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This Week's Obsession: Early Hoops Takes

This Week's Obsession: Early Hoops Takes Seth November 30th, 2020 at 3:23 PM
Too soon to dance? [Marc-Gregor Campredon]

LET’S RUN THROUGH THE ROTATION. WHAT ARE YOUR EARLY IMPRESSIONS OF PLAYER X THROUGH TWO GAMES?

Brian: I miss player X. Or Z, whatever.

Ace: Missed him a little more after Sunday’s game, too.

Anyway!

ISAIAH LIVERS

Having a real good time. [Campredon]

Matt EM: Looks to be healthy, moving better than last year, particularly on the defensive end.

Brian: Seems like the same guy, more or less, as the healthy version but is statistically off the charts right now.

I don't think that PNR snake is really going to be a thing long-term.

Seth: I'd love to know which American Choppers meme he and Juwan were reenacting.

Ace: Yeah, that was very exciting and then he lost his handle not long thereafter for a turnover. Still, incredible shooter to have on the team, and he’s come up with some huge defensive plays. Two recoveries for blocks against Oakland that they needed badly.

Brian: Has had a few of those out of position on-ball blocks that indicate he's back to be a really good defender.

Ace: Jinx.

Matt EM: If he caps out as a 40% shooter from distance with the ability to defend 2-3 positions, that will do it for me.

Ace: That almost feels like his floor when he’s healthy.

Brian: Has gone from 21% of shots while on court to 27%, would love to see that stick.

Ace: Since people are still talking about it: I liked seeing him pissed off when the team was playing like ass against Oakland. I’d have been more worried if he wasn’t pissed off.

[Hit THE JUMP for snapshots and shots]

FRANZ WAGNER

Gonna make this happen. [Campredon]

Ace: I might be sneaking him in here to get this over with for now.

Matt EM: One word: disruptive.

Seth: Six open three attempts, zero made threes. Definitely time to panic.

Matt EM: He hasn't got it going yet on offense, but the improved lateral agility + length likely makes him one of the 5 best wing defenders in the B10.

Brian: I think it would really help him if he started cutting like Livers, especially if Dickinson is on the floor a lot. He's a huge target and Dickinson is an A+ passer. On ball offense obviously not where we wanted it to be, but just one game against a man to man defense--he's never going to be the kind of guy to dribble penetrate against a zone efficiently.

Ace: The two-point percentage is good but mostly coming off the same rip-and-go stuff he did last year. He hasn’t been the pick-and-roll creator I was certainly hoping/expecting he’d become this year, and that five-turnover Oakland outing was rough. That said, he’s going to come around at some point. As Brian said, Dickinson really opens up the offense as a creator and he should be able to play off of that.

Matt EM: He's at his best offensively when he can get the ball on the move. The lack of vision + change of direction may limit him to more of a secondary option in the offense.

Ace: Playing a heavy zone team in game two makes some of this early evaluation difficult.

Brian: It has been fun to see him get matched up against guards and watch those guards go "what the hell am I supposed to do with the frickin' kraken?"

Matt EM: I'm with Brian in that I think Franz may be better utilized getting the ball in the elbows or post-ups vs smaller players

Brian: That duck-in against BGSU looked impossible to stop.

Seth: I was being sarcastic re: shooting but there were a couple of those against Oakland which made me wonder if growing a couple more inches in the last year has messed with his shot.

Brian: Radical muscle gain may also make it difficult to judge distance, but I'm concerned.

Ace: I’m holding off on concern for now. His shots aren’t missing by much. Michigan’s misses and Oakland’s misses from deep looked very, very different.

ELI BROOKS

Our concern dude. [Campredon]

Ace: This is the player I’m most concerned about from the Oakland game. Brooks kept throwing lazy passes directly to defenders.

Brian: Hummel was all over the lack of ball fakes from him and others, but mostly him.

Seth: If Michigan's got an unsolveable problem this year it's that neither Smith nor Brooks is a complete point guard. In Eli's case he doesn't seem to see the court well enough to be the creator.

Matt EM: Solid second option to Smith as shot-creator in ballscreen action, his lack of agility + size has hindered him on the defensive end in particular.

