Somehow Michigan just won a big recruiting battle over Ohio State before we even knew it was happening. Were you watching the delayed SWAC season this spring? Remember the big receiver on Deion Sanders’ team who was taking the top off of SWAC defenses? That guy. Baldwin entered the portal at the beginning of the month and started going on workouts. Ohio State offered last week. Michigan offered last Friday. Penn State was rummaging around in the drawer where they’re certain they keep the offers($), and the former Farmington, Waterford Mott, and Morgan State product decided to come home. He’s a grad transfer with two years to play. And it looks like he can play.

SIZE & RECRUITING RANKINGS

24/7 gave him a transfer rating of 88, which has Baldwin the current #5 wide receiver in the portal, two spots behind the Ohio State transfer to Bama, and one spot above the Ohio State transfer to Mizzou. Before that 24/7 had a page and a reference to a good day at the rising stars camp in 2016, but Baldwin was an unranked 6-3 cornerback when they left it in 2017, which was the same year Donovan Peoples-Jones committed.

As for size, his Jackson State roster page says he was up to 6-3/210 this spring. This video claims he’s 6-4/210:

“It’s 220 on the dash I just left the helicopter” ~ @ceobig30 pic.twitter.com/mYAk3sR4g9

— Deuce2️⃣ (@DaylenBaldwin10) May 11, 2021

Sam Webb has “in-state sources” who put it at 6-2/213.

We’ll have to use the awards instead. He was 1st team all-SWAC, the conference’s Newcomer of the Year, and a finalist for the Conerly Trophy for the best player in the state of Mississippi, spring edition. His previous transfer in 2019 didn’t register in the rankings.

SCOUTING

We’re all kind of making it up as we see it. Here’s Dan Hope, the recruiting kid for Eleven Warriors:

Baldwin was the Southwestern Athletic Conference's leading receiver this spring with 540 yards and seven touchdowns on 27 catches in just six games. At 6-foot-3 and 210 pounds, the Southfield, Michigan native demonstrated plenty of speed and downfield playmaking ability in his lone playing season at Jackson State after transferring from Morgan State.

24/7 national analyst Clint Brewster described an FCS version of THROW IT TO Nico Collins:

He's a strong receiver with outside vertical speed that can catch passes through contact. He consistently wins over the top and produced at a high-level last season. He's got excellent condensed area skills in the red zone with the ability to run the entire route tree. Baldwin plays with great toughness and desire to catch the ball over the middle and provide solid yards after the catch. He should immediately upgrade the wide receiver room at Michigan.

…with Chris Hummer adding “He’s the kind of presence who can change a game in an instant.”

Chris Fahr was Baldwin’s coach at Waterford Mott in 2016 and recalled a guy with the right attitude for Michigan football to Rivals’ Chris Balas:

“I don’t know if you’d say he’s a late bloomer, but he’s one of the hardest working kids I’ve ever been around,” Fahr reported. “Even when things didn’t go his way, whatever happened — good, bad or in between — he always kept working.  …

"That goes back to his whole story. Even if things might not go his way in the beginning, he’ll stay on track and keep going. He very rarely had bad days. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen him wake up on the wrong side of the bed … great smile, always happy to be coming to football, to be doing football stuff.”

Fahr added Baldwin has “very good hands” and is a “willing blocker.”

Baldwin’s own explanation for why he’s popping so late in his career is his body took longer than most athletes’:

"I was just a late bloomer," Baldwin said. "Just late, it took me a little bit longer to develop. That's what I think it was. I did alright when I was at camps, I was just undeveloped at that time so I feel like nobody was willing to take that chance on me."

He also told Sam he’s got two years of eligibility “but I could play one if I really want to.”

[Hit THE JUMP for offers, video, a greaseburger opinion and a mini-UFR.]

OFFERS

Ohio State’s offer was serious according to Eleven Warriors, and came before Michigan’s. Baldwin made no secret about looking for a place he could play immediately:

"The feedback was good. Coach (Brian) Hartline had told me he can tell I actually work on my craft. They were telling me you can definitely be here, be part of the team, but the biggest thing for me making sure I'm actually on the field, making sure I'm playing wherever I'm at.”

Sam Webb shared this was a big enough deal that Central Michigan might have been ahead of OSU. Morgan State was his only D-I offer out of high school, though GVSU offered a partial.

PREVIOUS SCHOOLS

Jackson State is one of the great American HBCUs, and the SWAC school that Deion Sanders is coaching. It’s a good school, and Sanders is attracting a lot of talent there, much of it from the portal. It’s not like you can create a pipeline from somebody else’s D-I program, but it would be wise of Michigan to pay attention to this program for more players looking to move up.

