Cov+2) is in the process of intercepting when Hill(+1) is like Not Unless You Do It Like Jourdan Man and PBUs the INT. Hawkins clarified after that he's pounding the dirt saying "YES!" not mad that his INT was stolen. Stolen it was.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. 24-10. 7 min 4th Q. They do not, in fact, blow it. When UW gets the ball back it's 31-10 with 1:40 left so this is just to get clips for next year's preview.
Ln	Dn	Dst	OForm	DPack	Front	Hi	Type	Rush	Play	Player	Yds	EPA
O25	1st	10	Gun	4-2-5	Over		Pass	4	Fly	Green	45	3.26
The stat padder. Green(+1, cov+1) is inside this guy, can't turn around because he's inside this guy. Guy catches it. Apologize to the gypsy.
M30	1st	10	Gun	4-2-5	Over		Pass	4	TE Out	NHG	Inc	-0.56
Floater that NHG(+1) breaks up.
M30	2nd	10	Gun	4-2-5	Over		Pass	4	TE Flat	Moore	Inc	-0.76
McGregor(+1, PR+1) pressures. Off-target nearly pick-sixed by Moore(+2, cov+1)
M30	3rd	10	Gun	4-2-5	Over		Sack	4	Sack	Ojabo	-8	-2.42
The Ojabo spin move vs Kirkland and subsequent Football Walk.
M38	4th	18	Gun	4-2-5	Under		Pass	4	Throwaway	McGregor	Inc	-0.45
Ojabo(+.5), Morris(+.5) and McGregor(+1) flush and follow out to sideline and McG is taking him down as he throws it to the Michigan sideline.
Drive Notes: Turnover on Downs. Game over for Defense.

So I have another hot take for the podcast.

It’s kind of late for that.

Maybe you can edit it in?

Just…what is it?

JOHN DONOVAN IS A TERRIBLE MICHIGAN SLEEPER AGENT, BECAUSE HE’S WAY TOO OBVIOUS.

I had a feeling this was where you were going.

So you have seen bad coordinating.

I’ve seen Al Borges put Denard Robinson under center.

But was it like this? Remember, Donovan goes way back with Gattis; he was his boss at Vandy and PSU. And after PSU do you know where John Donovan was?

Assistant to an NFL position or something right?

Assistant RBs coach at Jacksonville with…wait for it…Denard Robinson.

Omigod.

Right?

That’s an impressive take.

No my take is that he’s being too obvious about it.

Well Donovan isn’t subtle. There were many times in the charting I just wrote “DONOVAN” because he was outsmarting himself into uncharted or not recently charted territory.

I’m not saying I can read Donovan’s mind, but if I was writing a fictional OC who had just seen his team’s defense paved by inside runs and thought “I want to have one of those drives too—let’s run dives from the wishbone all the way down the field!” it would not have been any different than the Bone Drive. Unlike Jimmy Lake, however, Mike Macdonald took steps to stop it in its tracks.

This is a goal line defense at the 24 yard line. You heard me.

That has to be a Since-WWII Michigan Stadium record* for field position where a coach is willing to run into a goal line defense on 1st and 10 when not in the lead.

The main feature of Donovan offenses is he wants to go under center and bring material back into the box. Harbaugh/Gattis did a lot of heavy boxes too, because it forces safeties and safety-like linebackers out of their comfort zones, and adds more gaps they can attack. Donovan’s opening attack for Michigan was to go unbalanced I-form (meaning the TE in the box is covered and not an eligible receiver). After taking a delay of game (crowd+1) he did the same thing. Michigan took the invitation to blitz some safeties who no longer had to worry about covering anyone on that side.

The max protection I understood some because once again John Donovan’s in charge of an offense with a terrible offensive line. I mean, he put the 6’8” tackle at guard, and the 6’3” guard at tackle, and the 6’5” guard at center, and has something to do with the coaching of the All-Pac 12 left tackle who proved far more pliable than his MAC counterparts. But when you run a lot of two-man routes you need a plan better than “wait around and see if one of them comes open.”