Ace: Which is particularly worrisome for Brooks because his key to staying in the starting lineup is defense.

He’s been good enough on that end throughout his career that I expect he’ll bounce back as a defender but that might not keep him in the best five.

Matt EM: He's a "try-hard" guy that is superb at applying backside pressure in PnR, but can struggle in isolation. The first two opponents have recognized that and I'd expect that to be more common moving forward.

Brian: We should do Dickinson next because my take on so many of Michigan's players is they need Dickinson to create shots and allow them to thrive off ball and after rotations.

Brooks is foremost among them.

HUNTER DICKINSON

Humans are so puny. [Campredon]

Brian: Ethan Happ offense ho.

Ace: Hello.

Matt EM: Magic Dickinson!

Ace: Is there some noise in there? Perhaps. Is Dickinson clearly the best center Michigan has had in a while? Yup.

Seth: Everything you people taught me about freshman bigs is wrong and I can't trust you anymore.

Ace: I’m not saying he’s already better than junior Teske but he might get there by the end of his freshman year.

Brian: I mean, he is 20 already. Beard game on point. At least the 1B focal hub of offense.Ace: As we mentioned on the pod, he’s slimmed down from high school and looks more athletic.

Matt EM: Don't think there's any question he should be the primary option in half-court sets. Can consistently create for himself and others.

Seth: Is it possible that we're overrating two games against teams that have nobody within five inches of him?

Ace: That passing ability is largely opponent-independent. He’s also 7'2, those won’t be the only teams with size issues against him.

Matt EM: Agreed - the finishing is something that my change with the opponent.

Brian: Yeah the negative scenario for Dickinson is that Kofi Cockburn can handle him 1v1 and his passing is largely moot.

Seth: It's just...I watch Michigan sports (for a living! life choices!) so I'm waiting for the other shoe to drop here.

Ace: Can we keep the football stuff out of the basketball stuff? We’re going on a full decade of the basketball team being a huge bright spot.

Brian: I'm not sure there are many great post defenders in the league this year. Watkins, Sticks, Tillman, Haarms, Wesson: all gone. Garza: Garza. You've got Trayce Jackson-Davis, the Badger duo, and Cockburn.

Ace: There are going to be some ups and downs but Dickinson is the most talented post player they’ve had in a long, long time. One thing we haven’t mentioned yet is he’s got a variety of post moves already, looks to attack, and finishes with force. That’s not the case for a lot of big guys.

Matt EM: If nothing else, Dickinson sucks out the opposition's biggest player in Horns sets, basically providing spacing for guys like Johns/Franz to duck in without much resistance.

Brian: And he shoots FTs.

Ace: Yeah, that gravity is going to be there. Michigan’s looks from three have been so good when he’s on the floor.

Brian: Yeah we often dismiss 3P% on/off splits as random noise. There is some noise in Dickinson's numbers but that gap is not entirely random.

Seth: If anything it's underrating him because of the open misses.

Brian: Uh... 56% from 3 is probably not underrating his passing ability.

Ace: Yeah, people occasionally miss the open ones. He’s creating a ton of them so there’s reason to believe in the three-point uptick, just not quite that much. What an exciting player to have, though.

CHAUNDEE BROWN

Thicc Charles Matthews? [Campredon]

Matt EM: An absolute ball-hawking defender at the point of attack.

Brian: Probably shouldn't have 17 threes and 5 twos.

Seth: Speaking of unreasonable fan three-pointer expectations, he Did Not maintain a 5/7 ratio.

Matt EM: Quality looks and quality shots for the most part.

Seth: One thing I loved from the Oakland game was he made one big mistake falling of a shooter and the next possession he ended himself.

Ace: He took a very interesting path to 35% from deep but that’s pretty good overall. He’s taking good shots.

Brian: A couple of his misses against Oakland were halfway down, I think he's going to be a fine shooter. But he's been outstanding on cuts and attacking closeouts at Wake and should endeavor to recapture that (cough dickinson cough).

Matt EM: If he's able to maintain 35% while having the ability to defend 3 positions, he's going to play 30ish minutes per game.

Ace: We’re going to have a play where three wings see an opening and all bash into each other trying to get a free dunk from Dickinson.

