We're now about a week into the new year, and baseball business is beginning to pick up a little bit of steam, at least rumor wise. J.D. Martinez seems destined for Boston, and that should kick things into gear a bit on the free agency front and it appears all of the Giants potential options have now come to the forefront and it shouldn't be much longer before we see the next addition for the 2018 roster.

So far, the names linked to the Giants have included about a half-dozen outfielders, as the team still has two gaping holes in left and center, and they're going to hope like heck they can land two of those 6-8 guys that have been linked to them or have been discussed by the team. Those names are: Jay Bruce, Carlos Gonzalez, Jackie Bradley Jr., Billy Hamilton, Andrew McCutchen and Jarrod Dyson. If I were to bet right this second on the most likely of the six to join the squad, I'd go with either CarGo or Bruce and the guy I would bank on being the center fielder for them at this moment (assuming they go out and get one) would be Jarrod Dyson. However, if they could somehow land CarGo or Bruce and McCutchen for center, it would put the Giants right back in the thick of the NL wild-card race (as I just don't see anyone dethroning the Dodgers anytime soon as the top dogs in the West). The thing is, if they indeed brought in a Gonzalez on a new deal and absorbed most of McCutchen's $16M salary for 2018, it would put them over the luxury tax threshold. So unless they get creative and defer some money, or maybe drop another big contract (which doesn't seem likely unless they found someone to take Belt and felt like Chris Shaw could take over 1B in 2018), they probably are only settling for one bigger budget signing/trade and a much smaller budget signing/trade like Dyson.

I really want to be optimistic about 2018, and be able to truly consider the Giants much improved from 2017 and a playoff contender next season, but I just don't see how they're going to be able to make the additions they absolutely need without getting into CB luxury tax penalty range. I mean, let's say they do finagle a trade for McCuthchen, or sign Bruce/CarGo and Dyson, it would still leave the Giants with question marks in right field, their bench, and the back-end of their rotation. In an ideal world, they could use another reliable late-reliever to throw in the mix, preferably left-handed, but two outfielders and a back-end starter outweigh the bullpen needs.

The Giants' pen, if healthy, should be improved in 2018, even if they don't add anyone of significance. Mark Melancon should be back in top-end closer form and hopefully Will Smith will be back in his Milwaukee Brewer form after his major surgery last spring. If that's the case, then they'd be set at the back-end of the pen with Melancon closing and Hunter Strickland and Smith being the primary set-up guys. The mid-relief isn't terrible, but they need Derek Law back closer to his 2016 form rather than last years 5.00+ ERA and ridiculous 1.57 WHIP output. Cory Gearin is coming off a solid season and should have his spot locked in either as a  long reliever or in mid-relief and Sam Dyson, who thrived for the most part as the Giants closer in the seasons final two months, should find himself in some sort of role in the '18 pen.


Sam Dyson's situation is tricky to predict though as he could settle in anywhere from being a set-up

man to Melancon to being in middle relief or ending up not earning a job out of spring at all. I mean, he's had such a bizarre couple of seasons after having a very successful run in 2016 as Texas' closer, it looked like that would be his job for the next few years at least, but he was so poor for the Rangers to start the year, that they essentially negated his 38-save campaign the season prior and cut him loose. He then came over to the Giants and took over the closers job and did a pretty darn admirable job, posting 14 saves and a 4.03 ERA in two months as the teams closer, although they'd like to see that 1.42 WHIP he posted drop at least a .1-.15 points and that ERA drop under 4.00, which he's more than capable of doing seeing as he's sported an ERA in the mid-3's on average throughout his career. Not only is Derek Law's hopeful return to form a huge key to success for the Giants in 2018, but Sam Dyson and Will Smith I think are two guys that need to be around their career averages in order for this bullpen to work without any outside additions.


The starting rotation though is an area I'm very surprised has not gotten more attention this winter, and by all accounts, doesn't seem to be a priority for this ball club which is ironic in the sense that when this team has been that World Series level team, they've always done it behind rock-solid starting pitching. As we said last post, right now, you got Madison Bumgarner, who's a true ace and perfect guy atop the rotation, however he himself is coming off a year in which he missed 3 months and wasn't necessarily the lights-out, tough to hit and score upon pitcher we've seen in years past. Granted, he threw well for the most part after his return, just not quite up to his expectations I'm sure. But he's now had an offseason to recover and the missed time in 2017 may have been a blessing in disguise seeing as the Giants weren't going anywhere even had MadBum stayed on the field all year. Instead, he got some major rest in 2017 and should be the most fresh he's ever been heading into a season this spring. Aside from Bumgarner, Cueto too had injuries he dealt with for most the year, and was pretty darn mediocre when he was on the mound and was no where near the pitcher he was in '16.

Then there's the Samardzija, who despite his 15 losses and 4.42 ERA, was arguably the teams most reliable starter from start to finish. Despite the higher ERA, he posted a very solid 1.13 WHIP, which is right around what MadBum usually posts, plus "Shark" led the team with 205 K's and 207 innings of work. I think MadBum will be back to his usual form, and I expect improvement from Cueto. Although I don't think we'll get another 2016-level performance from the number 2 starter, 200 innings pitched, a sub-4 ERA and a WHIP at 1.25 or lower would be acceptable compared to last years 4.52 ERA, 1.44 WHIP and only 147 innings pitched. As for projected number-3 Samardzija, I would take a repeat of last years performance, with hopefully a more reliable bullpen and a little more offense could flip-flop his win-loss numbers from a year ago and also see that ERA drop back down below 4.00 as well, where he was in his first year with the club in 2016 (3.81 ERA).

Again though, those are some big questions and a lot of things that need to get back on track for the Giants front-3 starters, meaning they could certainly use some stability at the bottom half of the rotation. As I've said all offseason, I'm completely content with Chris Stratten being the 5th guy, but if it's Blach as the fifth guy and Stratten bumped up to 4th then. That's just not a rotation I see competing with the likes of Arizona, Colorado and the other Wild Card contenders, especially with a team with a mediocre offense and without a lights-out, shut down bullpen, or at least not that we've seen thus far.

I get all the attention that's being given to upgrading the outfield/offense, but even if they do accomplish what they want in that area, I don't know that they'll have the pitching depth to to be those serious contenders like the want to be next season. Of course, Stratten could become the next big arm to come up through the system and build off his solid 2017 showing and maybe Tyler Beede shows he's ready in spring and he bursts onto the scene in 2018 in a big way, but you can't bank on that, and the Giants need to not forget about their rotation before spring training. I don't expect anything big, but a Jeremy Hellickson, Jaime Garcia or R.A. Dickey may not be bad, cheap one-year options to throw into the rotation mix. I would prefer to have Blach as the long reliever/spot starter if needed and I don't think Tyler Beede is quite ready, so another veteran with a history of some success could do a lot for this rotation. They simply can't forget about the area of their team that's been the focal point of their success, that being the starting rotation!