That’s one read. It’s well covered (by Green). By the time Morris can come to the other guy his leverage is gone because the deep safety is there. Everybody else has nothing better to do than pressure the quarterback. Who drew this up?

Donovan also came out with a concept called “Huddle tempo” where they huddle then run to the line real quick.

The practice time for that resulted in nothing until Michigan learned it could use the time to change and got caught not set a couple of times.

And then there was running on 4th and 4 when they hadn’t been able to run all day. But wait, it’s so much worse! This drive is in Michigan territory because they caught Dax on play-action a moment ago. On 3rd down they run a zone read, Michigan has both safeties blitzing, and it’s swallowed.

Then they come out the next play, 4th down and 4, and not only do they run the same play: they wait until the clock is about hit zero and the defense can all time the snap perfectly, and this time just decide not to block Aidan Hutchinson.

That is some coordinatin’ right there. It also did not end there. Washington’s first drive after Michigan went up 17-0 was a Forrest Gump Special, a steady diet of split zone and PA off it that M had downloaded but kept getting yards from sheer dumb luck. It also burned 10 minutes of clock for a field goal and took Michigan from 95% to win to 95.8% to win on the ESPN probability tracker.

* [Previous record set in 1971 down 7-3 with 2:20 left in the game, but that was at the 20.]

So why was the RPS number so close, smartypants?

I thought Macdonald was taking a bunch of calculated risks (eg the 8-man blitz above), and got caught in a few of them. The one big play he got hit on was when he went zero coverage and left Rod Moore alone on a fade.

Moore played it well enough that I think he could break up that play most of the time. Take that play out however and the RPS wins for Washington were minor ones, so minor that half the time the plays came out negative (sometimes significantly so) for the offense anyways.

On the other hand, Donovan’s bungles and Macdonald’s good gambles paid off in huge point swings. I have Michigan for 6.69 points generated from RPS win plays and it would have been over eight if not for the lucky Bone drive reversing a couple of those RPS wins into first downs.

Were you able to learn any new things about the Macdonald defense?

They broke out more of their 5-1 nickel that works because Aidan Hutchinson Ba Gawd but this time it was just as a passing downs exotic. One theme that’s been popping up though is that Macdonald is asking players to be things they’re not, which is usually “A linebacker.” That includes Aidan Hutchinson—the surprise when he’s backing out is sort of valuable because they’ve committed so much material to him, but he’s just there in coverage, not able to cover a gap, so the pass rush has to pay off.

Jaylen Harrell was the most linebackerish of the OLBs, but he was still at his best playing defensive end outside of a TE:

Harrell also hung in admirably (and handsily) when tasked with covering Washington’s Jake Butt-like tight end.

On the other hand, they’re still struggling to get their regular linebackers to spot drop properly, and asking a DE to do it right is a role too far in Year 1. This slant on Vincent Gray was supposed to be have help, but Harrell, who isn’t threatening pass rush at all, doesn’t know where his zone is.

#32 bottom linebacker between the hashes

They’ll try to match personnel, and Mike Morris gives them some flexibility on that, but what happened a few times is they would get caught in their “3-4” (read: 5-2) personnel, then Washington would flex out their tight ends and put guys out of their comfort zones.

The point of this defense is to take those gambles, but select them, so if you throw a slant you never know whom might be dropping into it, nor where the pressure is coming from.

Did I just see a four-hundred pound man wearing #3 power lifting the Washington center?

Oh yeah.

Did this happen…like a lot?

Yes but I want you to take this in context some of Washington’s players were really ba—

CHART!