Seth: The thing about Brown is when that happens the 6'10" wing is the one going thunk. I mean Chaundee is a strong dude.

Ace: He’s such an intriguing player. As you alluded to, he’s dense at 6'5, and yet he still moves like a much smaller player on defense.

Brian: I think the team kind of got panicked in the Oakland game so this isn't a huge concern but helping off their sniper unnecessarily points to a team that's got to get on the same page on defense.

Ace: I thought that was one bad play that helped display how solid this team has been in general on that end when they’re playing the right center. I haven’t noticed many poor on-the-fly choices like that.

Brian: They've had a number of over-helps from Dickinson leading to OREBs and then a number of straight line drives that don't draw help. Lot of pointing and late-ish perimeter switches.

Ace: I meant the wing defenders holding down the perimeter against shooters, for the most part. Dickinson’s youth is the source of some of those mistakes.

Seth: I think some of the defensive issues go back to the next guy we're going to talk about.

Ace: I believe Seth means…

MIKE SMITH

Doing unto others as they do unto ye. [Campredon]

Ace: …who’s driving a lot of play for both teams right now.

Brian: Braids lead to foul trouble. Let the flow fly young man.

Ace: In fairness, absolute bullshit foul on his fourth against Oakland, that was awful.

Matt EM: On the bright side, he's our best shot-creator in ball screen action by a wide margin.

Ace: Sample sizes and all but look at the two-point percentages on both ends.

Brian: Also the turnover rates.

Ace: Yeah.

Seth: He's every bit the offensive maestro that Simpson was plus he has a shot. But his defensive work goes beyond size limitations.

Matt EM: He had a botched switch late vs Oakland that was a head-scratcher for sure.

Ace: Defensive shortcomings established, I still believe he’s been the best option at point guard. Some of the noise in there is from foul trouble preventing him from playing with Dickinson for a lot of the Oakland game. He’s great in transition and created three great looks in the beginning of the second half by just pushing the pace like hell.

Seth: I know we're not supposed to be mentioning football, but Oakland's zone was a Mark Dantonio July Drive(TM). Michigan clearly wasn't prepared for their opponent to switch up their defense.

Brian: Yeah, and Dickinson inexplicably sat for the first nine minutes of the second half.

Ace: That was… frustrating.

Matt EM: Don't think there's any question Smith is the guy we want to have the ball. I think the bigger question is can we play both Smith + Brooks at the same time for large stretches? Or does Dickinson alleviate those issues to a certain extent?

Seth: GOTTA EARN IT FRESHMAN. [freshman earns it]. GOTTA...well dammit.

Ace: Dickinson being an ent at the rim hopefully makes Smith more playable.

Brian: I think you stagger your subs to have one of Smith or Dickinson on the court at all times, foul trouble permitting.

Ace: Having both point guards on the court at the same time feels like a waste of the wings. Also Brandon Johns.

Brian: Yeah especially since Brown and maybe Wagner can handle most twos.

BRANDON JOHNS

More time on the floor please. [Campredon]

Matt EM: His passing has been a pleasant surprise.

Ace: Finishing with confidence, too. He’s just been squeezed out of playing time more than I expected.

Seth: Foul trouble was the only reason we weren't as excited about him in the first game. I kinda want to see him pass Big Country as well.

Matt EM: He's been impressive getting the ball on the move as well. The sudden change of direction vs Oakland in transition was something he didn't appear capable of doing last season

Ace: He’s had a couple really nice rip-and-go finishes.

Brian: Yeah, I think he should get a look as the primary backup 5 in a lot of situations and then Michigan should push Brooks down to the 1 to open up some more minutes at the 4 for him.

Ace: He hasn’t had the chance to play next to Dickinson a lot yet but I could see a lot of dunks coming from that pairing. Being the primary backup at center could limit that, though.

Matt EM: Against stretch 5s/more agile bigs, Johns seems like the natural option defensively.

Ace: Yes, and they’ve played him there a decent amount when they’ve had the chance. Those lineups are switchable at least 2-5.

Seth: And Ace you mentioned the confidence thing. Keeping Johns feeling like he has god powers is the kind of long-term goal that could pay off huge dividends later in the year.

