What other sports or events would we even be discussing right now? Let's talk some hoops.

The Range of Outcomes

In your opinion - what is the floor of this team and what is the ceiling of this team?

— Brad Robinson (@BradRobinson_MI) November 1, 2020

It's hard to predict a floor for any team because of COVID, since evidently there's a chance a program can Wisconsin itself out of a large portion of the season. If we assume reasonable health, the worst-case scenario for this team involves some combination of disappointing point guard and center play, lacking a true go-to scorer, and a defensive dropoff without Xavier Simpson and Jon Teske. Add in some bad luck and I could see this program missing the NCAA Tournament in a shortened season. That all happening doesn't seem likely, but we're talking about the absolute floor here.

JUCO guard Corinthian Ramsey has committed to Nicholls State, per a source.

— Jon Rothstein (@JonRothstein) November 9, 2016

nothing will ever touch this but KenPom came close last night

I've been pleasantly surprised to see where Michigan has landed in the early computer projections. KenPom news-dumped his preseason ratings last night(!) with the Wolverines at #17, fourth in the Big Ten behind Wisconsin, Ohio State, and Michigan State. Bart Torvik's algorithm is even higher on Michigan after Chaundee Brown's transfer waiver, ranking them 11th nationally, two spots behind Wisconsin for best in the conference.

Torvik's prediction feels close to the upper bounds of this team's potential—it's tough to have top-ten confidence in a team with big questions at the two most important positions on the court. There's a chance that's underestimating how much Juwan Howard can get out of a suddenly deep squad, however. A lot hinges on Brandon Johns and/or Hunter Dickinson becoming a high-level center option; if the pieces fall into place around that, this is a team that could make a deep 2018-like tournament run because of their combination of talent, experience, coaching, and lineup flexibility.

[Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the mailbag.]

Who's The Man?

Who is the guy doing the most electrifying plays this year? The guy pumping up the team? #mgomailbag

And if Livers gets a half court shot at the buzzer, and the ball leaves his hand at 15 mph, is Harbaugh fired by the time the ball goes through the net?

— Red Lee (@BDJargon) November 1, 2020

First off, I'm not taking that bait, and I was never good at math or physics anyway.

I don't see anyone having a Burke 2013 or Stauskas 2014 season that combines night-in, night-out highlights along with player of the year-level production; there's too much balance and not enough one-on-one ballhandling on the roster. Franz Wagner is going to take a leap, though, and the plays he adds to his game should be the ones that get the team juiced.

Wagner can make impact plays in a number of ways. He's flashed potential as a pick-and-roll ballhandler and was more efficient in that facet last season than any other returning player. Unlike the other best bets to handle the rock a lot, Eli Brooks and Mike Smith, Wagner has the length to finish plays at the rim. His eight dunks last year tied for third on the team behind centers Jon Teske and Austin Davis. He's a smart cutter. He's got the shooting stroke to catch fire and single-handedly swing a game. He's a disruptive defender who can turn blocks and steals into instant transition offense.

Now that he's had a year to settle in and (knock on wood) won't be coming off an injury that impacts his shot to start the season, Wagner should be one of the Big Ten's top players, and I suspect there will be some Sportscenter Top Ten plays along the way.

Prepared for the Worst

Eli Brooks and Austin Davis provide experience at key positions [Campredon]

#mgomailbag Assuming we don’t have COVID solved by the time the season starts (which seems to be how things are trending), depth will be extra important this year. How does M’s second line (so to speak) look compared to the rest of the Big 10?

— Wil Jordan, but spooky (@Tuba1060) November 1, 2020

Let's start here: this won't be like football where a team can get through an outbreak and still play as long as it doesn't spread too far. I'm guessing schools won't be able to have more than a few positives in the program before shutting it down; this is a close-quarters indoor sport with small rosters.

With that out of the way, Michigan is in particularly good shape depth-wise now that Brown is eligible. Part of that is being able to go eight deep before hitting a freshman contributor other than Hunter Dickinson. Part of that is the versatility of the players involved. When you begin laying out a very rough depth chart—please don't complain about the order, it's not the point—with players listed at all of the positions they could feasibly see the court, the depth really comes forward:

The three wing positions, in particular, have a lot of options. Wagner, Brown, and Isaiah Livers all can guard three positions. Brandon Johns opens up a lot of possibilities as a small-ball center. Point guard is going to stay a relatively small position unless Howard gets wild with his lineups; every other spot can have some major variation in what type and size of player is manning the position. Michigan should have one of the stronger benches in the conference.

Another Reason to Want Next Year to Arrive Now

How sustainable is our current basketball recruiting?

— ChrisMatt (@singingbr1ck) November 1, 2020

I see no reason why it should slow down barring an unforeseen on-court collapse. If Howard is putting together back-to-back top classes in the conference (and in 2021's case, top nationally) before ever coaching a postseason game, it's easy to imagine recruiting ramping up if the team starts winning big.

Howard isn't totally building these classes on (previously) pipe dream five-stars; the 2020 class remained solid after those options departed and 2021 has some excellent prospects beyond Caleb Houstan. Good recruiting tends to beget more good recruiting. I'm very excited to see where this goes.