Previously: The Story. Podcast 12.4A, 12.4B, 12.4C. Quarterback. Running Back. Wide Receiver. Tight End. Interior OL. Offensive Tackle. Defensive End. Defensive Tackle. Linebacker. Cornerback. Safety. Special Teams. 5Q5A: Offense.

1. What's the point of anything if OSU is just going to put up 60 on us?

Well… you see… I mean… you know?

Your author has to admit that every time he gets even slightly intrigued about football happening he quickly remembers that OSU has put Michigan in a blender the last two years, and there's no real reason to expect it will stop. I am still not over two years ago, when Michigan entered the OSU game with the #1 pass defense in the country, by both regular and fancy stats, and was systematically dismembered because their third cornerback was suddenly a giant liability.

The idea that might be a fluke went out the window last year. And now we're looking at a season where the corners are Vincent Gray, who might be okay, and the vague hope someone out of the hodge-podge of other guys breaks through. And then they need a nickelback.

I don't mean to be a downer, but what's the mechanism via which Michigan gets from gives up a zillion to anything else? To my eye the best argument you can muster is that hiring Bob Shoop gives Michigan a crafty zone expert who can anticipate and defeat OSU's approach. That feels extremely thin, because he's not the defensive coordinator.

The other way Michigan could turn around the last two years is to have a defense that's on par with OSU, talent-wise. This is not that year.

[After the JUMP: good news! we got the depressing stuff out of the way]

2. Are the defensive tackles going to submarine the season again?

[Patrick Barron]

Setting aside the OSU game, Michigan's main challenges this year are against Minnesota (giant offensive line, Mo Ibrahim), Penn State (infinite running backs), and Wisconsin (is Wisconsin). Having someone in the middle of the line who can not get thrown in a trash can is important.

Prospects here are better. Even with last year's situation Michigan mostly held Penn State's ground game down. Ricky Slade ripped off a 44 yard run when Carlo Kemp got ejected and Khaleke Hudson ended up in the wrong gap…

…and had 44 yards on the rest of their 12 running back carries. Sean Clifford had 24 yards on 9 carries. That's survivable.

It was only when elite rush offenses rolled in that Michigan got obliterated. A quick glance at Michigan's rush D from last year is  bizarre. Sack-adjusted YPC allowed against P5 teams: 6.6, 2.2, 3.0, 2.9, 4.0, 1.8, 3.8, 3.4, 5.5, 5.1. The bolded numbers are the three defenestrations by Wisconsin, OSU, and Alabama. The Nittany Lions were the only other team to even crack 4 YPC. Penn State was not an elite rush offense but finished 13th overall in SP+ offense and had three of their four main backs go over five yards a carry. And they were meh even in the midst of Michigan's one DT season.

So things should be fine, mostly? Minnesota may be far less of a problem than imagined if the right side of their line is out, as is rumored, and Penn State is down Journey Brown and his near 7 YPC. That just leaves Wisconsin, which is Wisconsin. Michigan probably cannot survive against the Badgers unless they get big steps forward from a couple defensive tackles.

The defensive tackles are likely to be a big problem against one team that Michigan is likely to lose to no matter what and then in one other game. So the answer here rests on expectations. If you're hoping to win something, the answer is yes. If you're hoping to avoid .500 the answer is no. It'll be okay.

3. Is there a way to defend these crossing routes without springing another leak?

Brad Hawkins making a tackle is usually a good sign [Bryan Fuller]

Michigan's safeties got nosy last year, a tendency that was so pronounced that Alabama's opening play of the bowl game was an 85-yard touchdown on which one of the safeties was five yards downfield, dealing with no receiver:

Firing the safeties up at crossing routes was the solution to the OSU drag route issues. It worked fine but it didn't take long for that approach to start getting exploited by opposition offenses. Even Iowa did it:

In addition to the above, approximately half of Penn State's yards last year came when that drag response got exploited, as discussed in the safeties post:

Hamler's touchdown was a bust, per Harbaugh, but also if a guy doesn't get the call his natural thought is probably to play a deep post safety; instead Hawkins creeps up to the line of scrimmage, reacting to nobody.

S #20 to top

… That's a guy operating on instinct because this is Yet Another Tempo Bust … His instinct right now is to go find a drag route instead of playing the deep middle.

This didn't happen when Michigan was running buckets of man free. Finger in the dike

"Let Dax handle it" is a potential solution—Iowa fourth down link goes here—and will definitely be tried. It is an incomplete one because while Dax Hill may be fast as all git out he is still made of atoms that will not pass through other humans trying to pick him off. Mesh is effective because no matter how fast you are sometimes you get hung up on trash across the middle.

The solution may be simply to keep getting better at what you're doing. Many of last year's problems were not structural issues but rather busts as Michigan moved to a more complicated set of things. They cannot go back to relentless man-to-man, which they don't have the personnel for. Changing it up again would have many of the same costs we saw last year. So stick with it and get better.

