Season: 79-41
Last Week: 11-2
ATS: 15-16-1 (Last Week: 4-0)
Lock: 3-5
Redskins: 6-1
Finally, a perfect week ATS... I've been trending up the past few weeks, with a couple of bad beats mixed in. Still off the pace from previous years, but hopefully this was the start of a run. I thought the Bengals were a lock to crush the Jets and it played out exactly in that fashion. As a matter of fact, all 4 of the games I picked ATS covered easily this week. Also predicted a mild upset SU with the Raiders beating the Steelers.
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This Week:
Cincinnati at Miami: The Bengals might be figuring things out. And if they are, I actually favor them to win the AFC because their roster is the deepest and most talented in the conference. The biggest lingering question is whether or not Andy Dalton can go toe to toe in a playoff game with a counterpart like Peyton or Brady. I still have my doubts, but if he continues to have performances like he did last week, those doubts will slowly be eased. The Bengals are the superior team here by a mile, but I do worry about the short week and the desperation factor for Miami. I also still want to see Cincy avoid the puzzling letdown losses that have plagued them before I go overboard in my praise.
Bengals 24, Dolphins 21
Atlanta at Carolina: Falcons looked pretty toasted right now, but I'm not quite ready to bury them just yet. Carolina is feeling good about themselves and for good reason-- Cam looks poised and calm and their defense is stuffing opposing offenses. But I'm going to ride a hunch here that the Falcons pull the biggest upset of the week....and if not, I like them to cover the number.
Falcons 22, Panthers 21
Minnesota at Dallas: It's just not going to change in Dallas. They are what they are. Talented, maddening, ultimately average. Every time they have a chance to do something above the ordinary at least one unit on their team falls apart. Luckily for the Cowboys, the entire Vikings team is falling apart and this should be an easy bounce back win for the Boys.
Cowboys 31, Vikings 13
New Orleans at New York Jets: One of the reasons I like Rex Ryan is because I believe the team we saw on Sunday in Cincy is actually who these Jets are-- but more often than not, Rex finds a way to get a maximum effort out of them that sometimes manifests itself in big wins. I have a feeling things are about to catch up to them though. Saints are locked in and I don't think a letdown is likely here.
Saints 30, Jets 19
Tennessee at St. Louis: Total yawnfest...two of the most boring and plodding offenses in the league. The Rams defense did everything they could to snag the upset over Seattle on Monday, but Kellen Clemons and friends could only muster three field goals in return. It was an inspired performance from their defense and I wonder if they will be able to replicate it on Sunday following such a crushing loss. This game looks ugly to me, but I think it will be uglier for the home team.
Titans 17, Rams 13
Kansas City at Buffalo: Call me a hater if you like, but the Chiefs are the least impressive 8-0 team in NFL history. Now, if I was Chiefs fan I certainly wouldn't give a damn and I'd be dancing in the streets. Andy Reid is doing a phenomenal job and that defense is legit, but I am far from sold that this team is a Super Bowl contender. The eight wins have come against the Jags, Raiders, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, Titans, and Browns. Five of them have been played in KC. None of those teams are above .500 and only one (Dallas) is at .500. The only road games were in Jacksonville, Philly, and Tennessee. The Chiefs are playing consistently solid football which is more than most teams in the league can say, but they haven't been tested yet. This week, another team with a losing record awaits, but I do think this will be their toughest road test and I'll roll the dice and say the scrappy Bills pull one off.
Bills 20, Chiefs 17
San Diego at Washington: Very confusing performance from RG3 on the heels of his excellent effort against the Bears. In Denver he looked skittish, erratic, and indecisive from the outset. And when he did make a good read or a tough throw, his WR's promptly dropped the ball. It was an all around terrible effort from the Redskins offense on a day when their defense played as well as could possibly be expected against the best offense in football. The Redskins have yet to put all three phases together in the same game this year, but they are showing blips and flashes here and there. It's an iffy bet, but my money is on the Redskins getting their act together a bit against a Chargers team I believe is a touch over-valued.
Redskins 27, Chargers 23
Philadelphia at Oakland: This is panic button time in Philly. No one expected miracles from Chip Kelly in his first year in the NFL. But it would certainly appear as if it only took a matter of weeks for defensive coordinators to figure out how to stop his attack. If it was coming and going it would be one thing, but the fact that the Eagles offense has been completely stymied at home the past two weeks is troubling to say the least. It's hard to see it improving against a very solid Raiders defensive front.
