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Critical Inside Betting Info For Monday

Critical Inside Betting Info For Monday

Some news and notes for tonight’s portfolio from Joe Duffy, CEO of

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Washington Joe Ross 5.91 ERA, horrid .378 OBP

  • Stunning .50 ERA, .261 OBP against last 3
  • Better on road than at home, .315 OBP compared to .455

Pirates Trevor Williams 5.25 ERA and .330 OBP

  • 11 ER last 10 IP
  • .400 OBP last three starts

Team trends

  • Pittsburgh 110-178 underdog -37.98 units

Riding hot Road teams that are not underdogs of 105 or more is 234-131 since 2017 +66.96 units and 13.6 ROI

Milwaukee-St. Louis

Milwaukee Zach Davis 3.74 ERA

  • 11.77 ERA last three starts .400 OBP and 2.00 WHIP
  • Substantially better on road 2.97 ERA, compared to 4.66 road, though OBP and WHIP about the same
  • Much better at night with 2.67 ERA compared to 4.91 day, but again WHIP and OBP not as dichotomous

Dakota Watson, Cards 17-8 with him, though overall numbers are okay

  • .410 OBP last three starts
  • Numbers slightly worse at home and at night

Milwaukee lost 16-8 yesterday. Fading teams off a loss of seven or more is +107.75 units and 12.2 ROI under specific circumstances that apply today

Team trends:

  • Cards under 686-555-68 at home since 2004

Kansas City-Baltimore

Kansas City’s reliever Jorge Lopez making second straight start giving up 5 runs, 4 earned in 1.1 in initial start

  • 30 appearances, but 11 as starter
  • 6.51 ERA, 1.55 WHIP
  • Numbers less horrible on road

Baltimore’s John Means 10 ER last 7.1 IP, allowing 13 hits

  • Respectable 6-3 home, 3.00 ERA and .260 OPB against, with 1.03 WHIP

Favorites that have lost at least 12 of 13 are 21-20 all-time on runline +28 ROI

Home favorites with 45 or more losses and winning percentage of .315 or less 14-8 all-time with 6.6 ROI

Team trends:

  • Kansas City 127-218 -53 units since 2017
  • Baltimore 273-169 home favorites since 2008 for +47.92 unit

KC hitting .215 last 10, Baltimore .238

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Critical Inside Betting Info For Monday


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