4. Can Dax Hill change the equation?

get em [Patrick Barron]

From last year's preview, the knock-on effects from outside leverage on slots:

Outside leverage on slots had major knock-on effects. The impact on Michigan's linebacker havoc was apparent:

• Hudson/Bush/McCray TFLs, 2017: 44.5.
• Hudson/Bush/Gil/Ross TFLs, 2018: 21.

You can delete all eight of Hudson's TFLs from the 2017 Minnesota game and still come out with a near-halving of Michigan LBs' ability to chop guys down behind the LOS.

This didn't change much last year. McGrone, Glasgow, Hudson and Ross combined for 19 TFLs. Hudson, once a sower of havoc, had just three. This is also traceable to DT play, of course, but those DTs have a limited shot at changing the equation.

Hill might if he's over the slot. Michigan can do that Polamalu stuff where he ends up being the deep safety unexpectedly. They can blitz him from odd spots and still get production out of him. They can sit him on the slot guy and have him cover both ways, as discussed above.

He can cover for a multitude of sins. If he can neutralize slots, Michigan can play more man free and have their tall corners try their best Jeremy Clark impressions. If he can disguise Michigan's approach on other snaps that man free won't be easy to anticipate and run beaters against. And if he can free up Michigan's linebacker level to blitz, to get back to the 2017 havoc, stringing together drives gets rough for the opposition.

I don't think we have any idea what a five-star safety can do for you. The upside for this defense is finding out Hill can do a hell of a lot. 

5. Well?

This isn't going to be a whole lot different than last year. Michigan will have a very good team-oriented rush that keeps pockets closed and limits scrambles. The linebackers will operate in space well; the approach will be very similar.

The two main differences point in different directions. Defensive tackle will be much improved solely because it cannot possibly be as bad without Michigan exceeding their curse limit and breaking the simulation. Cornerback will go in the other direction, quickly. I knew that I was fairly skeptical about Vincent Gray last year; going back over the clips and takes from a season ago made me significantly more nervous.

That latter isn't going to matter much except in three or four games, but it's going to make those games significantly harder to win.

BETTER

• Bosa version of Hutchinson >> real good but not that good version
• Jeter/Hinton/Smith/Speight >> those guys a year ago
• Dax Hill > Josh Metellus
• More sensible Cam McGrone > wild freshman version

SAME

• Carlo Kemp == Carlo Kemp
• Kwity Paye == Kwity Paye
• Josh Ross == Jordan Glasgow
• Brad Hawkins == Brad Hawkins

WORSE

• Backup DEs
• Vincent Gray
• Various corners
• Michael Barrett

LAST YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

Aidan Hutchinson has the most TFL output amongst Michigan DL.

Paye (12.5) and Uche (11.5) slightly outpaced Hutchinson(10). Still not a bad shout for a guy who hadn't seen a ton of playing time. Half point.

Gil gets passed by McGrone midseason but hangs on to a rotation spot. This space grumbles about it.

Gil got passed by Glasgow immediately, and McGrone became the starting MLB when Ross went out. Half point?

Metellus matches Delano Hill as a third round pick.

Sixth round to the Vikings, half point.

The 3-3-5 is a regular defense on standard downs in addition to its omnipresence on passing downs, allowing Uche to hit double-digit sacks.

They tried from time to time but couldn't make it work. Uche didn't quite get the snaps but still led the team with 8.5 sacks. Half point.

Dwumfour takes a big step forward; Kemp is pretty static. Jeter feels like he should displace Kemp as a starter but settles for being a major rotation piece.

Dwumfour was injured for much of the year again; Kemp was static; Jeter got blasted when he was out there, which was rarely. Incomplete, one point, bzzzt.

Dax Hill has to settle for being the nickelback.

One point.

Michigan hangs on to a top 10 SP+ rating by the skin of its teeth.

They finished 11th. Close enough, one point.

THIS YEAR'S STUPID PREDICTIONS

• Hutchinson is an All-American (-ish, COVID makes things weird) and is projected as a first round pick.
• Michigan finds one functional defensive tackle in addition to Kemp and things become less horrible there; depth remains a big problem. Hinton is the guy who emerges after a few games.
• McGrone isn't able to hit Bush numbers because of the DL situation but does round into a reasonable facsimile and All Big Ten player. He also has the option to leave for the draft.
• Makari Paige emerges into the nickelback by midseason. (IE, he comes in on passing downs; Hill will play over the slot.)
• Your second cornerback is Gemon Green. He's very spotty early and rounds into passable.
• Michigan is again a very good defense against everyone except the top end, but can't do much to slow OSU. Again, SP+ is going to be wonky but they stay about where they were last year (11th).