Brian: The brief switch-everything stretch against Oakland looked like it could be extremely frustrating for opponents. Iso ball against the PG is the main weak point.

Ace: It’s a very limited sample but lineups with Johns at center have given up 0.82 PPP and 33% shooting on twos.

Seth: Johns has a flair for offensive boards than nobody else on the team (so far...Williams might get there) possesses. Add that to the Dickinson lineup and it's going to be hard to get Michigan out of the offensive end.

TERRANCE WILLIAMS

Brrrrrrrrrmccchhmmmbrrrrrrrrrroooom! [Campredon]

Matt EM: Motor

Ace: He plays with juice, that’s for sure. The AAU ball connection with Dickinson is also apparent.

Brian: Jae'Sean Tate comparisons dead on so far.

Matt EM: His high-low entry passes have been very good as well.

Ace: When not thrown in at center for his first college minutes, he’s shown a nice feel for the game.

Matt EM: Feels like we're experimenting with him on defense to see where he's best utilized.

Seth: Dickinson is screwing with my freshman forwards calibration but I'm pretty sure Williams is exactly what you want a freshman to look in his first few games. Game already starting slowing down for him in the 2nd half against Oakland.

(Hit your free throws kid).

Ace: He’s still a little lost on defense and getting used to not being able to overpower everyone. That adjustment will come with time. On this team, though, he should play all his minutes at power forward.

Brian: FWIW, he was 29/35 from the line in 10 AAU games in 2018-19. So probably not a problem FT shooter. /shakes fist at lack of real high school basketball stats.

AUSTIN DAVIS

Indelicate. [Campredon]

Brian: Should have the same role he had last year: situational offensive sub.

Ace: I know everyone is down on Big Country relative to Dickinson but there’s no shame in that. He’s still a bucket down low. But, yes, his best role is 5-10 minutes with his matchup handpicked.

Matt EM: Still holds value in that you can dump the ball to him on the block and he can get a bucket

Brian: The Giorgi demolisher.

Seth: I also want him studying every foul ever called on Luka Garza (there are like four) and learning to replicate them.

ZEB JACKSON

Brian: Really wild so far, doesn't look like he's ready to chip in much this year. Has work to do defensively.

Ace: We’ve reached the fringe of the rotation and he’s clearly still getting his feet on defense but his size and bounciness are gonna be fun. I really wish Brooks had thrown a catchable lob.

Brian: Yeah throwing an oop to your nominal point guard is fun.

Seth: Ace I think you pointed out in your pod that he wasn't pulled when he shot a contested three so he's got the green light. I'm still high on him as a guy who progresses as the season does, has a game where he's a shooter off the bench, and makes a couple of plays that portend big things.

Ace: Recorded two assists against Oakland, so there might be something to look into later with him running the offense, too.

Brian: I think he's had a hesitancy to shoot open looks so far, though.

Ace: Yes, his usage is 6%. He’s moving the ball around and getting a feel for where he should be.

Brian: He definitely could have pulled the trigger on about 3 threes. Hopefully that's more uncertainty than an indicator about his shooting.

Matt EM: Love the long-term defensive potential with size/length/athleticism

Ace: Jumps high, passing vision should be a plus, ask about everything else later.

SanDiegoWolverine

November 30th, 2020 at 3:47 PM ^

Not sure what Matt is talking about RE Wagner. He had been blown by time and time again on defense. His lateral ability looks worse if anything. He's relying on his long asthma to challenge once he gets blown by.

In reply to Not sure what Matt is… by SanDiegoWolverine

Matt EM

November 30th, 2020 at 3:49 PM ^

Think I have to disagree here. Franz has been extremely impressive on the defensive end this year, both on-ball and off. Offensively, I've always been more bear-ish on Wagner in relation to others, but his defensive presence has been great IMO. 

https://twitter.com/LAbound2/status/1332385933740666881

In reply to Think I have to disagree… by Matt EM

SanDiegoWolverine

November 30th, 2020 at 4:01 PM ^

The first possession of the compilation where he blocks the shot he gets blown by first. There's some other ones that are not clipped for obvious reasons. I just don't think he can hang with most guards and you see a lot of college teams run out 3 and 4 guard lineups. Any guard who is a better finisher or can dish in traffic will give him trouble. Also, guards can slow down to draw the foul once they beat him off the dribble a la Chris Paul.