Baldwin transferred previously from Morgan State, where he played in 2017 and 2018, but did not register on the transfer rankings and sat out the 2019 season. Waterford Mott is up by the lakes between Telegraph and M-59 on Pontiac Lake Road—basically if you go past West Bloomfield High and Orchard Lake St Mary’s then keep going north when Orchard Lake Rd angles off toward Pontiac, you’ll end up at Mott. Farmington High, not to be confused with Harrison, which closed, is on the far opposite end of Orchard Lake Road. It’s pretty close to Greene’s, the local greaseburger joint that’s superior to Sonny’s or Hunter House (the real one) or Telway. It’s also close to Namaste Flavours, the amazing Indian takeout that just bought Raja Rani. I’m mentioning this to say how incredible it is we managed to produce a guy who was too skinny. I mean Greene’s is right there.

STATS

Baldwin led the SWAC with 540 yards and 6 TDs on 27 catches over six games. I pulled targeting data from the play-by-play and came up with 43 targets for 12.6 yards per target. That doesn’t include a 36-yard circus catch that was called back for an illegal man downfield, nor four pass interference calls he picked up for an additional 44 yards. Baldwin’s 63% catch rate is low, but probably a reflection on the QB—the other outside receiver had a 51% catch rate and the slot had a 61%.

24/7’s Chris Hummer adds that Baldwin was seventh in the FCS in average yards after the catch, with 9.2. He adds that Ronnie Bell had eight, per PFF. Baldwin’s Morgan State page lists 16 catches for 181 yards and a TD in 2017, and 14 catches for 152 yards and a TD as a sophomore.

FAKE 40 TIME

Sam Webb’s in-state source said Baldwin ran a forty in the “high 4.4s.” We’ll call that 4.48 and give it four FAKES out of five because even if it’s reasonable it’s from an “in-state source” and I literally made up the last integer so it’s actually literally fake.

VIDEO

PREDICTION BASED ON FLIMSY EVIDENCE

Well he looks like a Big Ten receiver playing against SWAC competition. I managed to find the Grambling game (not the best one) to watch him last night and get a mini-UFR of his targets:

• 3rd & 8 at 6:49 1st Q: Slant, Baldwin heading to open ground behind Cov2 but ball is thrown early and right at the CB he’s trying to clear; that guy bats it down.
• 3rd & 5 at 13:47 2nd Q: +1 downfield block on a play the QB kept alive and got to his TE.
• 2nd & 7 at 9:16 3nd Q: The TD. +1 route as he stops on a short curl before the ball’s even out, then has to adjust because the ball isn’t out.
  
  Orbits as the ball is coming to catch it on the run, Grambling corner whiffs, and Baldwin+3 jets past a deep safety.
• 1st & 10 at 5:46 2nd Q: Doesn’t finish his RPO slant so he’s outside and can’t help but turns back upfield(-2) for that guy instead of hunting a safety. QB runs over the CB so it’s relevant.
• 2nd & 5 at 5:07 2nd Q: Picks off a safety(+1) as his RB breaks one.
• 1st & 10 at 8:25 3rd Q: Another curl under this soft CB, ball is out on time but high and Baldwin realized it too late. Filing as an IN on the QB.
• 3rd & 2 at 7:43 3rd Q: Bubble screen and Baldwin(+1) erases the DB.
• 3rd & 9 at 6:44 3rd Q: CB is playing soft, Baldwin(+route) gets past the sticks so a hunting safety can’t help, makes the catch for a 1st down. They short him two yards for this.
• 1st & 10 at 6:12 3rd Q: Doesn’t block in the back so he’s there(+1) when RB cuts outside him, then hits a safety too to help turn this into a first down.
• 1st & 10 at 12:44 4th Q: Double Bubble and he erases(+2) the edge so his slot can dust a safety and score.

So, yeah, +8/-2 for a receiver, most of that blocking, in his Jackson State career. I’ll take this.

The highlight reel also has a one-handed catch with a cornerback three yards behind who ends up more yards behind half a second later, and a one-handed endzone fade with a cornerback all over him.

Competition caveats aside, I see what we were hoping Cornelius Johnson would look like this fall. Since Cornelius Johnson is the only receiver on the roster listed over 200 pounds, and freshman receivers suck, I expect Baldwin to immediately compete with Johnson and Roman Wilson for the outside spot opposite Ronnie Bell. Given everyone else on the roster is a dedicated slot or true freshman, figure Baldwin is at least getting a lot of run as the first receiver off the bench. His blocking might be a SWAC mirage, but it could also be his most underrated trait, and quite valuable in a Michigan offense that’s been stockpiling slippery speedsters.

UPSHOT FOR THE REST OF THE CLASS

This doesn’t make losing Xavier Worthy okay, but it does essentially fill that spot on the depth chart this year and perhaps next. It won’t affect the 2022 class.