Raiders 23, Eagles 19
Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Seahawks could challenge the Chiefs in the easy schedule department. It's a good thing because there might only be three or four teams in the NFL the Seahawks could have beaten Monday night and they were fortunate enough to be playing one of them. Seattle's offense is banged up and that is certainly part of the problem, but they also lack playmakers and lost Sidney Rice for the season. Looks like the defense and heroics from Russell Wilson will have to carry them-- but at 7-1, they've put themselves in a great position to survive until some reinforcements arrive.
Seahawks 27, Bucs 9
Baltimore at Cleveland: This is my 50/50 game of the week... Jason Campbell is an upgrade from Brandon Weeden and he will keep the Browns offense from completely detonating every week, but he also won't ever push them over the top when they need a big play to win the game. If Cleveland wants to win, their defense is going to have to carry them. Baltimore is desperate at this point as a loss may very well end their repeat hopes midway through the season. Not afraid to admit that I'm pretty clueless on this one.
Ravens 20, Browns 19
Pittsburgh at New England: The cold, harsh reality is that the Steelers just aren't very good. The defense looks stable, albeit unspectacular. But offensively, the OL is subpar and they have NO weapons for Big Ben. He is being forced to run for his life AND make his own plays-- it is asking too much and I don't see how Pittsburgh winds up with more than 6 wins this year. The Patriots are getting it done with duct tape, but that almost seems to be the way Belichick likes it.
Patriots 25, Steelers 17
Indianapolis at Houston: If it is ever going to happen for the Texans this year, it is going to have to be on Sunday Night. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare, but the game is clearly more urgent for Houston. As incredible as Andrew Luck has been since the day he stepped on the field, I do wonder if the loss of Reggie Wayne is going to cripple their offense. I think their offense struggles in their first outing without the veteran leader and the Texans keep their season alive.
Texans 24, Colts 20
Chicago at Green Bay: I was dead wrong about the Packers this year. I predicted them to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL and finish in third place in their division. I said I thought Rodgers was the best QB in football, but that their other deficiencies would catch up to them. They haven't. The Packers have been solid across the board and Rodgers is just insanely good-- very possible he is the best QB I have ever seen. The Bears make this one interesting, but they can't keep up.
Packers 34, Bears 24
Against the Spread (Lock listed first):
1. Texans (+2.5) vs. Colts
2. Falcons (+7.5) at Panthers
3. Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Vikings
4. Bills (+3) vs. Chiefs
Last Week: 11-2
ATS: 15-16-1 (Last Week: 4-0)
Lock: 3-5
Redskins: 6-1
Finally, a perfect week ATS... I've been trending up the past few weeks, with a couple of bad beats mixed in. Still off the pace from previous years, but hopefully this was the start of a run. I thought the Bengals were a lock to crush the Jets and it played out exactly in that fashion. As a matter of fact, all 4 of the games I picked ATS covered easily this week. Also predicted a mild upset SU with the Raiders beating the Steelers.
.
This Week:
Cincinnati at Miami: The Bengals might be figuring things out. And if they are, I actually favor them to win the AFC because their roster is the deepest and most talented in the conference. The biggest lingering question is whether or not Andy Dalton can go toe to toe in a playoff game with a counterpart like Peyton or Brady. I still have my doubts, but if he continues to have performances like he did last week, those doubts will slowly be eased. The Bengals are the superior team here by a mile, but I do worry about the short week and the desperation factor for Miami. I also still want to see Cincy avoid the puzzling letdown losses that have plagued them before I go overboard in my praise.
Bengals 24, Dolphins 21
Atlanta at Carolina: Falcons looked pretty toasted right now, but I'm not quite ready to bury them just yet. Carolina is feeling good about themselves and for good reason-- Cam looks poised and calm and their defense is stuffing opposing offenses. But I'm going to ride a hunch here that the Falcons pull the biggest upset of the week....and if not, I like them to cover the number.
Falcons 22, Panthers 21
Minnesota at Dallas: It's just not going to change in Dallas. They are what they are. Talented, maddening, ultimately average. Every time they have a chance to do something above the ordinary at least one unit on their team falls apart. Luckily for the Cowboys, the entire Vikings team is falling apart and this should be an easy bounce back win for the Boys.
Cowboys 31, Vikings 13
New Orleans at New York Jets: One of the reasons I like Rex Ryan is because I believe the team we saw on Sunday in Cincy is actually who these Jets are-- but more often than not, Rex finds a way to get a maximum effort out of them that sometimes manifests itself in big wins. I have a feeling things are about to catch up to them though. Saints are locked in and I don't think a letdown is likely here.
Saints 30, Jets 19
Tennessee at St. Louis: Total yawnfest...two of the most boring and plodding offenses in the league. The Rams defense did everything they could to snag the upset over Seattle on Monday, but Kellen Clemons and friends could only muster three field goals in return. It was an inspired performance from their defense and I wonder if they will be able to replicate it on Sunday following such a crushing loss. This game looks ugly to me, but I think it will be uglier for the home team.