Just something to watch going forward. He does have very active hands and good defensive instincts though.

In reply to The first possession of the… by SanDiegoWolverine

Matt EM

November 30th, 2020 at 4:12 PM ^

I absolutely agree with you that an NBA level guard is going to blow-by Franz, he's not an elite athlete by any means. But reality is that college basketball is downright awful right now in terms of talent, and there just aren't many elite prospect with those abilities. He beat Justin Turner to the spot on multiple occasions and he most definitely could've gone to nearly any program in the country had he chosen to do so.

Is he going to be a wing-stopper at the NBA level, not even close. Is he going to be a top 5 wing defender in the B10, I think that's almost certain. Other than Ayo, I just don't think there are many players in the B10 that have the ability to blow-by Franz considering his lateral agility + length. Just my two cents. 

In reply to Think I have to disagree… by Matt EM

umumum

November 30th, 2020 at 5:35 PM ^

Your voluntary departure from the UMHoops Board may have been frustrating, but you will find far more understanding of Wagner's skill set over there.

In reply to Not sure what Matt is… by SanDiegoWolverine

njvictor

November 30th, 2020 at 4:19 PM ^

I agree and disagree. Franz definitely has issues staying in front of guys, like you said, but he has the length and instincts to recover and alter shots when he gets beaten. His ability to disrupt off ball and deny position is where I think he's most valuable

In reply to I agree and disagree. Franz… by njvictor

SanDiegoWolverine

November 30th, 2020 at 5:56 PM ^

Yeah, that's all I'm saying. I don't like him playing the two unless he's guarding more of a #justashooter kind of guy. But he does have long arms to make up for his mistakes.

Yinka Double Dare

November 30th, 2020 at 4:03 PM ^

Needed to lead off with Jackson so the first two main page posts were

Zeb!

Please Clap

Blue Vet

November 30th, 2020 at 4:04 PM ^

It's so nice to read a positive conversation.

Teeba

November 30th, 2020 at 4:28 PM ^

Y’all are way too down on Eli. He was +14 against Oakland in 41 minutes. That’s not just because he benefited from playing with HD. Hunter only played 25 minutes. 

Granted, he got a lot of minutes because of Smith’s foul trouble, but still, 41 minutes. In a tight game that went to OT, Eli was the one guy who Juwan kept in the game.

 I know he’s not flashy. He doesn’t look like he should be a good defender. I cringe sometimes when he’s at PG, but he and Livers are the team leaders early on.

In reply to Y’all are way too down on… by Teeba

blueboy

November 30th, 2020 at 4:48 PM ^

I agree with this, yeah he had some sloppy turnovers, but he also had some nice cuts and passes. He's definitely much better suited as a secondary ballhandler, but if we're going to end up playing through the post a lot anyways, we can get by with him at PG

In reply to Y’all are way too down on… by Teeba

Streetchemist

November 30th, 2020 at 4:51 PM ^

I agree 100% on Eli. He had a rough first half yesterday. He’s really good at running around ball screens on defense which is extremely valuable even if he isn’t great on iso D. 

He’s the only other player besides Livers I feel good about shooting a 3 right now. He needs to shoot more in my opinion. 

blueboy

November 30th, 2020 at 4:42 PM ^

I think this post undersells Livers by a bit. One subtle way in which he seems to be very much improved is that he's taking some much higher degree of difficulty 3s this year. He's still not shooting off the dribble very often, but he's shooting on the move off the catch a lot more, Duncan Robinson style.

Small sample, but he's taking 9 3PAs/40 minutes, up from 6.2 the last 2 years. 

HL2VCTRS

November 30th, 2020 at 4:45 PM ^

I think the only thing limiting Dickinson might be conditioning, and it might be why we didn’t see him right away in the 2nd half. Towards the middle of OT he looked like he was moving a little differently and might have been gassed. Right after I noticed it was when he missed the two free throws too. 
 

Perhaps in addition to getting used to the college game, Howard is trying to make sure he’s available in crunch time?  I could be way off... just something that seemed to be occurring late in the game. 



This post first appeared on Mgoblog, please read the originial post: here

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