PITTSBURGH – Last year as a member of the Houston Astros, Chris Carter put the ball in play 263 times, consisting of 73 ground balls, 127 fly balls, 45 line drives, 11 infield fly balls and seven infield hits

Carter saw 1,963 pitches (1,196 strikes, 767 balls) that resulted in a batting line of .199/.307/.427. His strikeout rate was 32.8% to go along with a walk rate of 12.4%. His BABIP was .244.

These numbers further justify what we already know – Carter’s tag as a true three outcome player (home run, strikeout or walk) is highly accurate. Consider Carter’s at-bats resulted in a home run (24), strikeout (151) or walk (57) in 232 of his 460 plate appearances (or 50.4% of the time).

In the offseason, Carter was signed to a one-year, $2.5 million contract after the Astros declined to offer him a contract in December. After looking at his batting line from the previous year, coupled with Houston’s army of prospects ready to take over at first base it would seemingly make sense for the Astros to let Carter go.

And while Carter may be seen as nothing more than a stop gap for the rebuilding Brewers, the numbers show that Milwaukee could be in for a bargain at one-year, $2.5 million.

In looking at Carter’s 2015 data from Baseball Savant, 211 of Carter’s 263 balls in play were recorded by StatCast (the missing 52 were likely not recorded because of the limitations of StatCast data, of which Minute Maid was a main culprit).

Of those 211 balls that were recorded, Carter got a hit 77 times for a batting average of .365. Furthermore, of those 211 balls put in play, his average exit velocity was 92.7 mph (which would have ranked as the 21st-highest average exit velocity in 2015).

In looking at his 24 home runs, the launch angle for each HR was between 18.7 degrees and 39.7 degrees, with two measuring in the teens (18.7 and 19.9 degrees), 16 between 20.9 and 29.7 degrees and six between 31.5 degrees and and 39.7 degrees.

Below are examples of the two extremes, relative to home run launch (18.7 degrees and 39.7 degrees):

If we look at the average exit velocity for players with balls hit between 18 degrees and 40 degrees, Carter ranks third at 96.5 mph. Then, if we shrink those numbers to between 15 degrees and 30 degrees, Carter now ranks fifth at 98.9 mph¹

And let’s not forget that these numbers are being pulled from his 2015 season, one which led Houston to non-tender him in the offseason.

But seeing him go opposite field for his first home run of the season against Jeff Samardzija is a good sign, considering Carter regularly pulls the ball 50% of the time (with a fly ball rate of 50% as well) and only goes opposite field around 23% of the time.

So far through the early parts of this season, Carter has gone the other way 42.9% of the time. How long this sustains itself is to be seen, but it does portend to a possible change that could could have lasting impact.

While this may be a very ‘glass half full’ way of looking at Carter’s early tenure in Milwaukee, time will ultimately tell if he remains the same player he has always been at the MLB level.

We know with Carter when it gets ugly, it gets ugly. But when he makes contact, it’s usually very, very good and the results can be outstanding.

The Brewers, of course, are hoping for more of the latter.

#DKBaseball

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Footnotes:

1) Clearly, the man has power – especially when it comes to hitting fly balls great distances