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Unverified Voracity Says Watch Out For The Storm Duck

Unverified Voracity Says Watch Out For The Storm Duck Brian December 19th, 2018 at 2:49 PM
now playing CB for UNC

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Follow this man. Eric Shap on Michigan's defensive issues in their last two outings:

A combination of a December lull against teams that don't really have Michigan's attention and a reversion seemingly well past the mean; if holding Eric Paschall to 3/13 from two without doubling wasn't a realistic picture of Michigan's D, well neither is that last set of clips above.

If NET's taken as seriously as RPI that's fine. Weird article in the Washington Post trashing the NET rankings, which are wonky as any NCAA hodgepodge is going to be but hardly a disaster waiting to happen for tournament seeding. The article has three wrong premises. One is that NET is the be-all and end-all of selection and seeding:

You might not think such a discrepancy in the rankings would mean much, but consider how this could affect the NCAA tournament, where a team like Texas Tech would be given a No. 1 seed via its NET ranking, but plays more like a No. 3 seed, per its consensus ranking.

The committee still exists. We're still talking about quadrant one wins. There are still teamsheets. NET will be followed no more blindly than RPI was. Which was a little blindly, if we're being honest, but not to the point where a team gets a one seed solely because of a single number on the sheet.

Two is that a hodge-podge of computer rankings is an appropriate comparison point. Many, if not most, of the rankings in the giant compilation the author cites are predictive rankings that are inappropriate for selecting and seeding the field. At this point in the season many still have a significant preseason component—Kenpom won't be fully preseason-free until the end of January. If the season ended today a field selected and seeded by Kenpom alone would give Purdue, which is 6-5 and has just two B-level wins, a five seed. NET ranks Purdue 31st instead of 17th. NET's deviation from the average here is a positive. The article cites Houston's NET ranking (10th) vs their computer composite (23rd), but you could cherry-pick a weird outlier for almost every one of these ranking systems. ESPN's BPI has Michigan 11th.

Three is that NET won't be able to better distinguish between teams given an additional half-season of data. This is an absurd comparison to make:

Based on last year’s consensus rankings, a top-four consensus team had an average RPI ranking of 3.3. This year the average NET ranking of a top-four team is 5.5, almost identical to a team ranked between No. 5 and No. 8 in the consensus group. In other words, the NET rankings are incapable of distinguishing between a No. 1 or No. 2 seed in the NCAA tournament, a stark contrast compared to last year where, via RPI, there was a clear difference between the two.

For one, last year's RPI-influenced committee put Kenpom #9 Kansas and Kenpom #14(!!!) Xavier on the one line. As a group the two-seeds were stronger. For two, most teams have only played a third of their games so far. Of course there is going to be more disagreement amongst ranking systems when they have less data.

The only real question is "is NET better than RPI when tourney time nears?" Open question, but it would have to try real hard to be worse.

[After THE JUMP: more NCAA legal troubles, what is USC even doing, and a sudden 180]

Weird flex but ok. Rashan Gary gets dinged a bit by PFF based on counting numbers in an article on draft prospects who underperformed:

RASHAN GARY, DL, MICHIGAN (80.4 OVERALL GRADE)

Hailing from Paramus, New Jersey, Gary was the consensus top-ranked player in the 2016 recruiting class. Unlike most players transitioning from high school to college, Gary actually lost weight at Michigan. The 290-pound high school defensive tackle is now listed as a 283-pound defensive end. The problem is his pass-rushing moves still resemble that of a defensive tackle as he’s collected a grand total of 74 pressures over the last two seasons (teammate Chase Winovich has 106 for comparison). The athleticism is evident, but he might have to transition back inside at the NFL level.

I don't disagree with some of this—Gary probably should have been a 3T at Michigan and will probably be a 3T in the NFL—but using raw counting numbers when Winovich almost literally never came off the field and Gary was rotated more, missed a number of games with shoulder issues, and played through those issues for much of the rest of his career. He's more of a risk than you'd think a #1 overall recruit would be but he's certainly done enough to go high unless you think the shoulder issue is chronic.

And now the most important part of Signing Day. Michigan did not land an All-Name teamer. Rough:

You blew it all up, you maniacs! [fist bump] The NCAA is preparing to lose the Shawne Alston case, which might set off a slow-motion avalanche. The theory behind this particular lawsuit against amateurism is that the conferences have conspired to set the value of a scholarship. If the lawsuit goes the plaintiff's way the NCAA could be prevented from setting a cap on the value of scholarships and then here we go.

Naturally, the manager class is freaking out:

If the plaintiffs win, there is concern among the Power Five that a Wild West culture could take hold. The last time conferences oversaw athlete compensation was 1956 before the advent of TV, rights fees, agents and riches from the NFL and NBA.

Ah yes. A "Wild West culture." One that is distinct from this one, where OSU keeps Urban Meyer despite his enablement of a domestic abuser, Louisville has no action taken against it despite a freakin' FBI investigation that clearly implicates their head coach despite already being on probation, and payments to recruits under the table are expected at virtually every school in the most successful football conference in the country.

