D Bode Wilde is the headliner

THE SPOTS

There's no way around the fact that Michigan has too many guys coming in to fit on one hockey roster. I'm not sure if this is in fact oversigning since hockey is not a headcount sport so you can split scholarships. Some incoming commits might be on half or a quarter scholarship; a few are probably pure walk-ons. And it's common to offer guys a "yes, but" in which they might come in in year X or might have to take another year in junior, depending on what ravages your roster sustains.

So: Michigan has six seniors who will definitely exit. Four are forwards; two are defensemen. Two of those forwards (Porikos and Roos) are probably not getting much, if any scholarship money, FWIW. They open up a roster slot but not a scholarship one. Cooper Marody has also left for the NHL.

Nick Boka, Joe Cecconi, and Brendan Warren are all draftees entering their final year of eligibility. NHL teams often try to sign those players since a player who stays four years at college can become a free agent. Warren probably hasn't done enough to warrant a contract; Boka is iffy; Cecconi probably has.

Michigan also has a few underclass departure threats: Luke Martin and Will Lockwood were second round picks and Quinn Hughes is about to go top ten—possibly top five. Lockwood got hurt the second half of the year and Hughes seems unlikely to bolt immediately, if only because he's a wee gent who could use a second year in Ann Arbor before attempting to crack an NHL roster. Martin is tough to tell since he's not much of an offensive threat.

Michigan needs somewhere between seven and ten guys unless this year's Michigan Hockey Summer is especially severe.

THE GONE

Since the last time we looked at the 2018 class, Michigan lost Mattias Samuelsson to WMU, Alec Regula to the OHL, and Gustaf Westlund to Ohio State. They plugged in probable top 15 draft pick Bode Wilde at D so the D losses won't hurt Michigan much. Westlund is a '97 with 34 points in 54 USHL games and is probably not a huge loss.

FWIW, I remain skeptical that Kenny Johnson is actually going to play for Michigan.

THE OLD

The three longstanding commits in the class who are still in it are all midlevel prospects; they're not sure things but they come with some reasons for optimism. None figure to have much immediate impact.

Randl drives action

Jack Randl is in his second year with the USHL's Omaha Lancers. He's got 32 points in 49 games, which is sixth on his team. A couple caveats: he's second in goals and he's the top 2000-born player on the team; only one of the guys in front of him is even a '99. HS-age guys who are close to a PPG in the USHL project as scoring line players, at least down the road. He's a bit borderline in that department. Possibly helpful: a hockey analytics guy named Will Scouch compiles numbers for the draft and Randl leads everyone in the USHL or CHL in % of goals where he either scores or has the primary assist.

P1IPP?

1) Jack Randl - 82.6%
2) Andrei Svechnikov - 82.1%
3) Tristen Nielsen - 73.9%
4) Serron Noel - 72.2%
5) Ryan O'Reilly - 72.2%
6) Sampo Ranta - 72.2%
7) Blade Jenkins - 70.7%
8) Hunter Holmes - 68.8%
9) Filip Zadina - 67.7%
10) Allan McShane - 67.4%

— Will Scouch (@Scouching) February 25, 2018

This means that he's driving most of the play when he's on the ice. USHR did like him quite a bit in a prospects game where he slotted in just behind a variety of high draft picks:

7. Jack Randl -- Michigan recruit had a goal and two assists, made plays consistently. Strong skater.

Randl got called up to the U18s to play at the Five Nations tourney in February, which is also a pretty good sign. He might go late in the NHL draft. He's ranked 158th by the CSB.

[After the JUMP: a lot more guys. Also a nine year old's absurd shootout goal.]

Calen Kiefiuk is in a similar range with 37 points in 56 games on what looks like a pretty bad team. He's second on the team in scoring behind a '98 headed to Cornell, with no one else particularly close. His size means he'd have to be piling up a ton of points to draw NHL attention, and he's not. He is tracking towards useful bottom six guy early who hopefully emerges as an upperclassman.  Andrew Ebbett?

D Jacob Semik has 17 points in 51 games, but that might underestimate how much impact he has on his team. Scouch has another thing called "Cat%" that he tracks for USHL/CHL draft prospects; an OffCat% of 50 means that his team scores 50% more even strength goals when he's on the ice than they do when he's off it. Semik slots in fourth in all four leagues:

Non-USDP CHL/USHL leaders for OffCat%

1) Ty Smith - 139.9%
2) Akil Thomas - 130.5%
3) Evan Bouchard - 105.04%
4) Jacob Semik - 102.9%
5) Eric Florchuk - 98.96%
6) Filip Zadina - 98.5%
7) Travis Mitchell - 90.8%
8) Brady Hinz - 86.5%
9) Matej Pekar - 78.2%
10) Noah Dobson - 76.2%