Titans 17, Rams 13
Kansas City at Buffalo: Call me a hater if you like, but the Chiefs are the least impressive 8-0 team in NFL history. Now, if I was Chiefs fan I certainly wouldn't give a damn and I'd be dancing in the streets. Andy Reid is doing a phenomenal job and that defense is legit, but I am far from sold that this team is a Super Bowl contender. The eight wins have come against the Jags, Raiders, Eagles, Giants, Cowboys, Texans, Titans, and Browns. Five of them have been played in KC. None of those teams are above .500 and only one (Dallas) is at .500. The only road games were in Jacksonville, Philly, and Tennessee. The Chiefs are playing consistently solid football which is more than most teams in the league can say, but they haven't been tested yet. This week, another team with a losing record awaits, but I do think this will be their toughest road test and I'll roll the dice and say the scrappy Bills pull one off.
Bills 20, Chiefs 17
San Diego at Washington: Very confusing performance from RG3 on the heels of his excellent effort against the Bears. In Denver he looked skittish, erratic, and indecisive from the outset. And when he did make a good read or a tough throw, his WR's promptly dropped the ball. It was an all around terrible effort from the Redskins offense on a day when their defense played as well as could possibly be expected against the best offense in football. The Redskins have yet to put all three phases together in the same game this year, but they are showing blips and flashes here and there. It's an iffy bet, but my money is on the Redskins getting their act together a bit against a Chargers team I believe is a touch over-valued.
Redskins 27, Chargers 23
Philadelphia at Oakland: This is panic button time in Philly. No one expected miracles from Chip Kelly in his first year in the NFL. But it would certainly appear as if it only took a matter of weeks for defensive coordinators to figure out how to stop his attack. If it was coming and going it would be one thing, but the fact that the Eagles offense has been completely stymied at home the past two weeks is troubling to say the least. It's hard to see it improving against a very solid Raiders defensive front.
Raiders 23, Eagles 19
Tampa Bay at Seattle: The Seahawks could challenge the Chiefs in the easy schedule department. It's a good thing because there might only be three or four teams in the NFL the Seahawks could have beaten Monday night and they were fortunate enough to be playing one of them. Seattle's offense is banged up and that is certainly part of the problem, but they also lack playmakers and lost Sidney Rice for the season. Looks like the defense and heroics from Russell Wilson will have to carry them-- but at 7-1, they've put themselves in a great position to survive until some reinforcements arrive.
Seahawks 27, Bucs 9
Baltimore at Cleveland: This is my 50/50 game of the week... Jason Campbell is an upgrade from Brandon Weeden and he will keep the Browns offense from completely detonating every week, but he also won't ever push them over the top when they need a big play to win the game. If Cleveland wants to win, their defense is going to have to carry them. Baltimore is desperate at this point as a loss may very well end their repeat hopes midway through the season. Not afraid to admit that I'm pretty clueless on this one.
Ravens 20, Browns 19
Pittsburgh at New England: The cold, harsh reality is that the Steelers just aren't very good. The defense looks stable, albeit unspectacular. But offensively, the OL is subpar and they have NO weapons for Big Ben. He is being forced to run for his life AND make his own plays-- it is asking too much and I don't see how Pittsburgh winds up with more than 6 wins this year. The Patriots are getting it done with duct tape, but that almost seems to be the way Belichick likes it.
Patriots 25, Steelers 17
Indianapolis at Houston: If it is ever going to happen for the Texans this year, it is going to have to be on Sunday Night. Both teams have had two weeks to prepare, but the game is clearly more urgent for Houston. As incredible as Andrew Luck has been since the day he stepped on the field, I do wonder if the loss of Reggie Wayne is going to cripple their offense. I think their offense struggles in their first outing without the veteran leader and the Texans keep their season alive.
Texans 24, Colts 20
Chicago at Green Bay: I was dead wrong about the Packers this year. I predicted them to be the biggest disappointment in the NFL and finish in third place in their division. I said I thought Rodgers was the best QB in football, but that their other deficiencies would catch up to them. They haven't. The Packers have been solid across the board and Rodgers is just insanely good-- very possible he is the best QB I have ever seen. The Bears make this one interesting, but they can't keep up.
Packers 34, Bears 24
Against the Spread (Lock listed first):
1. Texans (+2.5) vs. Colts
2. Falcons (+7.5) at Panthers
3. Cowboys (-10.5) vs. Vikings
4. Bills (+3) vs. Chiefs
