Another season, another QB battle. With the departure of Joe Milton from the program — the third Michigan quarterback to transfer in three years — the biggest headlines out of the Wolverines’ fall camp will almost certainly pertain to whether Cade McNamara or true freshman J.J. McCarthy will start under center on September 4. Many people much smarter than me will spend the next few months pontificating on how Harbaugh values experience and will start McNamara, or how he’ll definitely start McCarthy because he can’t afford to lose his latest blue-chip quarterback to the portal, or how it won’t matter anyway if Sherrone Moore can’t get the offensive line up to snuff. 

This post isn’t about that. I won’t be able to tell you anything about the QB battle that you don’t already know, and frankly, that discussion tends to get old after a while. Instead, I want to talk about how the “other” quarterbacks — Dan Villari and Texas Tech transfer Alan Bowman — fit into the equation, and what the things we’ve heard about them mean entering fall camp. The tl;dr on this is that, barring a tragic offensive line that leads to catastrophic injuries, bizarre mismanagement of players from Harbaugh and co., or a gross misevaluation of talent on my part (highly likely!), Villari and Bowman shouldn’t see much time under center in 2021.

Dan Villari

I … didn’t expect to have to write this part. Let’s be honest here — Villari is a former 3-star redshirt freshman from New York, in a quarterback room with two much more experienced players and the fanbase-anointed savior of the program. His next best scholarship offer was from Buffalo. In most football programs, he would be slotted as a reserve quarterback, and that would be the end of the conversation. 

On Jon Jansen’s podcast, Harbaugh decided to keep talking:

(Villari) was good (in the spring). Really effective. Excited about Dan. We are looking at Dan in multiple ways. Throw out the name Taysom Hill and we are going to try to do some things like that with Dan Villari as a quarterback/athlete that can really help our team. A lot to like about Dan Villari.

I’ve defended Harbaugh during this offseason, and will continue to do so if the program makes reasonable progress in the fall. But like, don’t do that. Please. 

It’s entirely possible, of course, that Harbaugh’s just spewing nonsense, either as a smokescreen or because he likes to talk. In the past, he has answered questions about who’s impressed in practice by just listing everyone on the roster. 

I don’t think it’s that, for two reasons. First, there’s a big difference between saying “Dan Villari has been solid” and giving a specific way that they plan to use him. The fact that Harbaugh specifically name-dropped Taysom Hill indicates that this is something he’s thought about and probably seen in practice. Second, this coaching staff has not been one to shy away from gadget plays in the past (see: wildcat formation, 2-QB package, etc.). 

That second point is also why I’m so against this idea. There are situations where wildcat packages and other creative looks can be effective — like when the offense is struggling to find a rhythm against a tough defense and you put in a freak athlete to hopefully provide a spark. A red-zone second-and-five run with Hassan Haskins against Michigan State checks none of those boxes. Nor did the third-and-four jump pass that came immediately after. It reflects a tendency from the offensive coaching staff to overthink everything instead of just sticking to what works (perhaps a bit ironically, part of Don Brown’s demise was his insistence on sticking to what didn’t work).

[After the JUMP: To be fair. To be faaaair. To be fair!]

To be fair, if Villari is as athletic as Harbaugh seems to think he is, then there absolutely could be some ways to integrate him into the offense. At 6-foot-4, 227 pounds, there’s definitely an argument for finding a spot for him in short-yardage situations (assuming he has some reps carrying the ball and isn’t a fumble risk), or maybe even trying him out as a tight end if he can gain a few more pounds. 

But especially considering the offensive coaching staff’s tendency to go big-brain in key situations, that doesn’t sound like the role they have planned for Villari. If you asked me if they’ll actually implement the Taysom Hill plan much this season, I’d say probably not. But the fact that Harbaugh’s thinking about it enough that he mentioned it on Jansen’s podcast means it's worth considering. 

Alan Bowman

I’m gonna start this section with what I’m sure you’ve all come here to read: a lesson on macroeconomic theory (no, this won’t be the last time I do this; yes, I promise it does lead somewhere). Let’s start with a definition: the concept of human capital refers to the total accumulation of skills and knowledge embodied by a worker, developed over time through education, on-the-job training, and the broader knowledge of a field that comes through experience. In the heartlessly pragmatic world of economic modelling, a laborer’s worth is captured entirely in the human capital they accumulate; they are merely a body for the skills they possess. 

A worker’s level of human capital may also be different depending on which firm employs them. Broadly speaking, human capital is obtained through two types of training: general and job-specific. Workers with high amounts of general training — such as a graduate degree or experience with a widely used programming language — will carry more human capital to a new job, while workers with more job-specific training will not. Generally speaking, human capital is most efficiently allocated when there are low mobility costs — that is, when it’s easy to switch jobs — because that allows workers to self-select positions that best match their situation and abilities. 

The advent of the transfer portal has finally brought college football closer to efficiently allocating human capital. In the last few years especially, we’ve seen a number of players find their perfect match in the portal, from Kyler Murray and Baker Mayfield at Oklahoma, to Joe Burrow at LSU, to Justin Fields at Ohio State. They all gathered information from suitors and self-selected the landing spot best fit their abilities. 

Still, some might argue that those are extraordinary outliers, and that just as many players have gone in and out of the portal and ended up no better off (see: Tate Martell). I would counter, though, that just as impactful as the portal’s shuffling of star players is the opportunity for non-stars to find a better home. That’s where I see Bowman’s transfer fitting into the equation. Michigan went to the portal in search of quarterback depth; Bowman wanted a fresh start at a program that’s more competitive than Texas Tech. It makes sense. 

Bowman also brings with him quarterbacking experience — human capital! — that adds to his value in a depth role. He has by far the most college reps in the QB room (Cade McNamara has 71 career pass attempts, while Bowman has 713), and at times even flashed some brilliance with the Red Raiders. Some fans have already latched onto his 605-yard, six-touchdown performance against Houston in 2018:

Still, it’s important to remain realistic about what Bowman’s role will be. Experience gained in a different type of offense against Big 12 defenses won’t assert itself in the same way in Ann Arbor — analogous to human capital gained through job-specific training. Realistically, Bowman was brought in because Michigan doesn’t want an injury to derail the season. If McNamara or McCarthy gets hurt, Bowman can be a reliable enough replacement.

Beyond that, he can add a little more competition to the QB room and maybe even help mentor McCarthy early on, but don’t expect much more than that. That’s the reality of the situation; more likely than not, Michigan’s “other” quarterbacks will remain just that — other. They’ll be there to make competition a bit more intense in fall camp, and they might even take the occasional snap in a gadget play or after an injury, but I wouldn’t expect them to factor into any conversations beyond that.