— Will Scouch (@Scouching) February 25, 2018

There are six projected first round picks on this list and three more guys who are probably off the board by the time the third round is over. It is a very good list to be on. Semik is a little more goal permeable than the rest of his team but is still fourth in the unified stat. Could be noise. Could be meaningful. The CSB is not impressed, leaving him unranked. Another draft observer last summer:

LHD Jacob Semik: Team USA’s defense corps could use some work in the puck management department, but Semik was its most reliable. He quarterbacked the top power play unit, where he revealed a hard, accurate wrist shot and used quick head-man passes from as far back as his own goal line to catch opponents in a line change. He’s a fluid skater with above-average speed, and he uses strong edges and solid pivots to avoid pressure and create time and space. His one-on-one defending and play from inside his own zone is a bit rough, as he allows too much room on zone entries and is guilty of floating far from his slot responsibilities. He’ll likely play on Dubuque’s top pairing this season before heading to Ann Arbor to play for Michigan. 

He'll probably slot in to the third pair. Pearson is clearly prioritizing puck-moving defensemen—virtually every D commit not named Owen Power is a moderate-to-small guy who skates, handles, and passes well—and Semik fits the bill.

THE NEW

So this turned into a clown car. Just by looking at stats I'm guessing that most of the following guys are walk-ons, or close enough:

• G Strauss Mann, a '98 who's coming in when Michigan (probably?) returns both goalies. He does have the #3 save percentage in the USHL, but in just 32 games so that's a small sample. If I had to guess I'd say that Mann has been promised whatever money Lafontaine/Lavigne gets when they depart. Lafontaine, a third round pick who lost the starting job to Lavigne and has to hear the clock ticking, could be a departure threat.
• F Garrett Van Whye, a '97 who was committed to Army. 0.5 PPG in the USHL.
• F Jack Olmstead, a '98 scoring a PPG in the NAHL. The top scorer in the NAHL is going to Bentley. Instate.
• F Nick Granowicz, a '98 who moved from the NAHL to the USHL mid-season and has 9 points in 28 games with Cedar Rapids. Instate.
• F/D Nick Blankenburg, a '98 with about a PPG in the AJHL. Instate. There's some confusion about Blankenburg's position. It seems like he moved to D at some point, which makes his scoring a lot more interesting. But he's listed at 5'8", and that's a big size deficit to overcome for a guy who's an AJHL overager.

This looks like Michigan taking a bunch of shots in the dark and hoping to get a player or two out of them.

There are a number of late adds who probably had significant scholarship money as part of the deal. Bode Wilde is projected as a top 15 pick in the upcoming draft, so… yeah. He's on a full ride. USHR actually liked Wilde better than someone you're familiar with at that prospects game:

1. Bode Wilde -- Top d-man in the game, maybe even the best player. Nifty hands. Good defensively. Strong. Good body position. Just very impressive. Recently committed to Michigan.
2. Quinn Hughes

…and while I don't think that holds up, the NHL's opinion isn't much different. Wilde and Hughes are probably going to be separated by fewer than ten picks. And while Wilde isn't the sui generis talent that Hughes is, he's no slouch at rushing the puck himself:

Replay | @BodeWilde274 in the first #USAvsTC #NTDP pic.twitter.com/FxHUoU6ohY

— x-USA Hockey NTDP (@USAHockeyNTDP) March 11, 2018

 The Draft Analyst makes him sound a lot like Hughes:

“A defender with arguably the highest upside of any of his talented NTDP teammates, this Harvard-bound blueliner is a phenomenal skater with a blistering shot. Big, thick defensemen that look graceful while carrying the puck simply don’t grow on trees, and you’d probably hear more about him if his draft year wasn’t loaded with cornerstone-type defenders. Wilde is one confident teenager, maybe sometimes to a fault, as doing “too much” with the puck is something he’ll have to limit. … Once he crosses center, he is as close to the complete package as they come, and his size and right-handed shot make him an extremely tantalizing prospect with star potential. Wilde’s risk taking can put his mates in jeopardy, so you’d like to see him go through stretches when he puts a premium on sound positioning, and is willing to refrain from deep attacks every single shift.”

His 12-29-41 line in 54 games leads NTDP defensemen by some distance and actually places him fifth on the team. If Hughes returns Michigan will probably split their two top-end guys, giving Michigan very few shifts where they don't have an elite puckmoving D on the ice. Per scouting reports there will be some defensive bumps early, which is par for the course for super-skilled quasi-forward Ds.

Great individual effort by Nolan Moyle sets up a @GamblersHockey goal pic.twitter.com/PxJuLIjPEL

— USHL (@USHL) October 22, 2017

F Nolan Moyle is a recruit Michigan is no doubt offering a healthy chunk of money to after flipping him from Michigan State. He's a late '99 with 45 points in 57 games in the USHL, and he was ranked #102 by ISS for last year's draft. He did not go in it—not really a surprise after a 15 point season—but a near PPG from an 18 year old in the USHL is a guy on track for a scoring line role in college. Jeff Cox:

…not a flashy player. It takes a while to notice him out there and to appreciate what he brings to the game. He has sneaky speed with a good stride. He does a good job bringing the puck into scoring areas from the walls. He showed his extra gear to get past Tyler Inamoto on Wednesday, beating him down the left side. He also had a nice tip-in goal on Monday.

