if young metro don't trust you... pic.twitter.com/mPHHbmknAz

— Robby Kalland (@RKalland) March 19, 2016

Even though it was an admittedly mediocre year in the Big Ten (largely due to Rutgers dragging everyone down, the lower half of the conference being really shaky, and Iowa imploding again), the league managed to place seven teams in the NCAA Tournament. Three teams remain as we head into the Sweet 16 / Elite 8 weekend – Maryland takes on top overall seed Kansas late tonight; Indiana and Wisconsin landed in the same region and play North Carolina and Notre Dame respectively.

Let’s take a moment to remember the teams who have fallen (in chronological order):

PURDUE

With less than five minutes left in their first-round contests against Arkansas-Little Rock, the Boilermakers led by 14 – and eventually lost in double OT. The shaky Purdue backcourt turned the ball over 18 times, the offense was held to under a point per possession, and UALR’s best player put up a ridiculous line: 31 points, 7 rebounds, 6 assists, and 5 steals. Soon to be overshadowed by bigger and more improbable upsets, Purdue’s utter collapse down the stretch was mostly forgotten. Ultimately, they were unable to adequately leverage their size advantage against Little Rock, and their season was over – a decent enough season, but one that probably fell short of expectations.

MICHIGAN STATE

The Spartans entered the tournament as one of the hottest teams in the country: MSU was the consensus betting favorite to win the national championship, boasted a senior national player of the year candidate, and have a coach who’s practically synonymous with March success. That coach said this MSU team was good enough to win the national championship. They probably were.

And the the 15-seed Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders put up 90 on them en route to a historic upset win. Not only was the 1.32 PPP tallied by MTSU the highest, by far, that the Spartans had allowed this season, it was also the Blue Raiders’ best – against anybody. They jumped out to an early 15-2 lead (in the 2/15 game, oddly enough) and were able to continue their torrid pace just long enough to hold off the Spartans, seemingly rebutting every MSU run with a huge bucket of their own. The undersized underdogs wound up going 11-19 from three and four of their starters finished with at least 15 points. State’s seniors played well – especially Matt Costello, who feasted against MTSU – but their careers ended far short of the Final Four most assumed they’d return to.

It was the biggest upset of this Izzo March and, even though Middle Tennessee State ran out of gas against Syracuse, this one should go down as one of the all-time greats. Schadenfreude ist die schönste freude, or so they say.

MICHIGAN

Deep down, we all knew that this team wouldn’t last long – though I do think that the three post-season wins in must-win games (Northwestern, Indiana, Tulsa) indicated a theretofore hidden level of resilience that few thought was there. After a stretch of the team’s best basketball, the defense finally collapsed against Notre Dame in the second half; Derrick Walton and Zak Irvin, the ostensible cornerstones of the team, combined for 19 points on 29 shot equivalents against the Irish. Ice cold three-point shooting did Michigan in – right down to a late Irvin would-be equalizer from deep after an aimless possession in crunch time.

It was a tough year with some bad breaks, but ultimately the team still did play its way into the tournament. It’s hard not to think about what could have been with Caris and Spike healthy. Now for a long summer of watching Xavier Simpson highlight videos and hoping Moritz Wagner beefs up and learns not to foul all the time.

IOWA

After a thrilling overtime win in the first round against Temple (the worst at-large selection on Kenpom by a wide margin), Iowa went out with a whimper, getting annihilated by Villanova in the Round of 32. Ultimately, a core that had been building for years managed to fall apart in the last month of the season again. I watched them lose to an abysmal Illinois team in person, and the aura around the Hawkeyes was indelible. What a remarkably depressing team.

[After the JUMP: looking at the teams who are still alive]

Maryland

Anybody else remember the last time Kansas faced a Big Ten team in the Sweet 16?h

[starts yelling “TREY BURKE” involuntarily over and over in this coffee shop]

Anyways, the good-at-basketball n00bs made it through the first weekend – after coming perilously close to choking away the 5/12 game against South Dakota State, the Terrapins were lucky enough to find 13-seed Hawaii, fresh off an upset against Cal, in the Round of 32, pulling away from the Rainbow Warriors about halfway through the second half. The Hawaii game was particularly weird, as UH grabbed 16 offensive boards to Maryland’s 3, but posted a horrible eFG% of just 35.7%. Melo Trimble was the best player for UMD over those two games – a good sign moving forward – but may not find it as easy to live at the free throw line (as he hit a combined 22-23 FTA in the first two rounds).

On Selection Sunday, Turgeon’s Turtles found themselves in the 4 / 5 pod opposite the overall 1-seed, Kansas, and unsurprisingly, they’ll have to face the Jayhawks in the Sweet 16. In the best league in college basketball this year, KU extended its absurd streak of Big 12 regular season titles and won its conference tournament. They’re led by veterans: Perry Ellis has been around since the days of Danny Manning with his old-man inside-outside game; Wayne Selden has finally fulfilled his promise on the wing; Frank Mason ably controls the offense from the point guard spot. Devonte’ Graham has emerged as a really good two-guard, and Kansas’s frontcourt depth chart is just ridiculous: behind Ellis and Landen Lucas is third big Jamari Traylor – and two five star freshmen (including phenom Chieck Diallo) battle with another senior for minutes behind them. With shooters Brannen Greene and Svi Mykhailiuk coming off the bench, the Jayhawks have an unparalleled roster in terms of their depth of talent.