I mean:

Example: If the plaintiffs win, as expected, the SEC could theoretically compensate athletes with cars.

"Theoretically."

Anyway, no time like the present to blow it all up and this may eventually be the thing that does it:

Privately, though, there seems to be a general a feeling the plaintiffs will win, setting off alarms with which the NCAA is familiar. Alston is not the first legal challenge to the NCAA's hide-bound amateurism model. But the cumulative effect of all those court cases may be a chipping away of the NCAA's DNA. Without that one-of-a-kind amateurism model that exists nowhere else in the world, critics have wondered whether the NCAA would have any remaining worth.

Does it have any currently? What's the point of having rules if you have no enforcement?

About face. Jim Delany went from discounting any idea of playoff expansion to this in the matter of a week:

“The Big Ten would be happy to discuss structure issues with colleagues,” Delany told The Athletic. “It’s probably a good idea, given all of the conversations and noise around the issue, to have discussions with our colleagues.

“The Big Ten would definitely have conversations.”

At this point it appears to be the SEC and ACC versus everyone else.

How to sabotage your athletic department in one easy step. How is this even possible in 2018?

I enjoy USC more as the bumbling post-cocaine-addiction version of itself.

Etc.: Zero ambiguity from Quinn Hughes about his plans: he gone. 2020 D recruit Jacob Truscott profiled. MSU CB Justin Layne and OSU RB Mike Weber declare for the draft. OSU won't miss Weber much but Layne was clearly a level above the rest of MSU's CBs. Kenpom on the randomness of three point D. Red enters the US Hockey Hall of Fame.

Brhino

December 19th, 2018 at 3:10 PM ^

So uh how would one pronounce the first name "Shittah", as in new Boston College Linebacker Shitta Sillah?

In reply to So uh how would one… by Brhino

I Bleed Maize N Blue

December 19th, 2018 at 5:30 PM ^

Shittazilla was an obscure lesser giant reptile with explosive diarrhea.

For obvious reasons it was better left to the Mist of history.

Robbie Moore

December 19th, 2018 at 3:12 PM ^

Me? I'm a Cordale Flott guy.

In reply to Me? I'm a Cordale Flott guy. by Robbie Moore

LickReach

December 19th, 2018 at 3:20 PM ^

why can't I upvote this comment?

In reply to why can't I upvote this… by LickReach

Castroviejo

December 19th, 2018 at 5:24 PM ^

I’m kind of an Anfernee Orji guy. However, Storm Duck is getting some serious consideration....

814 East U

December 19th, 2018 at 3:17 PM ^

Fuck. I bought a pen.

In reply to Fuck. I bought a pen. by 814 East U

redwhiteandMGOBLUE

December 19th, 2018 at 3:21 PM ^

For $200 that pen better write upside down:

In reply to For $200 that pen better… by redwhiteandMGOBLUE

JBE

December 19th, 2018 at 3:27 PM ^

$200? That’s crazy. Those pens better have sentience. 

RyGuy

December 19th, 2018 at 3:18 PM ^

Javontez Spraggins and Traveon Freshwater are my two favorites.

In reply to Javontez Spraggins and… by RyGuy

redwhiteandMGOBLUE

December 19th, 2018 at 3:37 PM ^

Kasual Savoy sounds like a 70's era disco band/club/drink. I'm in for all three even though I no longer drink.

In reply to Kasual Savoy sounds like a… by redwhiteandMGOBLUE

redwhiteandMGOBLUE

December 19th, 2018 at 3:39 PM ^

And Welton Spottsville sounds like a town from Deliverance.

In reply to Kasual Savoy sounds like a… by redwhiteandMGOBLUE

Yinka Double Dare

December 19th, 2018 at 6:25 PM ^

An updated jazz standard, Stompin' at the Kasual Savoy

Blue Sharpie

December 19th, 2018 at 3:19 PM ^

Really loving the 2019 class!

What a complete class, strengthening both sides of the ball!  Added speed at skill positions and added prime beef on both lines.  Would like to add one more RB, and maybe  a transfer DT.  

Nice to finish with some fireworks!!💥 🧨 

SlickNick

December 19th, 2018 at 3:22 PM ^

Huge miss by the staff by not landing Storm Duck. 

In reply to Huge miss by the staff by… by SlickNick

TheCube

December 19th, 2018 at 3:41 PM ^

Would be priceless if he went to Oregon 

In reply to Would be priceless if he… by TheCube

oriental andrew

December 19th, 2018 at 4:07 PM ^

Def my fav. Could have been a fit at Miami (FL) also. 

In reply to Def my fav. Could have been… by oriental andrew

B-Nut-GoBlue

December 19th, 2018 at 7:12 PM ^

Duck =/= Ibis

C'mon!

In reply to Huge miss by the staff by… by SlickNick

OwenGoBlue



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