There's not much out there other than that; Moyle bounced back from a rough first season to post his current production and could be a relatively early contributor.

F Jimmy Lambert is also getting . He's one of the top scorers in the BCHL. He's also 21. Originally scheduled to head to Alaska-Fairbanks this season, he decommitted after they fired their coach and decided to poke around junior for another year. That decision paid off, as Lambert got offers from Michigan and Ohio State. Despite his status a very overage person he is a top prospect per the Neutral Zone:

4.25⭐️ prospect is one of the top '97 prospects in US & CAN. The creative forward has dynamic hands & hockey sense. A at BCHL Showcase. https://t.co/4vToa7sB0q

— Neutral Zone (@_Neutral_Zone) October 25, 2017

Given his age he should be a top six candidate immediately.

D Jake Gingell was scheduled to join Michigan Tech this year but took another year of junior because there wasn't room on Tech's roster. Apparently that didn't piss Gingell off, because he's happy enough to follow Mel to Ann Arbor. You have to think he's definitely coming this year and getting some chunk of money. The Neutral Zone gives him 3.5 stars, calling him a "shut-down, physical, veteran defenseman"—making him pretty much the only D in the pipeline who isn't a puck mover. He was suspended twice last season, once for a cross-check and once for a spear, so… uh. Aggressive guy.

D Keaton Pehrson is in exactly the same situation: signed to Tech but took a year in junior after finishing his high school career and is now headed to Ann Arbor. He was eligible for the NHL draft last year and ranked 158th per the CSB; he did not get picked. The Neutral Zone also gives him 3.5 stars, which is pretty good for a late rando pickup, because of his "great size and skating ability." Chris Dilks on Pehrson after his senior year in HS:

…incredibly smooth skater that can control the game from the blue line with his feet. He’s a strong reliable defender and can move the puck up the ice.

Pehrson's from Minnesota, vaguely draftable, and probably wasn't listening to any "maybe this year, maybe next" offers after taking a (possibly) unexpected extra year in the USHL.

THE WHITE WHALES

And there's Jack Hughes, the probable #1 pick in the 2019 draft and Quinn's brother. Hughes has crushed NTDP competition like no other U17—or U18—in the history of the program save Auston Matthews…

Another look at the @jhughes_86 tally. #U18Worlds#TeamUSA trailing 5-4 with 5:30 to play. pic.twitter.com/qGg4FvknJC

— USA Hockey (@usahockey) April 19, 2018

…and will either stick with the NTDP or accelerate and join his brother. If it's the latter, Michigan will make room for him. (Surprise!)The most recent update comes from that NYT profile and makes it sound like he will not be accelerating. That could either be an assumption from the author or news.

The other white whale is Oliver Wahlstrom, a top ten pick who recently shook free from his Harvard commitment and is looking at Michigan, BC, or a year in Europe. Wahlstrom did this as a nine year old…

Throwback to 9 year old Oliver Wahlstrom scoring an insane shootout goal before a Boston Bruins game back in 2009. Wahlstrom is now considered a top prospect in the upcoming NHL Draft: pic.twitter.com/S1BHByarSl

— From The Faceoff (@FromTheFaceoff) April 5, 2018

…and hasn't slowed down since. Wahlstrom plays with Hughes on he U18s top line and has an absurd 41-44-85 line in 55 games. The addition of Hughes did spike his scoring rate but he was at an excellent 1.2 PPG even before Hughes got promoted. Adding Wahlstrom would change the complexion of Michigan's season immensely.

What's going to happen, then?

At F I'd look at Moyle, Lambert, Kiefiuk, and Randl as confirmed scholarship recruits who Michigan expects will play much or all of the season. Van Whye, Olmstead, and Granowicz are walk-on-ish. Michigan will take them, kick the tires, and one or two will get a firm handshake after a couple years. Things get a little complicated if Hughes or Wahlstrom join up, but not that complicated.

D is a stickier wicket. It seems unlikely that many, if any, of the five commits would be content to play another year in junior. That's obviously out of the question for Wilde. The two Tech flips already took a year in junior they might not have expected to. And Semik is a longtime commit and USHL player who seems ready. Blankenburg is probably on light money.

Wilde will be a big boost to the D corps, but Michigan was clearly hurt by the coaching uncertainty in this class and doesn't have any likely difference-maker forwards, at least not early. One or two should emerge into solid top six players in a year or two. Obviously, getting either Wahlstrom or Hughes is a game-changer.