Maryland has talent of its own – perhaps even more, in terms of eventual NBA potential. The Terps don’t have much depth, and will likely have to lean on their starters for big minutes tonight. The battle between Ellis and Robert Carter at the four should be pretty interesting, as they play similar styles; Diamond Stone will have his hands full with a huge, experienced front line (but it could easily be argued that he’s the best 5 in this game); Melo Trimble will have to hope that the whistle remains friendly as he plays for contact and trips to the free throw line. Maryland can run hot and cold from outside, but shooting from Jake Layman and Rasheed Suliamon will be critical.

Kenpom likes Kansas by six and gives Maryland a 27% chance of pulling the upset and facing the winner of the chalky half of the other side of the bracket – 2-seed Villanova or 3-seed Miami. KU had the best regular season of anyone, but they are nowhere near indestructible and Maryland has the talent to upset anyone.

WISCONSIN

The early favorite for the ugliest game of the tournament was Wisconsin – Pittsburgh in the Round of 64, a game so ugly that longtime Pitt head coach Jaime Dixon fled to TCU afterwards. Neither team scored at least 0.9 points per possession and that, coupled with a fairly slow tempo, gave us the final scoreline of 47-43. Wisconsin generated enough extra possessions from offensive rebounding and turnovers to get an edge in shot volume overall against Pitt: they needed it, as they finished with an atrocious eFG% of 28.3%. Nigel Hayes scored 12 points on 21 shot equivalents. And they won!

The Badgers’ next game against 2-seed Xavier was a good one: a buzzer-beating Bronson Koenig three capped a 17-5 Wisconsin run in the final minutes to give them a 66-63 win after Xavier’s last possession was ended on a dubious charge call. Hayes was still off, but a heroic performance from Koenig – who hit six threes (previous career high was four) – and freshman big Ethan Happ won the battle inside against Jalen Reynolds. For their part, Xavier was just never able to get into a great offensive rhythm late and nobody stepped up individually to score more than 13 points or get big buckets down the stretch.

In the Sweet 16 game, 7-seed Wisconsin takes on 6-seed Notre Dame – an elite matchup when the high-powered Irish offense has the ball trying to score on the stout Badger defense. Kenpom gives Wisconsin a one-point cushion and a 52% chance of advancing to the Elite Eight in one of the most competitive games on paper in this round. Notre Dame just barely squeaked by Stephen F. Austin after beating Michigan, and the suspect Irish defense has struggled in the tournament thus far. It might be the perfect antidote for Hayes, who’s playing really poorly, and the iffy Wisconsin offense, which has been just getting by.

Because the Badgers made the final game a season ago, it’s not right to consider them an underdog or Cinderella, but the job that Greg Gard has done over the last several weeks (and in the postseason already) along with the nature of Wisconsin’s close wins has definitely given the team a slight Cinderella vibe, even though they’re a proven commodity in the upper tier of NCAA basketball. Still, this team lost to Western Illinois (#238 in Kenpom) and made the Sweet 16 in the same season. The turnaround was really impressive.

INDIANA

The Hoosiers rolled in their 5/12 opening round matchup against Chattanooga to set up a Round of 32 rivalry showdown between IU and Kentucky, and that game lived up to the billing. It was a high-level contest in a great atmosphere – predictably, both fanbases turned out for a matchup between the Big Ten and SEC champs, a game that probably could (and should) have waited a few rounds. Tyler Ulis and Yogi Ferrell traded blows in an elite individual matchup of diminutive point guards (and Ulis put up a game-high 27 points); Thomas Bryant won the battle inside against Marcus Lee and Skal Labissiere; OG Anunoby harassed UK one-and-done Jamal Murray into tough shots all game. John Calipari famously ended the IU-UK series after being upset in December 2011, and Tom Crean wins another round. I wonder if Coach Cal will pull the offer of a yearly neutral site game off the table now.

Unfortunately for Indiana, they face North Carolina in the Sweet 16 – and the ACC regular season and tournament champs are one of the most imposing teams in college basketball. They’re led by two seniors: point guard Marcus Paige has been injured this season but is the stabilizing force in the Carolina backcourt, and big man Brice Johnson is a rebounding machine and scoring force around the basket. There are other solid pieces: Kennedy Meeks, Isaiah Hicks, and Joel James are all massive and experienced inside, Justin Jackson gives UNC great length at the three, and Joel Berry has emerged as the Heels’ only quality outside shooting threat. They’re in the top 15 of Kenpom’s offensive and defensive efficiency – outstanding offensive rebounding and inside scoring give their offense a slight edge.

This shapes up as a classic contrast in styles. UNC is one of the most three-point averse teams in the country, and pounds the ball inside with a cast of highly-touted big men who are proficient in the post. If they don’t score, they often get a rebound. Indiana has a promising freshman big, certainly, but they like to play with four guards / wings on the floor at a given time, lack much depth up front, and launch from deep. UNC has a clear athletic advantage, but Indiana’s offense is one of the most capable in the country and they should be able to generate points like they have all year. The biggest question comes when they choose (or are forced to) go small: Bryant and Max Bielfeldt alone don’t look to be enough against the cast of gargantuans who will surely aim to get them in foul trouble and crash the glass every time down.

Kenpom gives UNC a four-point edge and a 66% chance of avoiding the upset, but Indiana was clearly an under-seeded team and very well could pull the upset against North Carolina. Indiana – Kentucky was arguably the most well-played game of the first 52 in the NCAA Tournament, and this one could be even better.

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Best of luck to our Big Ten frenemies.