We were busy recording a live podcast while the selection show was going on and then the Big Ten hockey quarterfinals started soon after, so I apologize for belatedly posting this news you probably know by now. The NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament bracket is out and Michigan took the final one-seed to stand atop the "East region" (the entire tourney is in the Indianapolis area).
The Wolverines await the winner of Thursday's play-in game between 16-seeds Mount St. Mary's and Texas Southern; they'll face whichever team moves into the field of 64 on Saturday. Barring a catastrophe, they'll take on the winner of the 8/9 game between LSU and St. Bonaventure on Monday. Yes, the tournament weekend is Friday-Monday instead of Thursday-Sunday this year. Yes, it's weird and unsettling.
Anyway, here is Michigan's region:
This is, on the whole, a pretty good draw. The 8/9 matchup doesn't contain any of the potential worst-case scenarios, particularly an underseeded Loyola-Chicago team, which ended up as the 8-seed in the Midwest region headlined by one-seed Illinois. Florida State is a solid four-seed but their defense isn't top-tier and their size won't bother Hunter Dickinson. Colorado took great advantage of playing home games at altitude and hasn't been the same team away from Boulder.
On the other side of the region, Alabama is an interesting potential matchup with their up-tempo, threes-or-layups-only approach, though it's their elite defense that's been propping up a merely solid offense. They get a potentially brutal second-round matchup with a UConn squad that's been great when star James Bouknight is healthy. Texas, the #26 team on KenPom, is arguably the weakest three-seed.
Michigan, of course, needs to figure out how they'll manage without Isaiah Livers. If they do—and they're certainly capable—then there's a foreseeable path to Juwan Howard's program making a Final Four run.
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Hotel Putingrad
March 14th, 2021 at 9:59 PM ^
LSU is gonna be trouble.
Joined: 12/10/2014
MGoPoints: 117662
outsidethebox
March 14th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
High ceiling...very low floor. This applies to many teams in Michigan's bracket. A cursory assessment would seem to say that this is a good draw for the good guys.
Joined: 01/23/2017
MGoPoints: 7113
lilpenny1316
March 14th, 2021 at 10:20 PM ^
LSU has to win the tricky 8/9 game. Other than that, this feels like the easiest bracket.
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 40880
Hail to the Vi…
March 14th, 2021 at 10:40 PM ^
LSU can score and they are athletic for sure. It's by no means an "easy" matchup, but there are more difficult 1/8 potential matchups in the round of 32.
Joined: 09/13/2010
MGoPoints: 4504
KBLOW
March 14th, 2021 at 10:47 PM ^
Only if they hit 3s like crazy, but any team doing that would be trouble. Did you see them play today and yesterday? No defensive discipline at all. No transition D. Lazy passing. Horrible ball security. They're a free pile Maryland.
Joined: 06/30/2008
MGoPoints: 11772
Michigan4Life
March 14th, 2021 at 11:04 PM ^
LSU defense is bad. Worse than Iowa and OSU. Michigan should be able to score against them. LSU is a middling team that Michigan has been able to handle all year long.
Joined: 07/29/2010
MGoPoints: 21392
bronxblue
March 14th, 2021 at 11:08 PM ^
Every 8/9 team is tricky for #1 seeds, but I'd rather have a worse version of Iowa in LSU (top-5 offense, top-125 defense) than a team like UNC or Loyola, two teams that feel a bit underseeded. And for all of LSU's offensive potential this year, they struggled scoring against the better defenses they saw all year. Could they get hot and catch UM in a bad offensive slump? Sure. But it's just as likely they find a way to stymie their offense while abusing them on defense. And that's assuming LSU even beats St. Bonaventure, which is actually ranked higher than LSU on KenPom has a top-40 offense plus a top-20 defense.
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 93977
TheCube
March 14th, 2021 at 11:21 PM ^
I had to do a double-take, but I figure being 125th in the country on defense while playing in a relatively weaker SEC conference has to surely give Michigan a massive advantage over LSU if they were to play one another?
Joined: 12/19/2018
MGoPoints: 12872
Monocle Smile
March 14th, 2021 at 11:44 PM ^
SEC sucks balls this year, so take their good performances with a grain of salt. Same with Alabama.