Defensive Line
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Smith	16	2	+14	Um...what?
Hinton	14	4	+10	Huuunnhhh?
Jeter	5	2	+3	That's more like it.
Speight	1.5		+1.5	Got in a few snaps late. Effective, not explosive.
Jenkins	2	4	-2	Did some good things, still small for doubles duty.
Welschof			0	DNC
Whittley	2.5	1	+1.5	As advertised. Glorious that he wears #3.
Hutchinson	16.5	2	+14.5	No friggin way this equals that?
Ojabo	2		+2	Passing downs only.
Upshaw	5	2	+3	Pure DE, which limits him in this defense.
Morris	3.5	2	+1.5	Made one mistake, also started.
Harrell	4	2	+2	Reverse of Upshaw. Plays some LB, not a master at either.
McGregor	2		+2	All on the last drive. Feels like a guy who could rise next year.
Newburg			0	DNP
TOTAL	74	21	+53	I think Drain was right about their OL.
Linebacker
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Ross	17.5	6	+11.5	Like him better when he's aggressive like this.
Hill-Green	6.5		+6.5	No negatives? No waaaaaay.
Colson	6	9	-3	Awesome when pointed in the right direction. Got pulled.
Mullings			0	DNC
Barrett			0	DNP
TOTAL	30	15	15	If only every offense was this easy to read.
Secondary
Player	+	-	T	Notes
Hill	7	6	+1	Results-based charting. Missed tackles, coverage gambles.
Hawkins	9.5	1	+8.5	UW TEs were more his speed, got to shoot unblocked gaps on RPS wins.
Moten	1	3	-2	Mostly ranged high. Blamed him for the one big cov bust.
Paige			0	DNC
Kolesar			0	Returns only.
Moore	2	4	-2	Maximally punished debut, almost pick-six at the end.
Gem.Green	10		+10	Grading +s for being there. Might need to finish better?
Gray	5	5	0	Even day feels right. PBU'd a crossing route to Giles tho.
Turner	4	4	0	A -3 for unnecessary roughness, otherwise solid day.
TOTAL	19	9	+10	Real enough that there were coverage sacks.
Metrics
Pressure	30	8	+22	Husky OL bad, Hutchinson good.
Coverage	31	23	+8	Like LBs, if only every offense was so uncomplicated.
Tackling	8	11	-3	Stopped trying to single-tackle the RB and it was fine.
RPS	18	14	+4	Macdonald was riverboat gambling, Donovan did...things.

Last week you couldn’t be bothered to give the DTs any scores, and this week they’re all Aidan Hutchinsons?

CONTEXT. Alex Drain’s assessment in Fee Fi Foe Film last week was that the Washington OL was pretty butt, and their left guard was particularly butt. I would throw their center in there too. This was a significant downgrade from WMU and that was more true for the DTs than the OLBs. Here’s the canonical example from this game, a sack near the end of the 1st half. Watch Aidan Hutchinson (DE at the bottom of the line) first, then Mazi Smith, the DT one spot above him, on your next watchthrough.

Hutchinson Jaxson Kirkland in a blender. That guy wasn’t as good as “certain NFL prospect” suggested he would be, but it’s not like he’s a total scrub. Smith did the same thing to #77, the left guard. At no point does it feel like that guy is providing the kind of resistance your fan brain expects from an offensive lineman.

Hutchinson was also working against both of these guys:

And was having regular success at it:

They finally got him late by triple-teaming him. By that point you’ve played yourself, especially if the guy you’re supposed to triple backs into coverage while Josh Ross is screaming up the gut.

On the inside, the tackles just kept picking up +1s because Washington was running straight at them with linemen who couldn’t move them. Here’s Hinton taking a turn:

#15 DT second guy from the bottom on the line

When they played WMU that pile was bending until a linebacker used himself up by slamming into one of the two guys providing the double. When they played Washington the linebackers were allowed to flow where they wanted to more or less freely, and safeties who got involved rarely ate a block for it. Until we learn otherwise I’m going to assume that the DTs are more the guys we saw against the Broncos than they Huskies. NIU’s line won’t tell us much.

That’s the starters at least. Jenkins got in a bunch but when he got doubled he was moved. Whittley had a few plays here and there and looked like a big dude who will not be moved; as you saw on the Harrell Covering a TE clip above, Whittley as a push rusher is just a timebomb.

Why did they keep getting 7-yard gains to the TE when it looked like our pass rush was getting home?

This was frustrating on the drive after Corum’s TD, especially because the DL were starting to really whip up on Washington’s OL. Here’s a quick out that wasted a Mazi Smith +2 against the very bad center.

Welcome to Cover 3, the one coverage I know anythi