Joined: 09/17/2009
MGoPoints: 14487
jdraman
March 14th, 2021 at 11:55 PM ^
The LSU draw has really spooked Michigan fans. Huh. This is a team that is ranked 125th in AdjDE in the country! They give up 0.996 pts/possession. That's abysmal defense! Even without Livers Michigan should be able to win that game. Michigan could still lose that game, but I just don't understand the irrational panic about this draw.
Joined: 10/23/2019
MGoPoints: 4131
JWG Wolverine
March 14th, 2021 at 10:00 PM ^
I like.
Joined: 01/07/2017
MGoPoints: 12658
Vote_Crisler_1937
March 14th, 2021 at 10:07 PM ^
“Florida State’s size won’t bother Dickinson” and “Colorado hasn’t been the same team away from Boulder”. I read that on this blog and all I can think is:
“Michigan State’s offensive line is injured, low ranked, and a turnstile at left tackle.”
I’m sure I’m just losing perspective cuz man, I don’t know anymore.
Joined: 11/07/2011
MGoPoints: 5062
snarling wolverine
March 14th, 2021 at 10:56 PM ^
Huh, I didn't realize the two sports teams' seasons had paralleled and that Michigan football was the Big Ten champ. Somehow I missed that entirely.
Joined: 12/14/2011
MGoPoints: 55838
bronxblue
March 14th, 2021 at 11:12 PM ^
Well, they also said that Milton brought a new dynamic level to the ground game and flashed the potential to be a truly disruptive player on the run and in the air. So perhaps we should mind-wipe ourselves of 2020 football.
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 93977
Jordan2323
March 14th, 2021 at 10:12 PM ^
I don’t see how FSU’s size won’t bother Dickinson. They have a guy who is 7’1 as well and he’s pretty good. Their length is crazy all across the floor. Guards that are 6’8 and 230+ pounds. They also play a ton of players so fatigue won’t be an issue. What I see them doing is doubling down on Hunter all game long because they will have the size to do so. Our guards will be at a tremendous disadvantage size wise. I think this will be a very tough sweet 16 matchup should we make it there.
Joined: 11/09/2013
MGoPoints: 14660
bronxblue
March 14th, 2021 at 11:21 PM ^
I agree they're very tall but they also have the 48th-best defense per KenPom and despite having a top-10 block rate they also give up almost 32% offensive rebounds. So it's a weird team that doesn't seem to defend the perimeter all that well and relies on their Ents to stop you from shooting inside. Of course, they also foul a ton so that could be an Achilies heel for a team playing UM's very competent FT shooting.
They're a top-15 team per KenPom and I can see it, but for perspective they lost to Georgia Tech by 5 despite shooting 57% from 3 (while GT shot 21%) because they gave the Yellow Jackets 14 more FTs. It feels like a team UM can plan for.
Joined: 11/22/2008
MGoPoints: 93977
lilpenny1316
March 14th, 2021 at 10:23 PM ^
I remember taking a flier on Terrance Williams in thread picking someone to surprise in the tournament. I sure hope it comes to fruition. All we can ask for is solid D and don't make it 4 on 5 when we have the ball.
Joined: 11/19/2009
MGoPoints: 40880
DennisFranklinDaMan
March 14th, 2021 at 10:27 PM ^
I can't see us having a real chance to win it all without Livers (barring some very helpful upsets ahead of us, of course), but we had a last second shot to beat a second seed in the tournament without him. We're certainly able to *play* with anyone (except, maybe, the other No.1 seeds) without him. Dickinson has to be able to get down low, instead of being repeatedly pushed 10 feet away from the basket. If he can get there, and either score or force double-teams ... our offense should be fine.
Joined: 01/23/2021
MGoPoints: 119
rice4114
March 14th, 2021 at 10:48 PM ^
Damn if I didnt know we were going to be playing FSU.
Joined: 08/26/2010
MGoPoints: 11399
Blue Vet
March 14th, 2021 at 11:20 PM ^
It's gonna be an interesting week of anticipation.
Joined: 05/08/2012
MGoPoints: 15105
RAH
March 14th, 2021 at 11:24 PM ^
Kind of off the wall but...
There is a significant chance that, in order to get to the Final Four, Baylor will have to beat:
Wisconsin, Purdue, & Ohio State
And if Michigan and Gonzaga had been placed in each other's #1 slots, there is a significant chance that Baylor, in order to win the championship, would have had to beat (in order):
Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State, Michigan/Iowa, & Illinois.
Joined: 02/23/2018
MGoPoints: 1526
SoccerDancer